Middle East Geoeconomics Lead for Bloomberg Economics, Dina Esfandiary, Talks US Military, Middle East Tensions

Summary

---

Podcast Summary:

Bloomberg Talks
Episode: Middle East Geoeconomics Lead for Bloomberg Economics, Dina Esfandiary, Talks US Military, Middle East Tensions
Air Date: February 20, 2026
Participants: Tom Keene (Host), Paul Sweeney (Host), Alexis Christophorus (Host), Dina Esfandiary (Guest, Bloomberg Economics Middle East Geoeconomics Lead)

---

Overview

This episode centers on the escalating military tensions between the United States and Iran, featuring Dina Esfandiary, a leading geoeconomics analyst specializing in the Middle East. The discussion explores the current US military buildup, strategic ambiguity in Washington’s Iran policy, the influence of regional players like Israel and Gulf states, and the potential consequences if open conflict erupts. The conversation is laced with historical analogies and a clear-eyed assessment of what escalation would mean for the region and global markets.

---

Key Discussion Points & Insights

Dina’s Perspective on Iran and US Unity

• Unusual Political Consensus: Dina highlights that Iran, unlike most US foreign policy matters, has historically unified American political elites. However, recent hawkish moves under the Trump administration are beginning to erode even that unity.

  • “Iran tends to unify them. Although I think Trump’s desire or at least build up and steps towards war is beginning to kind of chip away at that unified elite.” — Dina Esfandiary [02:09]

• Consequential US Military Buildup: The current American deployment in the Gulf is unprecedented in scale, raising questions about its true purpose—deterrence or preparation for war.

  • “The US military buildup in the region is really consequential. It’s really significant. It’s unlike anything that we’ve seen in the past before. Is it really intended to go to war, or is it intended to scare the Iranians to the negotiating table?” — Dina Esfandiary [02:09]

---

US Strategic Ambiguity

• Unclear Objectives in Washington: Dina says it’s “the million dollar question” as to what the US actually wants from its posture toward Iran. She describes shifting priorities—nuclear containment, regime change, and back again—reflecting confusion even within the administration.

  • “It started out, as, you know, we had to find a way to contain or roll back Iran’s nuclear program. Then for some people... it became about regime change. Then it returned back to the nuclear program. It’s really, really unclear.” — Dina Esfandiary [03:30]

• Elements of Opportunism: The current situation is partly fueled by seizing opportunities rather than following a coherent long-term plan.

  • “I think there’s an element of opportunism right now.” — Dina Esfandiary [03:30]

---

Decision-Making & Military Considerations

• Role of US Military Leadership: Dina emphasizes that, despite perceptions, military leadership does brief and influence the President. She recounts how Trump was dissuaded from direct action against Iran in early 2025 due to sobering military briefings.
  • “It’s impossible to go to war without at least having a conversation with the generals. ...part of that briefing... is actually why Trump didn’t go to war with Iran ...because I think the briefing from the generals really frightened him and pushed him to build his capabilities up first.” — Dina Esfandiary [04:26]

---

Regional Dynamics—Israel, Gulf States, and Allies

• Israel: Pushes for a hard line and tries to sway the US toward either direct conflict or maximalist positions in nuclear negotiations.

  • “Israel is playing a huge role in trying to sway Trump, in trying to really convince him either to go to war or to have a very maximalist position in the nuclear negotiations.” — Dina Esfandiary [05:31]

• Gulf States (UAE, Saudi Arabia): Surprisingly, these traditional US allies are now acting as voices of caution, urging restraint to avoid unpredictable regional fallout.

  • “It’s the US’s Gulf Arab partners that are actually urging restraint, that are saying, we don’t want war because we don’t know what will happen once the fighting starts.” — Dina Esfandiary [05:31]

---

Historical Contexts & War Analogies

• Skirmish or Prolonged War?: Host Tom Keene draws parallels to the First Battle of Bull Run and Iraq/Afghanistan—asking if any US-Iran conflict could be quick or inevitably protracted.

