Richard Haas on Iran War

Summary

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Podcast Summary: Bloomberg Talks – Richard Haass on Iran War

Date: April 7, 2026
Guest: Richard Haass (President Emeritus, Council on Foreign Relations; Senior Counselor, Centerview Partners)
Host: Bloomberg

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Episode Overview

This episode features Richard Haass discussing the mounting tensions and diplomatic maneuvering around the Iran conflict. As the clock ticks toward an 8pm deadline for potential escalation, Haass provides a candid assessment of U.S. strategy, potential off-ramps, the realities of Iranian regime resilience, and the challenges of achieving meaningful and lasting solutions. The conversation focuses on realpolitik, the limits of military action, and the critical importance of diplomatic channels—even when direct dialogue with adversaries is lacking.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

The State of Diplomacy and Next Steps

• Pakistan's Role
  • Pakistan is uniquely positioned as it maintains good relations with the U.S., Iran, and China.
  • Pakistan is key in diplomacy and is helping "buy more time," given Iran still ships oil through the Strait of Hormuz via their territory.
  • Haass: "They've been one of the few countries that Iran continues to ship oil to through the Strait of Hormuz. And the idea that they're essentially trying to buy more time is realistic." (01:21)
• Diplomatic Momentum
  • There’s recognition that a comprehensive deal—covering nuclear issues or reopening the strait—is impossible to achieve before tonight’s deadline, but a pause or extension is realistic and positive.
  • Haass is cautious about any U.S. military escalation, warning against following through on President Trump's threats, fearing it could trigger a "much more destructive wider war." (01:53)

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Potential Off-Ramps and Priorities

• Defining Off-Ramps
  • Haass identifies three core priorities:
    1. Stop the war.
    2. Open the Strait of Hormuz.
    3. Place a "verifiable ceiling" on Iran's nuclear program.
  • The most urgent: immediately reopening the Strait and achieving a ceasefire, with the nuclear issue to be tackled in later negotiations.
  • Haass: "...There's no way you can get them done quickly, but I would think the most urgent is to get the strait open and to get some type of a cease fire, or hopefully more than that. And then over time, I think you can address the nuclear program through negotiations." (02:53)
• Realism About Outcomes
  • Haass repeatedly emphasizes that maximalist aims—such as regime change or permanent disarmament—are unrealistic.
  • Haass: "You've got to set achievable, reasonable objectives ... There has to be some close connection between your hands and the means that you're prepared to employ to bring them about." (05:25)
  • The path forward relies on diplomacy and limited, targeted military actions when absolutely necessary.

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Military Options: Limitations and Risks

• Elimination vs. Degradation
  • The idea of “eliminating” Iran's drone or missile capabilities is futile—these can be built in basements, hidden, or regenerated.
  • Haass: "Eliminated is too ambitious. Iran can continue to produce drones... Missiles, you'll never find all of them. You can degrade, you can diminish military capability. But if your goal is to effectively disarm, then you're talking about perpetual war." (04:09)
• Concerns about Targeting Civilian Infrastructure
  • Destruction of civilian infrastructure (bridges, power plants) could backfire, undermining U.S. interests postwar by demoralizing the Iranian population and reducing prospects for cooperation.
  • Haass is skeptical that even successful attacks would achieve desired strategic outcomes.

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Iranian Regime Resilience & U.S. Objectives

• No Regime Collapse
  • Haass dismisses the notion that the regime is near collapse, stating it's "preposterous"—it remains deeply entrenched and institutionalized.
  • Haass: "This is a regime that's heavily institutionalized. This is not Venezuela. We're not talking about removing a slice and everything crumbles. This is a deeply institutionalized, institutionalized religious, political and military establishment." (06:37)
  • In fact, recent crises have consolidated the regime's position.
• Refuting White House Rhetoric
  • President Trump's assertion of “complete and total regime change” is vigorously disputed by Haass.
  • Haass: "We should, for the time being, accept the unfortunate fact that the regime is going to stay, the Iranian people are going to be the losers." (06:53)

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U.S. Policy Choices Going Forward

