ManpowerGroup Chief Strategy Officer Becky Frankiewicz Talks Labor Market

Summary

Bloomberg Talks: “ManpowerGroup Chief Strategy Officer Becky Frankiewicz Talks Labor Market”

Episode Date: October 3, 2025
Host: John (Bloomberg)
Guest: Becky Frankiewicz, Chief Strategy Officer, ManpowerGroup
Co-Host: Anne Marie

---

Overview

This episode dives deep into the current state and emerging trends of the U.S. labor market, leveraging real-time insights from ManpowerGroup’s data during a government shutdown that paused the official jobs report. Becky Frankiewicz shares expert analysis on labor mobility, the impact of AI on hiring, the entry-level job squeeze, supply-side questions, wage dynamics, and sector-specific trends.

---

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Labor Market in Transition

• Real-Time Data vs. Missing Reports: Despite the government shutdown halting official payroll data, Frankiewicz emphasizes that ManpowerGroup’s own data shows a labor market in flux—not stagnating.
  • “It’s a strange no jobs report, jobs Friday... the labor market keeps moving and our data shows a market in transition.” (Becky, 00:47)
• Three Major Trends:
  • “Job Hugging” Replaces Job Switching:
    • Workers are holding onto current jobs more than ever; job switching has dropped 50% in two years.
    • “Job hugging is the new job switching... Switching is down 50% in the last two years. So workers are staying put.” (Becky, 00:52)
  • Lateral Moves Over Promotions:
    • Internal changes (“micro mobility”) are more common than external promotions. Lateral moves—changing titles within the same company—have increased as employers retain existing talent.
    • “Lateral is the new vertical... people change titles but not change companies.” (Becky, 01:04)
  • Growth Shifts—not Disappears:
    • Roles with immediate impact (like data scientists, tech, manufacturing) are growing, though this growth is less visible.
    • “Growth isn’t gone, it’s just moved... you just have to look harder to find it.” (Becky, 01:17)

2. Entry-Level Job Market Squeeze

• AI and Entry-Level Job Slowdown:
  • There’s reduced demand for graduates with little experience; employers want hires who contribute immediately.
    • “Employers are prioritizing people who have actual experience because again, they want immediate impact.” (Becky, 02:11)
  • Entry-level job postings are down 6%, to a four-year low (under 7 million jobs posted).
    • “Total jobs posted have dropped under 7 million... the lowest level in four years.” (Becky, 02:54)
  • The weak entry-level market is fueled by both economic caution and “wait and see” attitudes about AI.
    • “It’s a bit of wait and see [on AI], but it’s also a bit of economic uncertainty causing me to prioritize today versus tomorrow.” (Becky, 03:11)

3. Tech and AI's Labor Market Footprint

• Tech-Forward Hiring:
  • Despite softness in traditional software developer roles, positions like data scientist, data architect, and security specialist surge.
  • “Tech forward roles are surging again... Database scientists, data architects, anything on security is surging today.” (Becky, 03:55)
  • Software developer demand is down 50% year over year at entry level, but remains top three by volume.
    • “It’s still one of the top three entry level roles. It’s down almost 50% year over year, but it’s still in volume one of the top three.” (Becky, 04:09)

4. Labor Supply and Mobility

• Not a Supply-Side Issue, but a Mobility Stagnation:
  • Labor market softness is not from lack of workers, but from reduced movement (switching) between jobs.
  • “We're not seeing significant supply side issues... What I would say we're seeing is a bit of stagnation in terms of mobility.” (Becky, 05:06)
  • Mobility traditionally fuels growth; reduced switching (down 50%) hinders economic dynamism.
    • “When people stay put, it is harder to free up some of the supply to actually generate this transition that normally underpins our economy.” (Becky, 05:13)

5. Wage Premiums and Incentives

• Switching Bonuses Diminish:
  • The extra pay for switching jobs has dropped below historical averages (now ~6.75% rather than 7%+).
    • “The premium on switching a job... dropped to about six and three quarters. So we're not incenting people to move.” (Becky, 05:47)
  • Increased “job hugging” is aligned with less wage pressure and more incentives to stay put.

6. Sectoral Dynamics: Where Is Movement Still Happening?

• Switching is Alive in Few Sectors:
  • Only in construction and financial markets do employees have significant leverage to move (and benefit from higher wages or promotions).
    • “We're seeing only two sectors... construction and financial markets.” (Becky, 06:30)
  • Financial analysts in major metros like New York continue to switch employers.

