Finnish President Alexander Stubb Talks Greenland

Summary

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Podcast Summary: Bloomberg Talks – Finnish President Alexander Stubb Talks Greenland

Date: January 20, 2026
Host: Bloomberg
Guest: President Alexander Stubb (with frequent references to President Sauli Niinistö and global figures)
Location: Davos, World Economic Forum

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Overview

This episode delves into the recent diplomatic tensions over Greenland, involving the United States, European allies, and the broader security implications for the Arctic region. Finnish President Alexander Stubb provides candid insights into the ongoing conversations and misunderstandings, especially related to President Trump’s approach, European military activity in Greenland, and the wider ramifications for Russia, China, and transatlantic relations. The discussion is set against the backdrop of the World Economic Forum in Davos, where high-stakes diplomatic negotiations are underway.

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Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. Greenland Tensions and Unusual Diplomacy (00:46–03:47)

• US President's Assertive Stance Linked to Nobel Peace Prize
  • President Stubb confirms that President Trump tied frustrations over not winning the Nobel Peace Prize to escalating US rhetoric around Greenland ([01:26]).
  • This form of “frank diplomacy” is described as normal in back-channel discussions, though the interviewer questions its appropriateness.

"This is quite normal in our engagements behind the scenes, and it’s good that we have these conversations."
— President Stubb [01:29]

• Need to De-escalate and Build Arctic Security
  • Stubb stresses de-escalation and creating a process to reinforce Arctic security, proposing even a NATO summit in Ankara ([01:54–02:40]).
  • Identifies Finland’s strong position as an Arctic and military power.

"What we need to do is to bring down the temperature. We need to find an off ramp and probably create some kind of a process which will strengthen Arctic security…"
— President Stubb [01:59]

2. Military Activity in Greenland: Misunderstanding and Clarification (05:05–06:06)

• European Troop Movements Misconstrued by the US
  • Stubb clarifies that recent European deployments to Greenland are part of routine NATO training (“Arctic Endurance”), not a defense posture against the US ([05:20–06:06]).

"There is something called Arctic Endurance, which is basically a NATO training exercise... This is completely normal procedure... it is not trying to protect anything westbound. It’s more eastbound."
— President Stubb [05:26]

3. Finland’s Role, Trump’s Negotiating Style, and “Sauna Diplomacy” (03:29–05:01; 06:06–07:41)

• Transactional Diplomacy and Finns’ Approach
  • Stubb draws parallels to previous Trump tactics (e.g., on NATO), suggesting current aggressive moves may be a form of brinkmanship ([03:29–03:47]).
  • He downplays the idea that he is a “Trump whisperer,” emphasizing that diplomacy is more about personal engagement than state agendas ([06:15]).

"I have no illusions about being a Trump whisperer... I throw out a couple of ideas. Sometimes he likes them, sometimes he doesn’t…"
— President Stubb [06:15]

• Sauna and Ice Bath Metaphor
  • Offers a light-hearted yet telling Finnish coping mechanism for diplomatic stress:

"In these kinds of situations, you take a deep breath, you go in the sauna and you take an ice bath. And that’s what we’re missing."
— President Stubb [04:31]

4. Risks of Public Diplomacy and Russian/Chinese Opportunism (07:41–09:48)

• Visibility of Tensions Benefits Adversaries
  • Stubb warns that public disagreements among allies only serve Russian information warfare objectives. He cites a provocative tweet by Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov ([07:54]).

"Any time there is a diplomatic issue... between us, the transatlantic partners, I’m sure that the Kremlin is enjoying it. I mean, and they will use it as they best can."
— President Stubb [07:54]

• Strategic Risks Regarding Russia and China
  • Emphasizes transatlantic unity—to avoid pushing allies toward Russia or China.
  • Urges Europe to strengthen itself and acknowledges the growing importance of the Global South ([08:49–09:48]).

"My big thesis is that it’s going to be the global south that decides the new world order."
— President Stubb [09:29]

5. Ukraine Negotiations and US–Russia Red Lines (09:48–11:37)

• Ukraine Dossier Overshadowed by Greenland Crisis
  • Stubb worries the Greenland issue will divert attention from Ukraine negotiations ([10:05]), but notes progress in achieving common positions among Ukraine, the US, and Europe.