• Staying or Walking Away
  • While the President could theoretically declare victory and disengage, Haass warns this would be reckless ("we broke it, you own it").
  • He advocates for a middle ground: limited military options and renewed diplomatic efforts are both available and preferable.
  • Haass: "So I think walking away from it, quite honestly, would be irresponsible. The good news is there's a lot of space between walking away from it on one hand and doing what the president talked about, bombing bridges and power plants. There's a lot of space for certain limited military operations. More important, there's a lot of space for diplomacy." (07:36)

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Military Escalation:
  “I simply don't see the upside of the United States carrying out the threats that President Trump made. I simply don't see what, what, if anything, positive we get for it. But I do think it could lead to a much more destructive wider war.”
  — Richard Haass (01:53)

• On Regime Resilience:
  “This is not Venezuela… This is a deeply institutionalized, institutionalized religious, political and military establishment.”
  — Richard Haass (06:37)

• On Setting Realistic Goals:
  “The most ambitious aims are simply non starters. Realistic aims are the ones I talked about to put a ceiling on Iran's nuclear program, probably through diplomacy, and to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. I think those are both essential. The good news is they're, they're potentially feasible as well.”
  — Richard Haass (05:39)

• On Walking Away:
  “I think walking away from it, quite honestly, would be irresponsible ... there's a lot of space for diplomacy. That should be our focus.”
  — Richard Haass (07:40)

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Timestamps for Important Segments

• 00:36 – Host introduces Richard Haass and sets up the discussion about the current Iran crisis.
• 01:13 – Haass discusses Pakistan's diplomatic importance and the push for more time.
• 02:48 – Key priorities for any resolution: ceasefire, open Strait of Hormuz, nuclear oversight.
• 04:09 – Realities of military limitations: drones, missiles, and perpetual conflict.
• 05:09 – Regime change dismissed as unattainable; focus on realistic objectives.
• 06:22 – Detailed refutation of U.S. administration's claims about regime collapse.
• 07:26 – The strategic dangers of “walking away” vs. escalation; advocates for targeted diplomacy.

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Tone & Takeaway:
Haass is direct, measured, and realistic—he stresses the power of diplomacy, the risks of maximalist messaging, and the durability of Iran’s current regime. Listeners come away with a clear-eyed view of the complexity, urgency, and the potential (albeit limited) avenues for avoiding further escalation in the Iran conflict.

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Transcript

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[Amy Morris]

Bloomberg Audio Studios podcasts Radio news

[Podcast Host]

let's keep this conversation going with Richard Haass. He is president emeritus over at the Council on Foreign Relations and a senior counselor with Centerview Partners. Richard, fantastic to have you with us. So, I mean, as evidenced by what we're seeing just in the past couple of minutes, there's a lot of ambiguity over what happens next, what happens at 8pm tonight. And you know, as you watch these, you know, this back and forth play out, apparently Iran isn't even talking anymore at this point. I mean, what is your gut instinct about what we see transpire over the next five to 24 hours?

[Richard Haass]

Well, it's just as important as what happens tonight is what doesn't happen tonight. Clearly, the pace of diplomacy is picking up. It's not direct between Iran and the United States, but Pakistan is in a critical position. It's one of the few countries, think about it, that is good relations with the United States, with Iran and with China. So that puts them in a special position. They've been one of the few countries that Iran continues to ship oil to through the Strait of Hormuz. And the idea that they're essentially trying to buy more time is realistic. There's no way you can get a deal done between now and 8 o' clock to deal with the nuclear issue, the strait or anything else. So the to ask for a couple of weeks to maybe try to get the straight open either way, I think that's essentially a good sign in large part. I'll be straight with you. I simply don't see the upside of the United States carrying out the threats that President Trump made. I simply don't see what, what, if anything, positive we get for it. But I do think it could lead to a much more destructive wider war.

[Podcast Host]

So maybe we do see, you know, some more time bought before 8pm tonight. But you think about it, we've seen a lot of extensions over the couple of weeks and all the while we've seen the rhetoric really on both sides escalate. And certainly that social media post that we got from President Trump this morning maybe takes the cake there. But when it comes to, you know, the off ramp, I think that's where a lot of people struggle, what the theoretical off ramp would be, given that, you know, tensions are so high right now.

