Instant Reaction: Apple Shares Gain as Sales Top Estimates

Summary

Bloomberg Talks – Instant Reaction: Apple Shares Gain as Sales Top Estimates

Date: October 30, 2025
Host: Carol Massar
Guests: Mark Gurman (Bloomberg News Managing Editor for Global Consumer Technology), Jay Goldberg (Senior Analyst, Semiconductors and Electronics, Seaport Research Partners)

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Episode Overview

This episode delivers real-time analysis and market reaction to Apple’s fourth quarter earnings report for September 2025. As shares swing upwards despite headline misses—particularly in Greater China—Bloomberg’s Carol Massar, Apple expert Mark Gurman, and semiconductor analyst Jay Goldberg break down the numbers, context, and future outlook for Apple. The conversation provides insight into Apple’s continued resilience, service growth, and the complicated dynamics of the Chinese market, with a sharp focus on investor sentiment and upcoming product cycles.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Apple’s Q4 2025 Results and Initial Stock Reaction

• Apple shares: The episode begins amid live after-hours trading, with Apple shares turning positive despite some initial stumbles.

  • Carol Massar (01:47): “Apple shares actually moving into the green... up just ever so slightly. 3, 4, 10 of 1%.”
  • Mark Gurman (01:55): “Investors... stocks up about 2.3% here.”

• Beats and misses across the board:

  • Services: Stronger than expected.
  • iPhone revenue: $49.03B vs $49.3B estimate (a slight miss).
  • Greater China revenue: Major miss at $14.49B vs $16.43B expected (12% below consensus).
  • Overall revenue: Topped $100B for the first time in a September quarter.
  • Operating expenses: Came in line at $15.91B.

• Jay Goldberg (03:03): “Yeah, it looks okay. It's not, it's... not perfect. It's not totally clean, but it's got some good stuff. It's got some, you know, okay stuff.”

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2. Deep Dive: Services, iPad, Margins, and China

• Services and iPad:

  • Jay Goldberg (03:16):
    • “Services is much stronger than I expected. iPhone was good. iPad was surprisingly good. I don't know if anyone tracks that anymore, but iPad was good.”
    • “Gross margins were better than expected. I've been a little cautious about gross margins in consumer companies lately because memory prices are going up. But I don't see that in Apple's numbers.”

• China weakness explained:

  • Carol Massar (03:43): Highlights the 12% miss and asks about its significance.
  • Jay Goldberg (03:51):
    • “Given the state of the world... expecting too much from an American company selling in China right now is going to always disappoint.”
    • “It's a trade truce, I think is the way that we heard about it today.” (04:01)
    • On supply constraints: “The iPhone air is not available there. It's hard to get here. Production hasn't fully ramped yet... If you're a Chinese consumer and you're looking at it, you see the iPhone air coming, you’re going to hold off on your iPhone purchases now and wait for that.” (04:09)

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3. Market Dynamics & What’s Next

• US vs. China–investor patience:

  • Jay Goldberg (05:13):
    • “I'm willing to wait on the story... Sometimes Apple just takes a while to get there. So I'm okay waiting. They need to solve it. That's really important. But they don't need to solve it this quarter.”
    • “I would like to just hear them talk about supply chain and what's going on in China and what are the dynamics in the iPhone business.”

• Upgrade cycle & product pipeline:

  • Carol Massar (05:52): Asks if there’s a compelling reason to upgrade to iPhone 17.
  • Jay Goldberg (05:57):
    • “I think the air is pretty intriguing... I'm on the fence. I usually upgrade every year... Pretty sure they're going to have a foldable phone next year. So that'll be exciting.”
    • “Everyone I talk to has the air... raves about it. They're enthusiastic about this iPhone in a way that I haven't heard people be enthusiastic about an iPhone in many years.”

