Bloomberg Talks: Oliver Chen, Senior Equity Research Analyst at TD Cowen, on Retail Outlook

Date: November 28, 2025
Host: Tom (Bloomberg)
Guest: Oliver Chen (TD Cowen)
Guest Appearance: Lisa Mateo (Fashion Correspondent)

Episode Overview

This episode features senior equity research analyst Oliver Chen discussing the state of the retail market in 2025, consumer trends during the holiday shopping season, the evolving landscape of luxury retail, and investment insights. Expect analyses on brands like Levi’s, Walmart, Cartier, and insights into payment innovations, M&A trends, and the changing face of luxury.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

Levi’s and the Value of Iconic Brands

[00:24-01:30]

• Levi’s Strategic Focus: The brand is doubling down on its direct-to-consumer (DTC) approach, aiming to open more proprietary stores globally.
  Oliver Chen: “Levi’s is an iconic brand with dominant market share at (the) premium end... What Levi’s is doing specifically is more direct to consumer, basically opening their own stores globally and consumers are looking for value. It plays quite nicely with quality.” (00:56)
• Consumer Preferences: Consumers prioritize classics with value—think quality denim that lasts for years.

Holiday Spending Outlook & Consumer Sentiment

[01:30-02:33]

• Spending Trends: Holiday spending is expected to rise by 2-3% but is essentially flat in volume due to inflation.
  Oliver Chen: “The consumer still has money, wants joy. We’re forecasting up 2 to 3%. Keep in mind inflation and pricing will be about 2 to 3%. So your units are flat and there’s a bit of a struggle.” (01:56)
• Consumer Psychology: Shoppers are experiencing “plenty of anxiety,” leading them to seek out great deals, but they remain resilient.

Payments and Shopping Behavior Evolution

[02:33-03:19]

• Payment Methods: Consumers are using a mix of traditional charge cards and fintech options like “buy now, pay later.”
  Oliver Chen: “Mobile is in the new mall... increased rates of mobile use... from buy online pickup in store to curbside pickup to delivery is being used so much.” (02:49)
• Shopping Experience: Emphasis on omnichannel retail—mobile, in-store, curbside, and delivery—especially among younger shoppers.

The Shifting World of Luxury Fashion

[03:19-04:21]

• Creative Leadership: The identity and direction of creative heads at luxury brands (e.g., Bottega Veneta with Louise Trotter, Gucci) remain crucial.
  Oliver Chen: “The creative matters... I’m really creating desire, having new, new design... themes for luxury continue to be quiet luxury... with less focus on logos and a real emphasis on quality and materials.” (03:46)
• Trends: There’s a pronounced shift towards “quiet luxury”—subtlety over logos, focus on craftsmanship and high-quality materials.

Jewelry’s Outperformance in Luxury

[04:21-05:22]

• Sector Dynamics: Jewelry is outpacing other luxury goods, with high performing names like Cartier (Richemont Group) and Van Cleef.
  Oliver Chen: “There’s definitely a barbell... more pressure at the low and middle and then some real strength at the high end. Cartier Richemont Group is outperforming... customers are gravitating towards gold jewelry, real stores of value.” (04:40)
• Handbags vs. Jewelry: Handbag growth is lagging due to price increases; jewelry’s perceived enduring value is winning more affluent consumers.

Mergers & Acquisitions Outlook

[05:22-06:11]

• Selective Activity: Chen foresees selective M&A, particularly in beauty (skin care, fragrances).
  Oliver Chen: “M and A is totally possible. And we’re watching the IPO market.” (05:41)
• Market Stability: Improving consumer conditions could spur more deals.

Top Investment Pick: Walmart

[06:11-07:23]

• Why Walmart?
  • Growth in digital advertising (“in the $5 billion range” vs. peers at “50 plus”).
  • AI implementation, strong defense via leading grocery segment, and focus on delivery and micro-fulfillment.
  • Appeal to higher and lower income demographics. Oliver Chen: “We like Walmart. We like the AI story, we like the value story. We like delivery, curbside pickup, marketplace model digital advertising that remains a favorite for us.” (06:15)
• Valuation Concerns: Tom notes a high P/E ratio, but Chen remains bullish due to Walmart’s expansion into high-margin services, profitability in digital spaces, and robust brand loyalty.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Consumer Resilience:
  “Don’t bet against the US Consumer. It’s been solid worldwide.” — Oliver Chen (01:56)

• On Payment Evolution:
  “Mobile is in the new mall... these new ways of payment... is very different for younger customers.” — Oliver Chen (02:49)

• On Luxury’s Direction:
  “The creative matters... we’re seeing a lot of newness at Gucci and others... quiet luxury in terms of what’s happening with less focus on logos and a real emphasis on quality.” — Oliver Chen (03:46)

• On Jewelry as a Store of Value:
  “Customers are gravitating towards gold jewelry, real stores of value. And the prices here are compelling because handbag prices have gotten and extreme.” — Oliver Chen (04:40)

• On Walmart’s Strengths:
  “Digital advertising for Walmart is in the $5 billion range... themes about the big getting bigger and reaching more and more profitability online in part because of digital advertising as well as the marketplace.” — Oliver Chen (06:32)

Timestamps for Key Segments

• 00:24 — Opening and Question on Levi’s Strategy
• 00:56 — Oliver Chen on Levi’s Brand Position and Strategy
• 01:40 — Lisa Mateo asks about Holiday Spending Outlook
• 01:56 — Oliver Chen on Consumer Spending and Sentiment
• 02:33 — Tom pivots to Payment Methods and Shopping Channels
• 02:49 — Oliver Chen on Payment Trends and Retail Experience
• 03:19 — Tom & Kevin Gordon on Creative Directors in Luxury
• 03:46 — Oliver Chen on Luxury Fashion Trends
• 04:30 — Lisa Mateo on Jewelry’s Performance in Luxury
• 04:40 — Oliver Chen on Jewelry and Consumer Trends in Luxury
• 05:22 — M&A Activity Discussion
• 06:11 — Top Retail Investment Pick
• 06:32 — Deep Dive on Walmart’s Competitive Advantages

Tone and Style

The episode maintains an optimistic and analytical tone, blending market insight with light banter (e.g., Levi’s laundry advice, holiday shopping anecdotes). Chen is informative, accessible, and clear, making complex trends relatable to mainstream listeners.