[Richard Haass]

There's any number of potential off ramps. You know, there's probably three priorities. One is to stop the war. Two is to open the strait. Three, Three is to place some sort of a verifiable ceiling on Iran's nuclear program. Those are the three goals. Again, there's no way you can get them done quickly, but I would think the most urgent is to get the strait open and to get some type of a cease fire, or hopefully more than that. And then over time, I think you can address the nuclear program through negotiations. And I think that's, that's all optimistic, but not unrealistic.

[Podcast Co-host]

Well, I am curious about just kind of the deliberative strategy, if at all, that we're seeing out of the US Side of this and to who's really driving this, because there seems to be a lot of reports basically saying with military leaders, I guess, trying to push back on some of the requests that Trump is making behind closed doors, not in defiance, but just, you know, I guess a nod to the reality of how they need to carry out their missions. Here we know that whatever, I guess ballistic missile drone capabilities, they have have not been completely eliminated based on the couple of jets that we lost over the weekend here. Should that be a mission that maybe should be a little bit more at the forefront to make sure that that threat is eliminated?

[Richard Haass]

Eliminated is too ambitious. Iran can continue to produce drones. Look what, look what Ukraine does. Every basement is a drone factory. So the idea that you're going to eliminate their physical military capability to interfere with shipping or their ability to hit a desalinization plant or an energy refinery is simply not possible. Missiles, you'll never find all of them. You can degrade, you can diminish military capability. But if your goal is to effectively disarm, then you're talking about perpetual war.

[Podcast Co-host]

There has been a lot of debate, and I want to get too much into the ethics of it, but at least from a strategy standpoint, this idea of some of the degradation we've seen to civilian infrastructure, the idea that even if we somehow win this war, we somehow get the Iranian regime to capitulate, there is some concern here that we have maybe demoralized a lot of the rank and file people on the ground who in theory we would need to some degree to Support whatever the US's aims are post war.

[Richard Haass]

Well, first of all, we're not going to get the Iranians to capitulate. They've got a lot of leverage. Hopefully we can get them at some point to agree to a peace, at most a compromise. But the idea that they're going to capitulate, I put off to the side. I put off to the side any hope of regime change. If anything, the regime's probably in a stronger place now than it was five weeks ago. Look, in any foreign policy endeavor, particularly in war, you've got to set achievable, reasonable objectives. They've got to, there has to be some close connection between your hands and the means that you're prepared to employ to bring them about. So the most ambitious aims are simply non starters. Realistic aims are the ones I talked about to put a ceiling on Iran's nuclear program, probably through diplomacy, and to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. I think those are both essential. The good news is they're, they're potentially feasible as well.

[Podcast Host]

And Richard, I want to go back to what you said, that you know, if anything the Iranian regime is stronger now, in a stronger position because you think about again what we got from the President this morning posting on Truth Social, that in his view we have have complete and total regime change. It sounds like you disagree with that.

[Richard Haass]

Well, it's preposterous. You still have the revolution in charge of Iran that came in 79. Some individuals have been killed, obviously from the Ayatollah to several military and intelligence leaders. But the regime, the system is still intact. You've got political leadership, clerical leadership, you've got military leadership. You have the regular army, you have the Revolutionary Guards, you have the besieged, the neighborhood community, people with, who go out in the streets with sticks. This is a regime that's heavily institutionalized. This is not Venezuela. We're not talking about removing a slice and everything crumbles. This is a deeply institutionalized, institutionalized religious, political and military establishment. So we should, for the time being, accept the unfortunate fact that the regime is going to stay, the Iranian people are going to be the losers and we've got, we've got to deal with the government. We have not. That's the one we want.

[Podcast Co-host]

Do you think it's a plausible scenario that the US actually walks away from this?

[Richard Haass]

Well, again, the President could declare victory and quote, unquote, walk away. I think that would be a big mistake. It's what I would call we broke it, you own it. We have the challenge of opening up the strait. We have the challenge of the nuclear program. So I think walking away from it, quite honestly, would be irresponsible. The good news is there's a lot of space between walking away from it on one hand and doing what the president talked about, bombing bridges and power plants. There's a lot of space for certain limited military operations. More important, there's a lot of space for diplomacy. That should be our focus.

[Podcast Co-host]

Richard, always a pleasure. Always great insights. Richard Haass, president emeritus at the Council on Foreign Relations, now a senior counselor with Centerview Partners.

[Amy Morris]

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