Yorkville Ives Senior Managing Director Dan Ives Talks AI Revolution

Summary

Podcast Summary

Podcast: Bloomberg Talks
Host: Bloomberg
Episode: Yorkville Ives Senior Managing Director Dan Ives Talks AI Revolution
Date: August 12, 2026

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Episode Overview

This episode features a deep-dive conversation with Dan Ives, the prominent tech analyst, now Partner and Senior Managing Director at Yorkville Ives, focusing on the ongoing "AI Revolution". The discussion covers Dan's career move, the current state and future impact of AI, global competition—particularly between the US and China, the analogy between today's AI investment spree and the early days of Las Vegas, risks (including political and concentration), and what the next phase of AI could look like, especially regarding data, enterprise, and automation.

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1. Dan Ives’ New Role and Career Move

Timestamps: 00:37–04:14

• Dan Ives explains his transition from Wedbush to Yorkville Ives, citing a vision to build "a modern merchant bank" focused on innovation, tech, and energy research.
  • Quote: “It was to create what I view as a modern merchant bank… something where… I just felt like for me it was an evolution in my career for something that to build a bank and especially have great research that's focused on tech, energy, and really across industries.” – Dan Ives (01:28)
• He mentions simplifying his activities—stepping back from certain projects like ETF launches and crypto initiatives to double down on his strengths in tech research.
• Waiting for the official research license at Yorkville Ives, but he intends to replicate his previous research impact, assembling a forward-thinking team.

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2. Placing the Current Innovation Cycle

Timestamps: 04:15–05:20

• Dan describes the AI boom as "the true fourth industrial revolution," seeing fundamental shifts akin to historical technological leaps.
• He contrasts skeptics—"bears" in their offices—with his first-hand experience in Asia and with tech companies.
  • Quote: “The reality is, for the first time in 30 years, the US is ahead of China when it comes to tech. And I think that's extremely important relative to where we are.” – Dan Ives (04:34)

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3. The US, China, and the AI Arms Race

Timestamps: 05:21–06:58

• Dan warns against underestimating China’s capacity for innovation, noting their government focus on energy, nuclear, and robotics.
• He asserts that US data center policy could inadvertently boost China’s global tech position.
  • Quote: “If you have moratoriums and you shut down data centers, the winner in that becomes China…every data center that gets voted down, China smiles.” – Dan Ives (06:48)

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4. Vegas Strip Analogy: The AI Land Grab

Timestamps: 07:03–09:00

• Responding to a listener, Dan likens today’s AI infrastructure build-out to the early Vegas Strip: lots of uncertainty, but those who stake a place early will dominate long-term.
• Microsoft is highlighted as a “North Star,” with CEO Satya Nadella guiding strategic long-term investment despite naysayers.
  • Quote: “You have like Nadella is a North Star...if you don’t have a place on that strip, are you staying at that hotel two miles from Vegas? Eventually you’re in Santa Fe...These companies know there’s one strip.” – Dan Ives (07:28)

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5. AI Revenue, Chip Supply, and the Jenga Puzzle

Timestamps: 09:01–10:30

• Dan addresses concerns about whether AI growth is a mirage driven by how chipmakers book revenue, underscoring a real supply/demand imbalance (13:1 or 14:1).
• He likens the chip market and the entire AI ecosystem to a Jenga puzzle—each player critical, especially those holding chip assets.
  • Quote: “…[Investors] are way underestimating the scale and scope of the AI revolution.” – Dan Ives (09:47)
• Expects supply/demand equilibrium for chips won’t arrive until 2028/29.

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6. China’s Surprising Advances & “Physical AI”

Timestamps: 10:59–12:37

• Dan identifies "physical AI" (robotics, autonomous systems) as the next frontier in innovation, especially prominent in China.
  • Quote: “Physical AI, to me, that is the thing that stands out the most…the golden goose.” – Dan Ives (11:36)
• Predicts a shift from “table stakes” software models to hardware-integrated, real-world AI.

