Bloomberg Talks – Instant Reaction: Apple Shares Gain as Sales Top Estimates
Date: October 30, 2025
Host: Carol Massar
Guests: Mark Gurman (Bloomberg News Managing Editor for Global Consumer Technology), Jay Goldberg (Senior Analyst, Semiconductors and Electronics, Seaport Research Partners)
Episode Overview
This episode delivers real-time analysis and market reaction to Apple’s fourth quarter earnings report for September 2025. As shares swing upwards despite headline misses—particularly in Greater China—Bloomberg’s Carol Massar, Apple expert Mark Gurman, and semiconductor analyst Jay Goldberg break down the numbers, context, and future outlook for Apple. The conversation provides insight into Apple’s continued resilience, service growth, and the complicated dynamics of the Chinese market, with a sharp focus on investor sentiment and upcoming product cycles.
Key Discussion Points & Insights
1. Apple’s Q4 2025 Results and Initial Stock Reaction
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Apple shares: The episode begins amid live after-hours trading, with Apple shares turning positive despite some initial stumbles.
- Carol Massar (01:47): “Apple shares actually moving into the green... up just ever so slightly. 3, 4, 10 of 1%.”
- Mark Gurman (01:55): “Investors... stocks up about 2.3% here.”
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Beats and misses across the board:
- Services: Stronger than expected.
- iPhone revenue: $49.03B vs $49.3B estimate (a slight miss).
- Greater China revenue: Major miss at $14.49B vs $16.43B expected (12% below consensus).
- Overall revenue: Topped $100B for the first time in a September quarter.
- Operating expenses: Came in line at $15.91B.
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Jay Goldberg (03:03): “Yeah, it looks okay. It's not, it's... not perfect. It's not totally clean, but it's got some good stuff. It's got some, you know, okay stuff.”
2. Deep Dive: Services, iPad, Margins, and China
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Services and iPad:
- Jay Goldberg (03:16):
- “Services is much stronger than I expected. iPhone was good. iPad was surprisingly good. I don't know if anyone tracks that anymore, but iPad was good.”
- “Gross margins were better than expected. I've been a little cautious about gross margins in consumer companies lately because memory prices are going up. But I don't see that in Apple's numbers.”
- Jay Goldberg (03:16):
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China weakness explained:
- Carol Massar (03:43): Highlights the 12% miss and asks about its significance.
- Jay Goldberg (03:51):
- “Given the state of the world... expecting too much from an American company selling in China right now is going to always disappoint.”
- “It's a trade truce, I think is the way that we heard about it today.” (04:01)
- On supply constraints: “The iPhone air is not available there. It's hard to get here. Production hasn't fully ramped yet... If you're a Chinese consumer and you're looking at it, you see the iPhone air coming, you’re going to hold off on your iPhone purchases now and wait for that.” (04:09)
3. Market Dynamics & What’s Next
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US vs. China–investor patience:
- Jay Goldberg (05:13):
- “I'm willing to wait on the story... Sometimes Apple just takes a while to get there. So I'm okay waiting. They need to solve it. That's really important. But they don't need to solve it this quarter.”
- “I would like to just hear them talk about supply chain and what's going on in China and what are the dynamics in the iPhone business.”
- Jay Goldberg (05:13):
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Upgrade cycle & product pipeline:
- Carol Massar (05:52): Asks if there’s a compelling reason to upgrade to iPhone 17.
- Jay Goldberg (05:57):
- “I think the air is pretty intriguing... I'm on the fence. I usually upgrade every year... Pretty sure they're going to have a foldable phone next year. So that'll be exciting.”
- “Everyone I talk to has the air... raves about it. They're enthusiastic about this iPhone in a way that I haven't heard people be enthusiastic about an iPhone in many years.”
4. Analyst Walkthrough: Market Perspective (with Timestamps)
- Stock swings and drivers
- Mark Gurman (07:00):
- Major product highlights: “iPhone obviously grew tremendously 6% year over year. They beat in nearly every product category except the iPad.”
