Bloomberg Talks: United Airlines CEO Talks Travel Demand

Date: October 16, 2025
Host: Lisa (Bloomberg)
Guest: Scott Kirby, CEO of United Airlines

Episode Overview

This episode features a conversation between Bloomberg’s Lisa and Scott Kirby, CEO of United Airlines, focusing on the current state of travel demand, United's resilience amid economic volatility, shifting booking behaviors, fare trends, capacity management, and operational strategies. Kirby also shares perspective on wage pressures, investments in technology, and the broader economic outlook, making the discussion especially relevant for those interested in aviation, corporate travel, and the post-pandemic economy.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. United’s Performance and Demand Acceleration

• Kirby highlights United’s strong performance throughout a volatile year, with particular excitement about the fourth quarter:
  • “The first three quarters were really good for United in a lot of macro volatility that happened for the aviation industry.”
    (Scott Kirby, 00:40)
  • The company’s “resilient,” “brand loyal business model” allowed for stability and upside even in turbulent times (00:40).
• United expects full-year earnings growth despite economic headwinds.

2. Airlines as Economic Indicators and Shifts in Demand

• Airlines provide a “real time indicator of the economy” (01:40).
  • In the first half of the year, economic stress led to lower ticket prices and softer bookings, but momentum grew in Q3.
  • “We’ve set records each of the last several weeks on most corporate revenue that we’ve ever booked in a single week.”
    (Kirby, 01:40)
• Corporate and particularly business travel rebounded strongly, with international travel and premium cabins outperforming the rest of the business (01:40–02:29).

3. International Travel Recovery

• While international inbound traffic to the U.S. dipped earlier, it is “close to last year’s level” and trending towards normalization:
  • “We did see a dip, but even that has come back and we think that’s on the trend to getting back to normal pretty soon.”
    (Kirby, 02:47)

4. Capacity Planning and Seasonality Adjustments

• United continues to grow at an unprecedented pace, but substantial changes to overall capacity are unlikely.
  • Instead, United will “reshape the seasonality of the year,” reducing overly high peak flying in Q3 and spreading demand and capacity more evenly across the year (03:22–04:19).
  • This shift benefits both margin and operational efficiency, reducing the need to ramp up staffing and resources for only 6 peak weeks (04:19).

5. Fare Pricing and Consumer Absorption

• 2024 saw lower ticket prices due to broader economic uncertainty, but Kirby expects fares to “normalize” and rise at the pace of inflation over time:
  • “I think…over time…you should expect to see airfares grow consistent with inflation.”
    (Kirby, 04:34)

6. Staff Wages, Cost Control, and Investment

• United is committed to maintaining industry-leading contracts for employees:
  • “Our people are the best in the world, and they deserve industry leading contracts.”
    (Kirby, 05:06)
• Cost increases are being managed through technology and operational efficiency, not at the expense of customer service:
  • “We’re driving our costs lower, not by taking things away from the customer, but by actually investing in technology that lets us run a better operation for the customer and is lower cost at the same time.”
    (Kirby, 05:06)
• Over $1 billion annually is being invested in customer experience and employee compensation.

7. The Economic Outlook & Macro Risks

• Kirby provides a balanced view on economic optimism and uncertainty:
  • “Uncertainty really is, I think, what drives the economy in one direction or another.”
    (Kirby, 06:38)
• He cites improvements in the macro environment (legislation, geopolitical issues, tariffs) that have bolstered confidence and demand (06:38).
• Ongoing risks include the potential impact of a government shutdown, but so far, airline operations and bookings have not been severely affected.
• Special praise for the FAA and air traffic controllers’ professionalism:
  • “The controllers are professionals, view their job as safety, view their job as taking care of the public and kudos to them.”
    (Kirby, 06:38)
• Emphasizes that while the economy is “better than most people think, but it’s still tenuous. It’s still a little balanced on a knife edge.”
  (Kirby, 07:47)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On United’s Resilience:
  “We’re going to be able to grow earnings for the full year even in this environment.”
  (Kirby, 00:40)

• On Recovery of Corporate Travel:
  “We’ve set records each of the last several weeks on most corporate revenue that we’ve ever booked in a single week.”
  (Kirby, 01:40)

• On Shifting Seasonality:
  “Next year we’re going to actually try to reshape our schedule some to lower the peak and let the demand spread across more of the year.”
  (Kirby, 04:19)

• On Employee Value:
  “Our people are the best in the world and they deserve industry leading contracts.”
  (Kirby, 05:06)

• Economic Outlook:
  “The economy is better than most people think, but it’s still tenuous. It’s still a little balanced on a knife edge and we shouldn’t have, you know, unforced errors. So let’s get the shutdown settled.”
  (Kirby, 07:47)

Timestamps for Important Segments

• Demand acceleration and Q4 optimism: 00:22–01:20
• Economic pressures and booking trends: 01:20–02:29
• International travel recovery: 02:29–03:09
• Capacity strategy and seasonality: 03:09–04:19
• Pricing and fare normalization: 04:19–04:55
• Wage and cost management: 04:55–06:12
• Macro risks and economic balance: 06:12–07:56

Tone and Language

Throughout the interview, Kirby is upbeat yet pragmatic, openly discussing challenges while focusing on resilience, technological investment, and operational strategy. He credits both United’s employees and industry partners, maintains a customer-centric perspective, and offers a nuanced take on economic signals.

This episode delivers an insider CEO’s view on the airline industry’s resilience, forward-looking operational shifts, and the pulse of the broader economy.