Wedbush's Dan Ives Talks Nvidia Earnings

Summary

Bloomberg Talks: Wedbush's Dan Ives Talks Nvidia Earnings

Date: February 26, 2026
Guest: Dan Ives, Global Head of Tech Research at Wedbush Securities
Hosted by: Bloomberg Team

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Episode Overview

This episode features tech analyst Dan Ives breaking down Nvidia’s recent earnings and the broader tech and AI landscape with Bloomberg’s hosts. Discussion touches on Nvidia’s dominance, its competitors, the state of software stocks versus semiconductors, strategic insights on Apple, and opinions on trends in college football. Ives provides deep context, delivering characteristic metaphors and bold calls on where investors should be looking in today’s market.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

Nvidia’s “Michael Jordan-like” Performance

• Nvidia’s Data Center Windfall:
  • Dan Ives labels Nvidia’s results as “Michael Jordan like numbers” (01:05).
  • Points to data center segment outperforming street expectations and “law of large numbers doesn’t apply with Nvidia.”
  • Projects current guidance as “conservative,” seeing 30% year-on-year growth possibly moving “closer to 40%” (01:23).
• 500 Billion Dollar Opportunity:
  • References Nvidia’s “Blackwell and Rubin” platform, suggesting even the company’s $500 billion opportunity is underestimated.

AMD’s Position in AI Chips

• Competitive Landscape:
  • Dan Ives praises AMD CEO Lisa Su for strong strategic moves but maintains Nvidia’s top spot:

    "If Lisa Su is flying the plane, you're in 3A, drinking cabernet, watching Netflix, feeling really good. ... AMD, they're going to get 15, 20% of this market over the coming years." (02:01)

• Vendor Expansion & Risks:
  • Hosts question whether Nvidia's vendor base can expand.
  • Ives notes: “At least next 18, 24 months, probably 36 months. If you’re calling the red phone for a chip, it’s the godfather of a black leather jack of Jensen who’s answering that phone” (03:15).

Margins, Competition, and Industry Outlook

• Gross Margins & Competition:
  • Nvidia is expected to maintain “gross margin 75% over the coming years.” (02:48)
  • Certain risk from tech giants developing their own chips, and from international players (Huawei, China), but “right now, you don’t have a choice.”
• Medium-term Market Structure:
  • The field is likely to broaden from a handful of vendors to potentially “5, 7, 10 vendors over time” (03:27).

Software Stocks vs. Hardware Hype

• Market Disconnect:

  • Dan Ives sees software stocks (“Salesforce, ServiceNow, Microsoft, others”) as undervalued and their decline as overblown:

    “It’s the most…disconnected tech trade that I’ve seen in my career.” (03:54)

  • Cites Jensen Huang’s (Nvidia CEO) earnings call:

    “Software will be the hearts and lungs from a data perspective and use cases of AI.” (03:57)

  • Downplays fears over AI models like Claude unseating software incumbents as “a fictional tale.”

• Current Hedge Fund Behavior:

  • Instead of buying the software dip, Ives observes, “everyone just run[ning] to semis and hard[ware].” (04:56)
  • Hosts draw comparison to a previous panic in April 2025, asking if “this is the same analog now.”
  • Ives responds with a baseball analogy to describe short-term negativity:

    “It’d be like being negative on Aaron Judge because of the way he plays the first week of a season.” (05:42)

  • Sees this as a “generational opportunity” for software leaders.

Apple’s 2026 Outlook

• Product Refresh Ahead:
  • Apple is expected to deliver both lower-cost iPhones and significant iOS updates (Siri-based AI), leading up to the iPhone 18 and WWDC (06:32).
• Stock Prognosis:
  • Ives makes a bold comparison:

    “This is a stock Google in 2025 will be Apple in 2026 between the product refreshers…” (07:06)

Sports Sidebar: Penn State & College Football

• Perspectives on Coaching & NIL:
  • Dan Ives, a Penn State alum, praises the new coaching hire and NIL rules:

    “We got the golden ticket with Campbell as coach. … It’s the rebuild to a natty in the next few years.” (07:37)

  • On NIL (Name/Image/Likeness):

    “I think they’ve even[ed] the playing field… It’s a new world. But, but I think it’s, it’s, it’s not going to be changed anytime soon.” (08:27)

Dan Ives’s Top Stock Pick

• Microsoft as the “Most Disconnected” Tech Stock:
  • Ives’s single best buy:

    “A single best buy to me right here is Microsoft. Microsoft, the way that that stock’s trading, it’s almost the most disconnected tech stock that I’ve seen probably in the last two years.” (08:58)

