John Bolton Talks Venezuela, US Access to Oil Reserves

Summary

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Bloomberg Talks

Episode: John Bolton Talks Venezuela, US Access to Oil Reserves
Date: January 6, 2026
Host: Nathan Hager & Karen Moscow
Guest: John Bolton (former US National Security Adviser, ex-UN Ambassador)

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Episode Overview

This episode features an in-depth discussion with former US National Security Adviser John Bolton about recent developments in Venezuela following the ouster of President Nicolás Maduro, the state of US-Venezuela relations, prospects for Venezuelan democracy, implications for global oil markets, and the wider geopolitical chess game involving China, Russia, and Iran. The conversation vividly explores US leverage in Venezuela, the limitations of American influence, and the international ripple effects of the crisis.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Ouster of Maduro: Real Change or Cosmetic Shift?

Time: 00:58 – 02:02

• Bolton supports efforts to remove Maduro and acknowledges opposition's legitimate victory.

• He warns that removing Maduro as the figurehead doesn't equal disbanding the regime's real power structures.

• Expresses concern about US administration's overtures to Delsey Rodriguez and old guard figures, seeing this as a risky belief that these individuals can enable a true transition.

  “I’m worried that we’ve removed the face of the regime, but not the regime itself.”
  — John Bolton [01:44]

2. US Leverage and Policy: Military and Economic Tools

Time: 03:21 – 04:58

• Discussion of US embargo, threat of military force, and whether these tools provide sufficient leverage.

• Bolton critiques the current administration's day-to-day, “ad hoc” approach and skepticism over cooperation with entrenched regime officials.

• Casts doubt on the rapid recovery of Venezuela’s oil sector, cautioning against over-optimism.

  “Anybody who thinks the Venezuelan oil industry is going to emerge from the ashes in a matter of weeks or months or even a couple of years, doesn’t know how bad the situation is.”
  — John Bolton [04:43]

3. US Investment & the Myth of an Oil Boom

Time: 05:26 – 06:13

• Bolton is doubtful that major US oil executives are eager to invest amidst political instability and low oil prices.

• Warns against “hot air” and planning disconnected from Venezuelan realities.

  “The political situation is unstable. By the way, the price of oil is still at 55 to $60 a barrel. I’m not sure anybody thinks that more capital investment, more drilling, more oil on the market is going to benefit the oil companies at this point.”
  — John Bolton [05:43]

4. The Role of Opposition Leader Maria Karina Machado

Time: 06:13 – 07:48

• Discusses Machado’s exile and her media outreach to regain influence.

• Bolton believes the US damaged her credibility and the broader opposition by dismissing her.

• Jokes about Trump’s rumored desires regarding the Nobel Peace Prize.

  “My recommendation would be giving the Nobel Peace Prize medal that you get ... give it to Trump, otherwise you know what he’s going to do.”
  — John Bolton [07:11]

5. Geopolitical Stakes: China, Russia, Iran, and the Global Oil Chessboard

Time: 07:49 – 09:59

• Focus shifts to China’s deep energy interests in Venezuela (buying ~80% of output), their reluctance to lose access to reserves, and wider Belt and Road ambitions in Latin America.

• Considers unseen machinations by China, Russia, Cuba, and Iran to prop up remnants of the Maduro regime.

  “Venezuela has the largest oil reserves in the world, more even than Saudi Arabia, and yet it produces an insignificant amount of oil. ... China buys about 80% of the production according to the most recent statistics. So I don’t think Beijing is going to sit idly by while a new government comes in that ... possibly [could] exclude China from, from the Venezuelan reserve.”
  — John Bolton [08:40]

6. US Security Doctrine, Greenland, and Iran

Time: 09:59 – 11:37

• Bolton addresses America’s most urgent security interests: instability in Iran and its effect on global order; potential (if unlikely) US claims to Greenland and their damaging impact on NATO alliances.

• Stresses the importance of serious, cooperative security planning, not wishful adventurism.

  “This regime in Tehran is very weak and I think the levels of discontent in the country have never been higher and the world would be a lot safer if the regime of the Ayatollahs fell and you could get some kind of alternative, hopefully free government in Iran.”
  — John Bolton [10:16]

  “If we did [seize Greenland], it would destroy the NATO alliance. But even this chatter is irresponsible, isn’t taking into account the real threats we face in the United States.”
  — John Bolton [10:57]

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “I wish it were true. I wish, I wish I could stop meetings like that that easily. But he’s making that up ... if he wants to believe it, let it. Let him tell that to the court.”
  — Bolton on Maduro’s story of a thwarted 2018 Trump meeting [03:05]

• “There’s a lot of hot air out there about what’s going on, and that’s dangerous because if your planning is not based on reality, when reality finally strikes, you have no plan B to back up to.”
  — John Bolton [06:00]

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Timestamps of Important Segments

• 00:58 — Bolton critiques the superficial “removal” of Maduro
• 03:52 — US leverage and regime change prospects
• 05:26 — Bolton on feasibility of foreign investment in Venezuela
• 06:13 — Machado’s exile, US strategy, and the “Nobel Peace Prize” quip
• 07:49 — Geopolitical risk: China, Russia, Iran in Venezuela
• 09:59 — US doctrine, impact of Tehran instability and Greenland controversy

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Tone & Language

• The tone is frank and pragmatic throughout, marked by Bolton’s signature acerbic humor and skepticism about simplistic solutions.
• The discussion is laced with historical analogies, policy caution, and geopolitical realism, keeping engagement both high-level and accessible.

