Robinhood CEO Vlad Tenev Talks Prediction Markets Growth

Summary

Podcast Summary: Bloomberg Talks

Episode: Robinhood CEO Vlad Tenev Talks Prediction Markets Growth
Date: July 30, 2026
Host: Bloomberg
Guest: Vlad Tenev, Chairman & CEO of Robinhood

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Overview

This episode features an in-depth conversation with Vlad Tenev, the Chairman and CEO of Robinhood, as he unpacks the company’s latest financial results and explores the explosive growth of their new prediction markets division. The discussion covers Robinhood’s evolving business model, diversification into numerous lines of business, and the long-term vision around products like Robinhood Chain, Trump accounts, and tokenization. Tenev also provides insights into how Robinhood is expanding its ecosystem for both retail and professional users.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Prediction Markets: Fastest Growth in Company History

[01:00–02:18]

• Background & Recent Performance:
  • Robinhood experienced a notable decline in crypto trading, but this was offset by record-breaking performance in options and especially the new prediction markets business.
  • Vlad Tenev: “Prediction markets has been growing consistently since launch. It's the fastest growing business in our history well into the mid hundreds of millions of annualized revenue.” (01:22)
• Long-Term Sustainability:
  • Growth is not just a one-off surge due to events like the World Cup; Robinhood expects it to continue, bolstered by upcoming football season and the approaching US midterm elections.
  • Tenev points to the 2024 election as a catalyst for the current “super cycle” in prediction markets.
• Diversification:
  • “Robinhood has begun to diversify... We now have 13 business lines generating over 100 million in annualized revenue, including Robinhood Legend, which is our pro trading platform, as well as the Robinhood credit card.” (01:58)

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2. Robinhood’s Approach to Business Diversification

[02:18–04:08]

• Decentralized Business Model:
  • Each of Robinhood’s 13 core business units is run by an autonomous general manager tasked with maximizing their segment’s performance.
  • Vlad Tenev: “Our goal is to be number one in all categories that we offer products to customers. And in fact there's a flywheel in effect... We get more customers, those customers bring more assets onto the platform and they become gold subscribers..." (02:36–03:10)
• Platform "Flywheel":
  • Product ecosystem enables users to deploy assets across retirement, card products, and high-yield products, driving cross-utilization and organic growth.
  • Advisors are brought onto the platform, enhancing customer guidance and further fueling the growth flywheel.

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3. The Trump Accounts Initiative

[04:08–05:34]

• Massive Uptake at Launch:
  • 7 million children have recently been signed up for Robinhood’s “Trump accounts” since their launch on July 4th, described as potentially the most successful program launch in government history.
• Philanthropic and Employer Engagement:
  • Employers, including Robinhood itself, are contributing to employees' Trump accounts. The platform is targeting the full addressable market of roughly 70 million eligible children.
• Long-Term Strategy:
  • Accounts roll into traditional retirement plans once children turn 18; viewed as a powerful, long-term customer acquisition (and retention) strategy.
  • Vlad Tenev: “We believe it's probably the most important thing we could be doing for the future of the country.” (05:26)

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4. Robinhood Chain & the Future of Tokenized Assets

[05:34–07:03]

• Beyond Crypto Trading:
  • Despite a down quarter for crypto trading, Robinhood is leaning into blockchain as an infrastructure for tokenizing real-world assets.
  • Vlad Tenev: “Our view is that the future of crypto is that it becomes the infrastructure layer among trading all kinds of assets, including real world assets... Even though we're fans of memes, we also like real world assets.” (05:53–06:21)
• Global Access & New Products:
  • Robinhood’s “stock tokens” are now available in 120+ countries.
  • Stablecoin lending product (“up to 7% APY”) amassed $200 million in balances just weeks after launch.
• Revenue Streams:
  • The chain business is diversifying, with revenue now coming from lending, asset management, and sequencer operations, making it less dependent on crypto price volatility.

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On prediction markets growth:

  “Prediction markets has been growing consistently since launch. It's the fastest growing business in our history well into the mid hundreds of millions of annualized revenue.” (Vlad Tenev, 01:22)

• On Robinhood’s business model:

  “Our goal is to be number one in all categories that we offer products to customers. And in fact there's a flywheel in effect...” (Vlad Tenev, 02:36)

• On the long-term impact of Trump accounts:

  “We believe it's probably the most important thing we could be doing for the future of the country.” (Vlad Tenev, 05:26)

• On the strategic vision for Robinhood Chain:

  “Our view is that the future of crypto is that it becomes the infrastructure layer among trading all kinds of assets, including real world assets. Even though we're fans of memes, we also like real world assets.” (Vlad Tenev, 05:53–06:21)

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Important Timestamps

• 01:00–02:18: Prediction markets business performance and strategic context
• 02:18–04:08: Robinhood's diversified business model and product flywheel
• 04:08–05:34: Growth and long-term vision for Trump accounts
• 05:34–07:03: Robinhood Chain, tokenized assets, and future of crypto on the platform

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Tone & Language

The conversation is upbeat, forward-looking, and candid. Vlad Tenev provides clear, confident explanations of Robinhood’s innovations and business strategies, highlighting data and milestones while underscoring the company’s ambition to lead in multiple financial verticals.

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Useful For: Anyone interested in fintech innovation, new financial products, Robinhood’s strategic direction, and the future of retail investing and prediction markets.

