Rep. Jason Smith Talks Tariffs, Trade Uncertainty

Summary

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Podcast Summary: Rep. Jason Smith Talks Tariffs, Trade Uncertainty

Podcast: Bloomberg Talks
Date: February 23, 2026
Host: Bloomberg
Guest: Rep. Jason Smith, Chairman of the House Ways and Means Committee

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Episode Overview

This episode centers on the aftermath of President Trump’s recent 15% tariff announcement, the Supreme Court’s decision limiting presidential emergency powers on tariffs, and the growing uncertainty for trade policy in the U.S. Bloomberg’s host interviews Rep. Jason Smith, who discusses tariff impacts, legislative prospects, economic effects, party divisions, and current government funding battles.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Tariff Revenue and Refunds

• The Supreme Court ruling doesn’t mean immediate tariff refunds.
• Tariffs generated significant revenue and fiscal impact:
  • “The tariffs that were in place would reduce the national [deficit] by $3 trillion.” (Smith, 01:46)
  • The administration will maintain similar tariffs using other statutory authority even after the Supreme Court’s decision.
• Legal proceedings on refunds will be lengthy:
  • “It’s going to be a process that’s going to take three to four years probably before it’s addressed.” (Smith, 02:45)

2. Ongoing Trade Uncertainty

• The Supreme Court’s lack of clarity adds to corporate America’s uncertainty.
• Smith argues there’s now more certainty with the likely lack of tariff refunds:
  • “There’s probably not going to be any refunds. I don’t see a pathway in Congress that there’s going to be refunds.” (Smith, 03:34)
  • Tariff revenue is expected to continue funding deficit reduction.

3. On Tariffs as Consumer Price Hike & Partisan Positions

• Smith notes the partisan and intra-party divides over tariffs:
  • “There’s not a uniform opinion of one party… there’s a bipartisan division when it comes to those different items.” (Smith, 04:26)
• He frames tariffs as benefiting U.S. manufacturers and farmers:
  • “Who benefited from tariffs was US Manufacturers and US Farmers.” (Smith, 04:26)

4. Legislative Action on Tariffs

• Ongoing work on trade policy and tariff codification.
• Recent legislative actions include extending trade preference programs for Haiti and Africa:
  • “We re-instituted and extended the Haiti and the AGOA Trade Preferences Program.” (Smith, 05:30)
  • Efforts continue to address issues like de minimis thresholds for imports, especially from China.

5. Deficit Reduction and Fiscal Concerns

• Tariff revenues alone not enough to offset exploding national debt.
• Fiscal discipline highlighted as a national security issue:
  • “We have to be looking at ways to trim the budget 24/7.” (Smith, 06:09)

6. Party Divisions and Government Shutdown

• Smith criticizes both Republican and Democratic divisions.
  • Remarks on Senator Paul not voting for the “big beautiful bill.”
  • “There’s bigger division in the Democrat Party… That’s why we’re in a government shutdown right now…” (Smith, 06:41)
• DHS funding impasse blamed on “unrealistic expectations” from Democrats:
  • “They’re the ones who shut down government. They need to come back to the table and make sure those TSA agents, the Coast Guard, the Secret Service, FEMA… have paychecks.” (Smith, 07:25)
• ICE remains funded despite government shutdown, countering rhetoric about defunding.

7. Midterm Elections, Immigration, and Party Narrative

• Host questions GOP narrative control as polls move against administration on key issues.
• Smith counters with anecdotal support from his district:
  • “People were very supportive of the president’s immigration policies…” (Smith, 08:44)

8. Expectations for the State of the Union

• Smith previews President Trump to tout:
  • Border security gains
  • Largest tax cut in U.S. history
  • No tax on tips or overtime, tax relief for seniors, expanded child tax credit, Trump investment accounts, 100% expensing
  • Low interest and gas prices; lowest murder rate since 1900; ending eight foreign conflicts
  • “What President Trump has done in his first year of office is more than what most presidents do in eight years.” (Smith, 09:27)

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On the impact of tariffs:
  “The tariffs that were in place would reduce the national [deficit] by $3 trillion, and that’s pretty substantial.”
  — Rep. Jason Smith, 01:46

• On the prospect of refunds:
  “It’s going to be a process that’s going to take three to four years probably before it’s addressed.”
  — Rep. Jason Smith, 02:45

• On congressional division so close to the midterm:
  “There’s not a uniform opinion of one party. In fact, you have Democrats that agree with Republicans and Republicans agree with Democrats on various aspects…”
  — Rep. Jason Smith, 04:26

• On fiscal priorities:
  “We have to be looking at ways to trim the budget 24/7.”
  — Rep. Jason Smith, 06:09

• On Democrats and the government shutdown:
  “They’re the ones who shut down government. They need to come back to the table and make sure those TSA agents, the Coast Guard, the Secret Service, FEMA… have paychecks.”
  — Rep. Jason Smith, 07:25

