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- [00:00]
A
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- [01:12]
B
Bloomberg Audio Studios Podcasts Radio News so if I.
- [01:18]
C
Was to do a panel, let's say some fancy place like Davos. Yeah right now they would say, Mr. Keenan, who would you like to have on your panel? And I would say Ezra Prasad of Cornell and Ian Bremmer of Tulane and Stanford. Bremer and Prasad would be lights out. The Doom Loop is Ezra Prasad's new book with really interesting discussions of stability. And Ian Bremmer owns the high ground on this with every nation for itself, the J Curve and of course us versus them. Dr. Bremer joins us from Eurasia Group. I look at the Doom Loop from Prasad, Ian, and the heart of the matter is we are in some form of stability, moving to instability. Is that how you see it? There's instability out there?
- [02:11]
B
Yeah. And I like his book a lot. He's, you know, more of an economist. I'm a political scientist, so I'm focusing on the geopolitics specifically and I think it's cyclical. So I see this as a bust cycle because the balance of power is no longer aligned with the institutions, the architecture, the policies or the values. And that's particularly playing out with the Americans, the most powerful country stepping back from their own historic leadership. So I mean the good news is that that's very unlikely to get you the so called Thucydides trap a World War three historically usually when you have a move to instability in geopolitics it's because the, the major power is in decline and trying to hold on to its old system. The rising power wants to create a new. And that's not what's happening here. The United States is still the most powerful country. It's, it's just unilaterally saying it doesn't want to be in charge of collective security or free trade or promotion of democracy, of rule of law. So it's causing a lot of instability, but it's not causing global conflict.
- [03:29]
A
Ian, in your notes, you suggest that these countries, historically allies and maybe even foes of the United States, they are not decoupling from the US but they are de. Risking. How are they doing that?
- [03:44]
B
They're primarily doing it economically. And the reason it's mostly economic is because the global economy today is increasingly multipolar while the global security environment is still dominated by the United States. So the reality is that even if you don't trust or rely on the United States as a security ally, you don't have many good options. And it will take you a very long time. Even for the Europeans, who see this as an existential need of, yes, they're spending a lot of money on Ukraine, but they're buying American weapons. Yes, they're stepping up their own security, but they know, as Mark Ruta, the Secretary General of NATO, said in the last few days, how essential the Americans still are for the foreseeable future. Where when you think of the global economy, there are options. I mean, even Canada, which is so incredibly dependent on the United States, has the ability to diversify more effectively with the Europeans, with the Chinese, with others. And that's particularly true India, for example. The United States pushes India hard despite the relationship that Trump and Modi have. And Modi takes his time in doing a deal with the Americans and instead steps up his relations with the EU and with the Australians and stabilizes with China and the rest. So that, that, that effort that we are seeing to hedge is mostly happening in diversifying away from US Trade, from US Capital. And you know, those things, once they happen, they do have much more long term implications.
- [05:22]
A
Does, does this America first agenda of this second Trump administration, to what degree do you think it will empower China, empower Russia?
- [05:33]
B
I don't think it's empowering Russia at all. I do think it is empowering China. Russia's dug its own grave. In fact, they've dug hundreds of thousands of them over the last four years of the war in Ukraine. They are weaker as a consequence, their economy is weaker, their security environment is weaker, their diplomacy is weaker. They're basically becoming, you know, a second rate state to that has to, has to follow the lead of China. And that's not where Putin wants to be, clearly where China is actually in so many ways taking advantage of the United States being seen as unreliable. In part that is directly reaching out to countries to improve their bilateral relations. And in part it's stepping up China's role in, in these old institutions that the Americans don't value much anymore. So you will have noticed the Americans pulled out of the World Health Organization. They convinced Argentina to join them. Nobody else did. China immediately stepped up how much money they were giving to the WHO to $500 million. Why would they do that? Because if America's out, they get to be number one in influence. When Trump announced the Board of Peace, not in terms of Gaza coordination, but as potentially a replacement to many of the, of the operating principles that the United nations has, the Chinese immediately said we don't want to join that in.
- [07:06]
C
The same thing in the time we've got left. Ian, I think the question, I'm getting this all the time and I'm not informed like you, as simple as I can. What do you perceive post Trump? Do we return to what Paul and I knew years ago? Do we go to some form of amended new. What do you perceive in say 2028, 2030?
- [07:30]
B
Well, if Trump is followed by a much more predictable and reliable leader in the eyes of allies, then I think you will be able to, to normalize those relations from a very different base. In other words, permanent damage will have been done, diversification efforts will be in place. The Americans won't be leading the world the way they used to. But you won't see the continued trajectory towards chaos. If, on the other hand, Trump is replaced by a leader that is seen as not only more unilateralist but also just as unpredictable.
- [08:10]
C
Right.
- [08:10]
B
And just as willing to use American power against allies and adversaries alike. Then of course that trajectory will continue to deteriorate.
- [08:18]
C
We don't care. Ian, the only reason you're on today is pitchers and catchers with Red sox down at Fort Myers, JetBlue Park. You were behind home plate. I saw for the playoffs last year. What an improvement on The Red Sox. Dr. Bremmer. Can they do it again and improve further?
- [08:34]
B
Well, they can't do worse than the Patriots did this Sunday. The worst games I've ever seen. And but you know, you got to be hopeful for my Red Sox. I've got to be one of the only Red Sox out there that's also capable of rooting for the Yankees. When I see them in New York, it's a weird. It's a weird position to be in.
- [08:51]
C
It's a weird. There's a mental health issue there. Ian Bremmer, thank you so much. Regards to Moose as well.
- [08:58]
D
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