Founder & Managing Partner at Arbroath Group Christopher Smart talks the latest out of Iran and Hungary

Summary

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Bloomberg Talks

Guest: Christopher Smart, Founder & Managing Partner, Arbroath Group

Host: Tom Keene (and Alexis)

Date: April 13, 2026

Episode Theme:
A timely discussion on the evolving landscape of international diplomacy, the aftermath of Hungary's watershed election, and the uncertain dynamics between the United States and Iran. Christopher Smart brings his expertise as a former diplomat and current managing partner at Arbroath Group to unpack how institutional shifts, recent political changes, and global relationships are shaping world affairs.

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Main Discussion Topics & Insights

1. The State of U.S. Diplomacy Post-Trump

Timestamps: 00:36–02:27

• Tom Keene opens with a historical look at U.S. diplomacy, referencing Henry Kissinger and the tradition of career diplomats, then asks Smart whether these institutional processes are still strong or “broken.”
• Christopher Smart’s response:
  • Acknowledges significant loss in institutional continuity and experience in the State Department.
  • Highlights that successful diplomacy requires long-term relationship-building and follow-through, not just deal-making.
  • Expresses concern about unpredictability in U.S.-Iran relations stemming from weakened diplomatic continuity.
• Quote:

  “Negotiations are not just about going into a room for 21 hours and hoping to strike a deal. It's about building trust... and following up on the very difficult details of any negotiation. And I think that's what we're seeing unravel in front of us right now.”
  — Christopher Smart (01:50)

2. Healing U.S. Diplomacy & Global Perceptions

Timestamps: 02:27–03:27

• Keene presses on whether U.S. diplomacy is healing after the Trump era.
• Christopher Smart:
  • Globally, there is a hope that America can re-engage constructively.
  • Suggests U.S. must shift toward predictable, rule-based engagement rather than self-advantage.
• Quote:

  “People want America to succeed around the world...hopefully in a way that is more predictable, more easily for them to engage with, and that we...are looking to build a set of rules and behaviors with other countries rather than...just the next particular edge for our own advantage.”
  — Christopher Smart (02:49)

3. Hungary’s Political Earthquake: Orban’s Defeat and Implications

Timestamps: 03:27–05:11

• Alexis introduces Hungary’s recent election, highlighting Viktor Orban’s loss after years of hampering European efforts to support Ukraine.
• Christopher Smart:
  • Portrays Hungary as “digging itself out” after 16 years of political backsliding.
  • Orban’s departure removes a major blocker of EU aid to Ukraine and pressure on Russia.
  • Notes incoming PM Magyar faces major institutional repair as Orban “politicized the courts, the central bank, other institutions.”
• Quote:

  “Hungary is kind of a country that has dug a deep hole for itself for the last 16 years and is in the process, we see, now, digging itself out...Prime Minister Magyar...will have to do a whole lot of addressing the institutional damage that Prime Minister Orban has done.”
  — Christopher Smart (04:00)

4. Impact of Hungary’s Change on Russia, China, and Europe’s Populist Movements

Timestamps: 04:53–06:22

• Alexis asks whether Russia and China are distancing themselves or adjusting to Hungary’s new leadership.
• Christopher Smart:
  • Expects Moscow and Beijing to pragmatically engage with the new government while maintaining ties to Orban in opposition.
  • New momentum in Budapest to rebuild European relationships; European leadership is welcoming.
  • Notes ripple effect: European populist parties may need to “modulate their message” as pro-Europe sentiment proves strong.
• Quote:

  “The leadership across Europe has embraced him...populist parties in France, in Germany, and elsewhere...may be feeling like they have to modulate their message a little bit to understand that Europe is still a very popular message...and that turning too much against Brussels, against further integration is not necessarily a winning path.”
  — Christopher Smart (05:50)

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Notable Quotes & Moments

• “We've broken a lot of it [diplomacy]. I think there’s still some extraordinary career foreign service officers at their posts this morning, but a great many...have left [with] experience and institutional memory...”
  — Christopher Smart (01:42)
• “It's not a big surprise...the polls had shown [Orban] would lose, although...there was a lot of concern that it would be a close election and therefore a disputed election.”
  — Christopher Smart (05:16)

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Timestamps for Key Segments

• 00:36–01:39 – Tom Keene’s introduction; the status of U.S. diplomacy and institutional memory
• 01:39–02:27 – Smart on what’s been lost in U.S. foreign service, unpredictability with Iran
• 02:27–03:27 – Discussion on global hope for U.S. diplomacy and the need for rule-based engagement
• 03:27–03:52 – Hungary’s recent election, Orban’s defeat, and ramifications for Ukraine
• 03:52–04:53 – Institutional damage in Hungary and challenges for PM Magyar
• 04:53–06:22 – International reactions to Hungary’s shift; impact on Russian, Chinese relations, and European populists

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Episode Tone & Takeaways

• The conversation is candid, analytical, and concerned with the real-world consequences of weakening institutions and shifting global alliances.
• Both host and guest lament the fraying of diplomatic norms while expressing cautious optimism about the possibilities for renewal, especially in light of the dramatic political shift in Hungary.
• Christopher Smart’s perspective is pragmatic and steeped in experience, offering both warnings about lost expertise and hope for reinvigorated multilateralism.