• On Trump administration’s first year achievements:
  “What President Trump has done in his first year of office is more than what most presidents do in eight years.”
  — Rep. Jason Smith, 09:27

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Timestamps of Key Segments

• 01:46 – Smith on the importance of tariff-driven fiscal revenue
• 02:45 – Lengthy legal uncertainty about potential tariff refunds
• 03:34 – Smith: Corporate America should not expect refunds; deficit impact continues
• 04:26 – Discussion on consumer prices, bipartisan tariff divides
• 05:30 – Recent and ongoing trade legislation efforts highlighted
• 06:09 – The need for ongoing deficit reduction and fiscal vigilance
• 06:41 – Commentary on party divisions and government shutdown details
• 07:25 – Smith on DHS funding stalemate and assigning blame to Democrats
• 08:44 – Midterm electoral outlook and constituent feedback
• 09:27 – Preview of President Trump’s anticipated State of the Union highlights

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Summary

This episode offers an insider’s view from Rep. Jason Smith on the volatile state of U.S. trade and tariff policy in 2026 following the Supreme Court’s pivotal ruling. Smith is notably skeptical about the prospects of tariff refunds, emphasizes the bipartisan nature of tariff debates, and blames Democrats for the DHS shutdown. He eagerly previews President Trump’s anticipated highlights for the State of the Union while defending his trade, tax, and immigration records. The conversation highlights both legislative gridlock and deep divides in Washington amid a heated pre-midterm climate.

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Transcript

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[Representative Jason Smith]

Bloomberg Audio Studios

[Interviewer / Host]

Podcasts Radio News the European Parliament is sent to freeze ratification of its U.S. trade deal. The bloc demanded clarity after President Trump's new 15% tariff. The move follows a Supreme Court ruling limiting his emergency powers. EU leaders say approval can't move forward amid growing trade uncertainty. Let's stay on tariffs, and I'm joined now by Missouri Representative Jason Smith, who also serves as the chairman of the House Ways and Means Committee Committee, and he is the chief tax writer in Congress. Chairman Smith, thank you so much for joining us this morning. Let's start with the elephant in the room. The tariffs were a big source of fiscal revenue for 2025. Do you anticipate that that all will get refunded, and if not all, much of it will get refunded.

[Representative Jason Smith]

Now, to say that the tariffs were a significant impact of revenue is is to say it lightly. In fact, it has been projected by the Congressional Budget Office that the tariffs that were in place would reduce the national it by $3 trillion, and that's pretty substantial. However, the Supreme Court decision is not going to affect the revenue that's coming in for the most part, because under a lot of the the federal trade statutes in regards to unfair trade, Whether it's Section 122, 301 or 232, the President is going to be able to levy his authority to implement virtually the same tariffs that were in place under IPA that the Supreme Court threw out.

[Interviewer / Host]

Sure. But the tar tariffs that were implemented through ia. Representative Smith, is it your message maybe to corporate America, that if they've joined this lawsuit, that maybe they shouldn't be expecting the Tariff refunds. How do you expect that to play out?

[Representative Jason Smith]

You know, it's really unfortunate. The Supreme Court was crickets when it came to their very large, their large opinion, but they didn't even address this. So, of course, now it's going to be reprimanded down to the lower courts. They will make those decisions. But it's going to be a process that's going to take three to four years probably before it's addressed.

[Interviewer / Host]

There is this question of uncertainty. That's certainly one of them. Chairman Smith, what's going to happen with the refunds? But then there is this other lingering uncertainty of having a president who first announces 10% tariffs and then 15% with section 122, which can only be in place for a limited number of days. How is this helping uncertainty in corporate America? Do you think that there could have been an argument to just said, okay, the Supreme Court has made its decision and we carry on as is?

[Representative Jason Smith]

You know, certainty is great for the economy. That's why we passed the big beautiful bill, the working families tax cut, six months early to give the certainty to those small businesses, those big companies. But in regards to the tariffs, I think it's very certain there's probably not going to be any refunds. I don't see a pathway in Congress that there's going to be refunds. And so you're going to look at, over the course of President Trump's administration, he's going to continue to use those tariff revenues to bring down on the deficit.

[Interviewer / Host]

There is another matter to this, though, and it can easily and many people have framed this as simply a consumer price hike. Representative Smith, do you expect that all of the Republicans in Congress will be behind this when we're just three and a half months away from a midterm election where affordability is on the ticket?

[Representative Jason Smith]

I think it's very important to understand trade policy just as a whole of where it is with all Americans, but also all members of Congress and the United States Senate. It's a deeply divided issue whether you're reporting Republican or whether you're a Democrat. There's not a uniform opinion of one party. In fact, you have Democrats that agree with Republicans and Republicans agree with Democrats on various aspects of whether they're pro tariffs or they're anti tariffs. So if something moves forward from a legislative perspective, it will have to be bipartisan because it is such a bipartisan division when it comes to those different items. But let's look at what tariffs have done. We have the lowest trade deficits since 2008, 9. And when you refund tariffs, you're refunding money to corporations that benefit by purchasing products outside of the United States. Who benefited from tariffs was US Manufacturers and US Farmers.