- Downplays the iPad miss: “Extremely slight miss on Wall Street forecasts... those are just forecast numbers that get made up anyways.”
- On China: “A big decline and miss in Greater China... attributed to the iPhone air delay.”
- On Tim Cook's outlook: “Cook told news outlets... that the December quarter would grow 10 to 12% on an annual basis... a fantastic jump for them... Apple hasn’t provided guidance in a very long time.”
- Mark Gurman (07:00):
5. Apple’s Vulnerability in China & Strategic Outlook
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Carol Massar (08:21): Probes Apple’s position in China: “How vulnerable is Apple in China?”
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Mark Gurman (08:42):
- “They’re certainly vulnerable in China but they have obviously a big retail portfolio there of about 50 stores... They need to start launching products that are specific to the Chinese market. They still don’t have their AI strategy together in China... Once AI is implemented and iPhones in China next year, if that begins helping turn some things around... we'll see.”
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On pent-up demand: “We’re going to have some pent up demand in China now for the current quarter, the first quarter of the holiday period because the iPhone air didn’t go on sale in September.”
6. Executive Guidance & Bullish Outlook
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Carol Massar (09:17 & 10:17): Summarizes the bullish outlook:
- “Apple gave a bullish outlook for its crucial holiday sales period reported record annual profit today.”
- Cites CFO Kevin Parik, who expects “total company revenue to grow 10 to 12% year over year... with iPhone revenue growing double digits.”
- Notes this is “probably why we are seeing Apple shares do that turnaround now up almost 4% in the aftermarket.”
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Q4 Wrap-up (10:17–10:56):
- iPad revenue just below estimates: $6.95B.
- Products revenue above estimates.
- China revenue: big miss at $14.49B (12% below consensus).
- EPS above: $1.85.
- Mac revenue beats: $8.73B.
- Services revenue: $28.75B (beat).
Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments
- Jay Goldberg (03:03): “It’s not perfect. It’s not totally clean, but it’s got some good stuff. It’s got some… okay stuff.”
- Jay Goldberg (05:13): “Remember when Apple Maps launched 10 years ago? It was terrible... Now I use Apple Maps more than I use Google Maps. It’s gotten better. Sometimes Apple just takes a while to get there.”
- Mark Gurman (08:42): “They need to start launching products that are specific to the Chinese market. They still don’t have their AI strategy together in China.”
- Carol Massar (10:17): “Pretty remarkable to see the turnaround, but you know, that's what happens and you get more detail from executives.”
Important Segment Timestamps
- 01:47 – Apple shares turn positive after initial volatility
- 02:01 – Revenue beats/misses recap; China highlighted as major miss
- 03:03–03:51 – Jay Goldberg on the results’ “good stuff” and China reaction
- 04:09 – China’s iPhone Air supply constraints discussed
- 05:13 – Patience on Apple’s story and future prospects
- 05:52 – Compelling reasons to upgrade to iPhone 17?
- 07:00 – Mark Gurman walkthrough: Stock moves, product highlights, and Cook’s guidance
- 08:21–08:42 – Apple’s China vulnerability plus AI and innovation needs
- 09:17–10:17 – Executive guidance and holiday quarter outlook
- 10:17–10:56 – Rapid-fire recap of Q4: iPad, Products, Mac, Services, and China numbers
Summary
The episode captures market and expert reactions to Apple’s strongest September quarter ever, with revenue exceeding $100B despite a “big big miss” in Greater China. Analysts praise growth in services, solid iPhone performance, and margin resilience while raising concerns over Chinese demand and product adaptation. Buoyed by rare holiday quarter guidance from Tim Cook and CFO Kevin Parik, Apple shares surge into the green, reversing early declines while hardware, services, and product cycles are poised to drive the next chapter. Investors and analysts see the long game: Apple’s innovation cycles, supply chain prowess, and China strategy will determine its momentum into 2026.