Transcript

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[Interviewer]

a look at shares of Robinhood slightly lower on the day the fintech platform seen a year over year decline in crypto trading volume offset by record results in its options and prediction markets business. You put it all together, you still had a clean beat on both the top and the bottom lines, but a lot of questions about growth going forward. Who better to pose those questions to than the chairman and CEO and co founder of Robinhood? Vlad10 Great to see you Vlad.

[Vlad Tenev]

Pleasure to meet.

[Interviewer]

The numbers are decent. I mean let's ignore for example the 1 1/2% drop you're seeing in the shares here. I want to talk about growth and where the next leg of growth comes. You had a huge bump up in growth in the prediction markets business. I understand it's a new business so obviously the growth would be there. Was that just sort of one off in terms of the growth because of the World cup and all the other things that have been going on in the world, or is that sustainable?

[Vlad Tenev]

Prediction markets has been growing consistently since launch. It's the fastest growing business in our history well into the mid hundreds of millions of annualized revenue. So that that's been strong and we expect it to continue to be strong. We have football season on the sports side coming up as well as the midterms, which if you remember the origin of prediction markets in this current super cycle, it really started with the 2024 election. So we're expecting that this election is similarly going to be a big event. But you know, also one of the stories of the quarter Robinhood has begun, has begun to diversify. That's accelerated over time. We now have 13 business lines generating over 100 million in annualized revenue, including Robinhood Legend, which is our pro trading platform, as well as the Robinhood credit card.

[Interviewer]

That's what I'm curious about. I mean, because yes it is incredibly diversified now, but when we look at certain growth, I mean some people are wondering does the prediction market become sort of one of the bigger parts of this business over time or is your goal to try to keep at least some of the main components of those 13 lines relatively imbalanced?

[Vlad Tenev]

Yeah, the way we do our business planning is we have general managers that are running, running relatively autonomous business units and they're giving them a lot of freedom to just, well, they're, they're gold. To make their businesses as big as possible and win in market share across each of these. So our goal is to be number one in all categories that we offer products to customers. And in fact there's, there's a flywheel in effect and it's, it's actually continuing to expand. It's. We get more customers, those customers bring more assets onto the platform and they become gold subscribers. They use more of our products, which gives them an opportunity to deploy their assets across all sorts of different areas. Retirement they can spend with our, with our card products, they can earn a high rate, including on our FDIC insured deposits deposit sweep. Also our Robinhood earn crypto backed product which offers 7% API. That's been growing really quickly. So we have all these things that we enable you to put your money to work and then those in turn bring in more customers. And now we also have advisors. So we have advisors joining the network. You can get a human advisor on Robinhood to help give you even more personalized guidance. The more advisors we bring on, that in turn feeds the flywheel and, and over time increases the number of customers.

[Interviewer/Host]

Well, speaking of customers, you have now 7 million children about signing up for these Trump accounts. When do you anticipate that actually translates to more regular Robinhood users? I mean, not the baby that just got the account, but maybe their family members, a parent here. When does that actually contribute to more users?

[Vlad Tenev]

Yeah, well, remember, you know, the Trump accounts just launched earlier this month on July 4th, and it's been. Secretary Bessen called it the most successful program launch in government history. And what happens is give it. Given the tremendous success of the program, there's more and more things to build. We're growing it bigger and bigger. Donors are coming up. So I think this can become the default philanthropic donor solution. And we can collect all the donors which bring in more assets to the platform because it gives a direct option for charitable giving. We're getting the employers on board. A lot of employers, including Robinhood and many other companies are giving to the Trump accounts of their employees who are having children. And over time, we expect to go from 7 million children signed up to closer to the 70 million in the addressable market. And you know, as, as the kids grow, when they turn 18, these roll over into traditional retirement accounts. So it's a long term play. Yeah, but yeah, we believe it's, it's probably the most important thing we could be doing for, for the future of the country.

[Interviewer]

I do want to ask about one of your other lines of business, the Robinhood chain. I mean, we said in the intro the crypto business was down in the most recent quarter. You're building out a business that's effectively kind of built on the back of sort of a, you know, crypto technology. Is this sort of a play towards not just crypto long term, but tokenization? Give me some sense here as to what you actually want this business to be.

[Vlad Tenev]

Yeah, so tokenization is one of the areas that we're a leader in. And the idea is when you say crypto is down, really a lot of that is just talking about the trading of crypto assets. But our view is that the future of crypto is that it becomes the infrastructure layer among trading all kinds of assets, including real world assets. You know, even though we're fans of memes, we also like real world assets.

[Interviewer]

Yeah.

[Vlad Tenev]

And so what we've done is tokenize stocks, put them on chain through our stock tokens product and we're making them available to over 120 countries around the world. We also have a stablecoin lending product which allows customers to earn 7% API and that's up to 200 million in balances in just a short number of weeks. And so even the crypto business line, if you look at it, is diversifying. There's now lending revenue, there's assets revenue, there's chain sequencer revenue from Robinhood chain. So you'll see that get more diversified and less reliant on the day to day price price of Bitcoin, for example.

[Interviewer/Host]

The market volatility. Yeah, absolutely, because it's happening. Vlad Tenev, great to see you. Thanks for joining us.

[Vlad Tenev]

A pleasure to be here in person. Thank you.

[Interviewer/Host]

That's Vlad Tenev, Chairman and CEO of Robinhood.

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