Freightwaves CEO Craig Fuller Talks State of Freight Industry

Summary

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Bloomberg Talks: Freightwaves CEO Craig Fuller on the State of the Freight Industry

Date: August 10, 2026
Host: Bloomberg
Guest: Craig Fuller (CEO, Freightwaves)
Main Theme: An in-depth look at current disruptions and trends in global logistics, including the fallout from geopolitical hotspots, innovations in shipping routes, the end of the freight recession, and the competitive landscape in domestic and international freight.

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Episode Overview

This episode features Freightwaves CEO Craig Fuller discussing the present dynamics and future prospects of the global freight industry. The conversation tackles the ongoing disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, emerging Arctic shipping routes, the ripple effects on industry costs and consumer prices, the apparent end of the freight recession, modal shifts in transport, and U.S. policy movement towards domestic maritime industry investment.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Strait of Hormuz Crisis and Rate Volatility

Timestamps: 00:30 – 01:33

• Shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains below pre-war levels, with ongoing geopolitical tension keeping rates elevated.
• Craig Fuller notes that shipping companies have responded dynamically, rerouting freight and adjusting prices to mirror risk and increased costs.
  • Quote: “That’s the great thing about logistics companies: they respond to these events, they price it accordingly. And we're seeing freight rerouted to account for this disruption, which is just one of many, many disruptions... over the last decade.” (01:00 – 01:19)
• Rising insurance costs are “priced in” to current market rates, as industry stakeholders have adapted to sustained, but not escalating, threats.
  • Quote: “...the sort of kinetic conflict is, we'll call it simmering a little bit but not explosive. And so ultimately insurance companies and ship owners understand the risks and that is priced into the market currently.” (01:33 – 02:02)

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2. Melting Arctic Ice—A New China-Europe Shipping Shortcut?

Timestamps: 02:02 – 03:24

• Chinese shipping companies are exploring Arctic routes as shrinking polar ice offers a passage cutting Asia-Europe transit from 40 to 20 days.
• Fuller places this development in geopolitical context, referencing Russian icebreaker capabilities and international interest.
  • Quote: “It’s the dream of the Chinese, the dream of the Russians to get access to the North Atlantic in the Arctic Ocean... avoids the bottleneck that is in the Middle East and allows them to route more direct traffic to North America.” (02:25 – 03:24)
• Strategic implications for Greenland and the U.S. are mentioned, underscoring how logistics and geopolitics intertwine.

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3. Freight Recession is Over—Industry Outlook and Consumer Impact

Timestamps: 03:24 – 04:50

• Port volumes and carrier rates are surging; energy surcharges remain widespread; supply constraints persist in trucking.
• Freight market sentiment is “incredibly bullish” with the freight recession officially “over since November” (2025).
• Fuller disputes the narrative that higher shipping rates significantly harm consumers:
  • Quote: “Transportation cost is about 3% of finished goods prices that consumers pay. So even if we see a doubling of freight rates, it’s still a marginal impact for consumers in terms of inflation.” (03:47 – 04:50)

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4. Will Higher Freight Costs Push Up Inflation?

Timestamps: 04:50 – 06:17

• Most retailers/manufacturers “will absorb those prices” to avoid losing sales, limiting retail inflation impacts.
• Retailers’ strong margins mean they can “eat it in some of their margins” without passing on significant costs.
• Key context: Container spot prices are at $7,000, still far below the $22,000 COVID-era peak.
  • Quote: “I wouldn’t take any of the higher freight rates as a concern. Remember we were at $22,000 in container prices, spot prices back during the peak of COVID and we’re only at $7,000 right now. So there’s a lot of room to go before... substantial inflation.” (04:58 – 06:17)

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5. Intra-Carrier Competition: The Rise of Rail in the U.S.

Timestamps: 06:17 – 07:40

• Amazon’s move into freight, FedEx’s recent spinoff, and investor reactions point to a shifting market.
• There is a notable “modal shift” from trucking to rail due to the high freight rate disparity (trucking rates are 34% higher than rail).
  • Quote: “Right now the spread between trucking rates and rail freight is 34%. That is near an all time high and therefore the railroads are the primary beneficiaries.” (06:31 – 07:40)

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6. U.S. Government Push for Domestic Maritime Capacity

Timestamps: 07:40 – 09:08

• Federal efforts to revive domestic marine industry via new bills and incentives, supporting startups and shipbuilding—recently noted is a project moving from California to Texas due to regulatory hurdles.
• Fuller emphasizes size and time scale: it will take “hundreds of billions of dollars” and significant time to restore U.S. marine capacity.
  • Quote: “These… if we’re going to build out a marine industry, we need a lot of money, hundreds of billions of dollars… and this is going to take many years.” (08:03 – 09:08)