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Summary prepared for listeners seeking the crux of this significant policy discussion, spotlighting John Bolton’s candid, sometimes biting, assessment of US options and constraints in Venezuela and the wider geopolitical arena.

Transcript

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[Nathan Hager]

John Bolton, I'm sure has some ideas about this, though, and it's a great pleasure to have the former national security adviser with us from President Trump's first term, former U.S. ambassador to the United nations and founder of the foundation for American Security and Freedom. John Bolton, welcome back to Bloomberg TV and Radio. I know you have strong feelings about this and you've been around the block when it comes to Venezuela in the first term. Can I just start by asking you if you think the administration acted correctly last weekend?

[John Bolton]

Well, I think it was the right thing to do to begin the process of getting the Maduro regime out of power and turning the government of Venezuela back over to the people. There's no doubt that in 2024, as in 2018, Maduro stole the election the opposition had won legitimately and really are the legitimate government of Venezuela. But I think we've removed Maduro, but the regime is still there. There's no regime change at. And I'm very concerned that the way the president attacked Maria Karina Machado, the leader of the opposition, said she didn't have respect in the country. Really, the opposition wasn't up to governing. And turning to the likes of Delsey Rodriguez and really Maduro's henchmen and henchwomen who are still there and believing they're going to be a transition, it puts us in a very difficult position. I'm worried that we're we've removed the face of the regime, but not the regime itself.

[Nathan Hager]

Right. Yeah. Well, to that end, I know that you had concerns about Maduro in the president's first term, and we did a little bit of digging on this. Having had sat down with Maduro, my colleague Eric Schatzker in 2021 traveled to Caracas to talk to him about global politics. And Maduro said at the time he was in talks with the first Trump administration with you, John Bolton, around a meeting at the UN General assembly in 2018. Maduro specifically implicated you as having canceled that meeting. Listen to what he told us in 2021.

[Nicolás Maduro]

I was about to personally meet him on September 2018 with President Donald Trump. When I went to the UN General assembly in New York, we got a call from the White House. But we knew about John Bolton's pressure and that of other people around Donald Trump to prevent his attempt to meet me. If we had met, it had been a different story today.

[Nathan Hager]

John Bolton, is that true and to what extent, if so, did that moment inform Donald Trump's views on Venezuela today?

[John Bolton]

Well, I wish it were true. I wish, I wish I could stop meetings like that that easily. But he's making that up and, but it's a good story. So if he wants to believe it, let it. Let him tell that to the court.

[Karen Moscow]

Ambassador Bolton, if we're looking at what is going to happen next here, there's a lot of different messaging, a lot of different rhetoric. We hear from President Trump that the US Is going to run Venezuela. But if we look at what other advisers are saying, we keep hearing the idea that there's a lot of leverage points here by the US the embargo on oil, the military armada poised, still potentially pointing at Venezuela. Do you think that the US has enough leverage to make change in, in Venezuela from afar through these kind of pressure points?

[John Bolton]

Well, I'd like to know what the plan is, if that's what they think they're going to do. I'd be the happiest person around if the rest of the Maduro regime collapsed tomorrow. But when you hear from the administration, the usual anonymous sources, that they think they can work with Delsey Rodriguez to transition to something, I don't know what the something is and that the Venezuelan oil industry is just going to emerge from the ashes and suddenly be a big producer again. I think people are dreaming. I think this is a very difficult and dangerous situation. I think that the administration has acted in an ad hoc, day to day fashion that doesn't guarantee failure. But let's be clear. If the objective is to turn Venezuela into a society where its people actually govern it, and maybe that's not Trump's intention, but if that is, they're a long way from it. And anybody who thinks the Venezuelan oil industry is going to emerge from the ashes in a matter of weeks or months or even a couple of years, doesn't know how bad the situation is.

[Karen Moscow]

So then what is it going to take to help fuel that turnaround? Because we have reporting, as we mentioned at the top of the show, people familiar telling Bloomberg News that part of why this White House thinks that it can work with Delsey Rodriguez is because she could serve as that bridge between the government and the private sector because it seems like there has to be such an emphasis on potential investment and rebuilding the infrastructure in order for Venezuela to get on sound economic footing.

[John Bolton]

Well, I don't know what they, what they base that on. And I'd like to know what CEO of what major American oil company is just getting all of his top advisers together to get on a plane to go to Caracas and put billions and billions of capital expenditures into Venezuela. The political situation is unstable. By the way, the price of oil is still at 55 to $60 a barrel. I'm not, I'm not sure anybody thinks that more capital investment, more drilling, more oil on the market is going to benefit the oil companies at this point. I think there's a lot of hot air out there about what's going on, and that's dangerous because if your planning is not based on reality, when reality finally strikes, you have no plan B to back up to.

