Bloomberg Talks

Episode: John Bolton Talks Venezuela, US Access to Oil Reserves
Date: January 6, 2026
Host: Nathan Hager & Karen Moscow
Guest: John Bolton (former US National Security Adviser, ex-UN Ambassador)

Episode Overview

This episode features an in-depth discussion with former US National Security Adviser John Bolton about recent developments in Venezuela following the ouster of President Nicolás Maduro, the state of US-Venezuela relations, prospects for Venezuelan democracy, implications for global oil markets, and the wider geopolitical chess game involving China, Russia, and Iran. The conversation vividly explores US leverage in Venezuela, the limitations of American influence, and the international ripple effects of the crisis.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Ouster of Maduro: Real Change or Cosmetic Shift?

Time: 00:58 – 02:02

• Bolton supports efforts to remove Maduro and acknowledges opposition's legitimate victory.

• He warns that removing Maduro as the figurehead doesn't equal disbanding the regime's real power structures.

• Expresses concern about US administration's overtures to Delsey Rodriguez and old guard figures, seeing this as a risky belief that these individuals can enable a true transition.

  “I’m worried that we’ve removed the face of the regime, but not the regime itself.”
  — John Bolton [01:44]

2. US Leverage and Policy: Military and Economic Tools

Time: 03:21 – 04:58

• Discussion of US embargo, threat of military force, and whether these tools provide sufficient leverage.

• Bolton critiques the current administration's day-to-day, “ad hoc” approach and skepticism over cooperation with entrenched regime officials.

• Casts doubt on the rapid recovery of Venezuela’s oil sector, cautioning against over-optimism.

  “Anybody who thinks the Venezuelan oil industry is going to emerge from the ashes in a matter of weeks or months or even a couple of years, doesn’t know how bad the situation is.”
  — John Bolton [04:43]

3. US Investment & the Myth of an Oil Boom

Time: 05:26 – 06:13

• Bolton is doubtful that major US oil executives are eager to invest amidst political instability and low oil prices.

• Warns against “hot air” and planning disconnected from Venezuelan realities.

  “The political situation is unstable. By the way, the price of oil is still at 55 to $60 a barrel. I’m not sure anybody thinks that more capital investment, more drilling, more oil on the market is going to benefit the oil companies at this point.”
  — John Bolton [05:43]

4. The Role of Opposition Leader Maria Karina Machado

Time: 06:13 – 07:48

• Discusses Machado’s exile and her media outreach to regain influence.

• Bolton believes the US damaged her credibility and the broader opposition by dismissing her.

• Jokes about Trump’s rumored desires regarding the Nobel Peace Prize.

  “My recommendation would be giving the Nobel Peace Prize medal that you get ... give it to Trump, otherwise you know what he’s going to do.”
  — John Bolton [07:11]

5. Geopolitical Stakes: China, Russia, Iran, and the Global Oil Chessboard

Time: 07:49 – 09:59

• Focus shifts to China’s deep energy interests in Venezuela (buying ~80% of output), their reluctance to lose access to reserves, and wider Belt and Road ambitions in Latin America.

• Considers unseen machinations by China, Russia, Cuba, and Iran to prop up remnants of the Maduro regime.

  “Venezuela has the largest oil reserves in the world, more even than Saudi Arabia, and yet it produces an insignificant amount of oil. ... China buys about 80% of the production according to the most recent statistics. So I don’t think Beijing is going to sit idly by while a new government comes in that ... possibly [could] exclude China from, from the Venezuelan reserve.”
  — John Bolton [08:40]

6. US Security Doctrine, Greenland, and Iran

Time: 09:59 – 11:37

• Bolton addresses America’s most urgent security interests: instability in Iran and its effect on global order; potential (if unlikely) US claims to Greenland and their damaging impact on NATO alliances.

• Stresses the importance of serious, cooperative security planning, not wishful adventurism.

  “This regime in Tehran is very weak and I think the levels of discontent in the country have never been higher and the world would be a lot safer if the regime of the Ayatollahs fell and you could get some kind of alternative, hopefully free government in Iran.”
  — John Bolton [10:16]

  “If we did [seize Greenland], it would destroy the NATO alliance. But even this chatter is irresponsible, isn’t taking into account the real threats we face in the United States.”
  — John Bolton [10:57]

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “I wish it were true. I wish, I wish I could stop meetings like that that easily. But he’s making that up ... if he wants to believe it, let it. Let him tell that to the court.”
  — Bolton on Maduro’s story of a thwarted 2018 Trump meeting [03:05]

• “There’s a lot of hot air out there about what’s going on, and that’s dangerous because if your planning is not based on reality, when reality finally strikes, you have no plan B to back up to.”
  — John Bolton [06:00]

Timestamps of Important Segments

• 00:58 — Bolton critiques the superficial “removal” of Maduro
• 03:52 — US leverage and regime change prospects
• 05:26 — Bolton on feasibility of foreign investment in Venezuela
• 06:13 — Machado’s exile, US strategy, and the “Nobel Peace Prize” quip
• 07:49 — Geopolitical risk: China, Russia, Iran in Venezuela
• 09:59 — US doctrine, impact of Tehran instability and Greenland controversy

Tone & Language

• The tone is frank and pragmatic throughout, marked by Bolton’s signature acerbic humor and skepticism about simplistic solutions.
• The discussion is laced with historical analogies, policy caution, and geopolitical realism, keeping engagement both high-level and accessible.

Summary prepared for listeners seeking the crux of this significant policy discussion, spotlighting John Bolton’s candid, sometimes biting, assessment of US options and constraints in Venezuela and the wider geopolitical arena.