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7. Risks: Concentration & Circular Financing

Timestamps: 12:37–15:14

• Ed Zitron’s remarks highlight risk: 70% of Microsoft’s AI revenue comes from OpenAI—raising fears of dangerous concentration.
• Dan shrugs off short-term risk, asserting diversification will occur as the market matures, and more enterprises worldwide get involved.
  • Quote: “That number two years now, three years from now, the concentration risk is not [an issue]…[today] it’s a small group of companies, but…we’re still in the early parts.” – Dan Ives (14:12)

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8. The Real Value: Data, Not Models

Timestamps: 16:32–18:10

• The host compares today’s LLM competition to past VC-fuelled booms, with consumers skipping between interchangeable offerings.
• Dan asserts long-term value is in proprietary data, not models themselves. The space will fragment into vertical and regional models, making data the new oil.
  • Quote: “The models…are not going to be where the value is…eventually models, you’re going to have hundreds…regional, vertical…where it’s all heading is a conduit because eventually models…The value is in the data.” – Dan Ives (16:55)

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9. The Greatest Risk: Political Interference

Timestamps: 18:10–19:21

• Ives is unequivocal: government regulation poses the most significant threat to the AI boom—especially local/federal data center restrictions and non-tech-savvy politicians.
  • Quote: “The biggest risk…is government. When you look…what’s happened in New York State…A lot of politicians that are still using Blackberries, do you want them ultimately determining AI? That’s the scary thing.” – Dan Ives (18:16, 18:31)

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10. Jobs, U.S. Renaissance, and Closing Thoughts

Timestamps: 19:05–19:51

• The host raises concerns about job losses and universal basic income due to AI.
• Ives takes the optimistic view, drawing on his experience around the US to argue AI represents a “renaissance” that can revitalize domestic job markets:
  • Quote: “For the first time in 30 years, the US is ahead of China when it comes to technologies or the innovation boom and to what I view as really a renaissance. I view that as to add jobs in the United States despite maybe some of the, you know, more negative views today.” – Dan Ives (19:36)

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Memorable Quotes & Timestamps

• On his career change:
  “It was…an evolution in my career…to build a bank and…have great research that’s focused on tech, energy, and really across industries.” (01:28)
• On US vs. China:
  “For the first time in 30 years, the US is ahead of China when it comes to tech.” (04:34)
• On the Vegas Strip analogy:
  “[Nadella] is a North Star…these companies know there’s one strip…if you don’t have a place…you’re in Santa Fe.” (07:28)
• On chip supply/demand:
  “Demand supply for chips…13, 14 to 1. Everyone think about it…they hold the cards, the chip players.” (09:01)
• On the next AI phase:
  “Physical AI…that is the thing that stands out the most…the golden goose.” (11:36)
• On where value will emerge:
  “The models…not going to be where the value is…it is just going to be a conduit…The value is in the data.” (16:55)
• On political risk:
  “The biggest risk…is government…A lot of politicians that are still using Blackberries, do you want them ultimately determining AI?” (18:16, 18:31)
• On AI and US jobs:
  “For the first time in 30 years, the US is ahead of China…and to what I view as really a renaissance…add jobs in the United States.” (19:36)

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Key Takeaways

• AI is in an early, explosive phase akin to the early days of Vegas, with massive, long-term implications.
• US currently has a tech lead, but China is resilient—policy decisions could easily flip the advantage.
• Chip supply is the linchpin of the current AI cycle, and equilibrium isn’t expected until at least 2028/29.
• Real, lasting value in AI will come from proprietary data, not commoditized models—which will proliferate in the coming years.
• Political and regulatory interference is seen as the top existential risk to the US AI boom.
• Despite anxieties about job loss, Ives predicts a US jobs “renaissance” due to AI-driven innovation.

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This summary captures the essence and detailed insights from Dan Ives’ in-depth discussion on the current and future state of the AI revolution, providing valuable context for financial, tech, and policy watchers.