"The good news is that Ukraine, the United States and the coalition of the willing or Europe, we are on the same page. The big question is, are the Russians? I’m quite skeptical about that."
— President Stubb [10:44]

• On US Sanctions and Putin’s Credibility
  • Praises Trump’s sanctions on Russian energy firms; insists Putin lied to Trump regarding attacks on his dacha ([11:11–11:37]).

"Putin lied to President Trump about the drones hitting his dacha. They fired ballistic missiles. So this is something that certainly will shorten the fuse of the President of the United States."
— President Stubb [11:18]

6. Predictions for Davos and World Outlook (11:37–End)

• Short-term Forecast
  • Stubb expects the Greenland issue to de-escalate and progress on Ukraine by week’s end—but notes geopolitical tensions will remain ([11:46]).

"I think we will have defused the Greenland issue. I think we will have made progress on Ukraine, and I am 100% sure that the world will not be finished by then."
— President Stubb [11:46]

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Sauna Diplomacy
  Metaphorically encapsulates Finland’s grounded, steady approach to stress and negotiation ([04:31]).

• On Information Warfare
  Sharp insight into how Russian disinformation operates when transatlantic allies disagree ([07:54]).

• On the Global South’s Role
  Visionary note about shifting geopolitics and the need for broader engagement beyond US–EU ties ([09:29]).

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Timestamps for Key Segments

• Tying Nobel Peace Prize to Greenland Rhetoric: 01:26–01:54
• Need for Arctic Security & De-escalation: 01:54–02:40
• Parallel to Trump’s NATO Tactics: 03:29–03:47
• Sauna and Ice Bath Approach: 04:31
• Clarification About Troops in Greenland: 05:20–06:06
• Trump Whisperer/Diplomatic Process: 06:15
• Russian Opportunism: 07:54–08:35
• Global South and New World Order: 09:29
• Ukraine Negotiations: 10:05–11:05
• Putin, Sanctions, and Red Lines: 11:11–11:37
• Davos Short-term Forecast: 11:46

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Summary

President Alexander Stubb provides a window into the complexity, misunderstandings, and personal nuances of Arctic and transatlantic diplomacy. While tensions around Greenland dominated headlines, Stubb’s composed, pragmatic approach—underpinned by “sauna diplomacy”—stands out, as does his insistence on unity against adversarial information warfare. He foresees immediate de-escalation and progress on Ukraine, but his tone is realistic: geopolitics remains as turbulent as ever, and the world will continue to turn well after Davos wraps.

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Transcript

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[Bloomberg Host]

Bloomberg Audio.

[President Sauli Niinistö]

Studios Podcasts Radio News Are Things Going to Settle Down?

[Bloomberg Interviewer]

The President threatening to impose additional tariffs on some European allies supporting Denmark while he pursues Greenland. The Finland President, Alexander Stubbe, joins us now for more. Mr. President, good to see you.

[President Sauli Niinistö]

Nice to see you.

[Bloomberg Interviewer]

Thanks for always making some time for us. Look, I would never traditionally start a conversation like this with the head of state, but given the news flow and the headlines and the pictures of texts we've seen over the past few days, I have to get a better understanding from you directly. I understand you were on an exchange with the President of the United States where the president almost explicitly linked his failure to win the Nobel Peace Prize with a more assertive stance on Greenland. Did that actually happen?

[President Sauli Niinistö]

Well, yeah. I mean, we do message a lot with the president, and sometimes I message together with the Prime Minister of Norway, Jonas Gardster. So yes, the response was, as has been reported, and this is what frank diplomacy is all about. This is quite normal in our engagements behind the scenes, and it's good that we have these conversations.

[Bloomberg Interviewer]

You'd have to forgive me, but for many people, they don't feel that it's normal to connect the failure to win a prize with a more assertive stance over someone else's territory.

[President Sauli Niinistö]

It is normal to have direct talks, of course, on the Greenland issue. I disagree with the president. I think now what we need to do is to bring down the temperature. We need to find an off ramp and probably create some kind of a process which will strengthen Arctic security and sort of at the end of the tunnel. I wish we could have a NATO summit in Ankara where we all agree on a new Arctic security structure. I come from an Arctic country. I come from a country which has one of the biggest militaries in Europe. I come from a country which has the best know how in Arctic defense. So these are the types of world things that we need to work with with the alliance, including the United States.