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4. Analyst Walkthrough: Market Perspective (with Timestamps)

• Stock swings and drivers
  • Mark Gurman (07:00):
    • Major product highlights: “iPhone obviously grew tremendously 6% year over year. They beat in nearly every product category except the iPad.”
    • Downplays the iPad miss: “Extremely slight miss on Wall Street forecasts... those are just forecast numbers that get made up anyways.”
    • On China: “A big decline and miss in Greater China... attributed to the iPhone air delay.”
    • On Tim Cook's outlook: “Cook told news outlets... that the December quarter would grow 10 to 12% on an annual basis... a fantastic jump for them... Apple hasn’t provided guidance in a very long time.”

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5. Apple’s Vulnerability in China & Strategic Outlook

• Carol Massar (08:21): Probes Apple’s position in China: “How vulnerable is Apple in China?”

• Mark Gurman (08:42):

  • “They’re certainly vulnerable in China but they have obviously a big retail portfolio there of about 50 stores... They need to start launching products that are specific to the Chinese market. They still don’t have their AI strategy together in China... Once AI is implemented and iPhones in China next year, if that begins helping turn some things around... we'll see.”

• On pent-up demand: “We’re going to have some pent up demand in China now for the current quarter, the first quarter of the holiday period because the iPhone air didn’t go on sale in September.”

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6. Executive Guidance & Bullish Outlook

• Carol Massar (09:17 & 10:17): Summarizes the bullish outlook:

  • “Apple gave a bullish outlook for its crucial holiday sales period reported record annual profit today.”
  • Cites CFO Kevin Parik, who expects “total company revenue to grow 10 to 12% year over year... with iPhone revenue growing double digits.”
  • Notes this is “probably why we are seeing Apple shares do that turnaround now up almost 4% in the aftermarket.”

• Q4 Wrap-up (10:17–10:56):

  • iPad revenue just below estimates: $6.95B.
  • Products revenue above estimates.
  • China revenue: big miss at $14.49B (12% below consensus).
  • EPS above: $1.85.
  • Mac revenue beats: $8.73B.
  • Services revenue: $28.75B (beat).

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Jay Goldberg (03:03): “It’s not perfect. It’s not totally clean, but it’s got some good stuff. It’s got some… okay stuff.”
• Jay Goldberg (05:13): “Remember when Apple Maps launched 10 years ago? It was terrible... Now I use Apple Maps more than I use Google Maps. It’s gotten better. Sometimes Apple just takes a while to get there.”
• Mark Gurman (08:42): “They need to start launching products that are specific to the Chinese market. They still don’t have their AI strategy together in China.”
• Carol Massar (10:17): “Pretty remarkable to see the turnaround, but you know, that's what happens and you get more detail from executives.”

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Important Segment Timestamps

• 01:47 – Apple shares turn positive after initial volatility
• 02:01 – Revenue beats/misses recap; China highlighted as major miss
• 03:03–03:51 – Jay Goldberg on the results’ “good stuff” and China reaction
• 04:09 – China’s iPhone Air supply constraints discussed
• 05:13 – Patience on Apple’s story and future prospects
• 05:52 – Compelling reasons to upgrade to iPhone 17?
• 07:00 – Mark Gurman walkthrough: Stock moves, product highlights, and Cook’s guidance
• 08:21–08:42 – Apple’s China vulnerability plus AI and innovation needs
• 09:17–10:17 – Executive guidance and holiday quarter outlook
• 10:17–10:56 – Rapid-fire recap of Q4: iPad, Products, Mac, Services, and China numbers

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Summary

The episode captures market and expert reactions to Apple’s strongest September quarter ever, with revenue exceeding $100B despite a “big big miss” in Greater China. Analysts praise growth in services, solid iPhone performance, and margin resilience while raising concerns over Chinese demand and product adaptation. Buoyed by rare holiday quarter guidance from Tim Cook and CFO Kevin Parik, Apple shares surge into the green, reversing early declines while hardware, services, and product cycles are poised to drive the next chapter. Investors and analysts see the long game: Apple’s innovation cycles, supply chain prowess, and China strategy will determine its momentum into 2026.

Transcript

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[Barry Ritholtz]

This.

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Is a breaking news update from Bloomberg. Instant reaction and analysis from our 3,000 journalists and analysts around the world.

[Carol Massar]

Apple shares actually moving into the moving into the green Carol. They are up just ever so slightly. 3, 4, 10 of 1%.

