Wedbush's Dan Ives Talks SpaceX IPO Plans

Summary

Bloomberg Talks: Wedbush's Dan Ives Talks SpaceX IPO Plans (May 22, 2026)

Episode Overview

In this episode, Bloomberg’s host welcomes Dan Ives, Managing Director at Wedbush Securities, to dissect the current tech landscape, focusing on AI infrastructure costs, the anticipated SpaceX IPO, potential Musk-led megamergers, and the competitive outlook for tech giants like Microsoft. Combining market insight with candid predictions, Ives shares his views on major trends shaping technology investment in 2026.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Soaring Cost of AI Adoption

[00:25-01:35]

• The host opens with the rising expenses of AI infrastructure, referencing industry commentary and Microsoft's recent limits on AI usage due to cost.
• Dan Ives acknowledges that while costs are high, they're reflective of an early stage in the AI arms race. He predicts that spending is strategic: “No company, whether it's large cap tech, small cap international could basically not go down this route because...the cost and the monetization...they'll flip flop over the next few years and that's why companies are spending at this point.” (01:02)
• Ives anticipates that, as more data centers come online, costs will eventually decline, but current spending is critical for future positioning.

2. Industry Consolidation & Growth Timeline

[01:35-02:25]

• The host asks if heavy spending will lead to tech industry consolidation and uses baseball innings as a metaphor for how early we are in the AI game.
• Dan Ives sees this as the “second and third inning” (01:53), emphasizing we're still early: “The bears in their caves hibernation mood...have missed every transformational tech stock the last 20 years. They'll continue to miss the AI trade underestimating the scale and scope of what the spending looks like.”
• Ives highlights massive international demand for tech components, mentioning "in Asia demand the supply is what, 12 to 1” (01:53), fueling ongoing capital expenditure across tech and energy.

3. SpaceX IPO: Investor Rights and the Musk Effect

[02:25-03:33]

• The conversation pivots to SpaceX’s upcoming record-breaking IPO and its unusual shareholder and voting rights structure.
• Dan Ives underscores the uniqueness of betting against Elon Musk: “Bottom line is betting against Musk. It's been the historically wrong move for investors.” (02:54)
• Ives points out that SpaceX’s IPO isn’t just about Musk but about “a watershed moment...we think a year from now over an 80% chance SpaceX and Tesla merge.” (02:54)
• He notes that as more SpaceX shares become available on private markets, it's creating new investment opportunities.

4. Potential SpaceX & Tesla Merger: How to Play It

[03:33-04:00]

• The host presses Ives about how investors can position themselves for a potential Musk megamerger.
• Dan Ives recommends: “You buy Tesla...because from a valuation perspective I think Tesla we've talked about is almost a double from here relative to the pure opportunities...autonomous robotics and...the next level of AI. And that's why Musk is doing this, to bring this all under one hood.” (03:39)
• Ives frames the merger as Musk’s strategy to unify his AI and robotics ambitions in a single entity.

5. Microsoft’s Position in the AI Race

[04:00-05:17]

• The host playfully imagines Dan Ives grilling on Memorial Day before turning to Microsoft's future.
• Dan Ives argues that the narrative of Microsoft falling behind Google or Amazon is misplaced: “Microsoft and Apple are the two most...large cap names relative to where they are. We've talked about $150 upside of Microsoft here. They will prove themselves over the next 6-12 months. They will be the Google of 2025.” (04:32)
• He is bullish on Microsoft, pointing to enterprise migration to Azure and Microsoft’s AI ecosystem.

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Dan Ives on Early AI Investments:
  “No company...could basically not go down this route because eventually...the cost and the monetization...they'll flip flop over the next few years.” (01:02)

• Dan Ives on Industry Stage:
  “It's second and third inning...the bears in their caves hibernation mood...have missed every transformational tech stock the last 20 years. They'll continue to miss the AI trade.” (01:53)

• Dan Ives on Musk:
  “Bottom line is betting against Musk. It's been the historically wrong move for investors.” (02:54)

• Prediction of Mega-Merger:
  “We think a year from now over an 80% chance SpaceX and Tesla merge.” (02:54)

• Dan Ives on Tesla’s Upside:
  “Tesla we've talked about is almost a double from here...that's why Musk is doing [the merger], to bring this all under one hood.” (03:39)

• Dan Ives on Microsoft:
  “Microsoft and Apple are the two most I view table pound or large cap names...We've talked about $150 upside of Microsoft here. They will be the Google of 2025.” (04:32)

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Key Timed Segments

• AI Cost/Infrastructure Arms Race: 00:25–01:35
• Industry Consolidation & Timing: 01:35–02:25
• SpaceX IPO & Musk Control: 02:25–03:33
• Tesla/SpaceX Merger & Investor Strategy: 03:33–04:00
• Microsoft’s AI Future: 04:00–05:17

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Tone & Style

The exchange balances the expertise and no-nonsense market perspective of Dan Ives with the Bloomberg host's mix of urgency and humor. Ives offers bold predictions, sticking closely to analytical rationale for his bullishness on Musk, Tesla, and Microsoft, while the host keeps the conversation both accessible and high-energy.