Transcript

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[Dan Ives]

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[Interviewer / Host]

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Bloomberg Audio Studios Podcasts Radio News all

right, we have do have a lot to talk about with Dan Ives. There is a lot to talk three of your systems just reporting falling 8% second quarter revenue disappoints core weave surging after the AI spending frenzy spurred faster sales growth than anticipated with sales expected to be 3.45 billion to 3.6 billion in the third quarter. We've got with us for the next half hour or so Dan Ives. He's partner and senior managing director at Yorkville Ives. It's the first time I've read that title for you, Dan, because you know, for so long we knew you at Wedbush and we knew you as this what many people called a tech perma bull. I want to get to your outlook on not just this earnings season and what to expect from Nvidia and the so called circular financing, but before we do that because we haven't had a chance to sit down with you since this job change, I want to just hear from you why you left Wedbush and what you're doing now at Yorkville Lives.

[Dan Ives]

Yeah, I mean for me and it was a great, you know, eight years at Wedbush, but it was to create what I view as like a modern merchant bank, you know, really something where when I think about this fourth industrial revolution and for my, you know, called going in Wall street since late 90s, it was seeing around corners and seeing the opportunity and I just felt like for me it was an evolution in my career for something that to build a bank and especially have great research that's focused on tech energy, you know, and really across industries. And I found great partners in Yorkville and to me it was the right place, right time to do something like this given my view of the AI revolution.

[Interviewer / Host]

Well, I want to get to more on that and we're going to get to the AI revolution. But we spoke to you at Future Proof where you'll be there again this year, September of last year. And I remember the conversation because it was not just about what you were doing at Wedbush, but it was about the ETF that you had launched. You were also chairman at the time of worldcoin, this, this crypto project, or ako.

[Dan Ives]

Yeah.

[Interviewer / Host]

Oh, yeah, thank you. Which is part of. Which was.

[Dan Ives]

Yeah. Which was really to World.

[Interviewer / Host]

Okay. Related to World Coin. So what is, like, what is the status of those projects now?

[Dan Ives]

Yeah, so that, so in terms of like, I left ako.

[Interviewer / Host]

Yeah. But what about the etf?

[Dan Ives]

Yeah. And that, like, you know, there's been no change in terms of that. And that's something where, for me, look, it was sort of like simplifying, I think, some of my other activities. And really, to me, it was really doubling down to some extent on what people know me as in terms of when it comes to tech, when it comes to great research. And I think around the world, so many more investors have such a focus in tech, and it's something where to try to be some guiding light relative to a lot of the confusion that you see in the market.

[Interviewer / Host]

What can you do now that you want that you couldn't do before?

[Dan Ives]

I mean, there's, you know, we're, look, we're still awaiting our research license.

[Interviewer / Host]

Yeah.

[Dan Ives]

But for now, this is like when it's all sort of built, it will be something that it will be exactly the same. DAN ives, RESEARCH and you know, what we've done for investors over the decades, and that's really why we built it. But also it's, for me, it's finding the right people that want to do things when it comes to innovation, when it comes to building, whether it's on the research side or across the industry. And I just think right now we're going through an innovation boom. And in my career, it's really been an evolution for me. There was a natural next step. And I've been super excited about the feedback that we've gotten. And just from many around the world,

[Interviewer / Host]

we have seen a lot of innovation cycles. And you have been along for that ride. And I'm just curious, curious how you continue to put this particular cycle in its place and in its spot. And how much do we really know about the ultimate impact?

[Dan Ives]

I mean, as someone like myself that spends so much time in Asia.

[Interviewer / Host]

Yeah.

[Dan Ives]

So much time talking to CEOs, CIOs that's done this since the late 90s. This is a true fourth industrial revolution. And look, we've talked about it with you guys for many years. And that's why I think a lot of times the skeptics or the bears, they're bearish from the 15th floor, their new York City office building, or wherever it may be, but they're not in Fabs in Taiwan, they're not seeing the demand. And the reality is like for the first time in 30 years, the US is ahead of China when it comes to tech. And I think that's extremely important relative to where we are. And I think what you've seen with earnings, whether it's on the neoclouds, the hyperscalers, that it's just, it is crystal clear that the monetization phase is now starting to take over.

[Interviewer / Host]

But do we have to be worried about China? Because they certainly have the government now saying, okay, they are prioritizing this and with money, with efforts, with, you know, how it works. We've seen it with cars, we've seen it with ev, we've seen it in so many different industries. And they want to make sure they have a place at the table with this. So how do you, how far are they along? What do we really know about their expertise?

