Global Head of Tech Research at Wedbush Securities, Dan Ives, Talks Tech Resilience

Summary

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Bloomberg Talks — Dan Ives (Wedbush Securities) on Tech Resilience

Date: April 6, 2026
Host: Bloomberg
Guest: Dan Ives, Global Head of Tech Research, Wedbush Securities
Location: Interviewed from Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia

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Episode Overview

In this episode, Dan Ives, Global Head of Tech Research at Wedbush Securities, shares on-the-ground insights from his recent travels in the Pacific Rim, analyzing tech sector resilience amidst a tense global economic environment. Ives discusses AI adoption, the current tech investment climate, sector rotations, software and cybersecurity prospects, and Apple's evolving global strategy. He underlines the disconnect between market narratives and underlying tech demand, offering actionable perspectives for institutional and retail investors navigating volatility.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Importance of On-the-Ground Insights

[00:40 – 01:28]

• Why Travel Matters:
  Dan emphasizes the necessity of “feet on the ground” to understand local tech demand, especially in markets like Taiwan and Korea. Only direct dialogue with companies and investors reveals real-time shifts in supply, demand, and risk perception.

  • “You have to have feet on the ground to be talking not just to investors, but companies...” (Dan Ives, 00:57)

• Geopolitical Risk & Supply Chains:
  Persistent concerns over the Taiwan Strait and memory shortages reinforce the need for in-person checks.

  • “These are the things…you know, we've talked about…it's the only way you can navigate this environment.” (Dan Ives, 01:13)

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2. Tech Demand vs. Market Sentiment

[01:28 – 02:23]

• White-Knuckle Environment:
  Despite a nervous macro backdrop, Dan asserts that real tech demand is “robust” across semiconductors, memory, and components—particularly for hyperscalers and AI infrastructure.

  • “It's a white knuckle environment for tech, but when you look at demand…in Taiwan, it's robust.” (Dan Ives, 01:39)

• Contrarian Bullishness:
  Dan sees the current tech stock sell-off as an opportunity—he expects a recovery once macro headwinds pass.

  • “When it passes, tech stocks…that's where you want to be positioned…” (Dan Ives, 02:13)

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3. Software & AI: Navigating the “Ghost Trade”

[02:23 – 04:13]

• Investor Negativity on Software:
  Across the globe, investors are fixated on hardware and semis, viewing software/SaaS stocks with caution. Dan views this as an overreaction.

  • “It's as negative a sentiment as I've seen software…in the past 10 years.” (Dan Ives, 02:38)

• Misguided Narrative:
  Fears that AI and large language models (such as Anthropic) will render established software irrelevant are overdone. The entrenched positions of major stack players—like Salesforce, ServiceNow, Oracle, CrowdStrike, Palo Alto—ensure ongoing relevance.

  • “You have to separate between…companies that could be at risk…when you look at install base entrenched stack players…they continue to stick out positively.” (Dan Ives, 03:31)

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4. Microsoft: Margin Durability & AI Upside

[04:13 – 05:44]

• Valuation Context:
  Microsoft's valuation multiples (P/E, free cash flow) are at decade-lows, despite strong cash flow and margin momentum.

  • “We're talking about multiples…we haven't seen going back eight years, 10 years…” (Dan Ives, 04:53)

• AI-Driven Upside:
  Only 10% of the Microsoft customer base has adopted AI, implying vast runway. Dan’s target:

  • Bear case: $500–$550/share
  • Base case: $600–$650/share
  • “If we're 10% right…this is a $500 to $550 stock. If we're base case right, it's $600 to $650.” (Dan Ives, 05:21)

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5. Cybersecurity: Strategic Growth in the AI Era

[05:49 – 06:44]

• Expanding Budgets:
  The expansion of "surface area" due to AI and agent proliferation means cybersecurity budgets are accelerating—expected to double from 5% to 10% of IT spend in coming years.

  • “Budgets are going to increase from 5% to 10% next two to three years…if every person has five agents…that's just going to expand the surface area.” (Dan Ives, 06:02)

• Winners in Cybersecurity:
  CrowdStrike, Palo Alto, Check Point, and Rubrik are named as primary beneficiaries.

  • “These are names that are going to have massively bigger opportunities…” (Dan Ives, 06:28)

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6. Asia Tech Channel Checks & The “Memory Super Cycle”

[06:44 – 07:24]

• Accelerating Demand:
  Dan’s channel checks reveal increasing deal size and ongoing shortages in components/memory—a “memory super cycle.”

