Humilis's Brian Belski Talks Stock Market

Summary

Bloomberg Talks: Humilis's Brian Belski Talks Stock Market

Date: July 2, 2026
Host: Bloomberg (Karen Moscow & Nathan Hager)
Guest: Brian Belsky, Humilis

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Overview

This episode features Brian Belsky of Humilis offering his candid insights into the stock market as of mid-2026. The conversation covers investment strategies in large versus small/mid-cap stocks, how to think about artificial intelligence (AI) investments, financial sector opportunities, portfolio rebalancing, and even a few lighter sports remarks. Belsky’s perspective is shaped by long-term conviction and emphasizes discipline, selectivity, and the pitfalls of trying to chase every trend.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

Microsoft as a Long-Term Holding

• Main Insight: Belsky is steadfast in his view that Microsoft remains a prime holding despite recent market volatility.
• Quote:

  "Microsoft, we think has this war chest of cash... Microsoft has proven through the years that they can monetize these new things that they take on." — Brian Belsky [01:41]

• Belsky highlights Microsoft’s consistency and management quality, positioning it as a value stock with a “pristine” balance sheet.
• He contrasts Microsoft’s stability with more volatile tech peers, noting,

  "We just don't think that they're in the same league and that's why we're sticking with it." [04:35]

Navigating the AI Investment Landscape

• Main Insight: Belsky advises conviction and focus over chasing every AI-related stock.
• Quote:

  "The key thing to investing is, I think, is that you don't have to own everything. You don't have to own everything. Have conviction and stick with it." — Brian Belsky [09:18]

• Core AI holdings include Nvidia, AMD, Broadcom, and Qualcomm.
• Emphasizes “picks and shovels” approach and spotting second-derivative opportunities like data center infrastructure (e.g., Acuity Brands for cooling tiles) and utilities (Nextera, Southern Co.).
• Predicts cybersecurity as a major AI theme, favoring Palo Alto Networks and noting recent gains from CyberArk acquisition.

Small/Mid-Cap Stock Outlook

• Main Insight: Recent outperformance in the Russell 2000 is notable, but Belsky prefers the S&P 600 for quality.
• Quote:

  "If you take a look at the S&P 600 small cap SML, price to cash flow, balance sheet, earnings discernibility, better than large cap, better than large cap." — Brian Belsky [05:31]

• Draws a distinction between speculative gains in broader small-cap indices and the more stable fundamentals of S&P 600 companies.
• Sees growing search for liquidity from private equity in small caps.

Portfolio Rebalancing & Tax Sensitivity

• Main Insight: Advocates for disciplined rebalancing with an eye toward tax efficiency, especially for high-net-worth and separately managed accounts.
• Quote:

  "You never try to outsmart the market. But you use drift. Drift is you just let the positions kind of go over time." — Brian Belsky [06:57]

• Explains why he trims but rarely liquidates positions, highlighting the risks of large taxable gains.
• Satirical nod from Karen:

  "What you just heard was the clearest discussion of the madness of selling all of a winner... Bronze it on selling the top positions." — Karen Moscow [08:12]

Financials: “Barbell” Strategy

• Main Insight: Favors both the “big dogs” (major diversified banks) and very small regional banks, skipping the middle.
• Quote:

  "In our theme of owning the big ones and owning the really small ones, I think really works." — Brian Belsky [10:38]

• Highlights the relationship banking advantage of smaller banks like Glacier Bancorp, FNB, and Pinnacle.
• Notes the strength of J.P. Morgan, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, and Goldman Sachs in current capital markets and private wealth environment.
• Predicts further consolidation among mid-tier regional banks.