[Interviewer / Host]

So to be clear, are you and your colleagues working on legislation right now to codify tariffs?

[Representative Jason Smith]

We've been working on trade legislation throughout my three years as chairman of the Ways and Means. If you just, if you just look at, most recently in the last month, we re instituted and extended the Haiti and the AGOA Trade Preferences Program. So we're in the middle of all the different trading aspects. If you look at the big beautiful bill we addressed de minimis when it came to China and other packages coming in the United States, we're going to continue to do so.

[Interviewer / Host]

Tariffs or not, the debt is still exploding because in large part, the one big beautiful bill. Representative Smith, are we done cutting the deficit? Is this it?

[Representative Jason Smith]

For now, we can't be done cutting the deficit. When you look at a national security threat, it's definitely our fiscal house. When you're looking at approaching $40 trillion in national debt, we have to be looking at ways to trim the budget 24 7.

[Interviewer / Host]

So are you then, with all of this disappointed in a lot of your Republican colleagues? There have been some Senator Paul, Representative Bacon, who publicly applauded the Supreme Court ruling. Representative Smith, it doesn't seem like there's cohesion at this moment.

[Representative Jason Smith]

Well, Senator Paul didn't vote for the big beautiful bill either. So there's always division within the Republican Party. But guess what? There's bigger division in the Democrat Party because Hakeem Jeffries is not even the minority leader of the House. His liberal base affects all of his policies, his decisions. That's why we're in a government shutdown right now with the Department of Homeland Security. And why they're not funding Tsunami TSA agents in the airport, why they're not funding fema, and why they're not funding the US Coast Guard.

[Interviewer / Host]

Yeah, there's a lot of backlash this weekend about a brief decision to shut down TSA. PreCheck Chairman Smith, where do we stand on funding the Department of Homeland Security? Is there any movement?

[Representative Jason Smith]

There has been zero movement. From what I have seen, the Democrats are demanding unrealistic expectations and solutions. They're the ones who shut down government. They need to come back to the table and make sure those tsa, TSA agents, the Coast Guard, the Secret Service, fema, that they have paychecks.

[Interviewer / Host]

There still has been just mass outrage about what's happening with immigration and with ice. Representative Smith, where, Where would anyone budge on this? How does it come to a solution?

[Representative Jason Smith]

Well, what doesn't make sense is that they say they want to defund ice, but guess what? ICE was funded for four years in the one big beautiful bill. So by shutting down the Department of Homeland Security budget, that does not affect funding of ice. ICE is continuing to be funded because we did it for four years. So it is absolutely only politics of why the Democrats are shutting down government. They say that they're doing to defund ice, but they know that they're not defunding ICE by shutting down.

[Interviewer / Host]

Some of the polls, though, have moved in the wrong direction for this administration. Be it on, on things the president ran on, on immigration, on this economy, on affordability and a half months away from the midterms. Is this an administration and a party, a gop that risks losing control of the narrative?

[Representative Jason Smith]

Anyone can find a poll that favors their narrative. There's no question about it. What I will say is, is I was back home in my congressional district all last week, traveling throughout my 28 counties, and people were very supportive of the president's immigration policies and securing the border and the fact that 3 million people have illegals have been deported or voluntarily left.

[Interviewer / Host]

I still think some of the images coming out have shocked people. But all this said Representative Smith, there are a lot of issues that this administration now needs to tackle, especially in light of Friday's ruling. What are you expecting for the president's State of the Union address tomorrow?

[Representative Jason Smith]

I think the president's going to highlight what he's done in his first year, not office, which I believe what President Trump has done in his first year of office is more than what most presidents do in eight years. When you look at securing the border, which we just discussed, creating the largest tax cut in U.S. history and fulfilling his campaign promises of no tax on tips, no tax on overtime, tax relief for seniors, increasing the child tax credit, creating the Trump investment accounts, making 100% expensing of new factories. You've seen more than $10 trillion of investment, investment come back into the United States. We have the lowest interest rate in five years, the lowest gas prices in five years, and guess what? The murder rate in the United States is the lowest since 1900. These are huge successes. But when you look on the foreign stage, the president has a limp, has, has eliminated eight different conflicts. So I think that's a lot of success that some presidents would be begging

[Interviewer / Host]

for war, although there might be another conflict brewing with Iran or at least an escalation which also might undo some of the work in gas and oil prices. Representative Smith, we're going to have to leave it there. Thank you for joining us. Representative JASON JASON smith, chairman of the House Ways and Means Committee.

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