Bloomberg Talks – Julia Pollack Talks Jobs

Date: December 16, 2025
Guest: Julia Pollak, Chief Economist, US Department of Labor
Host/Interviewer: Bloomberg

Episode Overview

This episode of Bloomberg Talks features Julia Pollak, Chief Economist at the US Department of Labor (and former Chief Economist at ZipRecruiter), for an in-depth conversation on the state of the US labor market. Pollak addresses recent jobs data, the impact of governmental policies and economic disruptions, the outlook for employment growth, youth unemployment, and the future-facing effects of artificial intelligence and policy coordination. Her perspective offers listeners insights into how recent shocks and ongoing initiatives may shape the jobs landscape in 2026 and beyond.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

The State of the US Labor Market

• Context on Recent Data Distortions
  Pollak argues that the most recent jobs report is skewed by two specific, temporary effects:

  • Over 10,000 federal workers have transitioned off payrolls—some entering temporary "frictional unemployment."
  • The "Schumer shutdown" displaced about 900,000 federal workers, which also led to stoppages among federal contractors.
    Quote:

  "This report overstates, understates the strength of the labor market right now because there are two huge temporary distortions at play in the data..."
  —Julia Pollak (01:27)

• Anticipated Recovery
  Pollak expects that as these effects fade, the unemployment rate will "jump back down very soon."
  (01:27-02:07)

Youth Unemployment & Macro Policy

• No Immediate Alarm on Youth Unemployment
  The youth unemployment rate is reportedly at the same level as early in the Trump administration, despite recent noise.

  • Pollak acknowledges a larger challenge now due to "Biden inflation hangover" and the subsequent Fed rate hikes.
    Quote:

  "We have a bigger challenge this time because of the Biden inflation hangover, which forced the Fed to slam the brakes on the economy."
  —Julia Pollak (02:14)

• 2026 Economic Comeback
  Pollak is optimistic about a "huge comeback" starting in 2026, referencing the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" and its stimulative policies:

  • "Full and accelerated expensing for business investments"
  • "No tax on tips, no tax on overtime"
    Quote:

  "We are setting the stage for a huge comeback in 2026 and beyond."
  —Julia Pollak (02:34)

Federal Reserve Policy and Economic Outlook

• On Rate Cuts and Market Expectations
  The panel discusses whether the Fed needs to cut rates soon. Pollak notes:

  • Slower job growth from mid-2022 to mid-2024 was due to high interest rates.
  • Current rates are "still restrictive" and hurting parts of the economy.
    Quote:

  "Rates right now are still restrictive and they are still a problem for, for much of the economy."
  —Julia Pollak (03:45)

• Dual Mandate and Non-inflationary Growth
  The Fed's dual mandate (employment and price stability) is achievable, according to Pollak, through “deregulation” and “reshoring incentives.”
  Quote:

  "This president has shown that his policies deliver both. ... Through deregulation, through reshoring incentives, we're going to see this labor market take off again and in a non inflationary way."
  —Julia Pollak (04:21)

Revitalizing US Manufacturing

• Reshoring, Tariffs, and Job Growth
  The administration hopes that reshoring, tariffs, and construction investment will revitalize Midwestern manufacturing and the “American dream.”
  • The latest data shows the largest construction jobs increase in over a year, signaling coming growth in manufacturing employment.
    Quote:

  "This latest report shows the largest increase in construction jobs in over a year. And that's really the front end of those investments..."
  —Julia Pollak (05:23)

Artificial Intelligence and the Future of Work

• AI’s Effect on Labor
  Pollak points to an AI-driven demand spike for skilled trades, advanced manufacturing, and workers with AI expertise.

  • The Labor Department is focused on aligning labor and education policy—offering “job-connected training” over expensive, less-job-ready degrees for the first time. Quote:

  "The AI boom is driving huge demand for workers in the skilled trades, in advanced manufacturing, and of course workers with AI skills."
  —Julia Pollak (06:32)

  "For the first time, labor policy and education policy are pulling in the same direction. We've aligned labor and education for the first time ever."
  —Julia Pollak (06:32)

Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Leadership

• Personnel and Nominations
  The conversation briefly turns to the vacant BLS Commissioner role.

  • Pollak demurs on whether she's up for the post, indicating that's up to the President.
  • She does, however, underscore the priority of “aggressive labor market data modernization” focusing on real-time, accurate, learner- and worker-centric data.
    Quote:

  "I have at the Labor Department made it my priority to push forward a very aggressive labor market data moder agenda that puts workers and learners first and gives them more access to the data collected on them."
  —Julia Pollak (07:31)

  "Whoever comes in [as BLS Commissioner] has very clear mandate from the President to put workers and learners at the center ... to change the data paradigm to a real time data paradigm and to make sure that the data is accurate and has the utmost integrity."
  —Julia Pollak (08:22)

Memorable Quotes & Moments with Timestamps

• On recent jobs data distortions:
  “This report overstates, understates the strength of the labor market right now because there are two huge temporary distortions at play in the data here.”
  —Julia Pollak (01:27)

• On the post-pandemic economic challenge:
  “We have a bigger challenge this time because of the Biden inflation hangover, which forced the Fed to slam the brakes on the economy.”
  —Julia Pollak (02:14)

• Setting up for a jobs comeback:
  “We are setting the stage for a huge comeback in 2026 and beyond.”
  —Julia Pollak (02:34)

• On restrictive rates:
  “Rates right now are still restrictive and they are still a problem for, for much of the economy.”
  —Julia Pollak (03:45)

• On the dual mandate success:
  “This president has shown that his policies deliver both. ... Through deregulation, through reshoring incentives, we're going to see this labor market take off again and in a non inflationary way.”
  —Julia Pollak (04:21)

• AI and workforce development:
  “For the first time, labor policy and education policy are pulling in the same direction. We've aligned labor and education for the first time ever.”
  —Julia Pollak (06:32)

• On labor market data modernization:
  “I have at the Labor Department made it my priority to push forward a very aggressive labor market data moder agenda that puts workers and learners first and gives them more access to the data collected on them.”
  —Julia Pollak (07:31)

Notable Segment Timestamps

• Overview of jobs report distortions: 01:27–02:07
• Youth unemployment and economic policy: 02:07–02:34
• Stimulus policies and 2026 outlook: 02:34–03:06
• Fed interest rates and employment: 03:45–04:16
• Reshoring and construction job growth: 05:23–05:47
• Impact of AI on workforce and training: 06:32–07:13
• BLS Commissioner discussion and data agenda: 07:23–08:43

Episode Takeaways

• Recent jobs data are not as weak as headlines suggest—temporary distortions skew the numbers.
• Policymakers are betting on stimulative measures and infrastructure spending to drive job growth, especially in construction and manufacturing.
• AI is poised to reshape the labor market, creating demand for skilled trades and tech talent, with policy now aligning labor and education priorities.
• Labor market data modernization is a focal point for future BLS leadership, with real-time, worker-centric information as a top goal.
• Overall, Pollak projects cautious optimism for the US jobs market, seeing potential for a robust recovery by 2026.