Robinhood CEO Vlad Tenev Talks Prediction Markets

Summary

Bloomberg Talks: Robinhood CEO Vlad Tenev Talks Prediction Markets

Date: May 5, 2026
Host: Bloomberg
Guest: Vlad Tenev, Chairman & CEO of Robinhood

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Episode Overview

This episode features Vlad Tenev, CEO of Robinhood, discussing the meteoric rise of prediction markets on the Robinhood platform, their emerging place in the broader financial services landscape, and the company’s innovative ventures—especially the government-backed "Trump Accounts." Tenev also provides perspective on industry layoffs and Robinhood’s competitive posture.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Prediction Markets Overtaking Crypto

• Growth & Revenue Comparison:
  Robinhood’s revenue from event contracts (prediction markets) reached an annualized pace of $415M in Q1, closing in on the $536M pace for crypto.
  • "Prediction markets revenues... now bigger than that from stock trading. The business did not exist just a few quarters ago." ([00:26])
• The Nascent Asset Class:
  Tenev characterizes prediction markets as a nascent but rapidly maturing asset class, coming into the mainstream during the 2024 US election cycle, with more growth anticipated:
  • "And I think we're just at the beginnings of this, of this new asset class.” – Vlad Tenev ([01:01])

2. Sports vs. Non-Sports Contracts

• Initial Dominance of Sports:
  Like other platforms, Robinhood’s prediction market is presently weighted toward sports-related contracts, but non-sports are rapidly gaining ground:
  • "We're seeing non-sports contracts continuing to gain share and sports is just easily understandable... as the product matures we see a world where actually non-sports eventually overtake sports.” – Vlad Tenev ([02:16])
• Potential for Broader Adoption:
  The educational push is important as event-trading expands beyond sports, with Robinhood betting on long-term growth in newer categories.

3. Robinhood's Infrastructure & Strategic Partnerships

• From Partnerships to Vertical Integration:
  Transitioning from third-party partnerships (for exchange and clearing) to a vertically integrated stack, including the acquisition of LedgerX and launch of "Roth ERA" with Susquehanna:
  • "For a while we've been partnering with third parties... but now we have a vertically integrated stack later this quarter.” – Vlad Tenev ([03:15])
• Ecosystem Expansion:
  Kalshi and Forecast X will be alternative exchange providers, with Robinhood remaining open to more integrations to provide user flexibility, best pricing, and contract selection.

4. Justifying Sports Contracts in Financial Services

• Responding to Critics:
  Addressing concerns (posed by other financial CEOs) about offering sports prediction contracts, Tenev emphasizes the economic importance and cultural resilience of sports:
  • "Sports is actually big business and it's a critical part of the economy... much more so than even 20 years ago... the two worlds are starting to converge.” – Vlad Tenev ([05:18])
  • Tenev likens the skepticism about sports contracts to the early days of crypto adoption in finance.

5. Trump Accounts - Government Collaboration

• Program Outline:
  Robinhood, in partnership with BNY Mellon and the US Treasury, will manage “Trump Accounts”—brokerage accounts for every newborn in the US seeded with $1,000:
  • "Robinhood is going to be the sole initial trustee and broker for the Trump accounts... not only designing and building the Trump Accounts app... but we're also the broker.” – Vlad Tenev ([07:13])
• Rollovers & User Experience:
  Parents will eventually be able to move funds to other brokerages; the initial focus is a smooth product launch by July 4th.
  • “There will be rollovers... Everyone’s eyes are on the July 4th launch.” – Vlad Tenev ([08:09])
• Cost-Benefit Justification:
  The $100M development cost will be on a "cost plus" basis—profitable for Robinhood but aligned to government quality and scale expectations.
  • "We’ve got to be ready to scale up to tens of millions of accounts relatively quickly with top notch support and reliability.” – Vlad Tenev ([08:35])

6. Industry Layoffs and Market Conditions

• Layoffs Across Major Players:
  Tenev avoids speculation on layoffs at crypto and fintech firms like Coinbase and PayPal. He notes industry and market volatility may play a role but does not elaborate:
  • "Maybe it's a combination of both. I think the timing, of course, is notable... but I can't really share more than that.” – Vlad Tenev ([09:56])

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On prediction markets as a new asset class:
  "It's a very for us, it's nascent as an asset class... we're just at the beginnings..." – Vlad Tenev ([01:01])

• On non-sports prediction market growth:
  "As the product matures we see a world where actually non sports eventually overtake sports." – Vlad Tenev ([02:16])

• On integrating infrastructure:
  "Now we have a vertically integrated stack later this quarter." – Vlad Tenev ([03:15])

• On why sports betting belongs in financial services:
  "Sports is actually big business and it's a critical part of the economy..." – Vlad Tenev ([05:18])