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Memorable Quotes & Speaker Attributions

• Craig Fuller, on container rate inflation:
  “Even if we see a doubling of freight rates, it’s still a marginal impact for consumers... transportation cost is about 3% of finished goods prices.” (03:47)
• Craig Fuller, on shipping resilience:
  “That’s the great thing about logistics companies: they respond to these events...” (01:00)
• Craig Fuller, on Arctic routes:
  “It’s... the dream of the Chinese, the dream of the Russians to get access to the North Atlantic in the Arctic Ocean...” (02:25)
• Craig Fuller, on the scale of U.S. maritime investment:
  “If we’re going to build out a marine industry, we need a lot of money, hundreds of billions of dollars...” (08:03)

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Timeline of Important Segments

| Timestamp | Topic/Highlight | |------------|-----------------------------------------------------| | 00:30-01:33| Hormuz disruption, insurance cost adaptation | | 02:02-03:24| Arctic shipping route – strategy & climate change | | 03:24-04:50| End of freight recession – industry and consumer | | 04:50-06:17| Inflation risk, retailers absorb costs | | 06:17-07:40| Carrier wars, shift to rail, Amazon/FedEx dynamics | | 07:40-09:08| U.S. marine industry policy and investment needs |

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Tone & Style

Craig Fuller brings an upbeat, data-driven, and pragmatic tone—offering frank assessments and industry-insider context. The interviewer pushes for clarity on consumer impacts and policy direction, leading to a fluid but nuanced discussion with actionable insights for logistics professionals, investors, and policymakers.

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Summary prepared for listeners seeking an informed, quick guide to the evolving challenges and opportunities in the global freight industry as of August 2026.

Transcript

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[Interviewer]

Uncertainty over the straight of Hormuz is keeping pressure on global shipping with vessel traffic still below pre war levels. Let's ask Craig Fuller, CEO of Freight Waves, the company that provides real time data on freight demand, pricing and capacity across the global logistics market. Craig, I want to have a broader discussion with you. But first, any developments around this trade of Hormuz? Have we reached the cap beyond which, you know, hiring a ship just isn't doable because there is nowhere more for the price to go?

[Craig Fuller]

No, I mean ultimately the logistics market is responding to this. Higher prices for containers, higher prices for shipping. But that's the great thing about logistics companies is they respond to these events, they price it accordingly. And we're seeing freight rerouted to account for this disruption, which is just one of many, many disruptions that we've had over the last, you know, inevitably over the last decade.

[Interviewer]

What about insurance costs? Do they continue to rise? Do we have any kind of fall off in insurance costs even when we got the memo random of understanding?

[Craig Fuller]

Well, I think ultimately a lot of the costs, the insurance cost is priced in to the current conditions. While there are some attacks on civilian vessels, I think largely the sort of kinetic conflict is, we'll call it simmering a little bit but not explosive. And so ultimately insurance companies and ship owners have understand the risks and that is priced into the market currently.

[Interviewer]

Craig, I want your thoughts as well on this new Arctic route that's being reported on today. So apparently a China shipping company is going through the Arctic because polar ice caps melting allow it to traverse from Asia to Europe in 20 days as opposed to the regular 40 days it takes generally. Is this a route that could take off and help other shipping companies avoid these dangerous choke points?

[Craig Fuller]

Yeah, I mean this has been something that's been talked about for at least the last decade. The fact that the polar ice caps are melting which provide new sea lanes, Russia has, has some, some break some icebreakers to be able to clear the lanes. This is one of the reasons that Donald Trump has wanted Greenland is because ultimately if you're coming across the Arctic, you're going to pass Greenland and it provides a much from a strategic standpoint, provides A really interesting sort of outcome, but this is really a continuation, something that shouldn't be a surprise to anybody because it's something we've been watching and monitoring for the past at least aid and certainly the dream of the Chinese, the dream of the Russians to get access to the North Atlantic because in the Arctic Ocean, because ultimately this provides, you know, avoids the bottleneck that is in the Middle east and allows them to route more direct traffic to North America.

[Interviewer]

Craig, Just more broadly, port volumes are surging. Ocean carrier rates obviously have gone through the roof and they're passing on those costs. Energy surcharges have been very, very widespread and are getting more widespread. Truck manufacturing is tightening. All of this is a negative for the consumer and for those that are importing. But it's great news for the freight industry. Right? Is, is the freight recession definitively a thing of the past?