[Dan Ives]

Yeah, so I think as someone that spends so much time in the region, it's one like counting them out is the wrong bet. Because the reality is, is that not just from a government perspective, when it comes to energy, you know just how ahead they've been when it comes to nuclear energy, when it comes to robotics. And it's one where I think part of why Jensen is so focused on selling into China and I think a lot of the chip companies, because if you do not sell into China, it just makes them that much more powerful. Yeah, it narrows the gap. And also when it comes to like the political, whether it's grandstanding, whatever you want to call in terms of like what's happened here in the data centers. And data centers are the hearts and lungs of the AI revolution. So if you have moratoriums and you shut down data centers, the winner in that becomes China relative to what could happen here in the US So I actually think the biggest risk, when you think about what could happen to AI revolution, it's not capex, it's not use cases. The biggest risk is just the political piece gets in the way in terms of the data center build outs because I think that's something where every data center that gets voted down, China smiles.

[Interviewer / Host]

I think we have time for this question. It's a really good one. It's from Brendan in Maryland.

Oh, yeah, yeah, yeah.

He has a question for you. He says You've likened the AI revolution to building out the Vegas strip in the 50s. Can you elaborate on this analogy? What role is Microsoft playing here? Are the hyperscalers like the big casinos and famously does the house Always win.

[Dan Ives]

Great, great, great, great question. Look, and the reason I talk about like Vegas 1955, because if someone told you in 1955 what eventually the sphere was going to be and what Vegas, but then all of a sudden in 1956 there was an issue with the building, you're like, oh, the Strip thing's not going to happen. It's not going to work. It just, that's big tech companies. Like, that's their view, right? Like go back to micro if you. Microsoft is a good example where like two months ago, right. Like New York City cab drivers bearish on Microsoft and that now look, today, right? There's ticker tape parades for it. It just speaks like, because you have like Nadella is a North Star and he's able to see around corners and understand that on the Vegas Strip there's only one strip. If you don't have a place on that strip, are you staying at that hotel two miles from Vegas? Eventually you're in Santa Fe or whatever. I mean, the point is, I'm just trying to explain, like these companies know there's one strip and that's why when saying, well, what about Capex? If it looks like metal, like stocks down, does that mean that they start to, you know, they like slow down their bill? Because they know that if they slow it down they won't have a place in the strip. And then what happens when you look out a few years from now and you're three miles off the strip?

[Interviewer / Host]

I want to get to the second part of Brendan's question.

[Dan Ives]

What a great question.

[Interviewer / Host]

I mean, two parts bloomberg.com askradio that's how Brendan was able to ask the question.

Bloomberg.com askradio this is for terminal subscribers, Bloomberg terminal subscribers and those who also are subscribers to Bloomberg.com so he went on Dan to say even more, some question whether this AI boom is due to chip sellers logging revenues faster than reporting their expenses. Can you speak to that?

[Dan Ives]

Yeah. So I view it as, right now, demand supply for chips. Yeah, 13, 14 to 1. Demand supply. The one thing is that, look, I view the whole thing as kind of like a Jenga puzzle. Everyone think about it. You put it together, right? Whether it's Cisco, Neocloud, hyperscalers, what's happened Palantir. The reality is, is that they hold the cards, the chip players, because you don't have many of them and you're not going to create new ones. And that's look, that's similar what you see in Korea in the costume with the memory players and I just think it's one where when some try to kind of poke holes in some of these stories, the reality is, and it's always been our view that like, investors are way underestimating the scale and scope of the AI revolution.

[Interviewer / Host]

But would you say, and certainly we've heard this around this table of the semiconductor makers who are very sensitive to the cycles of the booms and busts, that they are going to be very careful also in controlling supply in the market. So yes, they're going to invest and they're going to ramp up, but they're not going to do it so much that all of a sudden the price drop. So, so there's got to be a. I don't know what the, the factor is that in that excess demand, 13, 14 times, whatever you said, for chips, how much of that though is the semiconductor companies being very smart in kind of managing the situation and keeping those margins healthy?