  • “Demand the supply quarter of a quarter is accelerated…it's a memory super cycle that's going on…” (Dan Ives, 06:50)

• Structural Change:
  The current buildout is only in year three of an expected 8–10-year cycle—the fourth industrial revolution is underway, undeterred by geopolitical risks.

  • “We're in year three of an eight to ten year build out…and that's not changing…” (Dan Ives, 07:11)

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7. Apple: Late to AI, But Well-Positioned

[07:24 – 08:22]

• Sum-of-the-Parts Valuation:

  • Bear case: $325/share
  • Best case: $375–$400/share
    • “Worst case scenario $325…best case scenario…$375 to $400.” (Dan Ives, 07:34)

• AI Integration Strategy:
  Apple was “late to the game” in AI but is set to benefit as consumer AI adoption takes off—Dan calls Gemini a future “pillar” and sees substantial upside.

  • “The consumer AI revolution is going to go through Apple…75 to 100 hours will ultimately be the upside as they monetize AI.” (Dan Ives, 07:56)

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

| Timestamp | Quote | Speaker | |-----------|-------|---------| | 00:57 | "You have to have feet on the ground to be talking not just to investors, but companies...the only way you can navigate this environment..." | Dan Ives | | 02:38 | "It's as negative a sentiment as I've seen software...in the past 10 years." | Dan Ives | | 03:31 | "When you look at install base entrenched stack players like Salesforce, ServiceNow, Oracle, Cybersecurity CrowdStrike, Palo Alto...they continue to also stick out positively." | Dan Ives | | 04:53 | "We're talking about multiples in a free cash flow basis and on earnings that we haven't seen going back eight years, 10 years..." | Dan Ives | | 05:21 | "If we're 10% right…this is a $500 to $550 stock. If we're base case right, it's 600 to 650." | Dan Ives | | 06:02 | "Budgets are going to increase from 5%...to 10% next two or three years because the surface area...that's just going to expand..." | Dan Ives | | 07:11 | "We're in year three of an eight to 10-year build out...the fourth industrial revolution's happening." | Dan Ives | | 07:56 | "The consumer AI revolution is going to go through Apple...the upside as they monetize AI." | Dan Ives |

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Timestamps for Key Segments

• 00:40 — Start of interview; importance of on-site research
• 01:28 — Tech demand and robustness despite macro nervousness
• 02:23 — Software market sentiment and the “AI ghost trade”
• 04:13 — Microsoft’s margin durability and AI-driven valuation
• 05:49 — Cybersecurity in the age of AI
• 06:44 — Asia tech demand and “memory super cycle”
• 07:24 — Apple’s global manufacturing and AI strategy

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Takeaways

• Despite short-term jitters, underlying demand for tech (especially AI, hyperscalers, cybersecurity) is strong.
• Negative market sentiment on software is likely disconnected from on-the-ground adoption and future use-case growth.
• Microsoft and Apple are both positioned for significant future upside as AI becomes further embedded at both enterprise and consumer levels.
• Cybersecurity will see budget expansion, and select established players are set for outsized gains.
• Asia remains pivotal to global tech supply chains, and the “memory super cycle” continues to shape industry fortunes.

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Transcript

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[Narrator/Commercial Announcer]

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[Interviewer/Host]

Dan is joining us from Kuala Lumpur and of course with Wedbush Securities. Dan, explain what you learn traveling to the Pacific Rim. I mean, if anybody can do this with AI, it's you. Why do you have to go there?

[Dan Ives]

Yeah, look, you have to have feet on the ground to be talking not just to investors, but companies. I mean, what's happened in Taiwan? What does memory look like in Korea? Are there shortages because of the strait? The point is these are the things and you know, we've talked about in the show for, you know, many years, like it's what I believe it's the only way you can navigate this environment to understand what demand looks like and you know, trying to basically understand some of the patterns that we're seeing.

[Interviewer/Host]

What have you learned? Clear rumors here is there's a filter down from $109 barrel of oil into technology. Do you observe that?

[Dan Ives]

Look, I'd say right now there is one clearly sentiment. It's a white knuckle environment for tech, but when you look at demand to supply in terms of just what we're seeing in terms of demand in Taiwan, it's robust. It's robust not just for Nvidia, but it's robust for memory and for the components. And what that ultimately means is that's going to be bullish for the hyperscalers. And look, the backdrop is obviously nervous, but I just think it's very important in these environments to understand what the trends are because this will pass and when it passes, tech stocks, I continue to believe that's where you want to be positioned, especially in some of these sell offs that we've seen.

