President of Near East Policy Research & Member Ali Safavi Talks Iran, Power Transition

Summary

Bloomberg Talks: President of Near East Policy Research & Member Ali Safavi Talks Iran, Power Transition
Episode Date: March 3, 2026

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Episode Overview

This episode of Bloomberg Talks features a deep-dive interview with Ali Safavi, President of Near East Policy Research and a member of Iran's parliament in exile (National Council of Resistance of Iran). Safavi analyzes the likelihood of regime change in Iran amidst ongoing conflict following the assassination of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei. The discussion dissects the structure and resolve of the Iranian opposition, the prospects for democratic transition, and the broader implications for Iran’s political future.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Feasibility of Regime Change in Iran

[00:37–02:52]

• Historical Suppression: Safavi highlights that "a nation that has been suppressed for 47 years" is ripe for change, noting over 100,000 executed dissidents from the main opposition, Mujaheddin.
• Cycles of Protest: He references recurrent violent crackdowns in recent years (2022, 2019, 2017, and most recently January) as evidence of widespread unrest and determination.
• Organic Change Required:

  “Change must come from within Iran, underground, indigenous, organic by the Iranian people, and by a very potent and structured resistance within Iran itself.” — Ali Safavi [01:45]

• Signs of Regime Weakness: Points to economic collapse, currency devaluation, high unemployment, systemic corruption, and failed regional policies.

2. Will the Iranian People Rise Amidst War?

[02:52–04:36]

• Resilience & Independence:

  “Iranian people are very independent minded people...they’re not going to rise up or sit down on a call of anybody from the outside.” — Ali Safavi [03:07]

• Impact of Ongoing War: The populace is cautious, prioritizing safety while bombs drop, but stands methodical and organized.
• Call for Restraint: Cites Mrs. Rajavi’s call to protect civilians and infrastructure, emphasizing organized—not spontaneous—uprising once conditions stabilize.
• Leadership Loss Effect: The death of Khamenei is seen as the "end of the religious tyranny in Iran," a pivotal turning point.

3. Internal Dynamics and a Path to Democratic Transition

[04:36–07:32]

• Societal Mobilization:

  “Previously, there were protests by...some sectors...But what happened in January, you had all walks of life...students, bazaar merchants, oil workers, farmers, nurses...in 400 different cities.” — Ali Safavi [05:03]

• Clarity of Demand: Protest slogans like "death to the dictator" and rejection of both the Shah and current regime reflect a collective yearning for a "democratic future, a republican form of government."
• NCRI’s Provisional Plan:

  “The NCRI announced the formation of a provisional government that would hold free and fair elections...within six months of the Mollah’s overthrow.” — Ali Safavi [06:05]

• Resistance Actions: MEK resistance units conducted ground attacks on regime compounds, showing organization and sacrifice.

  “We lost about 100 and some arrested. But...the remaining members of that 250 assault force returned safely.” — Ali Safavi [07:10]

4. Significance and Aftermath of Khamenei’s Assassination

[07:32–09:15]

• Leadership Decapitation:

  “It beheaded the regime, eliminated...the linchpin of the clerical establishment.” — Ali Safavi [07:47]

• Power Vacuum & Regime Instability: Dismisses the ability of a council to fill Khamenei’s unique position, foresees imminent "fragmentation within the regime."
• International Posture: Criticizes the West’s history of appeasement and lack of clear support for regime change; points to the UK’s failure to label the IRGC as terrorists.
• Turning Point:

  “That was a watershed moment. And we are now in an entirely new face, a new...strategic situation.” — Ali Safavi [08:48]

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On External Calls for Uprising:

  “They will decide to rise up when they think the time is right...To expect that when bombs are dropping for millions of Iranians to come to the streets, it’s just very unrealistic.” — Ali Safavi [03:17]

• On the Opposition’s Preparedness:

  “The organized resistance also is ready...there is an organized opposition to do this.” — Ali Safavi [07:19]

• On Future Vision:

  “We are very hopeful for and we have fought for for 47 years. So this is a very realistic, objective, very realistic future. And it will come. It just takes time, it takes effort, it takes sacrifice.” — Ali Safavi [06:41]

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Timestamps for Important Segments

• 00:37 – Introduction to Ali Safavi & main topic: regime change in Iran possible?
• 01:19 – Safavi outlines decades-long resistance and why change is now possible.
• 03:02 – On Iranian independence and why outside prompts won't incite action.
• 04:46 – How current events have unified and organized domestic opposition.
• 07:44 – The significance of Khamenei’s death and projections for the regime's future.

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Summary Flow & Tone

Ali Safavi presents an articulate, firm, and hopeful perspective on Iran’s imminent transition, emphasizing indigenous agency and organized resistance. The tone is resolute and practical, grounded in decades of opposition struggle and a clear-eyed assessment of the regime’s vulnerabilities. The conversation effectively conveys both the challenges and the real prospect for a democratic, republican Iran.

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For listeners seeking to understand the prospects for change in Iran, the inner workings of the opposition, and the significance of Khamenei’s assassination, this episode provides authoritative insight and context straight from a key figure of the Iranian resistance.

Transcript

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[Interviewer]

well, one of the reasons offered by the administration as to go to war with Iran is potentially regime change. A lot of folks are asking, is that possible? Who would ignite that regime change and who perhaps would assume power? I think our next guest has some views on that. Ali Safavi. He is a member of Iran's parliament in exile, the National Council of Resistance of Iran, and he's also a president of Near Easter Policy Research, which is a consulting and policy analysis firm in Washington, D.C. ali, thanks so much for joining us here. Is regime change possible with these events in Iran over the last several days?

