Bloomberg Talks — Dan Ives (Wedbush Securities) on Tech Resilience

Date: April 6, 2026
Host: Bloomberg
Guest: Dan Ives, Global Head of Tech Research, Wedbush Securities
Location: Interviewed from Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia

Episode Overview

In this episode, Dan Ives, Global Head of Tech Research at Wedbush Securities, shares on-the-ground insights from his recent travels in the Pacific Rim, analyzing tech sector resilience amidst a tense global economic environment. Ives discusses AI adoption, the current tech investment climate, sector rotations, software and cybersecurity prospects, and Apple's evolving global strategy. He underlines the disconnect between market narratives and underlying tech demand, offering actionable perspectives for institutional and retail investors navigating volatility.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Importance of On-the-Ground Insights

[00:40 – 01:28]

• Why Travel Matters:
  Dan emphasizes the necessity of “feet on the ground” to understand local tech demand, especially in markets like Taiwan and Korea. Only direct dialogue with companies and investors reveals real-time shifts in supply, demand, and risk perception.

  • “You have to have feet on the ground to be talking not just to investors, but companies...” (Dan Ives, 00:57)

• Geopolitical Risk & Supply Chains:
  Persistent concerns over the Taiwan Strait and memory shortages reinforce the need for in-person checks.

  • “These are the things…you know, we've talked about…it's the only way you can navigate this environment.” (Dan Ives, 01:13)

2. Tech Demand vs. Market Sentiment

[01:28 – 02:23]

• White-Knuckle Environment:
  Despite a nervous macro backdrop, Dan asserts that real tech demand is “robust” across semiconductors, memory, and components—particularly for hyperscalers and AI infrastructure.

  • “It's a white knuckle environment for tech, but when you look at demand…in Taiwan, it's robust.” (Dan Ives, 01:39)

• Contrarian Bullishness:
  Dan sees the current tech stock sell-off as an opportunity—he expects a recovery once macro headwinds pass.

  • “When it passes, tech stocks…that's where you want to be positioned…” (Dan Ives, 02:13)

3. Software & AI: Navigating the “Ghost Trade”

[02:23 – 04:13]

• Investor Negativity on Software:
  Across the globe, investors are fixated on hardware and semis, viewing software/SaaS stocks with caution. Dan views this as an overreaction.

  • “It's as negative a sentiment as I've seen software…in the past 10 years.” (Dan Ives, 02:38)

• Misguided Narrative:
  Fears that AI and large language models (such as Anthropic) will render established software irrelevant are overdone. The entrenched positions of major stack players—like Salesforce, ServiceNow, Oracle, CrowdStrike, Palo Alto—ensure ongoing relevance.

  • “You have to separate between…companies that could be at risk…when you look at install base entrenched stack players…they continue to stick out positively.” (Dan Ives, 03:31)

4. Microsoft: Margin Durability & AI Upside

[04:13 – 05:44]

• Valuation Context:
  Microsoft's valuation multiples (P/E, free cash flow) are at decade-lows, despite strong cash flow and margin momentum.

  • “We're talking about multiples…we haven't seen going back eight years, 10 years…” (Dan Ives, 04:53)

• AI-Driven Upside:
  Only 10% of the Microsoft customer base has adopted AI, implying vast runway. Dan’s target:

  • Bear case: $500–$550/share
  • Base case: $600–$650/share
  • “If we're 10% right…this is a $500 to $550 stock. If we're base case right, it's $600 to $650.” (Dan Ives, 05:21)

5. Cybersecurity: Strategic Growth in the AI Era

[05:49 – 06:44]

• Expanding Budgets:
  The expansion of "surface area" due to AI and agent proliferation means cybersecurity budgets are accelerating—expected to double from 5% to 10% of IT spend in coming years.

  • “Budgets are going to increase from 5% to 10% next two to three years…if every person has five agents…that's just going to expand the surface area.” (Dan Ives, 06:02)

• Winners in Cybersecurity:
  CrowdStrike, Palo Alto, Check Point, and Rubrik are named as primary beneficiaries.

  • “These are names that are going to have massively bigger opportunities…” (Dan Ives, 06:28)

6. Asia Tech Channel Checks & The “Memory Super Cycle”

[06:44 – 07:24]

• Accelerating Demand:
  Dan’s channel checks reveal increasing deal size and ongoing shortages in components/memory—a “memory super cycle.”

  • “Demand the supply quarter of a quarter is accelerated…it's a memory super cycle that's going on…” (Dan Ives, 06:50)

• Structural Change:
  The current buildout is only in year three of an expected 8–10-year cycle—the fourth industrial revolution is underway, undeterred by geopolitical risks.

  • “We're in year three of an eight to ten year build out…and that's not changing…” (Dan Ives, 07:11)

7. Apple: Late to AI, But Well-Positioned

[07:24 – 08:22]

• Sum-of-the-Parts Valuation:

  • Bear case: $325/share
  • Best case: $375–$400/share
    • “Worst case scenario $325…best case scenario…$375 to $400.” (Dan Ives, 07:34)

• AI Integration Strategy:
  Apple was “late to the game” in AI but is set to benefit as consumer AI adoption takes off—Dan calls Gemini a future “pillar” and sees substantial upside.

  • “The consumer AI revolution is going to go through Apple…75 to 100 hours will ultimately be the upside as they monetize AI.” (Dan Ives, 07:56)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

| Timestamp | Quote | Speaker | |-----------|-------|---------| | 00:57 | "You have to have feet on the ground to be talking not just to investors, but companies...the only way you can navigate this environment..." | Dan Ives | | 02:38 | "It's as negative a sentiment as I've seen software...in the past 10 years." | Dan Ives | | 03:31 | "When you look at install base entrenched stack players like Salesforce, ServiceNow, Oracle, Cybersecurity CrowdStrike, Palo Alto...they continue to also stick out positively." | Dan Ives | | 04:53 | "We're talking about multiples in a free cash flow basis and on earnings that we haven't seen going back eight years, 10 years..." | Dan Ives | | 05:21 | "If we're 10% right…this is a $500 to $550 stock. If we're base case right, it's 600 to 650." | Dan Ives | | 06:02 | "Budgets are going to increase from 5%...to 10% next two or three years because the surface area...that's just going to expand..." | Dan Ives | | 07:11 | "We're in year three of an eight to 10-year build out...the fourth industrial revolution's happening." | Dan Ives | | 07:56 | "The consumer AI revolution is going to go through Apple...the upside as they monetize AI." | Dan Ives |

Timestamps for Key Segments

• 00:40 — Start of interview; importance of on-site research
• 01:28 — Tech demand and robustness despite macro nervousness
• 02:23 — Software market sentiment and the “AI ghost trade”
• 04:13 — Microsoft’s margin durability and AI-driven valuation
• 05:49 — Cybersecurity in the age of AI
• 06:44 — Asia tech demand and “memory super cycle”
• 07:24 — Apple’s global manufacturing and AI strategy

Takeaways

• Despite short-term jitters, underlying demand for tech (especially AI, hyperscalers, cybersecurity) is strong.
• Negative market sentiment on software is likely disconnected from on-the-ground adoption and future use-case growth.
• Microsoft and Apple are both positioned for significant future upside as AI becomes further embedded at both enterprise and consumer levels.
• Cybersecurity will see budget expansion, and select established players are set for outsized gains.
• Asia remains pivotal to global tech supply chains, and the “memory super cycle” continues to shape industry fortunes.