7. Early Economic Indicators from Hiring Patterns

• Cost-Conscious Hiring:
  • Non-premium retailers and cost-focused companies are hiring, while high-end retail is not.
    • “Who’s hiring today? It is the cost conscious consumer companies... Domino’s is hiring, Lowe’s is hiring.” (Becky, 07:20)
  • Cautious consumer behavior—fewer trips, less in basket—mirrors cautious labor moves.
    • “People are still very cost conscious, uncertain about what's coming, and holding on to their dollars like they're holding on to their jobs.” (Becky, 07:43)

---

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On labor market stalling (mobility):
  • “Job hugging is the new job switching.” (Becky, 00:52)
• On AI and hiring:
  • “Employers are not hiring to develop people. They're hiring to actually get benefit from their hires today.” (Becky, 02:11)
• On job-switch bonuses:
  • “We’re not incenting people to move and we're seeing an increase in people who stay put.” (Becky, 05:52)
• On sectoral differences:
  • “Construction and... financial markets. Those two roles still have quite a bit of agency and we are seeing switching there.” (Becky, 06:32)
• On cost-conscious hiring as an early signal:
  • “Domino's is hiring, Lowe's is hiring... We're not seeing the high end retailers hiring, we're seeing the more accessible retailers hiring.” (Becky, 07:20)

---

Timestamps of Key Segments

• 00:47 – 01:40: Becky lays out the three current labor market trends
• 02:05 – 03:11: AI’s impact and the drop in entry-level demand explained
• 03:49 – 04:32: Tech-forward hiring, AI, and employer attitudes
• 05:06 – 05:25: Mobility stagnation and supply-side discussion
• 05:43 – 05:52: Wages, job-switch bonuses, and “job hugging”
• 06:30 – 06:42: Sectors with active job switching
• 07:15 – 07:43: Early consumer and hiring trends as economic indicators

---

Conclusion

This episode offers a rich, real-time snapshot of a changing U.S. labor market. The headline: Job movement and entry-level opportunities are slowing, not from lack of jobs, but from a confluence of economic anxiety, the onset of AI, and cautious corporate and worker behaviors. At the same time, cost-conscious sectors and tech-driven roles show signs of selective resilience, and only a few industries see the “old rules” of job-switching bonuses and vertical mobility still apply.

For anyone navigating the job market, the message is clear: Stability and experience are valued, lateral moves are up, and the future remains uncertain as both businesses and workers pause to assess what's next.

Transcript

[Indiana University Announcer]

Indiana University is shaping the future of healthcare, advancing discoveries that become treatments for Alzheimer's, obesity and cancer and training the providers trusted to deliver them. See how IU solves what's next iu Edu Impact.

[Podcast/Radio Station Announcer]

Bloomberg Audio Studios Podcasts Radio.

[John (Host/Interviewer)]

News Let's turn back to the labor market. The government shutdown halting the release of the payroll data. Becky Frankowitz of Manpower Group, one of the world's leading staffing companies, highlights the following. The official jobs report might be on pause, but the labor market keeps moving and our data shows a market in transition. Becky joins us now for more. Becky, welcome to the show. It's been too long. What are we transitioning from and to what?

[Becky Frankowitz (Manpower Group Expert)]

Yeah, so first it's a strange no jobs report, jobs Friday. So usually we say happy jobs Friday and it is still a happy jobs Friday because we see real time, real world data. And John, we're watching three trends. First, first job hugging is the new job switching. So we're not seeing workers switch jobs anymore. We're seeing them hold onto their jobs. In fact, switching is down 50% in the last two years. So workers are staying put. The second big trend that we're seeing is lateral is a new vertical. Employers are holding on to their talent. And so this is there's this change called micro mobility where we're seeing people change titles but not change companies. And the final piece I'd say is growth isn't gone, it's just moved. So we're seeing growth in immediate benefit roles, a lot of growth in the data scientist, data based architects, things that are tech forward. And we're seeing some shifts in even manufacturing where we're seeing blue collar workers like engineers, people who are on the front line in terms of manufacturing starting to grow. Logistics is a little bit soft, of course, education, retail is showing some strength, but there is still growth. You just have to look harder to find it.

[Anne Marie (Co-Host/Interviewer)]

Becky Is there growth in entry level jobs?

[Becky Frankowitz (Manpower Group Expert)]

ANNE MARIE it's one of the top things we're watching. So if you said what are you watching closely, I would tell you impact of AI and entry level jobs. We are seeing reduced demand for the educated yet inexperienced, and that is people coming out of college. So employers are prioritizing people who have actual experience because again, they want immediate impact. Employers aren't hiring to develop people. They're hiring to actually get benefit from their hires today. And that is impacting our entry level professionals.

[Anne Marie (Co-Host/Interviewer)]

Historically, what kind of time can you reckon this back to? When did we see such a weak environment for entry level jobs?

[Becky Frankowitz (Manpower Group Expert)]

Yeah, it's been a long time, Anne Marie. It's not, we're not in the, we're not in the 2008 stage yet, which was a huge crisis. But we are seeing a drop of about 6% in terms of the demand for entry level jobs. And it's coming at the time the overall job market is continuing to cool. It's not just cooled, it's continuing to cool. We see total jobs posted again, I don't need BLS to tell you this. We look every day, total jobs posted have dropped under 7 million. It's always been a 7 million mark, under 7 million to the lowest level in four years. And we're seeing this overall slowing in jobs and we're seeing a change in the kinds of jobs people are hiring. Entry level. And in part it's a bit of wait and see on AI. And I heard one of your prior guests talk about that. It's a bit of wait and see, but it's also a bit of economic uncertainty causing me to prioritize today versus tomorrow.