[Mark Gurman]

I don't see a new headline but investors cut coming in is stocks up about.0 2.3% here.

[Carol Massar]

Okay, well there were some beats and there were some misses. Let's start with the misses fourth quarter greater China revenue. A big big miss there. $14.49 billion. The estimate was for $16.43 billion. Overall revenue though coming in above $100 billion that for the first time ever for the September quarter, Greater China revenue 12% below consensus estimate. Services came in with a nice beat. Another miss, surprisingly the iPhone 49.03 billion versus $49.3 billion.

[Mark Gurman]

Yeah, Mark Gurman saying operating expenses, expenses which everyone is now closely watching thanks to Metta, came in line with expectations of 15.91 billion. I'm sure we will hear More about investing on the call. That's coming from our Mark Gurman, who covers Apple so closely and looks at consumer tech overall. Let's get to it with Jay Goldberg. He's senior analyst, semiconductors and electronics at Seaport Research Partners. He's got a buy on app. Joining us from San Francisco. Take it away, Apple. What do you think?

[Jay Goldberg]

Yeah, it looks okay. It's not, it's, it's not perfect. It's not totally clean, but it's got some good stuff. It's got some, you know, okay stuff.

[Carol Massar]

Yeah, go ahead, Carol. Well, what's good?

[Mark Gurman]

What's okay?

[Jay Goldberg]

I mean, just going against my numbers, it looks like services is much stronger than I expected. IPhone was good. IPad was surprisingly good. I don't know if anyone tracks that anymore, but iPad was good. Gross margins were better than expected. I've been a little cautious about gross margins in consumer companies lately because memory prices are going up. But I don't see that in Apple's numbers. The China stuff, you pointed that out, I think that's concerning. Not entirely surprising.

[Carol Massar]

It's not surprising, but it's 12% below consensus. It surprised some people.

[Jay Goldberg]

Yeah. Just given the state of the world. I think expecting too much from an American company selling it in China right now is, is going to always disappoint. But, you know, hopefully we have a trade deal and that all goes away.

[Carol Massar]

It's a trade truce, I think is the way that we heard about it today.

[Mark Gurman]

Trade truce.

[Carol Massar]

Is a trade truce enough for that to go away?

[Jay Goldberg]

I think so. I think more, more practically what was going on in China is the iPad, the iPhone air is not available there. It's hard to get here. Production hasn't fully ramped yet. And I think that's going to be the real hit. Right. And this is Apple. They know how to get their supply chain in time for the year end holiday shopping season. And I don't think I've had, I don't think the iPhone air is readily available in China. So I think that will, that will help. And so if you're a Chinese consumer and you're looking at it, you see the iPhone air coming, you're going to hold off on your iPhone purchases now and wait for that.

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All right.

[Mark Gurman]

Shares of Apple now up about 1% here in the aftermarket. So bouncing around, no doubt about it. Our Mark Gurman on our live blog who covers Apple and often is breaking exclusives on the company, noting that while China is harsh, they are likely pleased investors. They are likely pleased with the Overall revenue growth of 8%, the giant services number. That's something Jay just pointed out. And the 6% year over year, iPhone growth overall, a solid quarter. So top of mind for you, like what is it that you would. What do you want to know more from when it comes to Apple here?

[Jay Goldberg]

Jay, I think I'm willing to wait on the story. I know your previous guest was talking about that and he's absolutely right. The story is important for Apple, but I don't think it's important today. I can wait six months, nine months, a year for them to sort it out. Remember when Apple Maps launched 10 years ago? It was terrible. It was a joke. Now I use Apple Maps more than I use Google Maps. It's gotten better. Sometimes Apple just takes a while to get there. So I'm okay waiting. They need to solve it. That's really important. But they don't need to solve it this quarter. I would like to just hear them talk about supply chain and what's going on in China and what are the dynamics in the iPhone business. I think that's most important.

[Carol Massar]

Is there a compelling reason for people to upgrade to 17 to the iPhone 17?