This episode is a must-listen (or must-read) for those interested in the intersection of big tech, AI investment, and the rapidly shifting frontiers of finance, with actionable insights on how to approach major upcoming shifts in the tech sector.

Transcript

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[Podcast Host]

here on a Friday. Parachuting in after world travels. Dan Ives joins us here. Dan I'm supposed to talk about Apple Nvidia. Forget about it. Here's the Zeitgeist this morning folks and Doug Case, thank you for sending this on to me. Jeff Curry's out on the Twitter on this as well. Guess what? Tokens cost money. OMG look at the CFO's bill for doing AI in your company. Dan Ives Deloitte wrote this up in January like 80 pages. OMG this is going to be expensive. You see Microsoft limiting use of Claude because it's too expensive. How is this going to play out?

[Dan Ives]

Dan Ives I mean look it just speaks to we're still in the early stages. There's more data centers being built in active data centers. Costs over time will come down. But right now in this arms race, no company, whether it's large cap tech, small cap international could basically not go down this route because eventually what's going to happen is the cost and the monetization. They'll flip flop over the next few years and that's why companies are spending at this point.

[Podcast Host]

I agree on that. But on a macro basis and you're world famous on this, does that mean we see a consolidation within the industry and is that in the second inning here is the Red Sox try to get to 4th of July or is it in the 8th inning the Yankees are ready to lose to the Blue Jays again which is it?

[Dan Ives]

It it's second and third inning because this is look it speaks to like the bears in their caves hibernation mood that have missed every transformational tech stock the last 20 years. They'll continue to miss the AI trade underestimating the scale and scope of what the spending looks like. And I've seen it, you know, just even a few weeks ago in Taiwan. In Asia demand the supply is what, 12 to 1 and that is going to continue to drive this massive Capex and the ripple effects across tech, energy and everything else.

[Podcast Host]

Damien Torsten Slack Publishing Moments ago for Apollo Global Management it capex now accounts for more than 1/3 of S&P 500 capex spending.

[Podcast Guest]

Well, I mean I have to, I mean wow. I mean but I have to. You know let's just shift the Way here we have the world's largest, I mean on record IPO coming out in space X here. And I just got to ask you Dan, I mean what are your thoughts here on. On Musk and shareholder rights and, and minority rights and control? I mean is this unusual the type of structure we're seeing here?

[Dan Ives]

Bottom line is betting against Musk. It's been the historically wrong move for investors. Right. And I think many learn that betting against Tesla, you're betting on Musk and I get some of the in terms of voting rights and things like that book SpaceX you're talking about one of one relative to what's going to really create a whole new category of investing and that you've seen the private markets, you know, as more stock has come available over the last, you know, call it three or six months and we're talking about a watershed moment not just for Musk, not just for SpaceX but as we've talked about, we think a year from now over an 80% chance SpaceX and Tesla merge.

[Podcast Guest]

Wow. So if that happens, I mean where. How do investors position. How do you take advantage of that? Let's put our merger or a pat on.

[Dan Ives]

Well you, you buy task. I mean to some extent because from a valuation perspective I think Tesla we've talked about is almost a double from here relative to the pure opportunities we think about autonomous robotics and where this is all going in terms of the next level of AI. And that's why Musk is doing this, to bring this all under one hood

[Podcast Host]

on a Friday of Memorial Day. Dan, can you see Dan Ives out in the backyard with a grill? Can you not Michael Barr, do you think he's doing like the whole thing, the grilled chicken, the long tongs. He got long tongs one at the grill. I could see, I could just see him there, you know, you know, with a Milwaukee Best in his hand and the whole thing. Dan, give me Microsoft is just, you know, a stock idea. You're on it, Ackman's on it. I get it. What's the why the distinction the differential

[Dan Ives]

of Microsoft look right now because of Google and the success massive that they've had in Amazon. There's a view especially with open air that sort of competition and Microsoft's starting to lose in the game and I just strongly disagree because as enterprises move to Azure and they move on the AI stack they're going to move in Microsoft. Look Microsoft and Apple are the two most I view table pound or large cap names relative to where they're. We've talked about $150 upside of Microsoft here. They will prove themselves over the next 612 months. They will be the Google of 2025. That's where I view Microsoft in terms of that. You know that. Prove it.

[Podcast Host]

Moment generous of you to be with us on this Friday. Dan Ives with Wedbush Securities. Thank you so much. Next time he's on, folks, we'll do the stock thing. You know, Apple and video and all that.

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