[John (Host/Interviewer)]

Becky, can we just pick up on the point? Where are you seeing that? How's it showing up and how do you draw a distinction between what is driven by AI and what's driven by traditional broader economic concerns?

[Becky Frankowitz (Manpower Group Expert)]

Yeah, well, it's hard, it's hard to break apart, John, if I'm honest. But I'll tell you what the data is showing us, and the data is showing us that tech forward roles are surging again. Database scientists, data architects, anything on security is surging today. Of course we've seen some softening in software developers, but guess what, back to entry level roles. It's still one of the top three entry level roles. It's down almost 50% year over year, but it's still in volume one of the top three. So we're seeing a pretty balanced view on AI right now. Employers are still telling us that if they're more tech forward as an employer digitizing faster, they're intending to hire more. We're waiting to see that play out. But right now I would say we're seeing a balanced view on AI, but there is a lot of wait and see on the promise of the impact of what I can give our economy.

[John (Host/Interviewer)]

So Becky, you think any supply side issues? Because the big debate on Wall street is yes, we've seen a step down in payrolls growth, but we've also seen a step down in supply. And the economists will come on the program and some of them disagree with each other. Some might say this is bad we need to respond to it. Others might say, well, this is a supply side story. Yes, you've had a step down in payrolls, but you've not had an increase in labor market slack. From your standpoint, is there a supply side issue? Do you see that showing up in the business?

[Becky Frankowitz (Manpower Group Expert)]

Yeah, we're not seeing significant supply side issues, John. What I would say we're seeing is a bit of, and I'm not using it economically, a bit of stagnation in terms of mobility. People are staying put. And when people stay put, it is harder to free up some of the supply to actually generate this transition that normally underpins our economy. When I tell you that job switching is down 50%, 50 in the last two years, that is significant. And the that's not having an impact on overall supply, but it is having an impact on mobility and mobility generally leads to growth in our economy.

[Anne Marie (Co-Host/Interviewer)]

Does this mean workers are not asking for higher wages?

[Becky Frankowitz (Manpower Group Expert)]

Yeah, great, great question, Annmarie. What we're seeing now again during the heights of the pandemic, we saw huge bonuses for switching jobs. We're seeing that level has dropped below 7%. So the premium on switching a job in terms of your pay increase traditionally runs around 7%. We've seen that now drop to about six and three quarters. So we're not in sit people to move and we're seeing an increase in people who stay put. So I'm telling you, this whole idea of job hugging is real from the employee view. And this idea of lateral, not vertical, giving titles and a little bit of pay is real from an employee point of view. So they're coming together in a way that people aren't moving.

[Anne Marie (Co-Host/Interviewer)]

Workers that are able though to move structurally higher in an organization because they moved an organization. What sectors is that happening in?

[Becky Frankowitz (Manpower Group Expert)]

So, Emory, we're seeing only two sectors. We're seeing this increase in switching, if you will. That is construction and that is in the financial markets. And you've seen the headlines on the financial analysts that are switching all over New York City. So those, those two roles still have quite a bit of agency and we are seeing switching there. But for the others, we're really seeing people stay put.

[John (Host/Interviewer)]

So Becky, we've been in this low churn dynamic in the labor market for a while now. Economists have been talking about it on this program. You have to when things break one way or the other, we're always looking for that early indication. Now, correct me if I'm wrong, I think used to lead Quaker Foods when you saw that business, Becky, what kind of behavioral changes were you always looking out for, for a leading indicator of which way this economy was about to break?

[Becky Frankowitz (Manpower Group Expert)]

Yeah. So John, you're taking me in the wayback machine now. We would look at number of items in the basket and so how many goods are people buying, trips to store, average purchase price that you're actually putting in your basket. And I know now from the jobs market report what we see in terms of people actually hiring. Who's hiring today? It is the cost conscious consumer companies that are hiring. Domino's is hiring, Lowe's is hiring. So we're not seeing the high end retailers hiring, we're seeing the more accessible retailers hiring. Which tells me in terms of early indicator, people are still very cost conscious, uncertain about what's coming and, and holding on to their dollars like they're holding on to their jobs.

[John (Host/Interviewer)]

Becky, this was great. Let's do it again soon. It's good to see you. Who needs the jobs report when you've got Becky Frankowitz of Manpack Group.

[Indiana University Announcer]

Indiana University is shaping the future of health care. Advancing discoveries that become treatments for Alzheimer's, obesity, cancer and other rare and complex diseases. And training the next generation of providers, doctors and nurses trusted to address health challenges with skill, compassion and purpose. From the lab to the clinic, from research teams to patient care, IU talent is driving medical innovation, improving health outcomes and strengthening communities. See how IU solves. What's next? Iu Edu Impact Every business starts with an idea.

[Podcast/Radio Station Announcer]

How can you go from daydreamer to industry leader? Amazon Business accelerates your journey with smart business buying. Get everything you need to grow in one familiar place. From office supplies to IT essentials and maintenance tools. Amazon Business takes the buying experience you know and love from Amazon. Plus tools that help you save costs costs and make insights based decisions ready to bring your visions to life. Learn how at amazonbusiness. Com.