Former US Ambassador to Venezuela Patrick Duddy Talks Venezuela

Summary

Bloomberg Talks: Former US Ambassador to Venezuela Patrick Duddy Talks Venezuela

Date: January 6, 2026
Guest: Patrick Duddy, Visiting Senior Lecturer at Duke University & Former US Ambassador to Venezuela
Host: Bloomberg

---

Episode Overview

In this episode, Bloomberg speaks with Patrick Duddy, former US Ambassador to Venezuela, about the dramatic events leading to the ouster of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro and his wife. The conversation explores US motives in the region, the legacy of authoritarianism in Venezuela, the collapse of its oil industry, and the complexities of fostering stability and political transition. Duddy offers historical context and a candid assessment of US policy, referencing pitfalls from past interventions.

---

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Dramatic Weekend: Maduro's Ouster

• US Military Buildup: Interview opens by noting the ramped-up US military presence in the southern Caribbean and the recent forceful actions signaling seriousness to the Maduro regime.
• Surprise Level:
  • Patrick Duddy (01:42): “No, I was not [surprised]. It was evident for some time that the force… was larger than what might have been necessary if the only mission had been to blow up drug boats. …It should have signaled to the Maduro regime that President Trump was not joking. This was not a bluff.”
• Port Facility Strike: Duddy highlights that striking the port sent a clear, deadly serious message, foreshadowing direct action against Maduro.

2. Dissecting US Motivation in Venezuela

• Regime Change, Drugs, or Oil?
  • Host (02:51): Is the US after regime change, fighting drug trafficking, or simply interested in oil?
  • Patrick Duddy (03:13): “I think it's a combination of almost all of those factors.”
  • He notes international rejection of Maduro’s legitimacy by democratic countries and points to a lost, “overwhelmingly” negative election result for Maduro.
  • Venezuela’s authoritarian slide led to mass repression and a refugee flight of approximately eight million people.

3. Venezuela’s Ongoing Collapse

• Historical Economic Decline:
  • Patrick Duddy (05:00): “When President Chavez was elected in 1998, Venezuela was producing around 3 million barrels of oil a day. Today, it is barely, and perhaps not even producing a million barrels a day.”
  • Between 2013 and 2023, economy contracted by over 70–75%.
• Oil Sector Neglect:
  • Thousands of skilled workers were fired (circa 18,000 after a strike), devastating the industry.
  • “That sector is dilapidated. There's been incompetently managed, and there has been an enormous outflow of petroleum professionals.” (05:35)

4. The US Path Forward & Policy Comparisons

• Stabilizing Oil and Economy:
  • Trump administration is determined to revive the oil sector, seen as crucial for future national and regional prosperity.
  • “If they can build back the oil sector, it will not only for Venezuela, it will be good for us, it will be good for the region.” (06:37)
• Need for Social Stability:
  • Success depends on social order—a major challenge since, despite the removal of Maduro and his wife, the regime’s apparatus remains.
• Transition Management:
  • Duddy draws explicit parallels with post-invasion Iraq:
  • Patrick Duddy (07:14): “What I believe is the case is that the Trump administration wishes to avoid the kind of mistakes that we and others committed in Iraq after the fall of Saddam Hussein. Central to that was... [the US] essentially dismissed the entire political class as well as all of the military. And what followed was chaos and something that looked awfully like civil war.”
  • US is working with interim president Delta Rodriguez and elements from the previous regime to manage a transition and maintain order.

---

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On US Show of Force (01:42):
  “It should have signaled to the Maduro regime that President Trump was not joking. This was not a bluff.” – Patrick Duddy

• On Venezuela’s Collapse (05:00):
  “Today, it is barely, and perhaps not even producing a million barrels a day. Between 2013 and 2023, the economy contracted more than 70%...” – Patrick Duddy

• On Avoiding ‘Iraq Mistakes’ (07:14):
  “Central to that was the US went in and essentially dismissed the entire political class as well as all of the military. And what followed was chaos and something that looked awfully like civil war.” – Patrick Duddy

---

Important Timestamps

• 01:42: Duddy on US military intentions and the implication of force
• 03:13: Duddy explains US motives—regime change, legitimacy, oil, and drugs
• 05:00: Duddy discusses the collapse of Venezuela’s oil industry and broader economy
• 06:37: How reviving oil could help not just Venezuela but the region
• 07:14: Cautionary comparison: avoiding a repeat of post-Saddam Iraq

---

Tone & Closing Thoughts

The tone is analytical, direct, and pragmatic, with Duddy drawing upon his extensive diplomatic experience for context. There is both hope and caution—hope for stabilization and reconstruction, but realism about ongoing social and political challenges. Duddy stresses the importance of learning from past US interventions to avoid “chaos” and unintended consequences.

---

For listeners interested in US-Latin America relations, energy geopolitics, or the dynamics of political transition in crisis states, this episode provides expert perspective anchored in both history and current events.

Transcript

[Host]

When you buy lg, you get so much more than just an appliance.

[Josh Whalen]

You get more done, more cost savings.

[Host]

More peace of mind and more control because LG appliances are designed to do more like washers and dryers with AI tech to take out the guesswork refrigerators that fit in tight spaces and keep food fresher longer or ranges with precise induction cooking and easy cleanup built in all with the style you want and reliability you can count on so you can get more from your home every day. LG appliances so much more make life easier with LG. See the latest models and savings [e-mail].

[Patrick Duddy]

Bloomberg Audio Studios podcasts Radio News.

