Bloomberg Talks: Former US Ambassador to Venezuela Patrick Duddy Talks Venezuela

Date: January 6, 2026
Guest: Patrick Duddy, Visiting Senior Lecturer at Duke University & Former US Ambassador to Venezuela
Host: Bloomberg

Episode Overview

In this episode, Bloomberg speaks with Patrick Duddy, former US Ambassador to Venezuela, about the dramatic events leading to the ouster of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro and his wife. The conversation explores US motives in the region, the legacy of authoritarianism in Venezuela, the collapse of its oil industry, and the complexities of fostering stability and political transition. Duddy offers historical context and a candid assessment of US policy, referencing pitfalls from past interventions.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Dramatic Weekend: Maduro's Ouster

• US Military Buildup: Interview opens by noting the ramped-up US military presence in the southern Caribbean and the recent forceful actions signaling seriousness to the Maduro regime.
• Surprise Level:
  • Patrick Duddy (01:42): “No, I was not [surprised]. It was evident for some time that the force… was larger than what might have been necessary if the only mission had been to blow up drug boats. …It should have signaled to the Maduro regime that President Trump was not joking. This was not a bluff.”
• Port Facility Strike: Duddy highlights that striking the port sent a clear, deadly serious message, foreshadowing direct action against Maduro.

2. Dissecting US Motivation in Venezuela

• Regime Change, Drugs, or Oil?
  • Host (02:51): Is the US after regime change, fighting drug trafficking, or simply interested in oil?
  • Patrick Duddy (03:13): “I think it's a combination of almost all of those factors.”
  • He notes international rejection of Maduro’s legitimacy by democratic countries and points to a lost, “overwhelmingly” negative election result for Maduro.
  • Venezuela’s authoritarian slide led to mass repression and a refugee flight of approximately eight million people.

3. Venezuela’s Ongoing Collapse

• Historical Economic Decline:
  • Patrick Duddy (05:00): “When President Chavez was elected in 1998, Venezuela was producing around 3 million barrels of oil a day. Today, it is barely, and perhaps not even producing a million barrels a day.”
  • Between 2013 and 2023, economy contracted by over 70–75%.
• Oil Sector Neglect:
  • Thousands of skilled workers were fired (circa 18,000 after a strike), devastating the industry.
  • “That sector is dilapidated. There's been incompetently managed, and there has been an enormous outflow of petroleum professionals.” (05:35)

4. The US Path Forward & Policy Comparisons

• Stabilizing Oil and Economy:
  • Trump administration is determined to revive the oil sector, seen as crucial for future national and regional prosperity.
  • “If they can build back the oil sector, it will not only for Venezuela, it will be good for us, it will be good for the region.” (06:37)
• Need for Social Stability:
  • Success depends on social order—a major challenge since, despite the removal of Maduro and his wife, the regime’s apparatus remains.
• Transition Management:
  • Duddy draws explicit parallels with post-invasion Iraq:
  • Patrick Duddy (07:14): “What I believe is the case is that the Trump administration wishes to avoid the kind of mistakes that we and others committed in Iraq after the fall of Saddam Hussein. Central to that was... [the US] essentially dismissed the entire political class as well as all of the military. And what followed was chaos and something that looked awfully like civil war.”
  • US is working with interim president Delta Rodriguez and elements from the previous regime to manage a transition and maintain order.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On US Show of Force (01:42):
  “It should have signaled to the Maduro regime that President Trump was not joking. This was not a bluff.” – Patrick Duddy

• On Venezuela’s Collapse (05:00):
  “Today, it is barely, and perhaps not even producing a million barrels a day. Between 2013 and 2023, the economy contracted more than 70%...” – Patrick Duddy

• On Avoiding ‘Iraq Mistakes’ (07:14):
  “Central to that was the US went in and essentially dismissed the entire political class as well as all of the military. And what followed was chaos and something that looked awfully like civil war.” – Patrick Duddy

Important Timestamps

• 01:42: Duddy on US military intentions and the implication of force
• 03:13: Duddy explains US motives—regime change, legitimacy, oil, and drugs
• 05:00: Duddy discusses the collapse of Venezuela’s oil industry and broader economy
• 06:37: How reviving oil could help not just Venezuela but the region
• 07:14: Cautionary comparison: avoiding a repeat of post-Saddam Iraq

Tone & Closing Thoughts

The tone is analytical, direct, and pragmatic, with Duddy drawing upon his extensive diplomatic experience for context. There is both hope and caution—hope for stabilization and reconstruction, but realism about ongoing social and political challenges. Duddy stresses the importance of learning from past US interventions to avoid “chaos” and unintended consequences.

For listeners interested in US-Latin America relations, energy geopolitics, or the dynamics of political transition in crisis states, this episode provides expert perspective anchored in both history and current events.