Thoma Bravo Co-Founder Orlando Bravo Talks Mega IPOs, SaaSpocalypse

Summary

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Podcast Summary: Bloomberg Talks – Thoma Bravo Co-Founder Orlando Bravo Talks Mega IPOs, SaaSpocalypse

Date: June 10, 2026
Host: John (Bloomberg)
Interviewer: Dani Burger
Guest: Orlando Bravo (Co-Founder, Thoma Bravo)

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Episode Overview

This episode features a candid conversation with Orlando Bravo, Co-Founder of leading private equity firm Thoma Bravo, at the Super Return conference in Berlin. The discussion centers on the state of the software and SaaS sector, dubbed the “SaaSpocalypse,” ongoing dynamics in private equity dealmaking, the shifting IPO landscape (including massive upcoming debuts from SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic), and broader industry lessons for investors and company operators.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. State of the 'SaaSpocalypse'

[00:53–02:00]

• Dani Burger opens with the pressing question: Is the "SaaSpocalypse" over or just entering a new phase?
• Orlando Bravo immediately pushes back on the term, calling it “a terrible term,” and confidently states:

  “SaaS apocalypse for whatever term. And that's a terrible term, by the way. I really don't like that term. It is finished, no more.” (01:12)

• He highlights that SaaS companies are dynamic and continue to evolve, particularly with advancements in AI (“Agentic”), and that company fundamentals and market sentiment are improving.

  “SaaS and Agentic are going to merge very, very, very quickly. And these companies are the future of agents in the enterprise. And the market is realizing that as well.” (01:37)

2. The Private Equity Landscape and AI

[02:07–02:44]

• Bravo notes that private equity deal activity remains slow and “stuck,” with investors wanting more evidence of AI integration in enterprise solutions before committing capital.
• He positions private equity as “the voice of reason,” emphasizing a cautious approach to investing:

  “If you're going to buy a technology company...you really want to see that they're making a lot of progress around their AI offerings...enough time has passed that you should see that in the business because that's where the whole world is going to evolve to.” (02:16)

3. Market Sentiment & Public vs. Private Dynamics

[02:44–03:34]

• Bravo distinguishes between public and private market reactions. The “freak out” was primarily in public markets, with a pronounced rebound in software stocks since April.
• Notably, cybersecurity—a sector where Thoma Bravo invests 50% of its dollars—has enjoyed “a huge tailwind” and strong rebound:

  “A big place where you saw the freak out...be completely over is where we invest 50% of our dollars in cyber. This is a huge tailwind to cyber.” (03:22)

4. Lending & Valuations in Private Markets

[03:34–04:28]

• Lending remains challenging; capital for software companies is less popular among large asset managers, making financing tighter:

  “Lending is very difficult...it is a much tighter environment now on the buy side, of course that hurts you with financing, but it means you pay a lot less.” (03:45)

• Thoma Bravo benefits as value investors in such down markets, “enjoying this opportunity” but still proceeding cautiously.

5. The Impact of Mega IPOs (SpaceX, OpenAI, Anthropic)

[04:28–05:46]

• The upcoming IPOs of industry giants like SpaceX and OpenAI are both a boon and a challenge. They may revitalize capital flow but could also monopolize investor attention and capital, crowding out smaller companies:

  “All the attention and all the time, let alone the dollars are going to be focused on these massive historic IPOs. So these smaller caps...are much more difficult to get the attention in the short term.” (05:17)

• Bravo expresses hope that if these mega-IPOs perform well, they could boost overall confidence in the IPO market.

6. Timeline for Smaller IPOs to Return

[05:46–06:27]

• When asked about when regular IPO activity might resume after these mega events, Bravo estimates:

  “Hopefully nine months, a year after now that's a guess, right? So many things are up in the air.” (05:57)

• He stresses the importance of staying focused on core competency despite market noise:

  “The toughest thing for people that have a core competency in something is to stay the course.” (06:14)

7. Lessons Learned in Software Private Equity

[06:27–07:25]

• Reflecting on past industry mistakes, Bravo says that troubled software investments are less about AI disruption and more about mismanagement and short-term strategies:

  “People thought 10 years ago...that it was really easy. I buy subscription revenue, 90% gross margin, I cut some cost and I'm good to go. They forgot to innovate and...invest in R&D...that's coming back to create some flatness in the environment.” (06:51)

