Bloomberg Talks: Gary Cohn Talks Fed Chair, US Economy
Date: January 20, 2026
Host: Bloomberg (Various Interviewers and Co-Host/Analyst)
Guest: Gary Cohn, IBM Vice Chairman, former NSC Director
Episode Overview
This episode features Gary Cohn, former National Economic Council Director and current IBM Vice Chairman, discussing significant economic and political developments with Bloomberg hosts at the World Economic Forum in Davos. The conversation covers President Trump's push to acquire Greenland and its market repercussions, ongoing global geopolitical volatility, shifts in investment behavior, the Federal Reserve chair race, and the intersection of AI, interest rates, and capital spending. Cohn offers insider perspectives on the administration’s policy approaches, market sentiment, and the evolving structure of leadership at the U.S. Federal Reserve.
Key Discussion Points & Insights
1. Market Volatility and the "Greenland Gambit"
[00:44–02:03]
- Geopolitical Shockwaves: President Trump’s controversial attempt to acquire Greenland sparked fresh market volatility and investor uncertainty.
- Strategic Interests:
- North Atlantic military presence and air defense expansion cited as U.S. interests.
- Greenland’s rare earth resources highlighted as a key driver.
- Negotiation Tactics:
- Cohn: “What we've seen evolve in the Trump presidency is this desire to negotiate and get a deal…This may all evolve in a place where the United States ends up in a very good strategic position.” (01:08)
2. Market Reactions: The “Sell America” Narrative
[02:03–03:26]
- Divergent Global Reactions:
- European and U.S. investors split: Europeans are more anxious, Americans more optimistic.
- “Treasuries are selling off much more [in Europe]…the dollar was much lower. And as the US wakes up, people are coming in and buying.” (Co-Host/Analyst, 02:27)
- Reallocation, not Panic:
- Cohn observes global funds trimming U.S. assets, but not “liquidating America.”
- “It feels like we've got a trim around the edges in asset allocation models going on.” (02:44)
- Buy America Resilience:
- Cohn: “That's Sell America till the light turns green and everyone has to Buy America…We've got one of the strongest economies in the world today. We're growing at five plus percent growth…when this geopolitical risk settles down, the market's probably going to take off again.” (03:26)
3. Geopolitical Volatility and Historical Context
[03:55–04:32]
- Quick-Shifting Global Landscape:
- Co-Host references the rapid transition from capturing Nicolas Maduro to Greenland tensions within two weeks.
- Big Picture Perspective:
- “This too shall pass. We can go back in the last 8-12 years and there’s been periods…of highly volatile geopolitical moments.” (Cohn, 04:14)
- Suggests Davos forum timing is relevant to market and policy tensions.
4. The Federal Reserve Chair Race Inside View
[04:32–07:16]
- On Trump’s Selection Process:
- President now “considerably more careful” and involved.
- “The President clearly has a view on what interest rate policy should be…the opportunity with the Fed job is once he appoints someone…the Fed is an independent agency and he loses his day-to-day contact.” (Cohn, 04:45)
- Committee Dynamics:
- Cohn points out the difficulty for any Chair to sway the committee:
- “I'm not sure if the chairperson can ultimately sway the committee that far…You've got some very strong regional bank presidents, you've got some very strong governors.” (05:46)
- Cohn points out the difficulty for any Chair to sway the committee:
- Fed’s Evolution & Track Record:
- “Have they been a little bit late? Yeah…they've caught up…through the cycle, they end up getting to the right place.” (05:46)
5. Who Will Lead the Fed? Deep Dive into Candidates
[07:16–08:14]
- Comparing Front-Runners:
- Individual names discussed: Governor Chris Waller, Vice Chair Clarity, Kevin Warsh, and Kevin Hassett.
- Warsh: “Kevin is highly qualified…Kevin was there during some of the toughest days of the Fed during the financial crisis. Without Kevin's wisdom, I'm not sure we would have ended up in the same place.” (Cohn, 07:30)
- On Alleged “Puppet” Appointments:
- “Whoever gets appointed, there will be people…that will have negative things to say about him…there will be people to be very happy...” (08:14)
6. AI Buildout and the Role of Monetary Policy
[08:29–09:41]
- AI & Rates: Not Fully Coupled:
- “AI buildout is being built because there's demand…AI companies feel like they're behind the curve…The only question that rates have is what is the ultimate all-in cost to build these things.” (Cohn, 08:39)
- Details the importance of long-term financing costs over short-term Fed rates.
- “The Fed only controls fed funds...so fed funds could possibly go down and the interest rate to finance a data center could be unchanged.” (09:41)
7. Reflections: Trading Floor to the West Wing
[09:41–10:29]
- Trading Floor Nostalgia:
- “Of course you miss the trading floor…That's when there really were trading floors. Like you actually stood up and talked on phones and spoke to each other.” (Cohn, 09:43)
- Shift to automation: “Now it's machines.” (09:58)
- Skills Transfer:
- “It did [prepare me for the West Wing]…the ability to be watching five different things going on at the same time and be listening in five places.” (Cohn, 10:02–10:06)
Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments
-
On U.S. Geopolitical Strategy:
“I understand what the president's interest is…They also have rare earths, which is something that we in the United States can't supply to ourselves. So…is this a negotiating posture…to get more rares, to get a larger naval and air force presence?”
(Gary Cohn, 01:08) -
On Market Cyclicality:
“When this geopolitical risk settles down, the market's probably going to take off again. That's been the history of this pattern.”
(Gary Cohn, 03:26) -
On the Challenge of Leading the Fed:
“Once he appoints someone into that job, they're an independent agency and he loses his day-to-day contact with that person.”
(Gary Cohn, 04:45) -
On Fed Committee Influence:
“I'm not sure if the chairperson can ultimately sway the committee that far…It's going to be a tough group to persuade.”
(Gary Cohn, 05:46) -
On Kevin Warsh:
“Without Kevin's wisdom, I'm not sure we would have ended up in the same place. He's a highly qualified candidate.”
(Gary Cohn, 07:30) -
On Fed Funds vs Real Economy Rates:
“Fed funds could possibly go down and the interest rate to finance a data center could be unchanged.”
(Gary Cohn, 09:41) -
On Wall Street Skills in Washington:
“When you grow up in a trading floor and you grow up in a trading environment, your eyes and ears [have to be everywhere].”
(Gary Cohn, 10:06)
Timestamps for Key Segments
- [00:44] – Episode begins; stocks, Trump, and Greenland
- [01:08] – Cohn on Trump’s negotiation style and strategic view
- [02:44] – Cohn on “Sell America” and asset allocation shifts
- [03:26] – Resilience of U.S. markets despite geopolitical risk
- [04:14] – Cohn on volatility cycles and big moments in recent history
- [04:45] – Fed Chair race and Trump’s approach
- [05:46] – Can the Fed chair really sway the committee?
- [07:30] – Cohn’s high praise for Kevin Warsh
- [08:39] – AI buildout, capex, and interest rate dynamics
- [09:43] – Trading floor stories and skills transfer to White House
Tone:
The conversation is businesslike, analytical, often candid, occasionally humorous when Cohn reminisces about trading floors, but maintains a clear, expert focus on present challenges in the global, political, and economic climate.
For Listeners:
This episode is especially valuable for anyone interested in the intersection of global politics, U.S. policy, and financial markets. Cohn’s frank, insider take on both the White House and the Federal Reserve’s current state offers rare clarity amid the noise of market-moving headlines.