Global Head of Research at BlackRock Investment Institute Dr. Jean Boivin Talks Iran Ceasefire

Summary

Bloomberg Talks Podcast Summary

Episode: Global Head of Research at BlackRock Investment Institute Dr. Jean Boivin Talks Iran Ceasefire
Date: April 13, 2026
Host: Bloomberg
Guest: Dr. Jean Boivin, Global Head of Research, BlackRock Investment Institute
Main Focus: Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, market response to high-stakes events, and the structural strengths of American finance.

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Episode Overview

This episode features an in-depth conversation with Dr. Jean Boivin, Head of Research at the BlackRock Investment Institute, focusing on how ongoing geopolitical tensions—particularly the crisis around Iran and the threatened blockade of the Strait of Hormuz—are impacting global markets, monetary policy response, and the underlying resilience of the financial system. Other topics include the monetization of innovation in American finance, generational shifts in Canadian politics, and the unique strengths of U.S. economic infrastructure.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Disconnect Between Geopolitics and Tech Market Performance

• Geopolitical Stress vs. Market Earnings:
  Dr. Boivin explains that despite the Middle East conflicts, especially around Iran, technology and broader market earnings remain robust—even as equity markets have derated amid these stresses.
  • Quote (Joe, 02:00): “There has been with the conflict we've seen in the Middle East a disconnect that has been appearing between...solid catalysts for earnings...especially in the tech space and the derating we've seen in equities.”
• Both the host and Dr. Boivin see a potential opportunity if tensions ease:
  • Quote (Joe, 02:00): “To the extent that those [geopolitical risks] get to be contained then...that gap becomes an opportunity.”

2. Can Markets Predict Geopolitical Outcomes?

• Markets' Predictive Power Limited:
  With the world anxiously watching U.S. threats of a blockade, Dr. Boivin is skeptical that markets possess special insight into looming binary risks.
  • Quote (Joe, 02:56): “I don't think the market knows more than anybody actually. These are events that the markets cannot really price in.”
• Investor Positioning Amid Uncertainty:
  • Sitting on the sidelines carries its own risks. There are credible scenarios for de-escalation, and markets might recover sharply once fears subside.
  • Quote (Joe, 03:42): “There's no neutral position...You can stay on the sideline but that could be the time where we get very significant return.”

3. The Strength and Transformation of the Financial System

• Comparison to Past Crises:
  Dr. Boivin notes that today's financial system is fundamentally different from that of 2008, with less hidden leverage and more robust oversight.
  • Quote (Joe, 05:00): “We are in a very different situation than we have been...It's hard for us to see systemic risk that creates these big [shocks].”
• No Evidence of Systemic Risk:
  While risks always exist, the current structure does not mirror pre-2008 types of vulnerabilities.

4. Central Bank Policy amid Supply Shocks

• Central Banks Are Limited:
  The discussion turns to how monetary authorities, particularly the U.S. Fed, manage in unpredictable, supply-driven crisis scenarios.
  • Quote (Joe, 06:12): “We're facing a set of shocks to which central banks are not that well equipped to deal with...supply shocks to which monetary policy has little to do about.”
• Posture Remains Reactive:
  • Central banks are unlikely to move preemptively; they must watch for inflationary spillovers but are “not really the solution” for supply disruptions.

5. Monitoring Inflation: Supply Chain Is Key

• Wages Not the Only Metric:
  Dr. Boivin emphasizes that the impact of shocks must be traced through the supply chain, not just through wages or headline inflation numbers, especially if the crisis drags on.
  • Quote (Joe, 07:11): “With the nature of the shock we're facing...it's going to be about tracing out the effect on the supply chains of the shock.”

6. Uniqueness of American Finance and Innovation

• Scale and Monetization:
  The U.S. has unmatched capacity to take innovative ideas and commercialize them at global scale, an advantage even countries like Canada (where AI innovation flourished) do not match.
  • Quote (Joe, 08:19): “AI has been...invented really in Canada...But the monetization of it is a US story...the ability to commercialize and monetize ideas in the US is unparalleled.”
• Wall Street’s Juggernaut Effect:
  U.S. flexibility, market depth, and talent concentration explain its enduring financial leadership.

