Bloomberg Talks Podcast: Wilbur Ross on Overthrowing Maduro and the Future of Venezuela

Date: January 5, 2026
Guest: Wilbur Ross, Former US Commerce Secretary & Chairman/CEO, Ross Acquisition Corp II
Host(s): Karen Moscow, Nathan Hager (Bloomberg News)

Episode Overview

This episode dives into the fallout and prospective future for Venezuela following the ouster and capture of Nicolás Maduro. The central theme is the economic, geopolitical, and structural implications of regime change, with a focus on Venezuela’s oil wealth, economic dysfunction, and prospects for recovery. Wilbur Ross, former US Commerce Secretary and renowned corporate restructuring expert, provides a candid, data-driven assessment of how Venezuela could reposition itself post-Maduro and what hurdles remain for international investment and stable governance.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Venezuela’s Untapped Economic Potential

• Oil Reserves and Wealth:
  • Venezuela holds "probably 300 billion barrels of oil of proven reserves. At $50 a barrel, that's $15 trillion of reserves."
  • The country's total debt is "only $160 billion," which pales in comparison to the potential value of oil.
• Production Shortfalls:
  • Due to "poor management, poor maintenance, and running out of parts," oil production is down by over 2 million barrels a day—amounting to "$37 billion a year cost to the economy," a staggering figure for a nation of about 27 million (after 7 million have fled under Maduro).

"[Venezuela] probably have 300 billion barrels of oil of proven reserves. At $50 a barrel, that's $15 trillion of reserves. ... The bigger problem is that because of poor management,... their oil production has gone down by more than 2 million barrels a day. At $50 a barrel, that works out to about $37 billion a year cost to the economy."
— Wilbur Ross [01:15]

• Agricultural Decline:
  • While "agriculture is 25% of the land mass ... only 3% of the economy and only 10% of the labor force.”
  • Reflects broken supply chains, lack of fertilizer, and aging, unmaintained equipment.

"Their equipment, tractors and reapers and things are pretty well broken down. They need spare parts. ... Venezuela had been one of the most verdant soils in all of Latin America."
— Wilbur Ross [02:18]

2. Investment and Capital Recovery Prerequisites

• Rule of Law and Guarantees:
  • "Venezuela has the weakest property rights laws in the whole world. So that has to be fixed... Companies going in now... are probably going to want guarantees against expropriation."
  • US and multinational entities often require such guarantees, as well as foreign exchange assurances.
• Debt Restructuring:
  • The total debt is "about $160 billion," including various sources (Chinese and Russian claims, funded debt, oil-backed debt, etc.), with bonds trading low but restructuring possible at "30 to 40 cents on the dollar."

"I think realistically, companies going in now in a relatively complex situation are probably going to want guarantees against expropriation. ... Those bonds have been trading in the high teens, low 20s. They could probably be restructured in the 30 to 40 cents on the dollar."
— Wilbur Ross [04:50]

• IMF Role:
  • Venezuela currently has "no exposure to IMF," giving space for up to "$50 billion" in IMF lending.

"IMF is entitled to lend up to $50 billion. So they could very well be a source of some funding."
— Wilbur Ross [05:48]

3. Geopolitical Complexity: China, Russia, and Oil

• Chinese & Russian Claims:
  • Both have arranged for debt repayment in oil, "at very advantageous prices," removing the incentive for repayment or transparency.
  • The type of Venezuelan oil ("heavy oil") is suited for certain refineries in China, India, and the US (notably old Citgo refineries).
• Refining and Profitability:
  • While heavy oil is costlier to refine, "anything like $50 a barrel, it's still going to be very, very cheap," suggesting high profitability post-recapitalization.
  • Extraction costs remain low once proper equipment is restored.

"Both the Chinese and the Russians had made loans to Venezuela that are payable at least partly in oil, but oil at very, very advantageous prices to them. ... The oil that comes out of Venezuela is mostly what we call heavy oil."
— Wilbur Ross [06:59]

4. Other Resources and Ongoing Criminality

• Gold Smuggling:
  • Mention of continued illicit activities: "It [Venezuela] has lots of gold, most of which is not being used for lawful purposes," including "transport planes every day flying to Iran with Venezuelan gold."
    — Wilbur Ross [08:47]

5. Political Precedent and the Path Forward

• Risks of Overthrowing a Sitting Head of State:
  • Concern over whether removing Maduro sets an international precedent for other powers to justify similar actions.
• Call for Supervised Elections:
  • Ross defers to "Secretary Rubio" (likely Senator Marco Rubio, prominent on Latin American policy) and endorses the need for "new elections," provided they are "properly supervised" as a possible solution for governance.

"I'm not close enough to what's happening on the ground to figure out exactly how to resolve the political issues. But Secretary Rubio has indicated... that perhaps the ultimate solution... is new elections. And if they're properly supervised, that might well be an answer."
— Wilbur Ross [09:22]

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Venezuela’s unrealized potential:

  "They could probably be restructured in the 30 to 40 cents on the dollar. So in the overall context, that's not a very big number."
  — Wilbur Ross [05:44]

• On criminal use of resources:

  "It has lots of gold, most of which is not being used for lawful purposes."
  — Wilbur Ross [08:47]

• On the political aftermath:

  "Does removing a sitting head of state on criminal grounds create a precedent that we have to live with later? Do other great powers now reserve that right for themselves as well?"
  — Nathan Hager [09:05]

Segment Timestamps

• [01:15] – Economic Overview & Oil Wealth
• [02:18] – Agriculture’s Collapse & Migration
• [04:50] – Rule of Law, Property Rights, and Investment Guarantees
• [05:48] – IMF and Debt Restructuring
• [06:59] – China, Russia, and the Heavy Oil Market
• [08:47] – Gold Smuggling/Illicit Activities
• [09:05] – Precedent and Governance
• [09:22] – Need for Supervised Elections

Summary & Takeaways

Wilbur Ross provides a pragmatic and technical assessment of Venezuela’s potential for recovery following Maduro’s capture. He underscores that while the country’s raw resources are monumental, unlocking them requires sweeping reforms: restoration of rule of law, protection of property rights, addressing a convoluted debt situation, and navigating global power interests, especially those of China and Russia. Ross is measured about the political road ahead but sees "properly supervised elections" as a credible path forward. The episode delivers a rare mix of hard numbers, policy realism, and candid discussion about the stakes of regime change in a resource-rich but beleaguered nation.