[Paul Sweeney]

Dan, what's the conversation you're having with clients over there in Asia about some of the, I guess structural concerns about software stocks in general, software as a service stocks in particular. How do you frame that out for your clients?

[Dan Ives]

Yeah, Paul, I think that's it's as negative a sentiment as I've seen software not just in Asia, but I think just across the world that I've seen probably going back 10 years or more because right now there's no every investor they're focused on semis hardware, no one wants touch software and I, and I continue to believe that is a massively disconnected narrative from the reality of what we're going to see in the use cases from Microsoft to Oracle, Salesforce to ServiceNow and I think we're going through one of those periods here where these stocks are on massive sale in my opinion relative to where we see them heading as part of the AI revolution.

[Paul Sweeney]

So how do you try to differentiate between potential winners, potential losers in the software space Dan? How do you step back and assess that?

[Dan Ives]

Yeah, I think to some extent I'll call it AI ghost trade in terms of anthropic and some of the worries about that these LLM models, anthropic in particular is going to basically unseat software. So I think you have to separate between Are there some companies that could be at risk? Yeah, of course some of the pure plays but when you look at install base entrenched stack players like Salesforce, ServiceNow, Oracle Cybersecurity CrowdStrike, Palo Alto, look we talk to the customers, how are they going about architecture, how are they building use cases and that's where Palantir again again continues to also stick out positively.

[Interviewer/Host]

From Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, Dan Ives with us, thrilled he could be with us to get our Monday started. Dan Paul Sweeney taught me this msft equ40e which is the earnings and estimate screen for beleaguered Microsoft forward 12 month P 21.26 I mean I know you're going to tell me it's a bargain, it's a broken record but we really want to understand Dan Ives the durability of their margins down the income statement Given These shocks into Q3, into Q4, into the first quarter of 2027 Is it possible to guesstimate that?

[Dan Ives]

Look, I mean when I look at Microsoft right now we're talking about multiples in a free cash flow basis and on earnings that we haven't seen you going back eight years, 10 years, you know, relative to where, where I believe and I think from a margin perspective it's ultimately it's free cash flow type of growth that's going to be in the mid to high teens, next two to three years or higher than that it all comes down to 10% of their base have upgraded or gone down the path for AI if we're 10% right this is a 500 to 550 stock. If we're base case right it's 6 to 650. That's how I think it continues to be the most disconnected stock in tech period.

[Interviewer/Host]

Right Paul? The debt load 3.3% it's just backbreaking.

[Paul Sweeney]

Hey Dan, talk to us about cybersecurity here. How do you think about cybersecurity in the world of AI? Because it just seems like boy the risk could be just exponentially higher.

[Dan Ives]

Yeah but the budgets are going to increase from 5% it to 10% next two to three years because the surface area if every person has any, if every person has five agents working out there for enterprises that's just going to expand the surface area. So what that means cybersecurity, the budget's that much more strategic. That's not going to be unseated from anthropic or OpenAI. It speaks to our view. Crowdstrike, pow Alto checkpoint rubrics. These are names that are going to have massively bigger opportunities than they do today. But it's another example that the AI goes trade is a black cloud over the sector.

[Paul Sweeney]

So Dan, what are some of your channel checks in Asia? What are they telling you these days? What are you learning over there?

[Dan Ives]

I mean if you look demand the supply quarter of a quarter is accelerated and that's not and that's really because you're seeing more and more enterprises go down this path and I think what you're seeing is the deals are getting larger, you're seeing shortages when it comes to memory and components because it's a memory super cycle that's going on and what that speaks to our view we're in year three of an eight to ten year build out and despite all the white knuckles we're seeing with Iran that's not changing that this fourth industrial revolution's happening.

[Interviewer/Host]

I got to get one question in here. Dan, brief us here on some of the parts on Apple given their global plan of manufacturer.

[Dan Ives]

Look some of the parts in what I view as like a worst case scenario 325 it when I think best case scenario I mean we're looking 375 to 400 and it just look Tom, this is one like obviously they were late to the game in AI they couldn't do it internally. Now they'll they'll alt by not putting capex dollars they ultimately won by accident and I think Gemini is going to be the sort of pillar there and the consumer AI revolution is going to go through Apple and that's why this is a name. 75 to 100 hours will ultimately be the upside as they monetize AI. This is another one just massively sell off based on what we're seeing in terms of the environment.

[Interviewer/Host]

Safe travels Dan. Safe safe travels for all of us. A team surveillance Mr. Eyes is with Wedbush. Of course you've seen him with Industry accl.

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