  • “America after Iraq, America after Afghanistan is jaded about short little skirmishes. Do you assume if something happens... that this is some form of short little skirmish, or do we end up with a bull run like the American Civil War for five, six years?” — Tom Keene [06:07]

• Iran’s Likely Reaction: Dina warns that Iran now sees the stakes as “existential,” which means any conflict could avoid the typical de-escalatory calculus and instead spiral rapidly.

  • “I think today the issue is really existential for Iran. So they have no incentive to not escalate. Their incentive is the opposite. Escalate. Throw everything we have at the problem... potentially closing the Straits of Hormuz. And once that happens, it’s absolutely impossible to keep this short.” — Dina Esfandiary [06:47]

---

Prospects for Regime Change & Military Intervention

• Boots on the Ground? Dina is skeptical that regime change is practically or politically feasible, especially with only air power:
  • “It’s going to be virtually impossible to change the system from overhead. You’re going to have to put boots on the ground. And I don’t think any American president wants to put boots on the ground in Iran.” — Dina Esfandiary [07:42]

---

What Comes Next?

• Tipping Point: All sides may have now “cornered themselves” into conflict, with the first incident—such as an airstrike—likely bringing swift and uncontrollable escalation.
  • “I think sadly, everybody has cornered themselves into that first airstrike happening and then we’ll be looking at how does Iran escalate? ...I think my sense is that it will be a pretty rapid escalation and then it becomes really difficult to say what will happen next.” — Dina Esfandiary [08:05]

---

Memorable Quotes

• “Iran tends to unify [US political elites]...although Trump’s desire or at least build up and steps towards war is beginning to kind of chip away at that unified elite.” — Dina Esfandiary [02:09]
• “It’s really, really unclear. And the reason for that is I think the administration itself is unclear on what its objectives are.” — Dina Esfandiary [03:30]
• “I think the briefing from the generals really frightened him and pushed him to build his capabilities up first.” — Dina Esfandiary [04:26]
• “Today the issue is really existential for Iran. So they have no incentive to not escalate. Their incentive is the opposite.” — Dina Esfandiary [06:47]
• “It’s going to be virtually impossible to change the system from overhead. You’re going to have to put boots on the ground. And I don’t think any American president wants to put boots on the ground in Iran.” — Dina Esfandiary [07:42]

---

Notable Timestamps

• [02:09] – Dina explains rare US unity on Iran and the impact of Trump’s policy.
• [03:30] – Discussion of shifting, unclear US objectives toward Iran.
• [04:26] – Insights into military briefings shaping US policy decision.
• [05:31] – Israel’s influence and Gulf states’ call for restraint.
• [06:47] – Iranian escalation likely if war begins; existential stakes.
• [07:42] – Skepticism over regime change via air power alone.
• [08:05] – Dina predicts a rapid and hard-to-contain conflict escalation.

---

Tone & Takeaways

The dialogue is candid, analytical, and steeped in both historical perspective and current geopolitical realities. Dina Esfandiary’s expertise shines as she deftly unpacks both overt strategy and hidden anxieties on all sides. Listeners are left with a sobering assessment: any spark in the Gulf today could swiftly set off events that no party—especially Washington or Tehran—can confidently control.

Transcript

[David Gura]

The news doesn't stop on the weekends.

[Lisa Mateo]

Context changes constantly and now Bloomberg is the place to stay on top of it all.

[David Gura]

Hi, I'm David Gura. Join us every Saturday and Sunday for the new Bloomberg this Weekend.

[Christina Raffini]

I'm Christina Raffini. We'll bring you the latest headlines in depth analysis and big interviews, all the stories that hit home on your days off.

[Lisa Mateo]

And I'm Lisa Mateo. Watch and listen to Bloomberg this weekend for thoughtful, enlightening conversations about business, lifestyle, people and culture.

[David Gura]

On Saturday mornings, we put the past week's events into context, examining what happened in the markets and the world.

[Christina Raffini]

Then on Sundays, we speak with journalists, columnists and key political figures to prepare you for the week ahead.

[Lisa Mateo]

Join us as soon as you wake up and bring us with you wherever your weekend plans take you.

[David Gura]

Watch us on Bloomberg Television, listen on Bloomberg Radio, stream the show live on the Bloomberg Business app, or listen to

[Christina Raffini]

the podcast that's Bloomberg this Weekend. Saturdays and Sundays starting at 7am Eastern on February 28th.