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On AI Uncertainty:

  "I don't even know what AI is going to do... the market's just saying we're selling now and we'll figure it out later." — Nathan Hager [02:28]

• On Satya Nadella’s Leadership:

  "Nadella is not normal. I think a huge body of the investment public doesn’t understand his internal drive." — Karen Moscow [03:35]
  "When he came in and brought more process and discipline... that’s where it really took off. So I’m a believer." — Brian Belsky [03:44]

• On Market Madness:

  "Come on, man. And Micron is a value stock. I just don't, I didn't get that. But me, we underperformed the value index by 200 basis points. We were still up double digits." — Brian Belsky [06:56]

• Humorous Asides:

  • Playful banter about high net worth definitions [08:37]
  • Minnesota sports gloom and its parallels to investing [12:00–12:46]

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Timestamps for Important Segments

• 01:07 — Karen Moscow introduces Brian Belsky and sets up Microsoft discussion.
• 01:41 — Belsky on Microsoft’s resilience and long-term value.
• 02:28 — AI, software stocks, and market confusion.
• 03:34 — Satya Nadella leadership impact.
• 04:51 — Small/mid-cap stocks and recent performance.
• 06:22 — The challenges and strategies of rebalancing in today’s market.
• 08:42 — Investing in AI: chips, infrastructure, and cybersecurity.
• 10:24 — Financial sector opportunities and “barbell” strategy.
• 11:43 — Prediction of regional bank consolidation.
• 12:00–12:46 — Lighthearted sports chat as a metaphor for caution and humility in investing.

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Tone & Atmosphere

• Conversational, realistic, and practical with a touch of dry humor.
• Belsky’s approach blends contrarian discipline with pragmatic optimism, emphasizing evidence, patience, and conviction.

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Summary Takeaway

Brian Belsky’s approach stresses the importance of long-term thinking, disciplined rebalancing, and selective conviction over trend-chasing. He is constructive on Microsoft and AI infrastructure, patient with small-cap quality, strategic in the financial sector, and sensitive to both risk and tax considerations. His insights are especially valuable for portfolio managers and sophisticated investors looking to navigate a volatile, AI-infused financial landscape.

Transcript

[Nathan Hager]

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[Brian Belsky]

Bloomberg audio Studios Podcasts Radio News this really important conversation

[Karen Moscow]

because it has been front and center in every conversation we had. One of the charms of Brian Belsky at Humilias with the success of going out on his own. This whole shop that he's done across Canada and across America is there's like Paul, it's, there's, it's not verboseness, it's not like, you know, what do you know, pages and you know, a million words and all that. Our pick is Microsoft. Brian Belsky discuss.

[Brian Belsky]

Good morning. You know, the three Bs of public speaking and writing are be brief, be bright.

[Karen Moscow]

Axios Johnson did that.

[Brian Belsky]

Okay, Microsoft, Microsoft, we think has this war, we know, has this war chest of cash. Microsoft has proven through the years that they can monetize these new things that they, that they take on. I think Microsoft in particular of all of the, you know, to call it a hyperscaler or software company's been unjustly beat up and as you've seen, the spending is not going to go away. But in terms of how on AI, by the way, but how they've been able to continue through a longer term perspective, manage these properties. That's why we own Microsoft and we're going to continue. Microsoft was down in the second quarter, hurt our portfolios. We still had great performance in the second quarter but at the end of the day we're longer term investors and we believe in hub the management there and we believe what they're doing.

[Nathan Hager]

It just comes down to what I find challenging. I think as you think about the software stocks and software as a service stocks is yes, I can see a case where I could disrupt a lot of their business but I don't even know what AI is going to do. No, I can't figure that out. And so much less than then to say Microsoft's going to be hurt or ServiceNow is going to be hurt or soft, you know. But I guess the market's just saying we're just, we're selling now and we'll figure it out later.

[Brian Belsky]

Yeah, I just like the meta news is confounding to me. I know everyone was excited about stock was up double digits but now they're spending on cloud and now they're pivoting this way and now they're trying to chase this building it versus spending on it. I just, I just think that Microsoft's been much more consistent in its operations and I want to stick with the consistent deliverers.

[Karen Moscow]

Jim Chanos with Bloomberg Money here two weeks ago nailed the meta thing. He calls it the Neo cloud. We can't figure out what to do with AI so we're going to compete with Amazon on the cloud. Nadella in major shout out Bradley Olson and Tina Lee at the Wall Street Journal with this definitive Nadella interview. I read his bio. Nadella is not normal. I think a huge body of the investment public doesn't understand his internal drive.