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Notable Quotes

• On Nvidia's strength:
  • “If you look at this over years...I view these as generational opportunities as this all plays out. ... The Bears are winning the narrative in the day that's going to be short lived. That's how you ultimately...make money in this market.” — Dan Ives (05:42)
• On AMD’s strategic positioning:
  • “If Lisa Su is flying the plane, you’re in 3A, drinking cabernet, watching Netflix, feeling really good…” — Dan Ives (02:01)
• On the current software selloff:
  • “It’s the most...disconnected tech trade that I’ve seen in my career.” — Dan Ives (03:54)
• On Apple’s future:
  • “This is a stock Google in 2025 will be Apple in 2026 between the product refreshers…” — Dan Ives (07:06)
• On Microsoft:
  • “A single best buy to me right here is Microsoft. … It’s almost the most disconnected tech stock that I’ve seen probably in the last two years.” — Dan Ives (08:58)

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Timestamps for Important Segments

• Nvidia Earnings Outperformance: 01:05–01:46
• AMD’s Progress & Competitive Landscape: 02:01–02:24
• Market Share, Gross Margins, Competition: 02:48–03:34
• Software Stocks vs. Hardware Mania: 03:54–05:14
• Current Market Analogy & Opportunity: 05:42–06:11
• Apple’s Product Pipeline & Strategic Outlook: 06:32–07:15
• Penn State & College Football Trends: 07:30–08:54
• Single Best Buy (Microsoft): 08:58

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Tone & Style

Dan Ives brings candid, energetic takes, often using sports analogies and bold language to capture both risk and opportunity. The episode moves quickly across segments, balancing in-depth tech sector insight with lighter commentary on sports and investing narratives.

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Transcript

[IBM Representative]

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[Dan Ives]

Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

[Interviewer 1]

Joining us now, heavy hitter Dan Ives from Scottsdale, Arizona. Dan, you've got Dodgers, Giants, I believe tomorrow, right?

[Dan Ives]

Yeah. So look, it's we got some I some in video and then you got

[Interviewer 1]

some baseball off to see on it, translate in video. We've really had a focus on the show on it. You put out a real reaffirmation. Now, how far out are you looking on Dan Ives on Nvidia?

[Dan Ives]

Excuse me, I look, these are Michael Jordan like numbers. I mean, if you look on the data center side, I mean, you're talking about, you know, 5 to 700 bips above street whisper numbers into next quarter, 70 growth, it's 77. I mean, you talk about law of large numbers, it doesn't apply with Nvidia. And I think as it plays out, this is showing the 500 billion they talked about with Blackwell and Rubin. It's conservative. And I think his numbers look out 30% growth next year probably goes closer to 40%. And that's why then there's a stock that should be up significantly as we look into the coming weeks and months.

[Interviewer 2]

How do you put Nvidia vis a vis AMD these days? AMD seems to be really stepping up its cadence of announcements. Obviously the deal with Metta, they made another announcement today. I know Nvidia is the big, big player there, Dan, but how do you size up just the competitive landscape?

[Dan Ives]

Look, Lisa sue, look, if Lisa sue is flying the plan, you're in 3A, drinking cabernet, watching Netflix, feeling really good. Okay? So, you know, she making all the right moves to narrow the gap because Nvidia, that's obviously the one chip in the world fueling the AI revolution. But AMD, they're going to get 15, 20% of this market over the coming years.

[Interviewer 1]

One of the theme I see in the research notes this morning is most people like D. Dan Ives lift up their price targets, some conservatively, some with a little more aggression, is Dan Ives. The idea that they will expand beyond five or six vendors is that an assured thing or is it, Would you put that under risk factors that they can't get the rest of the world to pay up for in video?

[Dan Ives]

Yeah, look, I think right now, yeah, you don't have a choice. And that's when you look at margins, gross margin 75% over the coming years you will have competition. Big tech companies are going to try build their own chips obviously amd what you see with Huawei and China and others. But the reality is, especially when it comes to physical AI, autonomous robotics, you're going to have no choice right now where Nvidia, you're going to ultimately have to go down that route with Nvidia. But this is going to spread 5, 7, 10 vendors over time. But at least next 18, 24 months, probably 36 months. If you're calling the red phone for a chip, it's the godfather of a black leather jack of Jensen who's answering that phone.

[Interviewer 2]

Dan, what's the, what's the conversation you're having these days with your tech clients as it relates to software and just the threat potential real? I don't know that I may pose to some of these software vendors because boy, those stocks have been taken out to the woodshed.

