Former US Commerce Secretary & Ross Acquisition Corp II Chairman & CEO Wilbur Ross Talks Overthrowing Maduro

Summary

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Bloomberg Talks Podcast: Wilbur Ross on Overthrowing Maduro and the Future of Venezuela

Date: January 5, 2026
Guest: Wilbur Ross, Former US Commerce Secretary & Chairman/CEO, Ross Acquisition Corp II
Host(s): Karen Moscow, Nathan Hager (Bloomberg News)

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Episode Overview

This episode dives into the fallout and prospective future for Venezuela following the ouster and capture of Nicolás Maduro. The central theme is the economic, geopolitical, and structural implications of regime change, with a focus on Venezuela’s oil wealth, economic dysfunction, and prospects for recovery. Wilbur Ross, former US Commerce Secretary and renowned corporate restructuring expert, provides a candid, data-driven assessment of how Venezuela could reposition itself post-Maduro and what hurdles remain for international investment and stable governance.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Venezuela’s Untapped Economic Potential

• Oil Reserves and Wealth:
  • Venezuela holds "probably 300 billion barrels of oil of proven reserves. At $50 a barrel, that's $15 trillion of reserves."
  • The country's total debt is "only $160 billion," which pales in comparison to the potential value of oil.
• Production Shortfalls:
  • Due to "poor management, poor maintenance, and running out of parts," oil production is down by over 2 million barrels a day—amounting to "$37 billion a year cost to the economy," a staggering figure for a nation of about 27 million (after 7 million have fled under Maduro).

"[Venezuela] probably have 300 billion barrels of oil of proven reserves. At $50 a barrel, that's $15 trillion of reserves. ... The bigger problem is that because of poor management,... their oil production has gone down by more than 2 million barrels a day. At $50 a barrel, that works out to about $37 billion a year cost to the economy."
— Wilbur Ross [01:15]

• Agricultural Decline:
  • While "agriculture is 25% of the land mass ... only 3% of the economy and only 10% of the labor force.”
  • Reflects broken supply chains, lack of fertilizer, and aging, unmaintained equipment.

"Their equipment, tractors and reapers and things are pretty well broken down. They need spare parts. ... Venezuela had been one of the most verdant soils in all of Latin America."
— Wilbur Ross [02:18]

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2. Investment and Capital Recovery Prerequisites

• Rule of Law and Guarantees:
  • "Venezuela has the weakest property rights laws in the whole world. So that has to be fixed... Companies going in now... are probably going to want guarantees against expropriation."
  • US and multinational entities often require such guarantees, as well as foreign exchange assurances.
• Debt Restructuring:
  • The total debt is "about $160 billion," including various sources (Chinese and Russian claims, funded debt, oil-backed debt, etc.), with bonds trading low but restructuring possible at "30 to 40 cents on the dollar."

"I think realistically, companies going in now in a relatively complex situation are probably going to want guarantees against expropriation. ... Those bonds have been trading in the high teens, low 20s. They could probably be restructured in the 30 to 40 cents on the dollar."
— Wilbur Ross [04:50]

• IMF Role:
  • Venezuela currently has "no exposure to IMF," giving space for up to "$50 billion" in IMF lending.

"IMF is entitled to lend up to $50 billion. So they could very well be a source of some funding."
— Wilbur Ross [05:48]

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3. Geopolitical Complexity: China, Russia, and Oil

• Chinese & Russian Claims:
  • Both have arranged for debt repayment in oil, "at very advantageous prices," removing the incentive for repayment or transparency.
  • The type of Venezuelan oil ("heavy oil") is suited for certain refineries in China, India, and the US (notably old Citgo refineries).
• Refining and Profitability:
  • While heavy oil is costlier to refine, "anything like $50 a barrel, it's still going to be very, very cheap," suggesting high profitability post-recapitalization.
  • Extraction costs remain low once proper equipment is restored.