[Brian Belsky]

I don't think so. And remember too when he took over that company was, you know, after, after Steve and no one like Steve. I remember I was both at Piper and Merrill during those days and we had huge presence in the Pacific Northwest. Pacific Northwest in particular owned a lot of Microsoft stock and they did not like him. The private wealth perspective of that really started to when he came in and brought more process and discipline and how they were monetizing these new properties and moving away from the subscription service into more of the deliverable software and all that kind of stuff, that's where it really took off. So I'm a believer we're there. I think of a stock that now it's becoming more of a value stock. You take a look at the balance sheet and the price to free cash flow on that company, it looks pristine. So we really like it. It's much more contrarian, Paul, I would say than trying to pick the bottom and be a hero in Salesforce or Adobe. We just don't think that they're in the same league and that's why we're sticking with it.

[Nathan Hager]

We had a small mid cap portfolio manager come in this week and finally with a smile on her face because of her performance in the Russell 2000 is 2x out of the S&P 500 this year, which is, you know, doesn't happen very often. How do you think about small mid cap stocks?

[Brian Belsky]

No, we've been believers for a while and we've been wrong aside from the second quarter. And the way that we look at it is we look at the small mid cap indices within the S&P 1500 and if you take a look at the mid cap and the small cap, the SML dramatically outperformed the mid cap at like 500 or 600 basis points. And the reason why the Russell 2000 outperformed the S&P 600 is because you have a lot more companies in the Russell 2000 that don't own money. So there was Go Go Jojo, the juicier companies. But if you take a look at the S&P 600 small cap SML, price to cash flow, balance sheet, earnings discernibility, better than large cap, better than large cap. And the growth rates for the second half of the year are better too. So I think in this world of the need for liquidity and people love private equity, they love private markets. All these private equity, private market companies are smaller companies. So I think they're going to seek liquidity in small cap.

[Karen Moscow]

Brian Belsky with us here before jobs day. 20 minutes away. Lisa Mateo to follow on here in a bit, but thrilled to have the gentleman from Humiliat with us. I look at July 2ish and it tells me and people know where I am on rebalancing Sell your winners. I'm like really rebalancing this time around.

[Brian Belsky]

Violent. Because think about what Micron did to a lot of the indices. Now, full disclosure, we don't own Micron.

[Karen Moscow]

Do you rebalance?

[Brian Belsky]

Yes, you do. Because we did a lot in June, June 1st because of what happened in May. And so we had a couple positions that doubled in May and then we rebalanced back. We don't on Micro. We don't on Micron. But it messed up. It messed up some of the indices. For instance, if you take a look at the Russell 1000 value technology sector, okay, it was up over 100%. And come on, man. And Micron is a value stock. I just don't, I didn't get that. But me, we underperformed the value index by 200 basis points. We were still up double digits. I mean, it's crazy. So yeah, you have to rebalance. We use drift in our portfolios as you should because you never try to outsmart the market. But you use drift. Drift is you just let the positions kind of go over time. So say if you. My position, my core position, XYZ is 4% and it goes to 4.75%. I'm not going to rebalance back to 4.

[Karen Moscow]

So when you rebalance, you don't sell the whole position.

[Brian Belsky]

No, no, no, no, no, no, no. Because I think the biggest problem with institutional portfolio managers, and some of them took over our prior job that own 200 stocks, guys, right? They have 200 stocks in these big fancy portfolios. When you run separately, manage account portfolios, you're catering to Paul Sweeney high net worth. And he's got taxable gains in all these companies in these 50 stocks. If you blow out XYZ stock by owning it for 10 years, he's not going to be happy with you because you have a taxable gain. Or if you're an institutional person, you blow out positions, you don't have that same thing. So on an SMA like we run 40 to 50 stocks, period, we have low turnover and you save a position goes up to 6%, cut a half, you still own the position.

[Karen Moscow]

What you just heard there, folks, bronze it. We will have Belsky and Bloomberg Money. Because what you just heard was the clearest discussion of the madness of selling all of a winner with the memory of Benjamin Edwards the third right there. Bronze it on selling the top positions. Let's go. When they, you know, when they talk about high net worth, they never look at me.

[Nathan Hager]

They look at you.

[Karen Moscow]

I don't know what that's about.

[Brian Belsky]

Paul Sweeney with Brian Belsky.