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Transcript

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[Podcast Host]

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[Tom Keene]

we're going to talk to someone who I think touches upon whatever your politics, the state of our diplomacy. Christopher Smart is founder and managing partner at Arbreth. But as Bill Burns writes in Foreign affairs this week, or I've seen Nicholas Burns, our former ambassador to China, out in the Zeitgeist as well, Christopher Smart is part of that team, founder managing partner at Arbreth with his public service to the nation in our diplomacy. So you know, Christopher, what's so concerning to me is we all at gunpoint read a thousand pages of Henry Kissinger diplomacy. Some of us read it cover to cover full disclosure. I did. And then the chosen few got Pickering or Wrangle fellowships, including my first intern here at Bloomberg, and they could join the magic that was your State Department. Is that process still in place or have we broken our diplomacy?

[Christopher Smart]

Well, Tom, that's a big question this morning. Good morning to you. And I think the reason, the sad answer is we've broken a lot of it. I think there's still some extraordinary career foreign service officers at their posts this morning, but a great many of them have left and a great many who have left had that both experience and institutional memory that is so important in negotiations. You know, just as an aside, as you know, negotiations are not just about going into a room for 21 hours and hoping to strike a deal. It's about building trust between the two sides. It's about following up on the very difficult details of any negotiation. And I think that's what we're seeing unravel in front of us right now. And what makes these next few weeks and months between the US And Iran so unpredictable, away from the weeks or months?

[Tom Keene]

Alexis wants to address that. But Christopher Smart, critically here, what do you perceive is our healing diplomacy after the time of President Trump?

[Christopher Smart]

I think people want America to succeed around the world, and I think they will look at this period as a difficult one. We've had a lot of difficult periods, periods in our history before, and I think they will hope that we can re engage with the world, not necessarily the way we've done it before under previous presidents, but in a way that is more predictable, more easily for them to engage with, and a sense that we in the United States are looking to build a set of rules and behaviors with other countries rather than, you know, so intensely focusing on just the next particular edge for our own advantage.

[Alexis]

Christopher, I just want to talk for a moment about what's happening over in Hungary. We saw that election this week and a crushing defeat for PM Viktor Orban. He had such an outsized global influence, and of course, we know he repeatedly blocked aid for Ukraine to fend off Russia's invasion. What does it mean now, the fact that he is no longer in that position? What does it mean for, I think Ukraine especially?

[Christopher Smart]

Well, I think, you know, for, I'll say this for Tom. You know, you never like to see a team like the Red Sox digging themselves out of a hole. Hungary is kind of a country that has dug a deep hole for itself for the last 16 years and is in the process, we see, now, digging itself out. And so that's the good news. It's also good news, as you point out, for Ukraine, because the Orban government has been blocking Europe's efforts to assist Ukraine and Europe's efforts to increase pressure on Russia. So that's good news as well. But it does have a lot of internal repair to undertake right now. And Prime Minister Magyar, who is coming into office, will have to do a whole lot of addressing the institutional damage that Prime Minister Orban has done to impose, you know, to politicize the courts, the central bank, other institutions across the country. So that's the Hungarians main challenge right now.

[Alexis]

What about. I just want to stick with Hungary because there's so much to unpack. Orban was Russia's closest ally in the EU and courted China. What are those countries? Are they distancing themselves already from the new government? I mean, I know it hasn't really been put in place yet, has it? I don't think it has.

[Christopher Smart]

Well, it will come. It will. It will enter office very quickly. I think the other countries are trying to, to understand what's going on. In some sense, this isn't a big surprise for anybody because the polls had shown that he would win, although there was very, there was a lot of concern that it would be a close election and therefore a disputed election. I think the Chinese are very pragmatic. They will deal with whomever is the prime minister right now. I think Russia will do the same, although they will continue to work with Orban, who is now moving into opposition with his Fidesh party. But right now the momentum is on the side of the new prime minister, rebuilding its ties with the European Union. The leadership across Europe has embraced him. And I think the other interesting piece subtext to all of this is the populist parties in France, in Germany and elsewhere around Europe who may be feeling like they have to modulate their message a little bit to understand that Europe is still a very popular message with a great many voters across the continent and that turning too much against Brussels, against further integration is not necessarily a winning path for them.

[Tom Keene]

Christopher Smart, thank you so much. Haven't had you on ages. We need to get you on much, much more. Christopher Smart with our birth group and his public service to the nation at the State Department and the White House as well.

[Podcast Host]

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