"Both the Chinese and the Russians had made loans to Venezuela that are payable at least partly in oil, but oil at very, very advantageous prices to them. ... The oil that comes out of Venezuela is mostly what we call heavy oil."
— Wilbur Ross [06:59]

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4. Other Resources and Ongoing Criminality

• Gold Smuggling:
  • Mention of continued illicit activities: "It [Venezuela] has lots of gold, most of which is not being used for lawful purposes," including "transport planes every day flying to Iran with Venezuelan gold."
    — Wilbur Ross [08:47]

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5. Political Precedent and the Path Forward

• Risks of Overthrowing a Sitting Head of State:
  • Concern over whether removing Maduro sets an international precedent for other powers to justify similar actions.
• Call for Supervised Elections:
  • Ross defers to "Secretary Rubio" (likely Senator Marco Rubio, prominent on Latin American policy) and endorses the need for "new elections," provided they are "properly supervised" as a possible solution for governance.

"I'm not close enough to what's happening on the ground to figure out exactly how to resolve the political issues. But Secretary Rubio has indicated... that perhaps the ultimate solution... is new elections. And if they're properly supervised, that might well be an answer."
— Wilbur Ross [09:22]

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Venezuela’s unrealized potential:

  "They could probably be restructured in the 30 to 40 cents on the dollar. So in the overall context, that's not a very big number."
  — Wilbur Ross [05:44]

• On criminal use of resources:

  "It has lots of gold, most of which is not being used for lawful purposes."
  — Wilbur Ross [08:47]

• On the political aftermath:

  "Does removing a sitting head of state on criminal grounds create a precedent that we have to live with later? Do other great powers now reserve that right for themselves as well?"
  — Nathan Hager [09:05]

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Segment Timestamps

• [01:15] – Economic Overview & Oil Wealth
• [02:18] – Agriculture’s Collapse & Migration
• [04:50] – Rule of Law, Property Rights, and Investment Guarantees
• [05:48] – IMF and Debt Restructuring
• [06:59] – China, Russia, and the Heavy Oil Market
• [08:47] – Gold Smuggling/Illicit Activities
• [09:05] – Precedent and Governance
• [09:22] – Need for Supervised Elections

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Summary & Takeaways

Wilbur Ross provides a pragmatic and technical assessment of Venezuela’s potential for recovery following Maduro’s capture. He underscores that while the country’s raw resources are monumental, unlocking them requires sweeping reforms: restoration of rule of law, protection of property rights, addressing a convoluted debt situation, and navigating global power interests, especially those of China and Russia. Ross is measured about the political road ahead but sees "properly supervised elections" as a credible path forward. The episode delivers a rare mix of hard numbers, policy realism, and candid discussion about the stakes of regime change in a resource-rich but beleaguered nation.

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Transcript

[Karen Moscow]

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[Nathan Hager]

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[Karen Moscow]

It might be charges that center around drug trafficking, but it has been a White House that is keenly focused on what happens to oil in Venezuela. For more on the fallout of Maduro's capture, we are joined now by Wilbur Ross. He served as secretary of commerce in the first Trump administration. Mr. Secretary, thank you so much for joining us this morning. And you oversaw the Commerce Department at a time when economic policy was increasingly becoming a national security tool. With this latest action in Venezuela, what has changed? Does that become even more apparent as a tool for this administration?

[Wilbur Ross]

Well, I think it's clear that a lot can be done and should be done to change the economics of Venezuela. Let me give you a few data points. They probably have 300 billion barrels of oil of proven reserves. At $50 a barrel, that's $15 trillion of reserves. So in terms of being able to handle the debts that they have, which are substantial but are only 160 billion. So compare that to oil reserves well into the trillions. It should not be that big a problem. The bigger problem is that because of poor management, poor maintenance and running out of parts, their oil production has gone down by more than 2 million barrels a day. At $50 a barrel, that works out to about $37 billion a year cost to the economy. Those are huge, huge numbers, especially when you consider the whole population is only around 27 million people because some 7 million people have fled the country under Maduro. And it's not just oil. There's a lot else that can be fixed. For example, agriculture is 25% of the land mass of Venezuela, but it's only 3% of the economy and only 10% of the labor force. And the reason for that is, is that they don't have fertilizer, their equipment, tractors and reapers and things are pretty well broken down. They need spare parts. So there's a lot of stuff that can be improved and improved pretty quickly. Agriculture, for example, could be brought back very, very fast. Venezuela had been one of the most verdant soils in all of Latin America. And it was one of the reasons why Venezuela was as popular and as prosperous as it had been.