[Ali Safavi]

First of all, good to be with you. Well, regime change is indeed possible, there's no doubt about it, because you have a nation that has been suppressed for 47 years. You have had 100,000 dissidents of the main Iranian opposition, the mujaheddin, executed by this regime. And you saw this past January, thousands were slaughtered. And of course, we have seen the same thing happening in 2022, 2019, 2017. And yes, the Iranian people are very determined despite the cost that it has exacted on them to overthrow this regime. But that said, we as a resistance movement that has been fighting this regime for 47 years and the previous regime, the Shah's regime since 1965, do not believe that change will come from the air. Change will not come through foreign intervention. Change must come from within Iran, underground, indigenous, organic by the Iranian people, and by a very potent and structured resistance within Iran itself. But yes, change is indeed possible. I think the Iranian regime is at the end of the line that their economy is bankrupt, the currency is in a free fall, there's massive unemployment, systemic corruption, and the regional policy has been defeated. So yes, indeed, change is at hand.

[Interviewer]

So President Trump called on the Iranian people to rise up and topple their government. Do you expect that the Iranian people are prepared to do that?

[Ali Safavi]

I believe that the Iranian people are very independent minded people, as has been demonstrated throughout our history. And they're not going to rise up or sit down on a call of anybody from the outside. They will decide to rise up when they think the time is right. Obviously, at this current moment, with the bombs dropping all over Iran, Iranian people are understandably careful not to do anything to get themselves into harm's way. After all, there's a war ongoing, but as Mrs. Rajavi said the other day, that they should try to take care, take care of especially those who've been injured. And she also called on the all parties involved to exercise restraint when it comes to Iranian infrastructure and civilian areas. And, yes, they will rise up, but in a methodic way. And this has to be organized. To expect that when bombs are dropping for millions of Iranians to come to the streets, it's just very unrealistic. No similar situation. You have seen people coming up. But once this conflict subsides, and given that the Iranian regime is weakened tremendously with the loss of Khamenei, which, as Mrs. Rajavi said yesterday, means the end of the religious tyranny in Iran, they will come out, but it has to be in an organized fashion. Nothing will happen spontaneously.

[Interviewer]

In what ways has the current conflict altered the domestic political or social environment inside Iran?

[Ali Safavi]

Well, a very good question. Well, I think it has demonstrated to the people of Iran that the possibility to toppling this regime is much greater than any other time in the history of our nation. And it has also shown that the Iranian people, in order to topple this regime, they must get organized. And, and I think if you look at the trend of events in Iran, particularly since 2017, you see that happening. Previously, there were protests by, let's say, some sectors of Iranian society. But what happened in January, you had basically all walks of life in Iran, from students to bazaar merchants to oil workers to farmers, nurses, you name it, were out on the streets. And this wasn't just in one or two cities. It was in 400 different cities in 31 provinces. And interestingly, the slogans were all universal. One, death to the dictator, two, down with the oppressor, whether the shah or the leader, meaning that the Iranian people, having learned the lessons of the 1979 revolution, when an imposter like Khomeini came in from abroad and stole that revolution, they are not very clear the eye. They know exactly what they want. They don't want relics of the past and they don't want the current regime. They want to look to the future, which is a democratic future, a republican form of government. Which is why Mrs. Rajavi and the NCRI announced the formation of a provisional government that would hold free and fair elections in Iran within six months of the Mollah's overthrow to elect a constituent assembly of whose members elected by the Iranian people would draft a new constitution for a new republic and lead Iran into the 21st century towards a glorious future which we are very hopeful for and we have fought for for 47 years. So this is a very realistic, objective, very realistic future. And it will come. It just takes time, it takes effort, it takes sacrifice. And it. Iranian people are ready. They're ready. And of course the organized resistance also is ready. Bear in mind that before the US attacked Khamenei's compound a week earlier, the MEK resistance units attacked 250 of them and they had no drones and they had no Tomahawk missiles. They attacked it on the ground, while of course we lost about 100 and some arrested. But. But the remaining members of that 250 assault force returned safety. So there is an organized opposition to do this.

[Interviewer]

Mr. Savvy, the Ayatollah Khamenei was targeted and killed by the US military. How important of an event is that and what is next for the clerical leadership of Iran given that assassination?

[Ali Safavi]

Well, that was a very, very important development in a sense. It beheaded the regime, eliminated, if you would, the linchpin of the clerical establishment. And I do not believe, despite the pretenses that you see these days, a three man council trying to appoint his successor, that's not going to happen. Khamenei's stature and power emerge for him. Being at the helm for 39 years, nobody can replace him. And I think in the weeks ahead you will see some sort of, if you will, I don't want to call it disintegration, but fragmentation within the regime itself. And of course, to the extent that the organized opposition and the Iranian people can get better organized, take actions that is needed to be taken, I think change will come. Change will come. And I must say that a firm policy vis a vis the Iranian regime is helpful to the Iranian people. Remember that for 47 years the west offered concessions to this regime. Even now, some countries are not willing to call for the overthrow of the Iranian regime. The British haven't yet put the IRGC on the terrorist list. And so I think that was a watershed moment. And we are now in an entirely new face, a new, if you will, strategic situation.

[Interviewer]

Yep. Ali, thank you so much, sir. Ali Savvy, he is the member of Iran's parliament in exile, that is the National Council of Resistance of Iran with the reporting from what may come next for the leadership of Iran. But again, the military operation continues and Mr. Safavi saying this will take time.

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