[Lisa Mateo]

Make us part of your weekend routine on Bloomberg Television, Radio and wherever you get your podcasts.

[Christina Raffini]

Bloomberg Audio Studios Podcasts, Radio News.

[Tom Keene]

Joining us now, Dina is Fandier who is with Bloomberg and G on economics and she is had the privilege of studying with Lawrence Friedman. What was that like, Dina? You wander in the door at King's College and it's literally like you're talking to the Adam Smith or war studies

[Dina Esfandieri]

first. Thanks for having me. You know, you don't know better than to just be excited and, and appreciate that you are studying with some pretty great people and then really appreciate the mentorship that they give you. Which is, which is what I got.

[Tom Keene]

This war that we're in, it's on the COVID of the New York Times. There's maps that you look at and all that. Dina, have you ever seen, I mean, this is not like Kuwait. It's not like Iraq. There's something different about this Iran affair of the president. Discuss

[Dina Esfandieri]

so much to say, so little time. I mean, you know, I think the, I think the Iran issue has historically been a real unifying issue in the United States, which is odd given that the US Political elites are pretty much split on absolutely everything. Iran tends to unify them. Although I think Trump' desire or at least build up and steps towards war is beginning to kind of chip away at that unified elite. So I think there's that element of it and then I think there's the element of the buildup. Right? The buildup is the military buildup, the US Military buildup in the region is really consequential. It's really significant. It's unlike anything that we've seen in the past before. Is it really intended to go to war, or is it intended to scare the Iranians to the negotiating table? I think there's an element. But the risk, of course, is that the buildup is so significant that unless Trump gets everything he wants out of an agreement with the Iranians, he's going to have to use it to justify that buildup.

[Paul Sweeney]

Dina, I think, as you mentioned, the buildup of military capabilities in that part of the world's substantial. Do we know what the US Strategy is? What does the US Want here from Iran? That's seems to be unclear for a lot of folks.

[Dina Esfandieri]

I mean, that is the million dollar question. What are the objectives of what the United States is doing right now? It started out, as, you know, we had to find a way to contain or roll back Iran's nuclear program. Then for some people in the United States, it became about regime change. Then it returned back to the nuclear program. It's really, really unclear. And the reason for that is I think the administration itself is unclear on what its objectives are. I think there's an element of opportunism right now. Okay, but there's an opportunity.

[Tom Keene]

Dina, how are the generals and the admirals, like, the pros at this, like you? Do they feel left from where you sit? Is this being run off the desk of the president in the Oval Office, or is there actually a discussion of normal planning of a conflict or a war in the process of war studies?

[Dina Esfandieri]

I mean, I think it's impossible to go to war without at least having a conversation with the generals. And in fact, it's been reported that President Trump has been briefed on the military options when it comes to Iran. And part of that briefing and conversation is actually why Trump didn't go to war with Iran in January when the protests were happening and when he promised to send help. Because I think the briefing from the generals really frightened him and pushed him to build his capabilities up first.

[Tom Keene]

That's the smartest thing I've heard, Paul. I mean, I'm sorry, but, you know, forget about all of our parents were riveted and molded by Pearl Harbor, November of 1979. There was a problem. Yeah, the Exocet missile in the Falklands, there was a problem. Where's the problem here, given what we see in those maps?

[Paul Sweeney]

I don't know. So what is the role that Israel is playing in this situation? Other allies, perhaps other players in the Middle East. Is it just the US and Iran with this stare off here? What are the others doing?

[Dina Esfandieri]

I mean, I think the main players are definitely the US and Iran, and the main decision maker on this front right now really is President Trump. But I think Israel is playing a huge role in trying to sway Trump, in trying to really convince him either to go to war or to have a very maximalist position in the nuclear negotiations. Negotiations. And bizarrely, compared to a few years ago when the first nuclear deal was being negotiated, it's the US's Gulf Arab partners that are actually urging restraint, that are saying, we don't want war because we don't know what will happen once the fighting starts.

