Bloomberg Talks: Senior Advisor and Commodities Strategist at Hartree Partners Ed Morse Talks Commodities
Date: January 5, 2026
Host: Paul Sweeney & Nathan Hager (Bloomberg)
Guest: Dr. Edward Morse, Senior Advisor and Commodities Strategist, Hartree Partners
Overview
This special Bloomberg episode features a comprehensive interview with Dr. Edward Morse, renowned commodities strategist, discussing the shifting global oil landscape, with a spotlight on recent dramatic changes in Venezuela, their geopolitical ripple effects, and implications for the energy market and US policy. The conversation threads together the fate of Venezuela’s oil sector, global power plays (with the US, China, and the Middle East), market risks, the evolving role of OPEC, and thoughts on “energy dominance” in the context of the Biden and Trump presidencies.
Key Discussion Points & Insights
1. Venezuela’s Turbulent Oil Reawakening
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Long Road to Recovery
- Morse emphasizes that Venezuela’s path to restoring its oil production is "very, very long," requiring not just technical fixes to the oil sector but fundamental political and institutional change.
- He notes the necessity for a dramatic cultural and operational shift in the government to foster cooperation and attract investment.
- Quote: "They can't do that and have the oil patch resume what it was like 25 years ago." — Morse [01:15]
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Enormous Investment and Risk Calculus
- Oil companies will only invest if political and operational risks are well managed; initial forays (e.g., Chevron’s possible role) will be small and "trust-building."
- Venezuela needs about $20 billion to merely increase output by 400,000–500,000 barrels a day.
- Quote: "That's $20 billion. $20 billion is not nothing when oil companies have opportunities in...Guyana, Argentina, Brazil, and Africa." — Morse [02:09]
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Human Resources and Institutional Collapse
- Venezuela’s petroleum sector lacks not just infrastructure but also experienced professionals who previously managed production.
- Quote: "They don't have the human resources, they don't have the personnel to be able to guide it." — Morse [04:12]
2. US Strategy, Trump, and Transactional Diplomacy
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Transactional Approach and Energy Investment
- Dr. Morse paints Trump’s relationship with financiers as good, but stresses that energy investment in Venezuela requires more than US policy assurances—it needs "reassurance from the Venezuelan side."
- First steps will likely involve Chevron as a test case [03:31].
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Briefing the President
- Morse proposes telling President Trump that energy dominance can’t be achieved without embracing renewable energy and hydrogen, due to increasing electricity demand and technological shifts (AI, cloud computing).
- He highlights the US's fragmented energy landscape and criticizes the Jones Act for hampering internal energy trade.
- Quote: “Your policy on energy dominance is a wonderful strategy. But...you can't do the electricity intensity you need for AI and cloud computing...without renewables...even without hydrogen. So you've got to enlarge what you think about energy dominance.” — Morse [10:52]
3. Geopolitics: China, OPEC, the Middle East
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China’s Venezuelan Gamble
- China, as Venezuela’s main creditor, is in a bind: its Belt and Road investment is underperforming, and repayment now depends on tightly US-controlled Venezuelan oil exports.
- China opts for quiet diplomacy; it publicly condemns the US, but Morse expects backchannel negotiations due to wider US-China stakes (e.g., tariffs).
- Quote: “They had to do that. But they have to take a quiet approach because there's so much at stake between them and the US on a global basis.” — Morse [07:04]
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Showing the Flag in Taiwan & Military Posture
- US military signaling happened ahead of Maduro’s displacement (major arms sale to Taiwan, naval presence in the region).
- China is not positioned to escalate given the US military build-up and overlapping vulnerabilities.
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Saudi Arabia and OPEC+
- Saudis respond quietly, see Venezuela as no immediate threat to OPEC+ cohesion, but the Middle East is focused on broader uncertainties (Russia-Ukraine, disruptions).
- Saudi budget priorities and borrowing strategies may be impacted by the new oil price realities.
- Morse forecasts testing Brent crude near $40/bbl, a level the Saudis can endure short term but perhaps not much lower.
- Quote: “Testing Brent at 40 is something the Saudis can swallow. How much lower than that they can swallow, it is not known.” — Morse [10:21]
4. Market Structure & Energy Dominance
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Cautious Optimism Among Energy Companies
- Companies see opportunity in Venezuela but are highly risk-averse given political instability; there will be no rush to invest until investment rules clarify.
- Quote: “They see a better opportunity than they've seen in years, but they are apprehensive.” — Morse [13:08]
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US as Disruptor; OPEC’s Waning Relevance
- OPEC+ is becoming less relevant as new players rise (Guyana, Brazil, Argentina) and the US surges as a “massive liquids producer.”
- US growth is driven by natural gas liquids, which now compete with oil at the refinery level for a wide variety of end uses.
- Quote: “We are the disruptor of the global market and we are the ones who put OPEC in a position of defense.” — Morse [14:03]
5. Latin American Political Dynamics
- Changing Political Tide
- Morse views Latin America as rebelling against corruption across the political spectrum and entering a better era, in part due to tough lessons from Chinese over-lending and the necessity of repaying all credit.
- Quote: “I think Latin America is in a very good position now, better position than it's been in a long time.” — Morse [16:35]
Memorable Quotes & Moments (with Timestamps)
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On rebuilding Venezuela:
"The timeline is very, very long...They can't do that and have the oil patch resume what it was like 25 years ago." — Morse [01:15] -
On investment risks:
"Oil companies look at risk. They look at the risk in the marketplace...In the case of Venezuela, they need a lot of capital going into infrastructure." — Morse [02:09] -
On Chevron’s role and trust-building:
"I suspect the first step will be with Chevron to see whether they can make good in short term input of capital with short term return." — Morse [03:31] -
On global market disruption:
"We are the disruptor of the global market and we are the ones who put OPEC in a position of defense." — Morse [14:03] -
On US energy dominance:
"You can't do the electricity intensity you need for AI and cloud computing...without renewables...even without hydrogen. So you've got to enlarge what you think about energy dominance." — Morse [10:52] -
On China’s Belt and Road setback:
"They [China] have between 50 and 100 billion of debt. Their operations right now are to export oil to pay for that debt. The US controls their exports out of Venezuela." — Morse [07:04] -
On the romance of the oil age:
"I don't know how we do that. I know that I'm not going to bring the romance back. And Dan Jurgen certainly has the ability to do it." — Morse [15:43]
Timestamps for Key Segments
- Venezuela’s Recovery Timeline — [01:15]
- Capital Needs and Investment Risk — [02:09]
- Rebuilding Human Resources in Venezuela — [04:12]
- Changing Maduro: Political Shift — [05:45]
- China’s Position and Belt & Road — [07:04]
- US Military Posturing — [08:23]
- Saudi/OPEC+ Response & Oil Price Outlook — [09:12], [10:07]
- US Energy Policy & Fragmentation — [10:52]
- Energy Companies’ Reaction to Venezuela News — [13:08]
- OPEC’s Declining Relevance; US as the Disruptor — [14:03]
- Latin America’s Political Change — [16:35]
Conclusion
Edward Morse’s interview offers a sobering yet nuanced look at the fate of Venezuelan oil, the calculated caution of global energy actors, and shifting geopolitical chess moves. He underscores the slow nature of institutional change, the complex interplay between domestic policy and international ambitions, and the fluidity of global energy markets increasingly shaped by non-OPEC actors and technological transition.
For listeners seeking broad context on commodities and the politics underpinning global oil, this conversation with Ed Morse is essential, weaving hard analysis with historical perspective and policy recommendations.