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Notable Quotes & Moments

• On Market Positioning:
  “There's no neutral position really in this, in this environment.” — Joe (03:42)
• On Systemic Risk:
  “It's hard for us to see systemic risk that creates these big, you know, where [shocks].” — Joe (05:00)
• On Central Banks & Supply Shocks:
  “We're facing a set of shocks to which central banks are not that well equipped to deal with.” — Joe (06:12)
• On U.S. Financial Innovation:
  “The ability to commercialize and monetize ideas in the US is unparalleled.” — Joe (08:19)

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Important Timestamps

• 02:00–02:40: Discussion on disconnect between tech earnings and geopolitical risks
• 02:56–03:42: What markets know about geopolitical risks; binary outcomes and positioning
• 05:00–05:49: Comparison to 2008 and commentary on current systemic financial risks
• 06:12–07:01: Central bank challenges in responding to supply-side shocks
• 07:11–07:48: Monitoring inflation through supply chains, not just wages
• 08:19: Insights on the unique commercialization power of U.S. finance

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Tone and Language

The episode blends measured, analytical commentary from Dr. Boivin with conversational, occasionally humorous interjections from the host. The language is straightforward but frequently relies on financial and geopolitical references familiar to Bloomberg's audience.

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Summary for Non-Listeners

Dr. Jean Boivin discusses how major geopolitical risks, particularly concerning Iran, are influencing markets and policymaker responses. While financial markets and monetary authorities face unprecedented supply-driven threats, Dr. Boivin asserts that today's financial system is more resilient than in prior crises. He warns that hedging by sitting out of markets may cause investors to miss out if geopolitical tensions ease. Ultimately, he emphasizes the unique power of the U.S. to scale and monetize financial innovation, a structural strength evident in both technology and finance sectors. The episode is rich in insights for anyone interested in the intersection of geopolitics, markets, and policy.

Transcript

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[Podcast Narrator]

Bloomberg Audio Studios podcasts

[Interviewer (Jumbo)]

Radio News so here's the way we roll folks. Jumbo van with US Global Head of Research BlackRock Investment Institute and the reason that he's here is because Cole Caulfield had 50 goals plus and Mr. Suzuki had I think his hundredth point last night for Las ab. And it's good to have you been up to Montreal to see the excitement.

[BlackRock Investment Institute Head of Research (Joe)]

I didn't get a chance. I was in Montreal a few weeks ago but I didn't get a chance to to see the habs. But it's great to see the outcome so far.

[Interviewer (Jumbo)]

I skim the politics this week in Quebec. There's a new leader of the very very far left Quebec party. The elements of Trudeau in Quebec, of Trudeau senior incorrect were beyond that to where it's much more nationwide Liberal Party affecting Quebec politics.

[BlackRock Investment Institute Head of Research (Joe)]

I don't know. I think the the election from the Madame Freshet now is, I think is is an interesting outcome. I'm not like a very closely following the Quebec politics to be honest. But yeah, I think there's going to be a change.

[Interviewer (Jumbo)]

It's like a generational change almost to me as well. Let's get to the moment at hand. You're writing for BlackRock with all your wonderful people as well. Is there a linkage of our geopolitical stress from the earnings juggernaut that is technology, the growth of earnings, the growth of revenues. Are they separate things or do they conflate together?

[BlackRock Investment Institute Head of Research (Joe)]

Yeah, no, I think there has been with the conflict we've seen in the Middle East a disconnect that has been appearing between what we think are very solid catalysts for for earnings and that have been materializing especially in the tech space and the derating we've seen in equities during that period. So that is understand in the context where there's significant worries about the knock on effect of a supply shocks and what that might be doing to the global economy. But to the extent that those get to be contained then I think that gap becomes an opportunity.

[Market Analyst]

You know, look, the markets are A forward looking animal. Right. And it makes you wonder what does the market know that we don't know when we're just an hours away from this blockade that, that Trump is threatening against the Strait of Hormuz and we just have WTI crude at about, about 104 a barrel.

[BlackRock Investment Institute Head of Research (Joe)]

Yeah, I don't think the, I don't think the market knows more than anybody actually. I don't know who knows anything about what's going to really happen. Even the key decision maker involved. I mean they're, they're, you know we're going to figure out a way out of it. But I do think that these are events that the markets cannot really price in one way or the other. I mean these are binary. If we're going to see a bad outcome coming then new market will react. But until then I think it's very costly to stay on the sideline for, for market participants and there is a credible likely scenario where things de escalate from here and I think that's, that's what the market's going to run.

[Market Analyst]

You saying staying on the sidelines, hanging on to dry powder is not the way to go right now?

