Bloomberg Talks

Episode: Robinhood CEO Vlad Tenev Talks Prediction Markets
Date: December 17, 2025

Main Theme

This episode features an in-depth conversation with Vlad Tenev, CEO of Robinhood, focusing on the company's rapidly expanding prediction markets, the integration of AI-powered trading tools, their acquisition strategy, and regulatory challenges. The discussion explores Robinhood’s ambition to redefine consumer and institutional engagement in financial markets, making complex products more accessible and pushing toward a financial “super app.”

Key Discussion Points & Insights

Robinhood's Prediction Markets: Explosive Growth and Versatility

• Origins & Expansion

  • Robinhood launched prediction markets with just one contract (the 2024 US presidential election). In just over a year, this offering has grown to over 1,500 contracts spanning politics, world affairs, economics, culture, weather, and most recently, sports. (01:20)
  • Vlad predicts further acceleration, envisioning tens of thousands—and eventually "pretty much any event"—being tradable in real-time.

• Disrupting Insurance and Other Industries

  • Weather contracts enable users to hedge risks similar to insurance, hinting at future disruption for industries like insurance. (01:20)
  • Notably, Robinhood expects non-sports contracts will outpace sports as the market matures.

  Quote:
  “Trading and hedging with the insurance weather contract could be superior to buying traditional insurance through a broker.”
  — Vlad Tenev (02:30)

• Innovation Versus Traditional Betting

  • Their “combination trades” for sports differ from traditional sportsbook parlays by operating on regulated exchanges where buyers and sellers are matched, bringing financial market rigor to sports wagering. (01:20)

Market Integrity: Insider Trading and Consumer Protections

• Insider Trading in Prediction Markets

  • Vlad delineates between state-regulated sports betting (with recent “incidents”) and Robinhood’s exchange-based prediction markets.
  • Emphasizes that financial markets are uniquely equipped to handle insider trading, given decades of surveillance infrastructure. (03:32)

  Quote:
  “Financial markets have had the infrastructure... to deal with these types of concerns, and they’ve been dealing with it for decades.”
  — Vlad Tenev (03:52)

• Consumer Protections and Addiction Concerns

  • Robinhood views most prediction market users as strategists, not pure gamblers.
  • Points to the platform’s broad range of topics (e.g., the Warner Brothers merger acquisition) as fostering analytical, not just emotional, engagement. (04:52)
  • Users are urged to understand risks, as with any derivatives trading.

  Quote:
  “There’s a tremendous amount of value in the diversity and variety of contracts. ...there’s systematic trading and people are analyzing these things and have strategies around it.”
  — Vlad Tenev (04:54)

Industry Competition and Robinhood's Position

• Market Leadership & Ledger X Acquisition

  • Robinhood is the largest prediction market broker; Vlad considers the brokerage landscape not very competitive—“pretty much the only game in town.” (07:07)
  • The acquisition of Ledger X, in partnership with SIG, is positioning Robinhood for institutional growth. Vlad suggests that prediction markets, like crypto, will move from retail-dominated to strong institutional participation.

  Quote:
  “Our acquisition, our partnership with SIG to acquire Ledger X... is a way for us to tap into what we believe will be a growing institutional market for this asset class.”
  — Vlad Tenev (07:53)

• Relationship with Kalshi and Industry Multipolarity

  • Vlad welcomes competition, asserting that more exchanges will result in lower transaction fees, higher liquidity, and better outcomes for traders. Robinhood aims to connect to as many exchanges as possible to ensure best execution for its users. (08:44)

Regulation: Gambling versus Trading

• Distinguishing Prediction Markets from Gambling

  • Vlad notes much regulatory debate centers on definitions (“is it trading or gambling?”) but highlights that Robinhood aligns incentives with customers—unlike traditional sportsbooks, Robinhood profits as customers’ account balances grow. (10:30)
  • Acknowledges potential regulatory risks in certain states but sees Robinhood’s exchange-based, multi-product approach as fundamentally different from traditional gambling platforms.