[Tom Keene]

Oh, Dina, that's right where we wanted to go. I mean, you know, did you study the American Civil War, Dana, at King's College? Or is it just very little? Very little. Okay. July 1861. First Battle of Bull run. The socialites of Washington went out to watch the battle because it was going to be a short little skirmish. America after Iraq, America after Afghanistan is jaded about short little skirmishes. Do you assume if something happens this weekend, whatever the President decides, that this is some form of short little skirmish, or do we end up with a bull run like the American Civil War for five, six years?

[Dina Esfandieri]

I think if you had asked me this question six months ago, seven months ago, I would have said, I think there's a chance we can keep it short because the Iranians don't want to escalate further. They don't want to fight a war they know they're going to lose. I think today the issue is really existential for Iran. So they have no incentive to not escalate. Their incentive is the opposite. Escalate. Throw everything we have at the problem and see what we can do. How to get the US back bogged down further in the region. Impact oil markets by shooting at oil and energy infrastructure in the region, potentially closing the Straits of Hormuz. And once that happens, it's absolutely impossible to keep this short.

[Paul Sweeney]

So, Dina, I guess if we step back and say perhaps a strategy for the US would be regime change, because anything short of that seems inconsequential relative to the assets that are being deployed.

[Alexis Christophorus]

There's.

[Dina Esfandieri]

Well, for sure that could be an option. But then the problem is the assets that are deployed there are not enough. It's going to be virtually impossible to change the system from overhead. You're going to have to put boots on the ground. And I don't think any American president wants to put boots on the ground in Iran.

[Paul Sweeney]

Yeah, absolutely. So I mean, again, what's the next step you're looking for, Dina?

[Dina Esfandieri]

I'm looking for the beginning of that conflict. I think sadly, everybody has cornered themselves into that first airstrike happening and then we'll be looking at how does Iran escalate? Does it go all out immediately or does it do it step by step? I think my sense is that it will be a pretty rapid escalation and then it becomes really difficult to say what will happen next.

[Tom Keene]

Dana, thank you so much for your work. Really, really appreciate it this morning. We will be in touch with this all week. And Joe Matthew and Katie Leinz leading our coverage. Look for that at 12 noon. Dina Esfandieri, middle East German economics lead for Bloomberg Economics.

[Alexis Christophorus]

You can get the news whenever you want it with Bloomberg News now. I'm Amy Morris.

[Karen Moscow]

And I'm Karen Moscow, here to tell you about our new on Demand news report delivered right to your podcast feed. Bloomberg News now is a short 5 minute audio report on the day's top stories. Episodes are published throughout the day with the latest information and data to keep you informed.

[Alexis Christophorus]

Yes, there are other products like this from a variety of news organizations, but they usually rerun their radio newscasts throughout the day. That's not what we do. We create customized episodes that can only be heard on Bloomberg News now and

[Karen Moscow]

we don't wait an hour to publish breaking news. When news breaks. We'll have an episode up in your podcast feed within minutes. So you're always getting the latest stories and developments.

[Alexis Christophorus]

Get the reporting and the context from Bloomberg's 3,000 journalists and analysts were all over the world. Listen to the latest from Bloomberg News now on Apple, Spotify or anywhere you listen.

[Tom Keene]

This is Tom Keene inviting you to join us for the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. It's about making you smarter every business day.

[Paul Sweeney]

I'm Paul Sweeney. We bring you complete coverage of the US Market open. We cover stocks, bonds, commodities, even crypto. All the information you need to excel.

[Alexis Christophorus]

And I'm Alexis Christophorus. Bloomberg Surveillance also brings you the analysis behind the headlines. We do that through conversations with the smartest names in economics, finance, investment and international relations.

[Tom Keene]

We do all this live each and every weekday, then bring you the best analysis in our daily podcast search for Bloomberg Surveillance on Apple, Spotify, YouTube or anywhere else you listen on the east

[Paul Sweeney]

coast, listen at lunch and on the west coast, listen as soon as you wake up.

[Alexis Christophorus]

That's the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast with Tom Keene, Paul Sweeney and me, Alexis Christophorus. Subscribe today wherever you get your podcasts.

[Tom Keene]

Bloomberg Surveillance Essential listening each and every business day.