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- [00:00]
A
So there's a lot of noise about AI, but time's too tight for more promises. So let's talk about results. At IBM, we work with our employees to integrate technology right into the systems they need. Now a Global workforce of 300,000 can use AI to fill their HR questions, resolving 94% of common questions. Not noise. Proof of how we can help companies get smarter by putting AI where it actually pays off, deep in the work that moves the business. Let's create smarter business. IBM,
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B
Bloomberg Audio Studios Podcasts, Radio news I'm Heidi Scragworth here in Sydney, and we have a very special guest, a very special event here in Sydney this morning. It is the Goldman Sachs Australia Week Alternatives and Macro Summit. And with me here is a CEO and chairman, David Solomon. Really great to have you with us. And I know you've been doing a lot of talking. We're about to make you do some more. Welcome to Australia. But of course, markets, Happy to be here. Wonderful to have you. Markets are really gripped by what's going on. Roughly 8,000 miles away, right, The Middle east conflict is still front and center. We don't know how extended it's going to be. You said yesterday that you were surprised by how benign markets were. Your team of strategists led by Peter Oppenheimer is saying, buy the deal. Do you see complacency at the moment?
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C
I don't see. I don't see complacency. I just, I think there's a lot of uncertainty around the direction of the conflict, how it'll be resolved, you know, what the off ramps are. And, you know, I think it's fair to say when you look at markets, market reactions have been relatively benign. And I certainly could have seen over the last couple of days, you know, a little bit more volatility. But I don't think people are being complacent. I think that market participants are looking and trying to say, you know, how is this going to play out? What's the end game? You can see, you know, good scenarios and more difficult scenarios. And as they have more information in the coming days, the coming week or two, you know, I think that will have an impact on risk premiums. I think at the moment, what market participants are really looking at is is this going to translate through to things that affect economic growth and activity, particularly energy supply chains? You know, so far, I think one of the reasons why markets reacting the way they are is they're encouraged that there is, you know, strong support for trying to ensure that doesn't happen. But it's uncertain, you don't know. And, and we'll see in the long run for portfolio allocation. And I know Peter Oppenheimer, Sharmin, most of our mari did a call for our wealth clients. You know, if you have portfolio allocation, there's nobody that's saying you should change your fundamental portfolio allocation because of what's going on. But for traders and day to day market participants that think about risk premia, you know, every single day, obviously they're watch very closely.
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B
What about the people that run big major global banks like yours?
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C
Right.
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B
Do you worry about the lack of predictability when it comes to policy, when it comes to how this potentially ends and when it ends, what's going on with your Middle east operations for example?
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C
I, I worry about a lot of things. We run a big global business, we have an extraordinary team and you know, I think one of the things that we have to accept is the world is a very complicated place. There's always a lot of uncertainty, there's always a lot of nuance there. But we have, you know, base beliefs on how economies will perform, how the world will evolve. And you know, we operate around that. But we always are prepared to risk manage and think about downside risks. And I think one of the things you have to do when you run a big, large financial institution is that when, you know, facts change or risk come up, you've always got to be prepared to pivot, to shift to de risk. And you know, we run our business, you know, that way, always run a big balance sheet and we, you know, we think about that every day but there's, there's nothing. While these are very, very significant events and I don't want to diminish in any stretch, you know, we've operated the firm through lots of very significant events year in, year out. And that's, that's part of what we do.
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B
Is it businesses normal then for say your offices in Saudi Arabia? Is there still travel going on? What's the communication with clients?
- [03:52]
C
That's, that is complex. We have, we've got a significant number of people in, you know, in those Middle east countries and obviously first and foremost we're concerned with their safety and you know, we're trying to do everything we can to support them and their families. I would not say, you know, it's business as usual in those markets. You know, all those markets for all businesses, you know, are operating work from home and, and you know, stay safe as a first priority. And so we'll just have to watch closely, you know, how things play out. And, you know, we're very, very focused on making sure our people and their families are safe and sound. And at the moment, that's our primary focus in that part of the world.
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B
Do you think there is a bit of an existential cloud over Dubai as a financial center now?
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C
Well, you know, I do think safety and security matters, and I wouldn't say I think it's a little bit premature to talk about existential clouds, but, you know, if you're living and operating in a place and you didn't anticipate this, it's quite scary and it's quite unsettling. And so, as I said, our primary focus is on the safety and security of our people there. We're working very hard to make sure that we're protecting them and their families.
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B
It's not as though the background prior to this conflict was, was crystal clear. Right. We just came off really trying to work out what the scare trade was going to be like. Do you still think that when it comes to that narrative of sustainability of, you know, I know Jamie Dimon said there's some players doing dumb things, for example, is that, does that still have further to go?
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C
I'm not sure I understood the question exactly. Are you talking about kind of AI investment, you know, growth? Look, AI is a fabulous, fabulous, incredible technology that is going to drive massive productivity gains through society. There's a lot of capital being deployed to grow AI capabilities around the world. Some of that capital is going to get reasonable returns. Some of that capital is not. They're going to be winners, they're going to be losers, as within any technology super cycle. I think we're early in that process, but I think it's exciting. And I actually look at the glass being half full. That doesn't mean that there won't be, you know, capital that's burned, companies that don't work out. But I think overall, the benefits to enterprise, productivity, you know, the economy, broadly, as this technology gets developed and deployed, is going to be quite exciting. And I'm looking at the optimism of, you know, what's ahead from all of this, and of course, try to manage the risk and downside, the speed bumps that will inevitably come along the way.