• On the Trump Accounts initiative:
  "Robinhood is going to be the sole initial trustee and broker for the Trump accounts..." – Vlad Tenev ([07:13])

• On scaling for massive user growth:
  "We've got to be ready to scale up to tens of millions of accounts... with top notch support and reliability." – Vlad Tenev ([08:35])

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Timestamps for Important Segments

• [00:26] Robinhood’s earnings & growth of prediction markets
• [01:01] Mainstreaming of prediction markets
• [02:16] Sports vs. non-sports activity and educational efforts
• [03:15] Infrastructure shift: vertical integration & partnerships
• [05:18] The case for sports prediction markets in finance
• [07:13] Trump Accounts: structure, partners, and rollout plans
• [08:35] Costs and scalability of the Trump Accounts program
• [09:45] Industry layoffs, market volatility, and outlook

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Takeaways

• Robinhood sees prediction markets as a core future business line, rapidly closing the gap with crypto in both revenue and user engagement.
• The company is moving toward owning its full technology stack for prediction markets, aiming to offer better customer choice and integration.
• Tenev defends the place of sports markets in finance, highlighting the convergence of entertainment, economics, and traditional financial products.
• The ambitious Trump Accounts project could set a new bar for government-citizen fintech collaboration, with Robinhood at the technological and operational center.
• Tenev remains cautious yet optimistic about the company’s role amid wider industry turbulence.

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This episode offers sharp insights into Robinhood’s current strategies, future trajectories, and the evolving nature of financial service offerings in both private and public sectors.

Transcript

[Interviewer]

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[Vlad Tenev]

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[Interviewer]

Learn more at iu.edu impact

[Bloomberg Host]

Bloomberg Audio Studios Podcasts Radio News

[Interviewer]

Robinhood reported earnings recently. It showed that its revenue from its crypto segment falling, but of that is shifting to its prediction markets business. The platform saying that the annualized revenue from its event contracts were about $415 million in the first quarter, compared to crypto's implied $536 million pace. Vlad Tenev is here. He's chairman and CEO of Robinhood and he joins us now on set. Vlad, always, always good to see you. Prediction markets revenues, as I mentioned now bigger than that from stock trading. The business did not exist just a few quarters ago. When does it overtake crypto revenues?

[Vlad Tenev]

And that's a good point. It's a very for us, it's nascent as an asset class. Prediction markets really entered the mainstream in the 2024 election, which is when we launched our offering. And I think we're just at the beginnings of this, of this new asset class.

[Interviewer]

Does it become the biggest business?

[Vlad Tenev]

Well, I don't really think about it that way. So Robinhood is a financial super app. We're striving to serve all of our customers financial needs across every asset class and every financial transaction worldwide. I think there's plenty more room to run but there's also plenty of room to run in our other business lines. We have 11 lines of business generating 100 million in revenue or more per year with, with plenty more on deck.

[Interviewer]

Well, and we're going to get to more on crypto but I do want to stay with prediction markets for a second because it's kind of like what everybody is talking about right now. It's a big part of our, in fact it's a big part of Bloomberg crypto. Now. How much is sports related on the platform? Because our Bloomberg intelligence team does an analysis of Kalshi. For example, they say 80 to 90% roughly of the of the activity on Kalshi is sports related. How much of that is sports related on Robinhood?

[Vlad Tenev]

Yeah, it's a big chunk of it for sure. But we are seeing north, we're seeing non sports contracts continuing to gain share and sports is just easily understandable. Right. You're seeing prediction markets being a disruptor and an alternative to traditional sports books and there's already an established behavior there, whereas general event trading is a little bit Newer, it's harder for some customers to wrap their heads around. We do a lot to educate customers on that, but we see it growing and in fact as the product matures we see a world where actually non sports eventually overtake sports.

[Bloomberg Host]

I'm still going to stick with prediction markets. It's just interesting. So is Robinhood, you're partnering right now on infrastructure, but is the goal for Robinhood to have its own integrated prediction market exchange and clearing system?

[Vlad Tenev]

We did announce a joint venture with Susquehanna which is one of the leading market makers to launch Roth era. So we acquired Ledger X, if you're familiar, which is a long established futures DCM and dco. And that actually is going to go live this quarter. So, so for a while we've been partnering with third, third parties to provide the exchange and clearing infrastructure. But now we have a vertically integrated stack later this quarter.

[Bloomberg Host]

So what role would Kalship play in Robinhood's ecosystem once you fully launch that one?

[Vlad Tenev]

They would be an alternative exchange provider along with Forecast X. And who knows, we might also integrate with more exchanges. Really what we're looking for is how do we give customers choice and flexibility and give them the best pricing and the best access to contract selection.

[Bloomberg Host]

Any names in your list other than Kalashi that you're looking to tap?