  Quote:
  “Our incentive as a business is to bring on customers and have those customers account balances grow steadily and monotonically over time.”
  — Vlad Tenev (11:40)

"Trump Accounts" for Kids: Stake in the Financial System

• Company Positioning

  • Tenev confirms Robinhood’s engagement with government and sees “Trump accounts” (seeded investment accounts for children) as vital to long-term faith in markets, especially amid AI disruption. (12:56)
  • While focusing on national impact, Robinhood would consider extending similar initiatives internally for employees.

  Quote:
  “...the best way to actually counteract this is, from an early age, give people a stake in what's being built in the great industries of this country.”
  — Vlad Tenev (13:25)

Cortex AI and the Financial Super App Vision

• Cortex AI: Personalized, Real-Time Insights

  • Cortex AI is described as an "agentic system" powered by multiple models, leveraging both customer account data and real-time market information to deliver highly accurate, personalized recommendations. (15:36)
  • Going beyond trade execution, Robinhood aims to help users research, generate ideas, and understand predictions for thousands of real-world events—moving toward a holistic financial “super app.”

  Quote:
  “The goal is to actually help you with the research, the idea, generate the inspiration behind the trade and prediction markets.”
  — Vlad Tenev (16:44)

• Premium Offering and Potential Expansion

  • Currently exclusive to Gold subscribers ($5/month or $50/year), with a high adoption rate among new users. Vlad hints at a possible future basic version if needed, but no current barriers to adoption. (17:34)

Memorable Moments & Notable Quotes

| Timestamp | Speaker | Quote/Comment | |-----------|--------------|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | 01:20 | Vlad Tenev | “We've gone from one to over 1500 contracts on the platform... politics, world affairs, economics, culture, sports...” | | 02:30 | Vlad Tenev | “Trading and hedging with the insurance weather contract could be superior to buying traditional insurance through a broker.” | | 03:52 | Vlad Tenev | “Financial markets have had the infrastructure... to deal with these types of concerns...” | | 04:54 | Vlad Tenev | “There’s a tremendous amount of value in the diversity and variety of contracts...” | | 07:53 | Vlad Tenev | “Our acquisition... Ledger X... is a way for us to tap into what we believe will be a growing institutional market...” | | 11:40 | Vlad Tenev | “Our incentive as a business is to bring on customers and have those customers accounts grow steadily...” | | 13:25 | Vlad Tenev | “...the best way to actually counteract this... give people a stake in what's being built...” | | 16:44 | Vlad Tenev | “The goal is to actually help you with the research, the idea, generate the inspiration behind the trade and prediction markets.” |

Important Timestamps & Segments

• 01:20 — Robinhood's prediction markets expansion and product differences
• 03:32 — Insider trading concerns and comparisons with traditional markets
• 04:52 — Platforms’ consumer protections; preventing addictive betting
• 07:07 — Industry competition and Ledger X acquisition rationale
• 08:44 — Impacts on competitors, price competition, and market structure
• 10:30 — Regulation: the distinction between trading and gambling
• 12:56 — Positioning for government-backed “Trump accounts” for kids
• 15:36 — Cortex AI: features, philosophy, and implementation
• 17:34 — Subscription offerings and Cortex AI’s platform strategy

Tone & Language

Vlad Tenev speaks with the measured optimism of a founder steering disruption while emphasizing regulatory compliance, institutional integrity, and customer alignment. The discussion is fast-paced yet approachable, balancing technical explanation with big-picture vision.

Summary Takeaway

Vlad Tenev positions Robinhood as far more than a retail broker—aiming to build a next-generation “financial super app” where prediction markets, AI-driven tools like Cortex, and broad product innovation converge. The theme is empowerment—giving users unprecedented access to complex financial instruments, promoting responsible participation, and shaping both regulation and industry structure as Robinhood becomes central to a more democratized, data-driven financial future.