[Nathan Hager]

But, but Wilbur, what, what needs to happen?

[Wilbur Ross]

They were bringing Colombians in to help on the fields because they didn't have enough workers.

[Nathan Hager]

Can I just break in, Wilbur, and ask, you know, this is your specialty. You made your name before you ran trade policy for commerce at the cabinet level, negotiating for creditors in the biggest names of bankruptcy, TWA and Texaco and Drexel Burnham Lambert. Then you obviously became the biggest restructuring expert or one of them in the US with turnarounds of massive businesses like US Steel. So this is what you do. What needs to happen for capital to go into Venezuela and do the very same? What kind of stability, what kind of rule of law, what kind of prerequisites need to be met?

[Wilbur Ross]

Right. Well, there's a lot that needs to be done in terms of laws. Venezuela has the weakest property rights laws in the whole world. So that has to be fixed so that you have some assurance of private sector continuing ownership. But I think realistically, companies going in now in a relatively complex situation are probably going to want guarantees against expropriation. And that's not unusual. The US and multinational entities often give expatriation and foreign exchange guarantees. Now, the debt structure is mind bogglingly complicated. They have about 160 billion of debt altogether. Counting expatriation claims, counting funded debt, counting debt for oil, counting everything. Those bonds have been trading in the high teens, low 20s. They could probably be restructured in the 30 to 40 cents on the dollar. So in the overall context, that's not a very big number. And one of the few good things is that the IMF has no exposure to Venezuela and IMF is entitled to lend up to $50 billion. So they could very well be a source of some funding.

[Karen Moscow]

If I can just jump in on that point before we continue, Wilbur, because some of the exposure we do understand comes from China and debt owed to Chinese banks. For example, if there is a restructuring of debt in country, do you expect the US to exert force of who gets priority in the capital stack? Does it change where back payments and different restructuring comes from? Just given the geopolitics of the moment between the US and China?

[Wilbur Ross]

Right. Well, both the Chinese and the Russians had made loans to Venezuela that are payable at least partly in oil, but oil at very, very advantageous prices to them. So they are part of the problem in that they're getting oil very cheaply out of Venezuela in return for debts that otherwise are never going to be paid. Now, the oil that comes out of Venezuela is mostly what we call heavy oil, and that requires a slightly different refining process from the American shale oil, which is mostly light oil. Both China and India have very strong facilities for processing heavy oil because a lot of the Iranian oil that they had been getting also is heavy. And in the US There are a number of refineries in the southern part of the country, particularly the old Sitco refineries that were established from the very beginning to handle this oil. So while it is a little bit different and it's a little more costly to refine, right. Anything like $50 a barrel, it's still going to be very, very cheap.

[Nathan Hager]

Wilbur, can I just ask the extraction.

[Wilbur Ross]

Costs and Venezuela, once you've got it up and running and with proper equipment, are going to be very, very low.

[Nathan Hager]

Can I just ask. Wilbur, we've only got, we've only got a minute left here. And I want to ask.

[Wilbur Ross]

Well, it has lots of gold, most of which is not being used for lawful purposes.

[Nathan Hager]

Well, speaking of lawful, I just want.

[Wilbur Ross]

To ask transport planes every day flying to Iran with Venezuelan gone.

[Nathan Hager]

Fair. Fair. We've only got a minute left. And I just want to ask you about the precedent risk here. Does removing a sitting head of state on criminal grounds create a precedent that we have to live with later? Do other great powers now reserve that right for themselves as well?

[Wilbur Ross]

Well, the whole situation is very complicated. I'm not close enough to what's happening on the ground to figure out exactly how to resolve the political issues. But Secretary Rubio has indicated on other television shows over the weekend that perhaps the ultimate solution to the governance of Venezuela is new elections. And if they're properly supervised, that might well be an answer.

[Karen Moscow]

All right, Commerce Secretary, I'm sorry to jump in. We are we are just up against a commercial break. Thank you so much for joining us, though. That is Wilbur Ross, former US Commerce Secretary, as we assess the fallout of Nicolas Maduro's capture, who is currently on US Soil in New York facing trials.

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