Bloomberg Talks: PIMCO Global Economic Advisor Richard Clarida Talks US Inflation, Economy
Date: January 23, 2026
Host: Scarlett, Bloomberg
Guest: Richard Clarida, PIMCO Global Economic Advisor and former Federal Reserve Vice Chairman
Episode Overview
In this episode, Scarlett interviews Richard Clarida to get his expert take on the US economy’s current state, the outlook for inflation, and the Federal Reserve's evolving leadership during a pivotal political moment. Clarida provides a nuanced overview of economic resilience, addresses concerns about consumer confidence, and offers an insider assessment of the Fed’s future direction amidst political scrutiny and legal battles.
Key Discussion Points
1. The State of the US Economy
[00:36 – 01:50]
- Scarlett opens by highlighting that headline indicators show the US economy in strong shape, with solid growth and a resilient labor market amid easing inflation.
- Richard Clarida affirms the positive assessment:
- Growth in 2025 is expected to exceed 2%, with a strong finish to the year.
- Inflation has remained flat, unaffected by tariffs.
- "We've had strong capital spending in the tech sector." (Clarida, 01:17)
- Fiscal stimulus ("the big beautiful bill") and international investments are providing additional boosts for 2026.
- The US economy is "in a pretty good place," but aggregates may mask underlying disparities.
2. Diverging Economic Narratives: Resilience vs. Caution
[01:50 – 02:52]
- Scarlett points to downbeat corporate commentary on consumer confidence and uncertainty.
- Clarida explains the coexistence of positive macro data and corporate caution:
- Tech and asset-owning households are benefiting from wealth effects.
- Outside these segments, economic performance is more uneven; uncertainty is higher.
- "This may well be a year when the aggregates and averages are hiding a lot of interesting differences in the economy." (Clarida, 02:32)
3. The Next Federal Reserve Chair: Candidates and Implications
[02:52 – 05:42]
- Scarlett discusses President Trump’s selection process for the next Fed chair and references commentary on differing leadership styles.
- Clarida assesses the leading candidates:
- Kevin Hassett (likely staying at NEC), Chris Waller, Kevin Warsh, Rick Reeder.
- Chris Waller: "A world class macro economist... a good forecaster and good communicator." (Clarida, 04:07)
- Kevin Warsh: "Had very thoughtful things to say about changing the Fed as an institution."
- Rick Reeder: "A very respected legendary investor... would bring a lot of connectivity to the bond market."
- "All three bring something a lot to the table. It's really going to be the call of President Trump..." (Clarida, 04:47)
- Kevin Hassett (likely staying at NEC), Chris Waller, Kevin Warsh, Rick Reeder.
- Unlikely surprises: Only if Kevin Hassett or Scott Besant are chosen, contrary to current signals.
- "Among the other three, probably right now the odds of Waller are a bit lower simply because he doesn't seem to have that connectivity..." (Clarida, 05:26)
4. The Lisa Cook Supreme Court Hearing & Fed Board Stability
[05:42 – 07:13]
- Scarlett: Asks about the legal case regarding the removal of Fed Governor Lisa Cook.
- Clarida’s view:
- Notes Supreme Court skepticism toward the White House's justification for removal.
- Expects Lisa Cook to remain in her role throughout much, if not all, of the year.
- "Legal scholars seem to think that one likely scenario is that the Supreme Court merely rules narrowly that she cannot be removed..." (Clarida, 06:38)
5. Confidence in Fed Independence
[07:13 – 07:57]
- Scarlett: Inquires if recent events have changed Clarida's confidence in Fed independence.
- Clarida: Expresses strong confidence, citing Congressional intent and market forces.
- "An important factor that supports Fed independence is the financial markets and the bond market." (Clarida, 07:32)
- Politicians seeking low rates wouldn't get them if the market doubted the Fed's commitment to fighting inflation.
6. DOJ Investigation: How Should the Fed Chair Respond?
[07:57 – 08:42]
- Scarlett: Considers the DOJ's investigation into Jay Powell’s remarks.
- Clarida: Expects a brief, careful response from Powell, sticking closely to pre-prepared statements, then moving the press conference along.
- "I think he'll have a crisp answer and he'll try to move on would be my guess." (Clarida, 08:34)
Notable Quotes
-
On Economic Strength:
"Growth for 2025 will probably come in north of 2%, finishing strong. Inflation's been basically flat. It did not really move up as a result of the tariffs."
— Richard Clarida ([01:10]) -
On Divergence Beneath the Surface:
"This may well be a year when the aggregates and averages are hiding a lot of interesting differences in the economy."
— Richard Clarida ([02:32]) -
On Fed Chair Candidates:
"All three bring something a lot to the table. It's really going to be the call of President Trump..."
— Richard Clarida ([04:47]) -
On Lisa Cook’s Job Security:
"I think there's a very high likelihood that Lisa Cook will continue in this role, you know, throughout certainly much if not all of this year."
— Richard Clarida ([06:22]) -
On Fed Independence:
"I'm confident in Federal Reserve independence. That's clearly what Congress intended in terms of the way the Fed is set up... an important factor that supports Fed independence is the financial markets..."
— Richard Clarida ([07:20], [07:32])
Timestamps for Major Segments
- US Economy Outlook & Resilience: 00:36 – 01:50
- Corporate Caution & Economic Disparity: 01:50 – 02:52
- Fed Chair Candidates & Political Dynamics: 02:52 – 05:42
- Lisa Cook Supreme Court Case: 05:42 – 07:13
- Fed Independence: 07:13 – 07:57
- Fed Chair & DOJ Investigation: 07:57 – 08:42
Memorable Moments
- Clarida’s “K-shape economy” observation: The ongoing divergence between beneficiaries of tech/asset booms and those left uncertain.
- Insider view on the strengths of Fed chair front-runners.
- Legal and political commentary delivered with cool confidence and respect for both economic and judicial processes.
- Clarida’s steady assurance on the resilience—and independence—of the Federal Reserve.