[Dan Ives]

Yeah, Paul, it's the most in my opinion, disconnected tech trade that I've seen in my career because and Jensen hit on it last night on the earnings call. Software will be the hearts and lungs from a data perspective and use cases of AI. So the concept that Claude and others are going to unseat these, when you look at Salesforce, ServiceNow, Microsoft, others, it's a fictional tale and I think investors trying to figure out like how do you play software? Right now everyone's running for the hills, you're in semis and hardware, no one's even touching software. But I view that as the opportunity to own some of these core winners.

[Interviewer 2]

I mean, what's the conversation you're having? I would think the hedge funds would be really, if I'm a hedge fund manager, I'm going right to my tech analyst and saying I think this might be once in a lifetime opportunity to buy some of these names. I mean, but you can be obviously really right or really wrong here. What's, what do you think the conversation is?

[Dan Ives]

The conversation, you think it's that, but it's actually, I think it's almost the opposite. You're seeing everyone just run to semis and hard.

[Interviewer 1]

This is important, Dan, on this Thursday you can report right now that what you're observing is people are still running

[Dan Ives]

Running for the hills like you know they're being chased by a dinosaur.

[Interviewer 1]

Okay, let me, let me interrupt here because you killed this in April. We were running for the hills on April, the first week of April last year. Oops. And you know you nailed that along with some other people. You weren't alone. Is this the same equivalent, the same analog now is the running there of April. You know a year ago general it

[Dan Ives]

would be like being negative on Aaron Judge because of the way he plays the first week of a season. The point is if you look at this over years right ServiceNow, Salesforce, what Arvin doing at IBM you look at Microsoft. I view these as generational opportunities as is all plays out. And that's why right now like the Bears are winning the narrative in the day that's going to be short lived. That's how you ultimately that's how you make money in this market.

[Interviewer 1]

Okay, let's switch gears. Danaves with the stock global head of tech research at Wedbush securities from Scott Still Arizona this morning we welcome all of you around the world and across the nation. Apple's going to do some soiree right now. I see all the Apple gossip. I think they did a product refresh last year. What's the product refresh look like this year?

[Dan Ives]

Yeah, I mean they'll be like on when you look at different models from the iPhone, the SE you're going to have some lower cost models that they release. And I think this is one where they start to tiptoe into iOS. We talk about 26 for 265 where that's going to finally be Siri AI which all leads into WWDC and iPhone 18. Look at the way we obviously talk about all the time. Look at the way Apple's trading. I am telling you right now this is a Stock Google in 2025 will be Apple in 2026 between the product refreshers and listen to you.

[Interviewer 1]

Okay. I've been using AI here and all I know is Penn State has to play Wisconsin, USC and October 17th Michigan. I mean Penn State is a tough

[Interviewer 2]

schedule but they don't have to play Ohio State.

[Interviewer 1]

That's big. Okay.

[Interviewer 2]

That's big.

[Interviewer 1]

We now report from State College Pennsylvania with Daniel Ives as well. Are they beyond the coaching debacle.

[Dan Ives]

Oh and we, we, we got the golden ticket with Campbell as coach. Now I told you like we've talked about it it's the rebuild to a natty in the next few years. Big ten right now I hate to say it for the sec. I mean It's a Big ten dominant league. I think Penn State is in just a phenomenal position going into 26 and beyond.

[Interviewer 2]

You know Tom, at Penn State football's good but the wrestling program is crazy good.

[Interviewer 1]

It's like Iowa State.

[Interviewer 2]

It's like Iowa back in when we were kids.

[Interviewer 1]

When we were kids, yeah.

[Interviewer 2]

And people go to the matches. They go to like tens of thousands.

[Interviewer 1]

Dana, I seriously here you've been a huge supporter as an alumni of Penn State. You're down in the field and all the rock star stuff. If they ruined college football is it now become so commercial? It's just not the same that you and I and Paul knew years ago.

[Dan Ives]

I actually, I think they've even the playing field when I look at nil. I mean now it actually comes down to like you're seeing more, you're seeing the ability. That's why I think Big Ten is obviously started become a dominant levers sec. Look, the competition and the athletes ultimately you know they deserve to get paid. And it just comes down to like, you know, it's a new world. But, but I think it's, it's, it's not going to be changed anytime soon.

[Interviewer 1]

Got to go. What's your single best buy this morning?

[Dan Ives]

A single best buy to me right here is Microsoft. Microsoft, the way that that stocks trading, it's, it's almost the most disconnected tech stock that I've seen probably in the last two years.

[Interviewer 1]

Denise, thank you so much. Trooper from Scottsdale this morning.

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