[Vlad Tenev]

I mean, I think we've had conversations with all of the, with all of the players and I should also say on thera side, a lot of people are interested in coming to Roth there as well because they know Robinhood brings a lot of distribution, a lot of usage. So we've been hearing from, you know, folks that want to integrate with Roth ERA at launch and they see the combination of Robinhood and Sig as a very, very one to bring liquidity into the market.

[Interviewer]

You know, I've, I've spoken quite a bit about prediction markets with other CEOs. Rick Worst of Schwab, for example, they don't offer prediction markets right now and he's told me that when and if they do offer, they don't want to offer sports because he sees that as gambling and he doesn't see that as being aligned with, with the own, his own financial services and what he's doing at his firm. What would you say to critics who say, well maybe we understand prediction markets and event based contracts on the economy and certain other parts, maybe oil prices, but what we don't see sports fitting into financial services. What would you say to those critics?

[Vlad Tenev]

I mean, I think the reality of it is sports is a big part of the economy, a lot of money is spent in sports, an increasing amount. And I think in particular with the potential automation that we see happening from AI sports is one of those things that is continuing to be human. You don't really want to watch self driving cars circling a track. It's, it's less entertaining. So I think sports is actually big business and it's a critical part of the economy, much more so than even 20 years ago. When you look at these franchises catching, you know, 10 billion plus valuations, it's increasingly global. So the two worlds are starting to converge. And yeah, I think this, this new asset class is going to continue to grow and develop. And I think, you know, a lot of competitors, historically you saw this with crypto, right? They sort of dismissed the asset class. And then eventually you'll hear the, the story shifting to, okay, well, yeah, we'll, we'll offer it, but only in these ways. And then eventually the story becomes, well, you know, overwhelming demand from, from our customers and, and, and now we're offering it and we have to compete with, with, with, you know, where our customers are, are going. So I'd imagine it's the same thing. And it's, it's hard for the incumbents to build and launch new stuff. So at first, while they're trying to figure out how to build it, they tend to take on a more defensive posture. Sometimes.

[Bloomberg Host]

I wish we could talk prediction markets, but I have to ask you about Trump accounts. Can you explain briefly and maybe succinctly because we have a ton more questions. How are you working with BNY and Treasury? What exactly is Robinhood doing versus BNY versus Treasury to administer Trump accounts?

[Vlad Tenev]

Yeah, sure. So Trump accounts, for those that might not be familiar, it's a brokerage account from birth for every newborn seeded with $1,000 by the Treasury. And Robinhood was chosen in partnership with bny. Robinhood is going to be the sole initial trustee and broker for the Trump accounts, which means we're not only designing and building the Trump Accounts app, which the aspiration will be, is it's going to be the best product that the government's ever been associated with. That's what we hope for and what we're building with with the National Design Studio, but we're also the broker. So the accounts and the assets are going to be custody. Custody with us. And bny, the storied oldest bank in the US is serving as financial agent and national infrastructure manager.

[Interviewer]

Would parents be able to rollover those funds to another brokerage?

[Vlad Tenev]

Yeah, eventually there will be rollovers. So you'll be able to do the accounts to the brokerage of your choice. There's no further firm data on that. Everyone's eyes are on the July 4th launch and just making sure that the Trump Accounts app and the initial experience is just really top notch.

[Bloomberg Host]

You flagged some significant costs in relation to this program. Can you explain how the benefits outweigh the cost of this?

[Vlad Tenev]

Yeah. So there was a lot of confusion on this. I'm glad that I have a chance to address it. So we announced at earnings that there's going to be 100 million costs with developing the Trump accounts. So not all of that has been incurred already, but that's what we anticipate it will be and it will be profitable for us. So we, this is, we're serving as a government subcontractor and it's on a cost plus basis. So we're kind of billing for the costs. And really the cost comes from the fact that the US Government wants these accounts and the service to be handled really, really well by humans. Right. So we have to staff up significant servicing because, you know, there's 5.5 million children that have signed up already. There are 70 million children under the age of 18 in this country. So we've got to be ready to scale up to tens of millions of accounts relatively quickly with like top notch support and reliability.

[Interviewer]

Hey, Vlad, one more before we go. Coinbase today cutting 14% of staff. It cites volatile markets, AI PayPal, block, crypto.com, they've had layoffs. What does that say to you about the industry right now?

[Vlad Tenev]

I mean, I don't know what is going on in the internals of, of other companies. I think that is related.

[Interviewer]

Or is it crypto related?

[Vlad Tenev]

I'm not sure. Maybe it's a combination of, of both. I think the timing, of course, is notable right in the, right in the thickness of earnings season. But I can't really share more than that.

[Interviewer]

Vlad, we wish we had more time. Always love catching up with you.

[Vlad Tenev]

Always a pleasure.

[Interviewer]

Thanks so much for joining us. Vlad Tenev is chairman and CEO of Robinhood.

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