• The importance of innovation, R&D, and domain knowledge is highlighted as key takeaways.
• When asked about job losses due to AI, Bravo projects optimism, stating:

  “Yeah, the great use case for AI is we're hiring a lot more developers.” (07:28)

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Memorable Quotes & Moments

• Orlando Bravo on the “SaaSpocalypse”:

  “It is finished, no more.” (01:14)

• On the merger of SaaS and “Agentic” AI:

  “SaaS and Agentic are going to merge very, very, very quickly. And these companies are the future of agents in the enterprise.” (01:37)

• On private market dynamics:

  “Private equity is the voice of reason in a lot of this...Why not wait a little longer before you pull the trigger and have a little bit more clarity?” (02:16)

• On mega IPOs:

  “All the attention and all the time, let alone the dollars are going to be focused on these massive historic IPOs.” (05:17)

• On industry lessons:

  “They forgot to innovate and they forgot to invest in R & D and they forgot the domain knowledge of existing management by replacing them. And that's coming back to create some flatness in the environment which is very difficult." (07:01)

• On jobs and AI:

  “Yeah, the great use case for AI is we're hiring a lot more developers.” (07:28)

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Important Timestamps

• [00:53]: Introduction to the “SaaSpocalypse” discussion
• [01:12]: Bravo declares the SaaSpocalypse over
• [02:07]: Private equity investment mindset on AI
• [03:22]: Cybersecurity sector rebound
• [05:17]: Impact of mega IPOs on the market
• [05:57]: Timeline expectations for regular IPO resumption
• [07:01]: Industry lessons and innovation imperative
• [07:28]: AI’s impact on developer hiring

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Tone and Takeaways

Orlando Bravo’s tone is direct but optimistic, cutting through hype with pragmatic assessments. He acknowledges industry challenges—slow deal activity, tighter financing, and increased competition for capital—but maintains confidence in the resilience of dynamic, innovative SaaS companies. Above all, he underscores the perennial need for companies and investors to adapt, innovate, and “stay the course” amidst cycles of disruption and opportunity.

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This summary captures the substantive content and flavor of the conversation, distilling Bravo’s insights and Dani Burger’s probing questions for listeners seeking key takeaways from this industry-leading private equity perspective.

Transcript

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[Host John]

news Private market dealmakers Gathering at the annual Super Return conference over in Germany. Dani Burger focused on many of these issues. She jo us now from Berlin. Hey, Danny.

[Interviewer Danny Burger]

Hey, John. That's correct. And there's one issue I want to focus in on particular, and it is the state of software and private equity. And we have the leading voice to talk about that. It is Orlando Bravo, the co founder of Thoma Bravo Lando. Always a pleasure to see you here, Danny.

[Orlando Bravo]

So good to see you. This is our yearly tradition.

[Interviewer Danny Burger]

It is our yearly. I would be gutted if we didn't meet same place, same time.

[Orlando Bravo]

Every one of the reasons I come here is to do this, okay?

[Interviewer Danny Burger]

Hopefully among the top. And I know this year you have a particular message. I remember earlier this year you were talking at so and saying the SaaS apocalypse, the worst is over. Does it go further in your mind, just the worst being over? But is this thing over, Orlando? Where are we in the world of the SAS pocket, Danny?

[Orlando Bravo]

SASS apocalypse for whatever term. And that's a terrible term, by the way. I really don't like that term. It is finished, no more. And it's pretty simple. You know, people are realizing that these are unbelievable companies. And you look at the numbers coming out even after the first quarter. And secondly, and more importantly, people are realizing that SaaS companies just don't stay still. They're not static. They evolve with infrastructure, they evolve with opportunity. And SaaS and Agentic are going to merge very, very, very quickly. And these companies are the future of agents in the enterprise. And the market is realizing that as well.

[Interviewer Danny Burger]

So the freakout is over, essentially. Is that what you're saying in private markets? Is this stuff starting to be realized? Your portfolio, maybe some of your peers at the valuations that you think they should have? Or is there still some frozen assets, some stickiness that has yet to come unglued?

[Orlando Bravo]

Private equity, the environment is pretty stuck right now. Now, I do think that private equity is the voice of reason in a lot of this because it makes sense that deal activity is a lot slower because if you're going to buy a technology company or a software company, a solution provider to the enterprise, now, you really want to see that they're making a lot of progress around their AI offerings, enough time has passed that you should see that in the business because that's where the whole world is going to evolve to. So why not wa wait a little longer before you pull the trigger and have a little bit more clarity? That makes sense to me.