[Bloomberg Analyst]

President Trump has been talking about Greenland since 2019 what makes it different this time? What is an off ramp actually look like?

[President Sauli Niinistö]

I think there's a short term scenario here and there's long term. Short term is to basically de escalate the language. And I hope we'll see some of that here in Davos here today, tomorrow and the day after tomorrow. And then the second one is a long term strategic thinking on. Okay, is this an issue of sovereignty or is it an issue of security? I hope that it is an issue of security and then we start looking at how we can beef up security in the Arctic region. Now, the latest conversations that I've had about this subject in the past two to three hours, this is how fast things are changing in the new foreign policy world gives me a little bit of hope that we'll find a way.

[Bloomberg Analyst]

It feels like a live negotiation. The President, a lot of the time does come out with something very aggressive to get to an end point, which really is just a better deal. I liken this to Naito. At one point there was reports, wants to pull out Naito, but really, at the end of the day, he wanted Europe to spend more. Is that how you view this through that lens?

[President Sauli Niinistö]

Well, first of all, the President of the United States has a capacity to deal with the multiplicity of issues at the same time. I mean, you only look at what's happened this year. Venezuela, Iran, Greenland, Gaza, the peace board and many other things at the same time. And of course, add on to that domestic issues. On the NATO issue, if someone would have told me at the 75th anniversary of NATO's in Washington D.C. in 2024, I think it was that we are looking at increasing our defense expenditure to 5% next year. I would say go and see a doctor or consult the Foreign affairs magazine, because this is not going to happen. Now, if at the end of the day, after this, what could be called rhetorical escalation, we come up with a stronger Arctic security, then that is good. And obviously we are seeing foreign policy done in a slightly different way from what we're used to. But, you know, I'm a Finn. I thought you'd ask the first question that, you know, what, what do you do? I said in these kinds of situations, you take a deep breath, you go in the sauna and you take an ice bath. And that's what we're missing. That's what we're missing.

[Bloomberg Analyst]

Embassy sauna, where they have had diplomatic dealings done. It's quite a scene.

[Bloomberg Host]

You could have the ice bath right there. Look, there is this question, Mr. President, about why European nations were sending more troops to Greenland over the past couple of days in the past week. At first it was to beef up and show that they were serious about.

[President Sauli Niinistö]

The security, not what it was about at all.

[Bloomberg Host]

Okay, so, okay, so the way that it was taken by President Trump was to defend from the United States.

[President Sauli Niinistö]

Yeah, I think there was probably a misunderstanding or not. Probably there was. So basically, let me explain. There is something called Arctic Endurance, which is basically a NATO training exercise. That exercise has eight different components, all of which the United States is present. We were asked by our allies to go and do a reconnaissance misses Mission to check out the territory, the landscape and how it's going to work out. This is completely normal procedure and obviously I can't talk about the specifics of that exercise, but trust me, it is not trying to protect anything westbound. It's more eastbound.

[Bloomberg Host]

At what point do you feel like you're just fielding calls because you're thought of as the Trump whisperer? I mean, what are you telling your, your, your, your colleagues and other European nations about how to deal with.

[President Sauli Niinistö]

Mr. Well, I think, you know, diplomacy, a lot of times when people analyze diplomacy, they look at it on a state to state relations, you know, what's the values, interests, power, culture, history, geography, but they forget that a lot of it is actually about person to person engagement. And the fact that I'm able to communicate directly with the president puts me as president of Finland into good position. But I have no illusions about being a Trump whisperer. You know, it's, he's the president of the United States. He decides completely for himself. I throw out a couple of ideas. Sometimes he likes them, sometimes he doesn't. And then I throw ideas to our other European allies and friends. That's what diplomacy is about.

[Bloomberg Interviewer]

When did you last speak?

[President Sauli Niinistö]

We spoke. It was a collective phone call, I think in Paris on the 5th of December or Berlin. I forget when it was, but we were president. Yeah, but that was sort of a.

[Bloomberg Interviewer]

Collective and the last message with each other was in the last, I think.

[President Sauli Niinistö]

It'S been made public.

[Bloomberg Interviewer]

That was the last time you spoke. That's the last time.

