Bloomberg Talks

Episode: Nouriel Roubini Talks Tech Led Boom, Geopolitics

Date: January 13, 2026
Guest: Nouriel Roubini, Chairman of Roubini Macro Associates
Host/Interviewer: Bloomberg

Episode Overview

In this episode, Nouriel Roubini—often dubbed "Dr. Doom" for his usually cautious economic outlook—shares a surprisingly bullish view on the US and global economy through 2030, largely driven by a technology-led productivity boom. The conversation explores the transformative effects of advanced technologies, persistent geopolitical risks, the relationship between productivity and jobs, and the overarching power of tech to drive growth and investment, even amid global uncertainty.

Key Discussion Points

1. The Technology-Driven Growth Outlook (00:38 – 02:18)

• Broad View on Tech-Led Economic Expansion

  • Roubini highlights a basket of fifteen foundational technologies—not just AI, but semiconductors, biotech, quantum, defense tech, fintech, and materials science—that are accelerating productivity and growth.
  • US is positioned at the center of a tech-driven positive supply shock, raising potential GDP growth and helping to counter inflation.

• Potential for Higher US Growth

  • Quote:
    “The US potential growth is estimated today to be only 1.8%. [It] could be as high as 4% by the end of the decade.”
    — Nouriel Roubini (01:17)
  • Productivity post-global financial crisis (GFC) was sluggish (1% per year 2009-2019), but surged to nearly 2% since 2019 and Q3 2024 data suggest even 5% productivity growth.
  • Roubini credits this to a productivity revolution already observable in both micro (corporate) and macro data.

2. Jobs and the New Productivity Revolution (02:18 – 03:20)

• Jobless Growth?

  • Roubini considers three explanations for the apparent disconnect between GDP and jobs:
    1. GDP numbers are wrong and might be revised down.
    2. Labor data might be revised up.
    3. The most plausible: Genuine “productivity revolution” allowing for strong GDP with stagnant/weak labor growth.
  • S&P 500 real revenue per worker is up 15% since ChatGPT’s launch, with certain sectors (tech, communications) showing >20% gains.

• Quote:
  "We are seeing a productivity revolution already in the numbers."
  — Nouriel Roubini (03:16)

3. Geopolitical Risks vs. Economic Outlook (03:20 – 04:52)

• Risks Acknowledged, but Limited Market Impact

  • Roubini recognizes real geopolitical tensions (Israel-Iran, Russia-Ukraine, US-China) but highlights their “second order” effect on markets compared to the positive impact of technology.
  • Recent conflicts (e.g., Israel-Iran) resulted in brief oil price blips and mild market volatility but did not disrupt the global economy or markets meaningfully.

• Quote:
  “Every time there is a geopolitical risk, people say stuff could happen. But so far those that we have seen ... have [had] another market effect."
  — Nouriel Roubini (04:46)

4. US as an Investment Haven & Tech's Overriding Influence (04:52 – 05:44)

• Tech Trumps Tariffs and Bad Policy

  • Even when considering policy headwinds (tariffs, deficits, regulatory risk), the upside from tech is dominant.
  • Roubini’s formula:
    • Tech potential +2% to growth
    • Policy/geopolitical negatives: –0.5%
    • Net: Tech outweighs negatives by a factor of 4

• Quote:
  “Tech trumps tariffs ... These technologies [are] first order, everything else, including geopolitics, is second order.”
  — Nouriel Roubini (05:12)

5. Markets, AI Race, & Winners/Losers (05:44 – 07:27)

• Market Froth & The AGI Race

  • Some “frothiness” in current valuations, but the prospect of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) justifies the excitement—firms achieving AGI could be worth 5x today's value.

  • Even with potential corrections, structural growth from tech means long-term market appreciation continues.

  • Quote:
    “With higher growth, you got to have higher returns. ... Most of those productivity gains are gotten by the firms. Real wages are growing less than productivity. ... From a profitability point of view, the corporate sector is doing great.”
    — Nouriel Roubini (06:51)

  • Higher returns are accruing more to corporations than to workers, explaining both Wall Street’s optimism and continuing worker malaise around affordability.

Notable Quotes and Memorable Moments

• On US and China:
  • “I don't think it's a zero sum game. US is going to do well, China is going to do well.” (01:14)
• On AI and productivity:
  • “If you're looking ... at S&P 500 firms since the launch of ChatGPT ... the average [real revenue per worker] has increased ... by 15% in the last three years.” (02:54)
• On geopolitics and markets:
  • “Venezuela ... the macro and market implications are close to zero. ... Russia, Ukraine is a mess but ... not going to have an impact on [the] global market economy the way it did in 2022.” (04:02)
• On the medium-term economic horizon:
  • “With higher growth, you got to have higher returns.” (06:51)
  • “American exceptionalism has to become even stronger.” (06:24)

Important Timestamps

• 00:38 – Start of main interview segment, Roubini gives bullish multi-year outlook.
• 01:06 – Explains the range of future technologies powering growth.
• 02:18 – Discussion of productivity's impact on jobs (“jobless growth”).
• 03:20 – Host asks about reconciling optimism with global risks.
• 03:47 – Roubini details why market impacts from recent conflicts have been minor.
• 05:06 – Roubini expounds his “tech trumps tariffs” thesis.
• 05:52 – Perspective on market “froth,” AGI, and future corporate winners.
• 06:51 – Assessment of who benefits from the productivity surge—companies vs. workers.

Summary Takeaway

Nouriel Roubini articulates a robustly optimistic vision for the US and global economy over the next decade, powered by a suite of emerging technologies. While acknowledging ongoing geopolitical threats, he emphasizes that technological progress is now the “first-order” driver of growth, investment, and productivity—vastly outweighing policy and geopolitical risks. Roubini predicts not only higher GDP but also increasingly lucrative corporate returns, even as the gains may remain unevenly distributed. For investors and policymakers, the episode offers a clear-eyed rationale for why technology—and not tariffs, politics, or even war—will define the prosperity of the late 2020s.