[Nathan Hager]

You mentioned Maria Karina Machado. She turned up on Fox News last evening of all places on the Hannity program, presumably to get the attention of Donald Trump. Here's what she said.

[Maria Karina Machado]

I'm planning to go back to Venezuela as soon as possible. As I've always said, Sean, every day I make a decision where I am more useful for costs. That's why I stayed in hiding for over 16 months. And that's why I decided to go out, because I believed that at this moment, I mean, more useful to our cost. Been able to speak out from where I am right now, but I'm planning to go as soon as possible back home.

[Nathan Hager]

She's talking about sharing her Nobel Peace Prize somehow with Donald Trump. Could she be a partner or has the administration turned away from her permanently?

[John Bolton]

Well, I think they damaged her and the opposition very badly on Saturday. I think the opposition, just ordinary people inside Venezuela wonder what it means when the US doesn't trust its leadership. Now maybe she can work her way back into his good graces. My recommendation would be giving the Nobel Peace Prize medal that you get. The Nobel foundation can make another one just for you. But give it to Trump, otherwise you know what he's going to do. Theodore Roosevelt won the Nobel Peace Prize for mediating the war between Russia and Japan during his term as president. And his Nobel Prize hangs on the wall of the Roosevelt Room in the White House. I've been worried recently. Trump's just going to take it off the wall so he can have it for himself. So Mrs. Machado seem hers. Maybe that'll take care of that.

[Nathan Hager]

Wow.

[Karen Moscow]

We also want to talk about potential ripple effects here. What could come next when it comes to other countries. And I'm actually particularly interested about the potential impacts for China, of course, a huge importer of Venezuelan crude. But China's made a lot of significant inroads when it comes to Latin America signing on signatories to its belt and road infrastructure initiatives. Could this hurt Beijing's efforts to make those inroads in Latin America? How is this changing the calculus in terms of the, the U.S. beijing competition?

[John Bolton]

Well, I think the most important American strategic interest in Venezuela is the increasing influence of malign foreign powers that don't have the best interest of the United States at heart. That certainly starts with Russia and Cuba. That was the main problem back in 2018 and 2019. But Iran and China are big players on the scene now. And as you say, China has an enormous concern with Venezuela's oil reserves and its production. The Chinese look for oil wherever they can find it. They're an energy poor country whose economy depends on getting these foreign sources. And by most estimates, including the estimates of the US Government, Venezuela has the largest oil reserves in the world, more even than Saudi Arabia, and yet it produces an insignificant amount of oil. Of that oil it produces, China buys about 80% of the production according to the most recent statistics. So I don't think Beijing is going to sit idly by while a new government comes in that, that may be more hospitable to American investment and possibly exclude China from, from the Venezuelan reserve. So what China is doing behind the scenes, we don't know. There were high level Chinese meeting with Maduro literally within a day or two of his being grabbed over the weekend. And what, what policies China's pursuing, what aid it may be giving to what remains of the Maduro government. What Russia and Cuba and Iran are doing, we don't know. But I don't think they're just going to withdraw quietly from the scene.

[Nathan Hager]

Well, you know, as we consider what many are now referring to as the Dunro Doctrine, John Bolton, I wonder who you think should worry more right now, Greenland or Iran.

[John Bolton]

Well, it's, it's, I think, I think Iran should be more worried given the protests which continue to grow all across Iran, not just in Tehran. This regime in Tehran is very weak and I think the levels of discontent in the country have never been higher and the world would be a lot safer if the regime of the Ayatollahs fell and you could get some kind of alternative, hopefully free government in Iran. I think what Trump says about Greenland and his interest in taking control of Greenland is very harmful to the NATO alliance. You know, Greenland, part of Denmark, is a NATO ally. Denmark's been an ally of the United States for years. And you have advisers to the president saying on national television that Denmark's claim to the island is illegitimate and nobody will oppose American force if we decide to use it. If we did, it would destroy the NATO alliance. But even this chatter is irresponsible, isn't taking into account the real threats we face in the United States. We have a legitimate security interest in Greenland. So does the entire NATO alliance. And if we just took this out of the spotlight and worked cooperatively together, I think we could ensure greater security, not just for Greenland, but for the entire alliance.

[Karen Moscow]

All right, John Bolton, former national security adviser in President Trump's first term, former U.S. ambassador to the United nations and founder of the foundation for American Security and Freedom. Ambassador Bolton, thanks so much for joining here us here on Bloomberg Television and Radio.

[Podcast Host]

Bloomberg Daybreak is your best way to get informed first thing in the morning, right in your podcast feed. Hi, I'm Karen Moscow.

[Nathan Hager]

And I'm Nathan Hager. Each morning we're up early putting together the latest episode of Bloomberg Daybreak US Edition. It's your daily 15 minute podcast on the latest in global news, politics and international relations.

[Podcast Host]

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[Nathan Hager]

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