[President Sauli Niinistö]

That's the time we messaged.

[Bloomberg Interviewer]

The reason I asked you is I'm trying to gauge whether there was a misunderstanding. It certainly seems like you perceive there was a misunderstanding.

[President Sauli Niinistö]

My perception is that it was a misunderstanding. So now we need to sit down, discuss, get an off ramp, and at the end of the day we need more Arctic security and with European and American presence, this is clear.

[Bloomberg Interviewer]

That clearly played out very Publicly. And you've been transparent about how frank things are often behind the scenes. But given how publicly this has played out, what kind of a message do you think this is sending to the Russians at the moment, the way this is playing out?

[President Sauli Niinistö]

Well, any time there is a diplomatic issue, to put it diplomatically, between us, the transatlantic partners, I'm sure that the Kremlin is enjoying it. I mean, and they will use it as they best can. As we saw, you know, I mean, Foreign Minister of Russia Lavrov puts out a tweet and saying that for. For. For the U.S. greenland is what Crimea is for Russia. And obviously, you know, that's an insult, and we all understand that. So we always have to be careful with the Russians because they will use any moment and any possibility for good old information warfare and propaganda.

[Bloomberg Analyst]

The unintended consequences just creates more of a positive attitude towards Russia and China and divides the transatlantic relationship. How big of a concern is that? Especially after we just saw Mark Carney go over to Beijing and say they have this new strategic partnership.

[President Sauli Niinistö]

Yeah, I mean, I think, you know, I'm very pro European, I'm very pro American, and I'm a transatlanticist. So it is in my interests and also based on my values that we have a closer relationship with the United States. That's why I'm also very pragmatic. I understand that the United States is the number one superpower. And what we need to avoid, of course, is a certain disengagement. At the same time, I have to say that Europe needs to use this moment as well. You know, it needs to beef up its defence. It needs to get stronger economically. And I think, you know, my big thesis is that it's going to be the global south that decides the new world order. So that means that we need to engage more with the likes of India. I really like the free trade agreement that the EU forged with Mercosur. And I think people will start looking a little bit elsewhere, but I really still want to contain and bring back the US as best we can on.

[Bloomberg Analyst]

Top of Russia on that conversation. I've been told those discussions are going very well between the United States and China, Ukrainians, United States and the Russians. Kril Dmitriev reportedly is here having a conversation with Steve Wyckoff today. How much longer do you think it will take to get that deal done? Do you think Putin even wants a deal?

[President Sauli Niinistö]

Okay, so two observations on this. The first one is that I'm afraid that the Greenland issue will take all the oxygen here in Davos from the Ukraine dossier, which I still think is. Is fundamentally important, acute. But the second point is good news. I think ever since Jared Kushner came in to the game actually in Geneva right after the G20 summit and we had another meeting in Berlin and then in Paris, we have a lot of more practicality. So we basically have depends on how you count six documents or two points or two plus five documents. The good news is that Ukraine, the United States and the coalition of the willing or Europe, we are on the same page. The big question is, are the Russians? I'm quite skeptical about that. You know, I think we might get a deal on security arrangements, we might get a deal on territory, certainly on the prosperity package. I'm quite hopeful that we'll get something here this week. But then the Russians will say nyet.

[Bloomberg Analyst]

Well, if Russia continues to drag the United States along. Do you have a sense of what Trump's red line is with Putin?

[President Sauli Niinistö]

I'm not going to start interpreting the red lines of the President of the United States, but I have to say that I really like what he did on Luke Oil and Rosneft on the sanctions. And to be honest, I mean, Putin lied to President Trump about the drones hitting his dacha. They fired ballistic missiles. So this is something that certainly will shorten the fuse of the President of the United States. And it of course depends on how much carrots do you put before you hit with the big stick.

[Bloomberg Interviewer]

Just a final question we often ask, I guess, for forecasts at the World Economic Forum. I'm not going to ask for a long term one. What do you think will be at the end of this week?

[President Sauli Niinistö]

I think we will have defused the Greenland issue. I think we will have made progress on Ukraine, and I am 100% sure that the world will not be finished by then.

[Bloomberg Interviewer]

Mr. President, thanks for your time.

[President Sauli Niinistö]

Thanks.

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