[Interviewer]

Chevron lining up a small fleet of ships sailing to Venezuela as the company emerges as the only exporter of the country's oil. Following Maduro's aster this as the White House plans to meet with oil industry executives. Joining us now, I'm pleased to say we have Patrick Duddy. He is a visiting senior lecturer at Duke University and the former US Ambassador to Venezuela for both President Bush and President Obama. Ambassador, fantastic to have you with us. I want to back up a little bit and just talk about what unfolded over the weekend. We know that over the past several months the US Military has really ramped up its presence in the region. But even with that in mind, were you surprised at all to see this weekend raid and the ouster of Nicolas Maduro?

[Patrick Duddy]

No, I was not. It had it was evident for some time that the force which had been deployed to the southern Caribbean was larger than what might have been necessary if the only mission had been to blow up drug boats. Additionally, after the forces in the Caribbean struck that port facility the other day, a couple of days before the apprehension of Nicolas Maduro and his wife, it was my view that signaled to really the entire region and it should have signaled to the to the Maduro regime that President Trump was not joking. This was not a bluff. And in striking the port, he had, he that is to say, President Trump had made clear his willingness to to go further.

[Interviewer]

Yes, certainly. Now with the benefit of hindsight, we can say that this was not a bluff on the part of President Trump. And I would love to hear your thoughts on what the motivation is here. What is the US Trying to accomplish? Is this about pursuing a regime change in Venezuela? Is this about drug trafficking or is it as simple as oil? What do you make of it?

[Patrick Duddy]

Well, I think it's a combination of almost all of those factors. What I would suggest is that it is important to understand the nature of the regime, the Trump administration has said repeatedly, this is not a legitimate government, and that is actually accurate. The government, the Maduro regime, was not recognized as legitimate by most of the democratic nations in the world. They walked away from the most recent electoral exercise, which they lost overwhelmingly. And as their legitimacy evaporated, the regime became increasingly, increasingly authoritarian and repressive. This resulted in, among other things, 8 million refugees, 8 million Venezuelans fled their country.

[Host]

Yeah.

[Patrick Duddy]

An enormous outflow. And. And not surprisingly, as their illicit economy tanked, illicit activity spiked. And that means drug trafficking.

[Host]

Yeah. I am curious, though, Ambassador, as to what the solution is, because when we talk about Venezuela's problems, this is not something recent. When you were in advising presidents back in the day, I think Chavez was on his second go round as leader of this country. I can't remember a time in my lifetime at, not as an adult where we've seen a viable, stable economic machine in Venezuela. Do you have any hope or faith that it will be different this time with whatever changes are afoot down the pipe?

[Patrick Duddy]

Well, I would say hope, but perhaps not faith. The. You know, when President Chavez was elected in 1998, Venezuela was producing around 3 million barrels of oil a day. Today, it is barely, and perhaps not even producing a million barrels a day. Between 2013 and 2023, the economy contracted more than 70%, some argue as much as 75%. This. This has caused effectively chaos on the ground. And I think that what we're seeing with the Trump administration's approach is a determination to revive what has always been the heart and soul of the Venezuelan economy, which is the oil sector. And that sector is dilapidated. There's been incompetently managed, and there has been an enormous outflow of petroleum professionals.

[Host]

Yeah.

[Patrick Duddy]

In fact, many, something like 18,000 of them were fired by President Chavez after a strike in, I believe it was 2002, and then dismissed the entire, virtually the entire workforce in 2003. So I think what the Trump administration has decided is that they can, if they can, build back the oil sector.

[Host]

Yeah.

[Patrick Duddy]

It will not only for Venezuela, it will be good for us, it will be good for the region.

[Host]

Yeah.

[Patrick Duddy]

This is going to require a measure of social stability in Venezuela. And. Okay, that's the challenge of the moment. After all, Maduro, his wife are gone, but the regime is still in place.

[Host]

Well, that's what I'm curious about. I mean, why should we have faith that that stability will come if the people that Trump himself, the Trump administration itself has said we're comfortable with are basically the people who are working under Maduro, do we any sense that they their allegiances would somehow shift away from Maduro and to US Policy?

[Patrick Duddy]

I don't think their allegiances are going to shift. And in particular, Delta Rodriguez, sworn in I think yesterday as the interim president, was a part of Maduro's inner circle. What I think is going on is the the Trump administration has decided to work with some of those people who, who are still in positions of authority to manage a transition. What I believe is the case is that the Trump administration wishes to avoid the kind of mistakes that we and others committed in Iraq after the fall of Saddam Hussein. Central to that was the US Went in and essentially dismissed the entire political class as well as all of the military. And what followed was chaos and something that looked awfully like civil all right.

[Host]

Patrick, we have to leave it there. And that's a great point we should point out Just about an hour ago we had caught up with Richard Haass. Of course he was very instrumental in the march into Iraq and Afghanistan. We'll catch up with you again soon, I'm sure. Ambassador Patrick Dutty there for former US ambassador to Venezuela if you're paying more.

[Josh Whalen]

Than $1 a month for any ED or hair medication, listen up at Joy and Blokes when you start TRT or Enclomiphene, you can add any ED or hair loss prescription for just $1 a month. $1 add ons with your hormone plan and right now all labs are 50 off. I'm Josh Whalen, founder of Joy and Blokes. I built this company because men are tired of paying for fragmented care without results. Every Joy and Blokes lab includes a visit with a licensed clinician who connects your symptoms to your biomarkers. You'll get a real plan that covers hormones, performance and confidence. If you're considering TRT or Enclomiphene, this is the most efficient way to do it. Get [e-mail] and use a promo code podcast new customers get 50% off their labs and for a limited time, you can take advantage of our $1ed or hair loss add ons when you start TRT or Enclomiphene. Not available in all states. Compounded medications are not FDA approved. Learn more at joannblokes. Com.