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B
I like the earlier said, you know, in your job you worry about a lot of things, right? Trade tariffs, US Policies, obviously one of them. And I think this is the first time we've spoken to you since the Supreme Court passed down their judgment. Does the further lack of predictability, stability on trade policy, is that also a Concern when it comes to business sentiment, when it comes to your views on how the US Economy is going to cope.
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C
You know, I think uncertainty does affect business sentiment broadly, but I just say I don't think that, I don't think that at the moment US Trade policy is that uncertain. I, you know, I think this administration has been clear about how they intend to drive a trade policy. I think the Supreme Court decision affects a certain discharge of tariffs into the economy. But there are certainly other avenues for the President. I think the president's made quite clear, you know, how he thinks about tariff and trade. And I think while this administration is in place, that is going to be a construct that we have to operate in. Of course, if there could be more and could be more certainty around exactly how that looks. And I think the important thing is how it will look in longer perpetuity. You know, of course the market would appreciate that, but I think the market operates knowing that there's a level of uncertainty around trade and trade policy that, that we just have to adapt to and we have to live with.
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B
I wanted to get a bit more on why you're here. For example, in beautiful Sydney. Do times like this of increased global uncertainty, does it make a relatively more idiosyncratic market like Australia more interesting?
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C
Well, Australia has always been interesting market. We have 400 people here. There are a lot of very, very important, you know, companies in Australia. We have a good wealth business in Australia. You know, Australia is an important market and an important economy not just for the world, but also for Goldman Sachs. You know, any market, any economy that's important is important for Goldman Sachs. Given our global footprint. I try to get here about once a year. I try to do it around an event like this. So we've got a lot of our clients put together, first of all, for this conference. But this has always been, you know, this has always been an important market, an important economy for Goldman Sachs. And, you know, I think that's consistent, persistent, you know, in any environment. So I was here the same week last week, and I'm excited to be back again this year.
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B
What else are you excited about around the region, though, as a House view, Goldman Sachs is very bullish on China. It's, of course, National People's Congress week as well. What's your feel about that market? Given some of the crosswinds on trade, on tech, on geopolitics?
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C
China's. China is one of the largest. China is one of the largest economies in the world. It's going to continue to be one of the largest economies in the world. You know, at the moment, I'm very focused on the bilateral relationship between the US And China. So I'm looking forward to President Trump's visit with President Xi that's planned for later this month, the beginning of April. It'll be interesting to see what comes out of that and, you know, whether or not China and the US can make more progress, you know, on their bilateral relationship. I think that's important for growth in the world and I think it's important for both the US And China. And I think at the moment that's fragile. And so I'm very curious to see, you know, how that progresses in the meantime. Chinese markets have done very well in the last 12 months. That's increased capital flows, you know, into the region. We obviously participate in that. But we're going to watch those bilateral meetings and progress in the bilateral relationship very closely.
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B
What would you like to come out in terms of deliverables from?
- [09:16]
C
I'd like to see, you know, more certainty and clarity around how the bilateral relationship will work going forward. I think there are things that the US wants, the things that China wants. I'd like more clarity around what that's going to look like, you know, not just in 2026, but, you know, over the coming years. And I think that's still relatively uncertain.
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B
What are we not talking about enough? I know we talked a little bit about private credit. You don't think it's sort of a systemic risk at this point?
- [09:42]
C
I, I think credit formation around the world is really correlated to, you know, economic growth and economic activity. I do think that we've gone. If I just look at the US market, which is obviously, you know, very. When you talk about private credit, a very, very large market, in the context of private credit, we've gone time without a credit cycle. We've gone a long time without a recession. I do think when you have these long dated cycles, there are a variety of things that happen. One, credit spreads narrow to lending standards. People have more capital deploy, they get aggressive lending standards deteriorate a little bit, due diligence standards deteriorate. And so we're watching very closely to see if there's been a little bit too much aggression, frothiness in those markets. But fundamentally, when you look at the underlying credit portfolios, particularly below investment grade credit, while there have been a bunch of idiosyncratic events where there have been problems, the broad portfolios are performing reasonably well. Why are they performing reasonably well? Because the economy is doing fine and it's very hard to have broad underperformance and a broad diversified credit portfolio if the economy is doing well. When we do have a slowdown in the economy, you will see it, I think, because of the length of the cycle, you probably will find places where the losses are higher than people expect. Expect. We're very, very focused on back leverage and things that could affect or amplify in a more difficult economic environment, you know, credit deployment. But at the moment, when you look broadly across portfolios, we're not seeing things that are super concerning. That's a completely different issue than retail participation and retail investors wanting liquidity from what are fundamentally illiquid products. And so that's getting a lot of attention, but that's different than the underlying credit portfolio. But I do think that when there is a slowdown in the economy or we do get to a place where we have, you know, a recession, you're going to see losses in credit portfolios and, you know, those losses could be meaningful. But, you know, we'll watch that closely while the economy is chugging along. You know, that's, that's not the primary focus.
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B
David, I know we must let you go, but we really appreciate you giving us your time in a very, very busy schedule. Thank you so much for joining us.
- [11:48]
C
Absolutely. Great to be with you. Thank you for having me.
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B
Also, Goldman Sachs Chairman and CEO David Solomon. Here at the Australia Week event, the
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