[BlackRock Investment Institute Head of Research (Joe)]

I think, I think you know there's no neutral position really in this, in this environment. So you, you can decide to say I'm going to stay on the sideline but that could be the time where we get very significant return coming would be bad for our clients. Or you can decide to stay in and then if we do get a bad outcome then that's going to be also detract income from portfolios. I think at the moment it's a bigger call to say that we're going to see a very bad outcome that's going to sustain because I believe, I mean that's a strong belief. Right. Is that at the end of the day there are very strong economic incentives that will shape the, the behavior of the actors and everybody is affected by these strong economic incentive.

[Interviewer (Jumbo)]

Shut up with this folks. Global how to research BlackRock Investment Institute out of the University of Montreal and then he wandered to Princeton under a guy named Bernanke. Bernanke's heart and soul is the integrity of the financial system is the most important thing in crisis. That was a huge difference between Friedman's and Schwartz's work years ago. Do we have a solid financial system? To me it's looking pretty well jumbo that was worried about private credit creating the angst of previous eras.

[BlackRock Investment Institute Head of Research (Joe)]

I think we are in a very different situation than we have been. You know if we go in the most recent financial crisis in 2008. Right. So we have had major, you know, policy initiative that have been built over the many years. I think we've seen, you know, a different financial system and if you go back to the same kind of like source of crisis that we've seen back then, leverage in the system, hidden leverage and so on, it's difficult to put the finger on the same kind of phenomenon at play here. It doesn't mean. And every crisis becomes a different things. Right. So it doesn't mean that we won't discover that there was some excessive risk taking. But I think at this juncture it's hard for us to see systemic risk that creates these big, you know where

[Interviewer (Jumbo)]

I am on this in the huge body of the financial media, I call it the parlor game, want central banks and particularly the Fed to get out front to be ex ante. All of the history is an ex post study as well. They wait and they wait. How does that ex post study change given a war? I mean they just have to wait.

[BlackRock Investment Institute Head of Research (Joe)]

Yeah, I think in terms of, you know, we're actually more generally in this environment for central bank, I think we're facing a set of shocks. We call that an environment shaped by supply. We face a set of shocks to which central banks are not that well equipped to deal with. And as a result, you know, I think there's a good debate to know when central banks should lean against excessive risk taking in exenti as you say or not. But right now I think it's a different question. I mean these are shocks to which, you know, supply shocks to which monetary policy has little to do about. And so I think that reinforces the case to, you know, look at the inflationary consequences in response to that. But I don't think there's a financial objective.

[Interviewer (Jumbo)]

What's the, what's the choice set of data they look at to see if inflation shifts? Is it just as simple is wage and real wage growth?

[BlackRock Investment Institute Head of Research (Joe)]

No, I think in this, in this now with the nature of the shock we're freight we're facing, I think it's going to be about tracing out the effect on the supply chains of the shock. It's not about oil. I mean the oil you're going to

[Interviewer (Jumbo)]

go over to a supply side analysis and ignore the demand side challenges.

[BlackRock Investment Institute Head of Research (Joe)]

Well, I think in the scenario where we see some de escalation, I'm not expecting a lot of analysis to come through. I think it's going to be more of a we need to look through this. But if it is a world where the strait doesn't reopen soon and we have like, you know, months of that situation, then I think they'll be heavy into that supply chain analysis.

[Interviewer (Jumbo)]

A totally unfair question, but I have to ask it. Whaley would never answer it, but I'm going to go to you on this. Do we understand the profit making machine which is American Wall Street? Do we, do we as a. Is a public. The mass of JP Morgan, the sheer size, the brain power, the financial innovation that's out there. As a Canadian, do you. Do you think Americans understand the juggernaut which is American finance?

[BlackRock Investment Institute Head of Research (Joe)]

I think this is a manifestation of a large set of things, but I think it comes down to a market that is very flexible, where you have an ability to scale like you cannot scale in other countries. I mean one of the biggest challenge in Canada, AI I'll leave with maybe I'll go with this point. I mean AI has been imagine invented really in Canada. Two of the godfathers of AI are Canadians. But the monetization of it is a US story. And that speaks to your point, I think which is the ability to commercialize and monetize ideas in the US is on unparalleled and I think that explains why the financial system as a result is also, you know, as large as

[Interviewer (Jumbo)]

it is generous time. Thank you so much. Jumbo is a blacker. Thank you so much for coming in today. Head of all of their research effort and also we added him because I'm begging for Stanley cup tickets from them. I emailed Mr. Fink and got nowhere. So I went up to up the food chain. From Larry Fink to Joe, thank you so much. I'm looking for Tampa, Montreal, here.

[Podcast Narrator]

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