[Nathan Hager]

What is your positioning in AI? How, how are you trying to play it right now? Is it still just own the chips or the picks and shovels? As people talk about. How do you think about it?

[Brian Belsky]

You know, we've owned, and we've had the very honor of owning Nvidia in various portfolios and various jobs since 2018 or so. So we're sticking with that. We love the amd, we love the Broadcom, Qualcomm for more value, but that's it. The key thing to investing is, I think is that you don't have to own everything. You don't have to own everything, have conviction and stick with it. But you know what I think people are missing is we're building out these data centers. So how do you build a data center, man? Well, people talk about Caterpillar. Well, we like this company called Acuity. We own it in our small mid cap and they make the tiles that go on top of the buildings between the ceiling and the ceiling and the top of where the tiles are. Because in between that are the wires. The wires heat up. So acuity makes these tiles that are cool enough to keep the heat. I mean it's really. But people aren't thinking like that. Right. And so stuff like that or old school power companies like Nextera because you got to plug in, you got to plug in the power or Southern Co. And so that's I think the next derivative down. I think the biggest theme though that some play is cybersecurity because I just don't think people understand it enough. And that's why we own Palo Alto. By far, I think from our viewers, the best company in there. They've integrated in a couple of new acquisitions. One of them Cyberark the last year or so that kind of took some time to get going, but they certainly got paid for owning Cyberark the last month or so.

[Nathan Hager]

Yes. Boy, Palo Alto has been a great stock, almost doubling in the last year to date here. What are we doing with financials here? Seems like I'm seeing deals left and right. Capital markets, business is great. What are we doing with financials?

[Brian Belsky]

Love, love, love. In our theme of owning the big ones and owning the really small ones, I think really works. Why the really small ones, Brian? Because the really small ones are the essence of the way that some of us in this room kind of grew up in the business relationships. They're getting the business from the commercial bank and the private bank that let's say the big, the big guys are not right in the regional communities. That's why we like the Glacier Bancorp's and the FNBs and the Pinnacles and things like that. But then you go to the big dogs where JP Morgan obviously multi divisional assets, they were part of the deal with SpaceX. We're going to see more investment banking in the next six months. They benefit from private wealth. Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, they've done very well. And I think.

[Nathan Hager]

Let's go back to Glacier Bancorp. It's in Montana, dude, there's nobody there.

[Karen Moscow]

Well, that's why it's colder than here.

[Brian Belsky]

It's colder. It's 83 fun 11 sunshine and degrees in New York. But I think it's probably like what, 65 there. I'll take that. Yeah, but I think the in between, I think what we didn't talk about is the in between regional banks. We're going to see some consolidation.

[Karen Moscow]

I got to get this in quick here. The person after you're so important. You know, we got to just get this in. So the vikings unload their GM. They steal for the Packers. September 30th. It will be cooler. The Vikings, like they've really made some significant.

[Brian Belsky]

They blew apart. They blew apart their front office. Yeah, they blew up the front office. They don't know who the quarterback's going to be. You know, you're welcome, Knicks fans, for the Timberwolves giving a cat. Now, what's going to happen with Minnesota sports? You know, me being a long term Minnesota sports fan. JJ Hardy or jj. JJ Hardy. JJ Is going to be let go and he's going to become like a Hall of Fame quarterback for somebody else. That's just the way that it works in Minnesota, man. I'm telling you. Garnett leaves, he wins a. He wins a. He wins the title with the Celtics. Ortiz leaves, goes to Boston, becomes a Hall of Fame baseball player.

[Karen Moscow]

I teared up that day. That was like, are you kidding? We have David Ortiz. Really? Yeah. So you're not thrilled with the Vikings this year?

[Brian Belsky]

I have to play defense and I'd rather be. I'd rather under promise and over deliver.

[Karen Moscow]

Okay. That's called being a Red Sox fan.

[Brian Belsky]

Go away.

[Karen Moscow]

Brian Belsky, thank you so much. What you heard there on rebalancing was just absolutely fabulous. And we'll do more with Mr. Belsky.

[Nathan Hager]

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[Brian Belsky]

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[Karen Moscow]

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[Brian Belsky]

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[Nathan Hager]

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[Brian Belsky]

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[Nathan Hager]

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