Podcast Host / Interviewer (4:28)

Knew as a kid. Ricardo Houseman with us of Harvard University, folks, we're thrilled that he could be with Shannon o'. Neill. Coming up, we welcome all of you around the world. Please subscribe YouTube podcast Paul and I humbled by the digital success this year. Paul Sweeney with Ricardo Haussmann professor, do.

Paul Sweeney (4:45)

We know or what can you tell us about what the average Venezuelan really on the ground wants from this government going forward or from any government?

Ricardo Hausmann (4:56)

Well, I mean Venezuelans voted massively in favor of a change of direction right when they were allowed to have a primary that the government tried to prevent. Well, Maria Corina Machado won with 90 plus percent of the vote when she was not allowed to run and she anointed somebody to run instead, they voted. This guy won with a margin of 40 points and he didn't want by more because they did not let us Venezuelans abroad vote and they did not let 3 million young Venezuelans register. Had that happened, he would have won with an even larger margin. So Venezuelans are unified politically in a new direction. If you allowed Venezuelans to choose, they would choose a very competitive legal framework for oil and they would engineer an oil boom. We don't need American help to engineer an oil boom because the world is full of oil companies that would want to get back into Venezuela under the right conditions and we have a political majority to create the right conditions. But this system that they have described right now, it's not workable. It's something that works on one on a day to day basis that they're saying, well, we leave the same bad guys that were in power before the Guys who are indicted, I mean, the guys who are in the same indictment as Nicolas Maduro, one is the Minister of Defense and the other one is the Minister of the Internal police. So it's the same guys were there and they pretend to say, well, we are going to tell them what to do and they're going to do our bidding. But when they say our bidding, they think that they can get a recovery of Venezuela without empowering Venezuelan citizens with rights. That's not going to work.

Paul Sweeney (6:54)

Professor Izur, do you think there's a scenario where the Trump administration can in fact exert control over this government like I think they think they can?

Ricardo Hausmann (7:04)

Well, I mean, what they think they, they can is to say either you do what I tell you or I kill you because I have drones, I don't want to put boots on the ground. I have drones, I have missiles, I can kill you, so you better do what we want.

Podcast Host / Interviewer (7:17)

But Ricardo, interrupt. Ricardo. But Paul nailed it with that question. What this is about is in his direct community, violence. Whether it's Cuba or Venezuela. I mean, President Trump and his advocates have to decide if they want to participate with people who are violent. How do you, in your Venezuela, how do we move forward to a constructive end? What's the Houseman process in January, February and March of this year?

Ricardo Hausmann (7:54)

Well, you want to empower the people who have strategic interests that are aligned with you and that is all the Venezuelan democrats. So this idea that you can do your thing without having to deal with the organized Venezuelan opposition that under enormously difficult situations was able to win an election and win big, you want to empower them to help you, you want a strategic alliance with them. But you don't want to hear this dismissive description of Maria Corino Machado as somebody who's not respected in Venezuela. I challenge you to mention somebody in the world who's more respected than Maria Corina Machado. Obviously she's super respected in Venezuela. That's why she can win elections in Venezuela. Now that's different from saying she has the command over troops.

Podcast Host / Interviewer (8:50)

We're gonna have Shannon o' Neill with this, Professor Houseman. But let me ask this viscerally. This came up Paul, last night at the dining room table. Where does the military of Venezuela fit in? I mean, if I look at the Philippines and the shift from Duterte to the younger Marcos, the military played a part there. Instability. Is the military of your Venezuela stable or unstable?

Ricardo Hausmann (9:16)

The military of Venezuela is led by, by a narco terrorist organization and they're still in power but below that, there's a lot of people who would be willing, who would want to go back to a more democratic regime under civilian rule, but they cannot. They're not allowed to organize. They're being spied by the military secret police, and they're being put in prison. They're being tortured. So what we need, if Trump is going to demand something from Delsey Rodriguez, is that she deliver Yozdado Cabego, the head of the police, Vladimir Padrino, the Minister of defense. Those are the heads of the cartel, of the Suns, el Cartel de los Orles. They are the narco traffickers. They are now in charge of the country, and they are the ones who are who yesterday put in prison 12 journalists so that the number of political prisoners in Venezuela is going up, not down. So you want to fix the country. You need to get rid of this leadership, this corrupt criminal leadership that is in control of the army and to empower the bulk of the army to go back to civilian rule.

Podcast Host / Interviewer (10:44)

Paul, get. One more question, Professor.

Paul Sweeney (10:46)

Is there a scenario where the people of Venezuela rise up and force change?

Ricardo Hausmann (10:52)

I think that, you know, everybody now is willing to give a line of credit because, you know, we've tried so hard to get rid of Maduro and we weren't able to do it on our own. So everybody's very happy that, that the US Was able to get rid of Maduro, but. And they're hoping that this is the beginning of a good process. But, you know, the statements of Trump after At Mar a Lago and afterwards were extremely disempowering and concerning. They described a vision for the future that I do not think is going to work. And I don't think that Venezuelans are going to feel that that is the right frame.

Podcast Host / Interviewer (11:38)

Professor Houseman, thank you so much for leading our coverage this morning. Ricard Houseman with the Kennedy School, Harvard. And of course, look to his piercing essay in the Economist.

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