Bloomberg Talks: “ManpowerGroup Chief Strategy Officer Becky Frankiewicz Talks Labor Market”

Episode Date: October 3, 2025
Host: John (Bloomberg)
Guest: Becky Frankiewicz, Chief Strategy Officer, ManpowerGroup
Co-Host: Anne Marie

Overview

This episode dives deep into the current state and emerging trends of the U.S. labor market, leveraging real-time insights from ManpowerGroup’s data during a government shutdown that paused the official jobs report. Becky Frankiewicz shares expert analysis on labor mobility, the impact of AI on hiring, the entry-level job squeeze, supply-side questions, wage dynamics, and sector-specific trends.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Labor Market in Transition

• Real-Time Data vs. Missing Reports: Despite the government shutdown halting official payroll data, Frankiewicz emphasizes that ManpowerGroup’s own data shows a labor market in flux—not stagnating.
  • “It’s a strange no jobs report, jobs Friday... the labor market keeps moving and our data shows a market in transition.” (Becky, 00:47)
• Three Major Trends:
  • “Job Hugging” Replaces Job Switching:
    • Workers are holding onto current jobs more than ever; job switching has dropped 50% in two years.
    • “Job hugging is the new job switching... Switching is down 50% in the last two years. So workers are staying put.” (Becky, 00:52)
  • Lateral Moves Over Promotions:
    • Internal changes (“micro mobility”) are more common than external promotions. Lateral moves—changing titles within the same company—have increased as employers retain existing talent.
    • “Lateral is the new vertical... people change titles but not change companies.” (Becky, 01:04)
  • Growth Shifts—not Disappears:
    • Roles with immediate impact (like data scientists, tech, manufacturing) are growing, though this growth is less visible.
    • “Growth isn’t gone, it’s just moved... you just have to look harder to find it.” (Becky, 01:17)

2. Entry-Level Job Market Squeeze

• AI and Entry-Level Job Slowdown:
  • There’s reduced demand for graduates with little experience; employers want hires who contribute immediately.
    • “Employers are prioritizing people who have actual experience because again, they want immediate impact.” (Becky, 02:11)
  • Entry-level job postings are down 6%, to a four-year low (under 7 million jobs posted).
    • “Total jobs posted have dropped under 7 million... the lowest level in four years.” (Becky, 02:54)
  • The weak entry-level market is fueled by both economic caution and “wait and see” attitudes about AI.
    • “It’s a bit of wait and see [on AI], but it’s also a bit of economic uncertainty causing me to prioritize today versus tomorrow.” (Becky, 03:11)

3. Tech and AI's Labor Market Footprint

• Tech-Forward Hiring:
  • Despite softness in traditional software developer roles, positions like data scientist, data architect, and security specialist surge.
  • “Tech forward roles are surging again... Database scientists, data architects, anything on security is surging today.” (Becky, 03:55)
  • Software developer demand is down 50% year over year at entry level, but remains top three by volume.
    • “It’s still one of the top three entry level roles. It’s down almost 50% year over year, but it’s still in volume one of the top three.” (Becky, 04:09)

4. Labor Supply and Mobility

• Not a Supply-Side Issue, but a Mobility Stagnation:
  • Labor market softness is not from lack of workers, but from reduced movement (switching) between jobs.
  • “We're not seeing significant supply side issues... What I would say we're seeing is a bit of stagnation in terms of mobility.” (Becky, 05:06)
  • Mobility traditionally fuels growth; reduced switching (down 50%) hinders economic dynamism.
    • “When people stay put, it is harder to free up some of the supply to actually generate this transition that normally underpins our economy.” (Becky, 05:13)

5. Wage Premiums and Incentives

• Switching Bonuses Diminish:
  • The extra pay for switching jobs has dropped below historical averages (now ~6.75% rather than 7%+).
    • “The premium on switching a job... dropped to about six and three quarters. So we're not incenting people to move.” (Becky, 05:47)
  • Increased “job hugging” is aligned with less wage pressure and more incentives to stay put.

6. Sectoral Dynamics: Where Is Movement Still Happening?

• Switching is Alive in Few Sectors:
  • Only in construction and financial markets do employees have significant leverage to move (and benefit from higher wages or promotions).
    • “We're seeing only two sectors... construction and financial markets.” (Becky, 06:30)
  • Financial analysts in major metros like New York continue to switch employers.

7. Early Economic Indicators from Hiring Patterns

• Cost-Conscious Hiring:
  • Non-premium retailers and cost-focused companies are hiring, while high-end retail is not.
    • “Who’s hiring today? It is the cost conscious consumer companies... Domino’s is hiring, Lowe’s is hiring.” (Becky, 07:20)
  • Cautious consumer behavior—fewer trips, less in basket—mirrors cautious labor moves.
    • “People are still very cost conscious, uncertain about what's coming, and holding on to their dollars like they're holding on to their jobs.” (Becky, 07:43)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On labor market stalling (mobility):
  • “Job hugging is the new job switching.” (Becky, 00:52)
• On AI and hiring:
  • “Employers are not hiring to develop people. They're hiring to actually get benefit from their hires today.” (Becky, 02:11)
• On job-switch bonuses:
  • “We’re not incenting people to move and we're seeing an increase in people who stay put.” (Becky, 05:52)
• On sectoral differences:
  • “Construction and... financial markets. Those two roles still have quite a bit of agency and we are seeing switching there.” (Becky, 06:32)
• On cost-conscious hiring as an early signal:
  • “Domino's is hiring, Lowe's is hiring... We're not seeing the high end retailers hiring, we're seeing the more accessible retailers hiring.” (Becky, 07:20)

Timestamps of Key Segments

• 00:47 – 01:40: Becky lays out the three current labor market trends
• 02:05 – 03:11: AI’s impact and the drop in entry-level demand explained
• 03:49 – 04:32: Tech-forward hiring, AI, and employer attitudes
• 05:06 – 05:25: Mobility stagnation and supply-side discussion
• 05:43 – 05:52: Wages, job-switch bonuses, and “job hugging”
• 06:30 – 06:42: Sectors with active job switching
• 07:15 – 07:43: Early consumer and hiring trends as economic indicators

Conclusion

This episode offers a rich, real-time snapshot of a changing U.S. labor market. The headline: Job movement and entry-level opportunities are slowing, not from lack of jobs, but from a confluence of economic anxiety, the onset of AI, and cautious corporate and worker behaviors. At the same time, cost-conscious sectors and tech-driven roles show signs of selective resilience, and only a few industries see the “old rules” of job-switching bonuses and vertical mobility still apply.

For anyone navigating the job market, the message is clear: Stability and experience are valued, lateral moves are up, and the future remains uncertain as both businesses and workers pause to assess what's next.