Bloomberg Talks: Hartree Partners Special Advisor Edward Morse Talks Oil & Gas Prices

Date: March 9, 2026
Host: Bloomberg (731Lex) with Co-host
Guest: Ed Morse, Special Advisor, Hartree Partners

Overview

This episode explores the energy market disruptions triggered by the latest Gulf war involving Iran, with a focus on oil and gas price shocks, market responses, geopolitical strategy, and global energy policy shifts. Ed Morse—renowned energy strategist—offers perspective on how this conflict compares to past crises, likely impacts on global markets, and the short- and long-term implications for energy security and policy.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Context and Severity of the Current Crisis

[00:37-01:24]

• Morse situates the current war as unprecedented, even compared to prior conflicts in the Gulf and the 1970s oil crisis.
  • Quote: “So this is pretty unique. So I put it more serious than anything we've seen since the early 1970s.” – Ed Morse [01:18]

2. Global Energy Market Reactions & Structural Rethinking

[01:24-02:21]

• Ed notes major economies were already rethinking energy dependencies—even before the crisis.
• China and Europe are doubling down on clean energy as a strategic defense against supply shocks.
• Emerging markets like India also reconsider energy security.
  • Quote: “China is energy dominant when you think of clean energy... there’s been a kind of worldwide rethink.” – Ed Morse [01:47]

3. Duration and Impact of Price Shocks

[02:21-03:09]

• Morse believes the disruption will be longer than U.S. officials suggest: “a few weeks” could easily turn into “a few months.”
• A special emphasis on natural gas: 20% of the world's seaborne gas is routed through this region (notably Qatar), and supply will not normalize quickly.

4. Dollar Impact and Regional Disparities in Pain

[03:09-04:00]

• The surge in the dollar magnifies the inflationary pain of energy price spikes for non-U.S. economies.
• Risks remain, including the Houthis in Yemen, backed by Iran, who could further jeopardize supply routes.

5. Market Pricing: Disconnect with Underlying Risks

[04:00-04:51]

• Market futures show “sanguine” expectations, but Morse argues futures curves are misleading during crises.
  • Quote: “The futures curve doesn't tell you very much... I wouldn't use that as a predictor.” – Ed Morse [04:28]

6. Why Gasoline Prices Lag Crude, and What’s Next

[04:51-06:39]

• Price increases at the pump have lagged the crude market due to inventory buffers, but this is temporary.
• Other regions (Asia) see sharper surges, particularly in jet fuel and diesel.
• Morse predicts gas prices will hit $4/gallon in the U.S. sooner than expected.
  • Quote: “That’s much more than the 15% increase we've seen in the US so the US is a laggard. ...We're going to see $4 at the pump more frequent, more sooner than we otherwise [would].” – Ed Morse [06:15]

7. WTI-Brent Convergence and Global Price Signals

[06:39-07:31]

• U.S. crude (WTI) now matches Brent because of increased export demand and lack of U.S. export restrictions.
  • Quote: “We're seeing the demand for WTI related crude skyrocketing... the world pricing is sorting itself out.” – Ed Morse [07:10]

8. Risk of Further Escalation: Price Doubling Scenario

[07:31-08:48]

• Morse outlines a plausible scenario where global oil prices surge another 50%—if Houthis cut off Red Sea shipping or Iranian regime intensifies conflict.
• He paints a tense picture with ongoing attacks and no sign of immediate de-escalation, warning the regime change in Iran has entrenched hardliners.
  • Quote: “We're not going to see the battlefield ending pretty soon... They chose the hard line way. So they're there for an existential threat and they're going to fight for the existential survival of the regime.” – Ed Morse [08:13]

9. Geopolitics: Rationale for War and Unintended Regime Hardening

[08:48-10:16]

• Transition to more hardline leadership in Iran was in part a reaction to Israeli/U.S. actions.
• U.S. perhaps underestimated the resilience or direction of Iranian leadership.
  • Quote: “He said it too often for you to not believe that regime change was certainly there.” – Ed Morse, on the U.S. administration [09:55]
  • Quote: “We expected ...this to be over in a couple of days and that certainly didn't happen.” – Ed Morse [10:16]

10. Policy Recommendations: Managing the Fallout

[10:25-12:12]

• Advice to governments: use strategic reserves and keep price shocks away from consumers where possible (more manageable in Europe than the U.S. due to regulatory structure).
• The G7 is considering a massive 300–400 million barrel release from reserves—bigger than after Russia's Ukraine invasion—but Morse warns it will take time for these measures to impact prices.
  • Quote: “That didn't stop prices from going up because it takes a while to redeploy oil... I think it'll be a good month or two before we see the weight of strategic stocks coming in the market.” – Ed Morse [11:38]

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “This is pretty unique. So I put it more serious than anything we've seen since the early 1970s.” – Ed Morse [01:18]
• “There’s been a kind of worldwide rethink about what to do in terms of dependence, and that includes emerging markets.” – Ed Morse [01:47]
• “We still have a big risk latently in the western side of, of the Arabian Peninsula... and they are a proxy still of Iran.” – Ed Morse [03:28]
• “We're being a little bit too sanguine. The futures curve doesn't tell you very much.” – Ed Morse [04:22]
• “We're going to see $4 at the pump more sooner than we otherwise would.” – Ed Morse [06:33]
• “We're seeing the demand for WTI related crude skyrocketing in a way that makes it get closer to where Brent has been trading.” – Ed Morse [07:04]
• “We see the western part of the Arabian Peninsula also shut off. That's 20 million a day.” – Ed Morse (On escalation risks) [07:53]
• “We're going to fight for the existential survival of the regime.” – Ed Morse [08:35]
• “We expected, I suspect they expected... this to be over in a couple of days and that certainly didn't happen.” – Ed Morse [10:16]
• “The release will obviously cause the market to fall, but how long that will last is another matter.” – Ed Morse [11:55]

Key Timestamps by Topic

• Severity of the conflict: [01:00-01:24]
• Global strategy shift: [01:45-02:21]
• Trajectory for normalization: [02:21-03:09]
• Currency impact on inflation: [03:09-04:00]
• Market complacency & futures curves: [04:00-04:51]
• Consumer gasoline prices: [04:51-06:39]
• WTI-Brent price convergence: [06:39-07:31]
• Scenario for price spike: [07:31-08:48]
• Iranian regime dynamics: [08:48-10:16]
• Advice for governments & G7 moves: [10:25-12:12]

Summary

Ed Morse’s appearance offers a sobering analysis of the current Gulf war’s unique threat to the global energy system, highlighting both the scale and complexity versus past incidents. He warns that market actors may be underestimating duration and severity, and that price relief via strategic reserves will be slow. There’s a pronounced shift toward energy security globally, but immediate action, especially in the U.S., is limited. The episode underscores how tightly interwoven geopolitics and global energy economics have become, and the potential for enduring, possibly destabilizing, shifts in both arenas.