[Craig Fuller]

Oh, the freight recession has been over since November and everybody celebrating because it's been a miserable existence. Ocean container Lines, they were out of a recession pretty quickly. They had a, you know, but eight month recession. But trucking has been in a, was in a recession really since 20 and it ended in November of this past year of 25. And so everyone feels relief. I would, I would dispute your comment about it. Bad for the consumer because ultimately when freight's moving, that is good for consumers. I mean transportation cost is about 3% of finished goods prices that consumers pay. So even if we see a doubling of freight rates, it's still a marginal impact for consumers in terms of inflation. So ultimately things are moving. The industry is feeling incredibly bullish and we're seeing volumes pick up on the international container market as well as in domestic trucking and rail. It's up and to the right for the freight industry. And I think that tells us a lot about consumer activity, but more importantly, it tells us a lot about industrial activity.

[Interviewer]

Just on that point, everything I just mentioned, do they only add up to incremental costs for the consumer? Is this not significant inflation push at all then?

[Craig Fuller]

It's not a huge impact to inflation. Ultimately retailers will absorb those prices. The biggest risk to retailers and really manufacturers is losing sales. So they will pay the higher freight rates and ultimately eat it in some of their margins. But look, we've seen in the past earnings, this past earnings cycle that corporate profits are at record highs. So there is some ability for retailers and manufacturers to absorb higher freight rates. Ultimately they want to get their products into the country, they want to get their products moving to end consumers. So they'll pay the higher rates and ultimately consumers are going to see a marginal impact, not anything to worry about. What we worry about more about is demand erosion which right now we're seeing the opposite. We're seeing particularly the industrial side. Things pick up and consumer activity looks pretty strong. Consumer volumes, you can look at the container lines. The reason the ports are doing so well is because consumers are buying goods and retailers are feeling much more confident about consumer activity, which I think is very strong. So I wouldn't, well, I wouldn't take any of the higher freight rates as a concern. Remember we were at $22,000 in container prices, spot prices back during the peak of COVID and we're only at $7,000 right now. So there's a lot of room to go before I think there'll be substantial inflation.

[Interviewer]

So give us an update then on the intra freight carrier wars. Right, so we have FedEx Freight down more than 4% since its spin off back in May partially because Amazon has entered the scene. What's going on with terrain grab? Who's winning?

[Craig Fuller]

Yeah, I mean ultimately Amazon. I mean it's sort of the worst kept secret. Amazon was known to get into it. FedEx spun it off. When it spun off is really a reflection of just how. I mean it spun off at a very high valuation. It's called off a bit from where the original spin off was. There's been a little bit of just. I think investors have rallied the transports for the last seven, eight months and really cooling off period. A little bit of profit taking. And I think everybody's wanting to see the second half and get confirmation that things are continuing to be bullish and we're continuing to see things ramp. That is our, our channel checks have shown that there's been a bit of modal shift. We're seeing freight move off of trucking slightly into intermodal, which is by rail simply because there's been a lot of movement in freight rates in trucking and so that we're seeing things put onto the railroads. And right now the spread between trucking rates and rail freight is 34%. That is near an all time high and therefore the railroads are the primary beneficiaries and companies like JB Hunt and Hub Group that are public are really picking up a lot of share right now.

[Interviewer]

Wow, interesting. Finally Craig, and we don't have much time left but you have advocated in the past for a domestic marine industry. Right. To ensure security and supply chains and so on. Are you hearing anything about the administration potentially taking stakes in any businesses surrounding supply chains, the network marine industry, trucking industry or anything like that. Any whisperings at all in the community?

[Craig Fuller]

Well, I mean, look, I don't think the administration is going to take any trucking investments. It's the most fragmented market. But when we talk about maritime, there is certainly some different bills, executive orders that have tried to encourage maritime investment. There was a story not too long ago about a startup that's going to build ships, commercial ships, that was originally supposed to go in California, but they moved it to Texas because of some issues with local municipalities and some, some things that they were not willing to do in California. Not a shock. And they moved it to South Texas. So I do think there's a movement and investment and certainly administration has been very public about wanting more marine investments, is providing incentives. But these, you know, if we're going to build out a marine industry, we're talking, we need a lot of money, hundreds of billions of dollars to really restore marine investments in the United States. And this is going to take many years. So a lot of the movement is very slow, it feels like, from my perspective. But it's certainly moving in the right direction. But it's going to take a lot more than where we see today.

[Interviewer]

All right, Craig, always a pleasure to talk to you. That is Craig Fuller, CEO of Freightways.

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