Podcast Summary: Bloomberg Talks

Episode: Former St Louis Fed President Jim Bullard Talks Warsh's Nomination Process
Date: March 11, 2026
Host: Bloomberg

Episode Overview

In this episode, Bloomberg sits down with former St. Louis Federal Reserve President Jim Bullard to discuss the challenges surrounding Kevin Warsh’s nomination for Fed chair amid ongoing political contention. The conversation centers on the implications of a stalled Fed board, the economic impact of rising oil prices fueled by international conflict, and whether the US Federal Reserve is likely to respond with rate hikes. Bullard draws on historical context and current market signals to temper concerns about inflation and economic stability.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Challenging Nomination Process for Kevin Warsh

• Host opens the discussion by framing the political reality: Senator Thom Tillis supports nominee Kevin Warsh but continues to block all Fed nominations pending the outcome of a criminal probe into current Chair Jay Powell.
• Jim Bullard (00:59): "He's got to get through the nomination process first... I don't think anything's going to happen. So nobody is going to be on the Fed board anytime soon."
  • Bullard suggests the nomination is stalled and unlikely to move forward without a deal between the administration and Congress.
  • He notes a lack of active negotiation to resolve the impasse.

2. Comparison with Past Fed Nominations and Economic Response

• Host (01:22): Recalls the previous delay in nominating Jay Powell for a second term, implying it hindered the Fed’s ability to respond to inflation after the pandemic.
• Bullard responds to concerns about the current situation:
  • "It's always, always critical, always, lots of, lots of interesting things going on, I would say, about this shock. It's not like the 70s." (01:57)
  • He notes the differences—especially that the US is now a leading oil producer, unlike during the 1970s oil shocks.

3. Economic Impact of Current Oil Shocks

• Bullard argues the threat of recession from oil price increases is "probably smaller than it would have otherwise been" thanks to the US's oil production. (01:57)
• The Fed primarily focuses on core inflation—which excludes food and energy—so direct moves in oil prices might not prompt immediate action.
  • "The Fed looks through oil price Shocks anyway... there's only a small effect on core inflation from this." (01:57)
• The real risk is if "inflation expectations would start to rise because markets would start to think that the Fed was going to accommodate this shock, which is what happened in the 70s." Bullard suggests this scenario is less likely today.

4. US Economic Resilience

• Interviewer (03:08): Asks Bullard why he remains confident about US economic momentum.
• Bullard (03:21): Points out:
  • Higher oil prices in history, e.g., in 2008, and that the US economy weathered those.
  • Being a leading oil producer offers the US "supply side offsetting some of that."
  • The market focus is rightly on "how long would this conflict continue to go on? ... US could withdraw at any point."
• Bullard sees less risk of sustained damage than many fear.

5. Global Central Bank Responses to Oil Shock

• Interviewer (04:13): Notes that the ECB and Bank of England may respond with rate hikes due to high oil prices, asking if the Fed will face similar pressures.
• Bullard (04:29):
  • Unlikely that the Fed will hike in response to oil alone, "more likely scenarios that they just stay on hold longer...to send a signal that they want to keep inflation under control."
  • Again, emphasizes that "inflation expectations... matter more than oil price movements directly."

6. Practical Inflation Effects on Consumers and Fed Policy

• Interviewer (04:55): Draws attention to rising costs for transportation, airline surcharges, and general consumer gas prices.
• Bullard (05:20):
  • Acknowledges pain for consumers: "people are really paying these things. It really does matter. Yes."
  • Reminds that "the committee looks at core inflation... they're not going to react to movements in food and energy prices."
  • The Fed relies more on measures like core PCE or the Dallas Fed’s trimmed mean inflation indexes to guide policy.
  • "When you're trying to make policy for the medium term, you've got to look through some of it."

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On the nomination process:

  • “I don’t think anything’s going to happen. So nobody is going to be on the Fed board anytime soon.” – Jim Bullard, 00:59

• On current versus 1970s oil shocks:

  • “This is not like the 70s… the US is a leading oil producer today and weren’t at that time. So I think the recession threat from this shock is probably smaller...” – Jim Bullard, 01:57

• On consumer anxiety over gas prices:

  • “Gas prices are certainly something we all pay every day. So that has acted like a tax in the past. But you’ve also got the supply side… which is offsetting some of that.” – Jim Bullard, 03:21

• On Fed’s likely response to oil-driven inflation:

  • “I think the more likely scenario is that they just stay on hold longer… inflation expectations probably… matter more than the oil price movements directly.” – Jim Bullard, 04:29

• On real-world versus core measures:

  • “Sure, yeah, people are really paying these things. It really does matter. Yes. But when you’re trying to make policy for the medium term, you’ve got to look through some of it.” – Jim Bullard, 05:20

Timestamps for Key Segments

• 00:36 — Setting the stage: Warsh’s nomination and political hurdles
• 00:59 — Bullard on the stalled nomination process
• 01:22 — Host links delays in Fed appointments to earlier monetary policy missteps
• 01:57 — Bullard compares current shock to the 1970s and explains recession risk
• 03:08 — Interviewer queries Bullard’s confidence in US economic resilience
• 03:21 — Bullard on oil prices, US as a producer, and market focus
• 04:13 — International central bank comparisons; Fed’s likely strategy
• 04:55 — Impact of oil prices on consumer costs, and Fed’s focus on core inflation
• 05:20 — Bullard on policy outlook and real-world inflation effects

Overall Tone

Jim Bullard remains measured and practical, advocating for a nuanced understanding of inflation and appropriately cautious policy intervention. The dialogue is informed and non-alarmist, with Bullard frequently distinguishing between the real pain felt by consumers and the broader, more structural considerations that drive Federal Reserve policymaking.