[Dan Ives]

I think at one point you'll hit that, but for now, no, the equilibrium you won't hit till probably 2028, maybe early 2029.

[Interviewer / Host]

Everybody keeps talking about 2030. I'm like, I'm going to have a tattooed on my forehead because it just feels like I won't do that.

[Dan Ives]

And that's why the reality is we've always a revolution like we thought it was third inning and now you could argue is Obama the second.

[Interviewer / Host]

When you go to China, when you travel, like I want to ask you about China, like, what do you actually get to see in terms of what's going on there? Because I just feel like they're so. I don't think it's so easy. But I'm curious because when somebody does get a peek into some of what's going in China, I think it really surprises everybody.

[Dan Ives]

It's the innovation. It's really what they're doing on robotics, on what they're doing in ships, on what they're doing on. When you think about physical AI, to me that is the thing that stands out the most because I think the name of the game in AI today, you could argue some of the stuff is almost table stage relative to when you think go to physical AI and when you go to what sort of the next phase is here. And that's why right now, like robotics autonomous true physical AI. I've always viewed physical AI as sort of the golden goose of so agentic

[Interviewer / Host]

AI and agents that that's not the gold.

[Dan Ives]

I view that as a highway to get on to ultimately what's going to be the probably the biggest Monetization piece. And I think that's why like a lot of times I think investors, whether it's like China in terms of open source and different models that come and we go through these sort of like mini scales, deep seat type moments. The value is in the data. That's why sovereign data. You know when you look at Carbon Palantir they talk about so much Jensen Start and talk about a lot. But it's an arms race that's playing out across the board which speaks as you to like circular financing and just you know, we go through these sort of ebbs and flows and the worries there.

[Interviewer / Host]

Well speaking of worries, some folks out there are worried about concentration risk. We spoke to Ed Zitron a few weeks ago from EZ Primary Research. He was on our program. Here's what he said about concentration risk.

[Ed Zitron]

So in calendar year 2025, according to my own reporting about OpenAI's numbers, 69% of the year over year growth of Microsoft intelligent cloud segment was actually from OpenAI. Without that it would have only grown 8% year over year, which is barely beating inflation. And so everyone is being sold what I consider kind of a lie. It's honestly kind of a scandal.

[Interviewer / Host]

That was Ed Zitron of Easy Primary Research after he was on. Just a few days later our Bloomberg news team reported that Microsoft generates most of its AI revenue from OpenAI. It said that what about 70% of sales in a year came from just a couple of different companies. Excuse me, Microsoft's business. 70% of its actual AI sales came from OpenAI during its most recent fiscal year. Is there concentration risk?

[Dan Ives]

But that'd be like the chiefs if they lost Mahomes. They're done. The point is like the reality is like Open air and anthropic, their core central foundations they are, no one will doubt that. But the reality is, is that when you continue to see the funding there and what's happening is that the tech companies, whether it's the hyperscalers and others, yeah, they have so much invested in them, but that's just the first phase. That number two years now, three years from now, the concentration risk is not

[Interviewer / Host]

meaning there will be many companies that are paying of course because now for these services.

[Dan Ives]

Exactly. Because today it's a small group of companies that are paying. But when you think about what's happened with sovereign AI and today really being much more just US based and China based, what's happened in the Middle east and India and just across the world, we're still in the early parts of it but that's why OpenAI and anthropic, when you think about as they go public and there's opportunity that just further solidifies the foundation for the AI revolution.

[Interviewer / Host]

I'm going to play devil's advocate to you because I think what someone had said too is that okay, so most of the revenue comes from the AI. Revenue for Microsoft comes from OpenAI. But help me out here. I'm giving you a gift because I'm usually tough. I like to battle with you. No, but the idea is OpenAI has a ton of customers and so that's where the diversification is. But it comes through that conduit. So I guess essentially If Microsoft and OpenAI go to battle, that could be a problem. But is that kind of, is that the right reasoning? Sorry, Tim.