[Jay Goldberg]

I think the air is pretty intriguing. I'm on the fence. I usually upgrade every year. I think I'm going to hold out though because I'm pretty sure they're going to have a foldable phone next year. So that'll be exciting. But I think that everyone I talk to has the air is just raves about it. They're enthusiastic about this iPhone in a way that I haven't heard people be enthusiastic about an iPhone in many years.

[Mark Gurman]

Just to rehash, we've got now shares of Apple up about 1.8% here in the aftermarket. So this is despite those disappointing sales in China, which did fall short of analyst estimates, but strong over sales in the overall sales in the period. Hey, let's go to our L A Bureau for a moment. We're going to come back to Jay Goldberg in just a minute or two. Mark Gurman is Bloomberg News managing editor for Global Consumer Technology. He is out there in our L A Bureau. Mark, fascinating in a short period of time, 12 minutes to see the stock being sold off a little bit to now rallying almost 2%. Walk us through this quarter. What stands out here?

Yeah, what stands out here is iPhone obviously grew tremendously 6% year over year. They beat in nearly every product category except the iPad. Had an extremely slight miss on Wall street forecasts and again, those are just forecast numbers that get made up anyways. So I don't think too big of a deal there. The big one though is a big decline in mist in Greater China. I think some of that can be attributed to the iPhone air delay which was not expected when they originally announced the iPhone air. They anticipated a September release alongside the other models. That model has been doing decently in China since it was released just about a week ago now. The other thing to point out is the seesaw you saw originally the stock dipped on the China development and maybe iPhone sales weren't as strong as some had anticipated. But Tim Cook told news outlets that got pre briefed on the Apple earnings results earlier today that the December quarter would grow 10 to 12% on an annual basis which is obviously a fantastic jump for them. That is a year over year growth in the holiday period we have not seen for a very long time and Apple hasn't provided guidance in a very long time because of COVID and everything that's happened since then. So it's pretty significant.

[Carol Massar]

Yeah. Shares up 2.9% as we speak right now. Mark, just one more question for you and then I know you got to run on China and the big miss on China you said it's not too surprising yet still came in 12% below consensus estimates is just I'm not going to say Apple should throw in the towel in China, but how vulnerable is Apple in China?

[Mark Gurman]

They're certainly vulnerable in China but they have obviously a big retail portfolio there of about 50 stores. As I've said multiple times, they need to start launching products that are specific to the Chinese market. They still don't have their AI strategy together in China. We'll see once AI is implemented and iPhones in China next year if that begins helping turn some things around and we'll see we're going to have some pent up demand in China now for for the current quarter, the first quarter of the holiday period because the iPhone air didn't go on sale in September during the September period.

All right Mark, we know you got to run over to the TV side so appreciate you jumping on with us. Mark Gurman, he's Bloomberg News Managing editor for Global Consumer Tech. Really as we remind everybody our go to on Apple breaking all these exclusive and right now the stock is trending higher now up about 3.5%. I will point out that Mark mentioned some news that the chief Financial Officer had shared with some various media outlets. I'm just looking at the Financial Times and again just going back to that. Apple gave a bullish outlook for its crucial holiday sales period reported record annual profit today. The CFO Kevin Parik saying Apple expects total company revenue to grow 10 to 12% year over year in the three months to December with iPhone revenue growing double digits. So that's what Mark was talking about and that is probably why we are seeing Apple shares do that turnaround now up almost 4% in the aftermarket.

[Carol Massar]

Yeah, pretty remarkable to see the turnaround, but you know, that's what happens and you get more detail from executives. The call hasn't even started yet, so we'll wait for the call also to start and maybe we'll see some more movement there too. Just to repeat, fourth quarter iPad revenue coming in ever so slightly below estimates at $6.95 billion. Products revenue coming in above estimates. Greater China revenue a big miss there. $14.49 billion, 12% below consensus estimates of $16.43 billion. Fourth quarter earnings per share coming in above estimates at $1.85. Mac revenue beating at $8.73 billion. Fourth quarter services revenue also a beat there, $28.75 billion.

[Mark Gurman]

Quite a turnaround in the aftermarket trade.

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