Bloomberg Talks: Robert Kaplan on Monetary Policy, Geopolitical Risk, and the AI Boom

Podcast: Bloomberg Talks
Date: March 26, 2026
Featured Guest: Robert Kaplan, Vice Chairman at Goldman Sachs, Former President of the Dallas Fed
Hosts: Tom Keene & Paul Sweeney

Episode Overview

This episode features an in-depth conversation with Robert Kaplan, vice chairman at Goldman Sachs and former Dallas Fed president. Kaplan discusses the state of monetary policy amidst heightened geopolitical risk, notably due to unrest in the Middle East, and offers insights into economic growth, labor market mismatches, the AI and data center boom, M&A trends, and rising concerns in private credit. The hosts also touch briefly on Kaplan’s ties to Kansas City and the Royals before focusing on the impact of AI and private credit risks on both corporate strategy and the broader financial system.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Baseball, Kansas City, and Labor Negotiations (00:37–02:46)

• Kansas City Roots and Royals Ownership
  • Kaplan grew up in Prairie Village, Kansas—not Brooklyn as speculated by Keene.
  • He is part-owner of the Kansas City Royals with John Sherman:

    "Royals are going to be... I'm a little biased. Royals are going to be good this year." (Robert Kaplan, 01:23)

• MLB Salary Disparities
  • Small-market teams like the Royals struggle with payroll inequity.
  • Kaplan advocates for a “balancing salary cap” to create fairer competition:

    "The sport really, really needs to create more competitiveness." (Robert Kaplan, 01:23)

• Optimism for Constructive Labor Negotiations
  • Despite rumors of a work stoppage, Kaplan is hopeful:

    "It's clear the sport needs to deal with the disparity." (Robert Kaplan, 01:59)

2. State of U.S. Economy & Monetary Policy (02:48–04:10)

• Fed’s Recent Policy Decisions
  • Kaplan notes the Fed’s “wait and see” stance in response to global uncertainty post-Middle East escalation:

    "They’re going to need to step back... The market is sort of backed off also and is pricing in basically, no, no cuts this year." (Robert Kaplan, 03:09)

• 2026 Economic Growth Drivers
  • AI/data center investments, tax incentives, and regulatory reforms support a strong outlook.
  • Geopolitical factors introduce new headwinds, notably via higher energy prices.

3. Corporate Strategy Amid AI & Geopolitics (04:10–05:32)

• C-Suite Reactions
  • Executives remain proactive—AI capex boom and productivity improvements are front-and-center.
  • Mergers and scaling remain priorities, even amid uncertainty:

    "Many are concluding that... they're better off getting more size and scale and merging. So that's not slowing down at all." (Robert Kaplan, 04:10)

• Growth Dampened by Uncertainty
  • Businesses cautious on hiring and expenditures but aggressively pursue AI adoption and M&A.

4. Labor Market Mismatches & Education Reform (05:03–06:44)

• Persistent Skill Mismatches
  • High demand (and high pay) for technicians, installers, and tradespeople; college grads struggling for appropriate roles.
  • Education’s misalignment with evolving labor market:

    "I've never seen more open jobs: window installers, technicians, plumbers... can't find them. So these mismatches have to be worked through." (Robert Kaplan, 05:32)

• Need for Educational Innovation
  • Anticipates colleges offering practical skill tracks alongside traditional degrees:

    "Wouldn’t shock me if 15 years from now a state college offers a skill training option." (Robert Kaplan, 06:14)

5. M&A Environment Under Trump’s Second Term (06:49–07:19)

• Regulatory Attitude Favors M&A
  • Boards perceive a supportive window for consolidation, fueling merger activity:

    "Companies are more confident that if they want to do a merger that they’ll be able to get it done..." (Robert Kaplan, 07:03)

6. Private Credit Risks and Systemic Concerns (07:19–10:44)

• Liquidity, Leverage, and 'Crisis Before the Crisis'
  • Tremendous growth post-GFC, but portfolio liquidity mismatches are a concern.
  • Kaplan highlights risk of a rush to exit in portfolios offering quarterly liquidity:

    "This is the crisis before the crisis... If we have a credit cycle then you’re going to see more issues in private credit." (Robert Kaplan, 07:38)

• Operational vs. Financial Risk
  • "If operational risk is high, be careful about the financial risk."
  • Rising interest rates, AI disruption elevate operational risk—companies must be wary of high leverage:

    "It is [over-leveraged] if there’s a risk that your EBITDA might drop 30% because of new innovation. That’s the issue." (Robert Kaplan, 10:29)

7. Message to Goldman Sachs Bankers (10:44–11:25)

• Client Focus as the Priority
  • Build relationships, bring the full firm’s resources and thought leadership:

    "Let’s stay close to clients... bring the whole firm to bear, including our thought leadership to help them figure out what’s going on." (Robert Kaplan, 10:53)

8. AI’s Transformational Importance (11:25–13:33)

• Comparisons to Internet/Electricity
  • Some suggest the AI revolution may surpass the internet’s impact.
  • Corporate boards must decide if AI is friend or foe:

    "If I’m a corporate board or CEO, I feel like I gotta get super smart super quick because it’s either a friend or an enemy to my business." (Paul Sweeney, 11:25)

• Business Experimentation and M&A
  • Companies are running multiple use cases, learning fast, and hedging bets via strategic M&A:

    "Anybody tells you I know exactly how this is going, they don’t know. The smartest people I know are in the middle of it and they’re open to learning..." (Robert Kaplan, 11:54)

• Sectoral Shakeout and Software Uncertainty
  • Data center/compute infrastructure investment is clear; software adoption path less certain.
  • Advisors and consultants crucial for navigating implementation:

    "Clients are going to need advice to help with the installation of software. Companies are critical of that. So I think we’re, we’re literally wrestling our way through this." (Robert Kaplan, 12:58)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On AI and Corporate Strategy:

  "We are in the middle of not only an AI data center power capex boom, but now we're in the early stages of the adoption boom, which is going to improve productivity growth."
  (Robert Kaplan, 04:10)

  "Anybody tells you I know exactly how this is going, they don’t know. The smartest people I know are in the middle of it and they’re open to learning and are not prejudging it."
  (Robert Kaplan, 11:54)

• On Private Credit Risks:

  "This is the crisis before the crisis... If we have a credit cycle then you’re going to see more issues in private credit."
  (Robert Kaplan, 07:38)

• On Labor Market Mismatches:

  "I've never seen more open jobs: window installers, technicians, plumbers... can't find them."
  (Robert Kaplan, 05:32)

Timestamps for Important Segments

• Kansas City & Baseball Labor Issues: 00:37–02:46
• Fed Policy & Market Reaction: 02:48–04:10
• Corporate Response to Economic & AI Trends: 04:10–05:32
• Labor Market and Education Mismatches: 05:32–06:44
• M&A Outlook in Trump’s America: 06:49–07:19
• Private Credit Systemic Issues: 07:19–10:44
• Advice to Bankers/Client Strategy: 10:44–11:25
• AI's Societal & Business Impact: 11:25–13:33

Conclusion

Kaplan offers a measured, nuanced look at the crossroads of monetary policy, corporate decision-making under uncertainty, and the changing landscape due to AI and private credit expansion. His views stress preparation, adaptation, and humility amid rapid change—reminding listeners that leaders must focus on learning, not on certainty, in a time of extraordinary economic and technological transformation.