[Interviewer Danny Burger]

It doesn't sound like the worst is over Orlando. It seems like there's still things that need to be tested and figured out. So what is the aspect? Is it just. Are you saying our companies are healthy or is there something else that the worst of the freak out is truly over?

[Orlando Bravo]

Well, the freak out really happened in the public markets. True. Right. And you've seen since April, software stocks have rebounded really, really strongly. But the other thing that you notice, and this is really about public investor sentiment, is that whenever there's an announce about one of the great lens coming out with an amazing model like today, the whole software industry doesn't collapse or react to it. A big place where you saw the freak out, as you called it, be completely over is where we invest 50% of our dollars in cyber. This is a huge tailwind to cyber and that's one of the sectors that has rebounded really strongly over the past month.

[Interviewer Danny Burger]

What about in lending? What are conversations with your lenders like? Is the. I remember we had had a conversation saying the cost of capital has gotten a little bit higher because of concerns. Has that come back? There's still difficult conversations to be had.

[Orlando Bravo]

Lending is very difficult because, and I'm going to be completely upfront about this, there are many large asset managers that need to raise so much money monthly and from retail and it's not the most popular thing right now to pile that money into software. So it is a much tighter environment now on the buy side, of course that hurts you with financing, but it means you pay a lot less. And funds like ours, we do a lot better in down markets than in up markets because we're value investors. So we're really enjoying this opportunity. But once again, we're treading carefully because we want to buy companies that are part of the future, not companies that are stuck in the past.

[Interviewer Danny Burger]

By the way, Thoma Bravo, more than most companies has been very successful with exits. You've also had some really successful IPOs too. We're going to get space X this week we learned that OpenAI is going to be coming to market Anthropic also filed for an ipo. Is this good or bad for the IPO environment and prospect of exits? Because. Because for one thing, it starts the capital flowing. But there's also this question. Is it all just being funneled. Are these just black holes of capital if you're competing for the same institutional money?

[Orlando Bravo]

Exactly. Both points are so true. I was talking to my partner, Seth Borough about this. He's in charge of a lot of companies along with Holden Spade that look like they're great IPO candidates in the $25 billion $30 billion valuation range based on about $1 billion of free cash flow and their growth rates, and both of them last year. We won't be able to do anything this year because all the attention and all the time, let alone the dollars are going to be focused on these massive historic IPOs. So these smaller caps, which we are now, I guess, are much more difficult to get the attention in the short term. Now medium term. I really hope they do well because they're really important moments for capital markets and their depth. And if they do well, you'll get more confidence in the IPO market.

[Interviewer Danny Burger]

Well, what is a typical period for that? I know Space X is. We don't really have a historical corollary because it's just so large in size, but what would be your estimation of when you can enter back into the IPO market after these come in?

[Orlando Bravo]

Hopefully nine months, a year after now that's a guess, right? So many things are up in the air. What happens with interest rates? What happens with valuations? Is there a slowdown in the infrastructure build? There's so many questions, right? It's a wild investing environment. People are saying a lot of strange things in investing right now. And the toughest thing for people that have a core competency in something is to stay the course. And of course, once again, you have to be part of the future, but you have to stick with what you know really well.

[Interviewer Danny Burger]

Remember, you and I last year had had this discussion that this industry had lost its way. Do you think people have had that come to Jesus moment? Have they kind of come around or are there still lessons to be learned?

[Orlando Bravo]

Do you think they're having it now? Look, if you see some of the software troubled credits, which there are, it's out there. It's not yet a product of AI having impacted those companies or those companies failing to transition to the new platform, which by the way, is the biggest opportun in the software industry. It really, really, really is. It's an issue of how those companies were run. People thought 10 years ago, after they saw all this money being made in private equity and software, that it was really easy. I buy subscription revenue, 90% gross margin, I cut some cost and I'M good to go. They forgot to innovate and they forgot to invest in R and D and they forgot the domain knowledge of existing management by replacing them. And that's coming back to create some flatness in the environment which is very difficult for those businesses.

[Interviewer Danny Burger]

By the way, any huge calls of how are going to be losing their jobs?

[Orlando Bravo]

Look at this, look at this conference. As you know, I'm an optimist but what we're seeing in development, yeah, the great use case for AI is we're hiring a lot more developers.

[Interviewer Danny Burger]

Lando, so great to see you. Thank you so much for joining. Always a pleasure.

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