[Dan Ives]

No, that's fine. No, because but to that point is that the concentration risk, it's not just viewed as like it's open, open AI. You talk about thousands of customer anthropic same thing. What they're doing the enterprise, it used to be like what I view, I go say from Microsoft be a concentration risk but Microsoft is the core part of enterprises around the world. So Microsoft represents so many enterprises that are ultimately going. So I just, I view, I understand like, and that's been, that, that's been a concern. But 18 months ago it was a concern. Look where we are today. And that's why I think those that bet against this, it's, it's betting against a cap X cycle that actually continues to accelerate.

[Interviewer / Host]

It feels like there was this, there was this moment in New York in like the mid 2000 teens where all these venture capital backed companies were flush with cash and Uber and Lyft were duking it out, giving you incentives to like take this car, take this car and you as a consumer. And there was a service that came and picked up a package at my home and shipped it off and it was free. They went out of business. But the point is, is that venture capitalists, we're subsidizing this sort of on demand lifestyle. It kind of feels like sometimes we're there with these LLMs.

Where's the Jason?

Yeah, it's free to use cloud. You know, then 20 minutes later you're like okay, well I can't use cloud anymore. I'll just go use Chat GPT. Okay, you use up everything with chat GPT. Oh, I'll go just you know, go to Google and use the AI that Google offers. Like it kind of feels like we're in that moment Again where these are interchangeable at least the LLMs but I've

[Dan Ives]

never viewed that the models, the models is not going to be where the value. That's why anthropic and OpenAI they're already see. They're seeing around the corner. They're focused on enterprise Bill Enterprise Salesforce ultimately really butting heads with core enterprise players. It's going to be in the data. I mean if you just look where it's all heading it is just going to be a conduit because eventually models you're going to have hundreds of models. You have models regional, vertical. It'll get more and more specific industry specific construction models, retail, consumer like the point is like and that's also where like if you think like where Apple's starting to go on the consumer side in terms of like they'll finally be you know a sort of player. But I just think it's one where where AI is today and where it's going to be three, four years from now. I think for many investors look you get one or two investors. You have to be. If you're a technologist and maybe and someone that tries CRM corners up you're going to view it as like this is a true fourth industrial revolution. If you're one of the bears that have called 10 of the last two downturns then you'll, you'll say this is another one and they'll be in hibernation mood and they can't see AI in spreadsheets.

[Interviewer / Host]

But you're a smart man. What's the risk? We have about a minute or so left. There's a risk to everything.

[Dan Ives]

The biggest risk. The biggest risk tell me is government.

[Interviewer / Host]

It's oversight.

[Dan Ives]

When you look like when you look at what's happened in New York State

[Interviewer / Host]

Hokul moratorium data centers.

[Dan Ives]

Data center. That's the biggest midterm elections the political.

[Interviewer / Host]

It's not just New York. There are a lot of but but

[Dan Ives]

around the country and I spent so much time in D.C. and the point is like a lot of politicians that are still using blackberries do you want them ultimately determining AI? And I think that's the same scary thing right. Like it's one where what stifles innovation that you need regulatory. No it out. Yeah and PR problem. A lot of that has been caused by the tech industry in terms of wiping out jobs 18 months scare tactics, things like that. So they've definitely contributed but I think that is the biggest risk. When you think about AI revolution relative to the political piece do you think

[Interviewer / Host]

AI, though, I mean, it's going to wipe out tons of jobs. People talk about universal, universal basic income. I've talked to developers, we've talked to, to developers about thinking about building houses for people who are on like because of AI. Forgive me, only about 40 seconds, but

[Dan Ives]

I'll just take the other side. And so some of myself, I went over three and a half million air miles and been around this country so many times the amount of towns and cities that used to have 75,000 people. Now it's 10,000 factories that went away to China, Malaysia.

[Amazon Health AI / Advertisement Voice]

Yeah.

[Dan Ives]

And I view it as, for the first time in 30 years, the US has headed China when it comes to technologies or the innovation boom and to what I view as really a renaissance. I view that as to add jobs in the United States despite maybe some of the, you know, more negative views today.

[Interviewer / Host]

All right, so go get that research license and come back.

[Dan Ives]

I will. I can't wait.

[Interviewer / Host]

I know we can't wait to have you. Dan Ives, partner and senior managing director at Yorkville Ives, joining us here in Studio. Good to have you back.

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