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Siobhan Halvoland, thank you so much for joining me. I want to get in straight away to a conversation around what the shape of the next UK government might look like. How much time does Andy Burnham have to turn the tide, do you think? And to help UK businesses?
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B
Well, good morning. Andy Burnham has what, two and a half years to the next general election? So he has a very short amount of time to turn the tide. He, you know, whoever comes into Downing street next is going to face the same challenges that we are currently looking at. And we. What he needs to have laser focus on is delivering economic growth. And why is that the case? Because growing businesses mean more jobs, which means more taxes back to the Chancellor, which means more money to pay for our teachers and nurses. Right. The fiscal, tight fiscal situation that government is in. So that needs to be his number one priority.
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C
Okay. When Keir Sama came into government, we gave him little bit, strangely, 100 days. I was based on the US system. Does Burnham get that much time this time around?
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B
I think so. I think that's only 100 days is probably only fair. You know, we are all, of course, still waiting to see Andy Burnham lay out his economic strategy. We, of course, have been delighted to advise him on what we think is going on. You know, at the Chambers. I have the delight of traveling the country, meeting businesses with week in, a week out. And they all tell me the same thing, which is at the moment, they are really, really struggling. You know, successive governments have added more and more costs to business. We estimate there's been a 70% increase in cost to business over 10 years. You know, more recently we've seen increases national insurance, the minimum wage has gone up 45% in the last five years. It is really hard. And while we are shackling that ambition with that tsunami of costs, we are not going to see growth. So, a, the government needs to look very quickly at how we can relieve some of that. But what I'm going to talk about today at our global conference where we have 700 businesses in the QE2 centre, is actually there are some levers that government need to pull very quickly around increasing trade, helping SME supply chains and really helping UK PLC adopt a AI as it's coming down the track.
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C
Okay. Can we be honest about how bad it was for Business under K. Starmer, tanking confidence, dismal growth, raising taxes. The Starmer government was pretty bad, wasn't it for British business? Is that how you see it?
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B
The gov, the current government, are they now outgoing government? Look, had some difficult, they had some difficult geopolitical headwinds adapt to. They did some good things but they did some things that really were hard for business. So the national insurance increase, we expected an increase but not as much as that and not with increasing the threshold. The idea was of course that then the government were going to do some other things to help business. So we did see some great stuff on more infrastructure being signed off. You know, expansion of Heathrow, Gatwick, Northern Powerhouse rail, new nuclear, etc. And that's really good for local supply chains. We saw free trade agreements being being signed, you know, we need to make those useful for business. But the additional taxes along with global tariffs, etc. Businesses haven't yet managed to recover from that. And as I said, successive governments have added costs to business and we, we really feel like we're at breaking point.
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C
At breaking point. Okay, what happens if an incoming administration, it seems highly likely that it will be led by Andy Burnham. What happens if that incoming UK government become even more left wing than what we've seen before? Would that be worse?
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B
What do you mean by left wing?
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C
Well in terms of, you know, the possibility of higher taxes for higher spending. Would the BCC for example be in favour of a major spending plan for UK infrastructure even if that means borrowing more?
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B
So any new government has to have economic growth as its number one focus. Literally increasing taxes for business will be a road to ruin. There is absolutely no way that increasing tax and business is going to get us anywhere near economic growth and we are just going to spiral down more. Lack of confidence from business, more holding onto their money, lack of investment. It is a vicious circle. So we absolutely have to see no new tax for business. On the upside there are a huge number of opportunities. So we have fantastic businesses, entrepreneurial, can do solution orientated. They want to be let go to drive economic growth. They want opportunities for infrastructure, for example. So if you look at Sizewell Sea nuclear power build in Suffolk, the chamber helped build a supply chain there. They've put 1.4 billion into local businesses. They through size World project. That's incredible for the local economy. You know we, we, we can see more of that across the country. If we help businesses trade more around the world, that's actually the quickest way to grow the economy. There are huge Opportunities for UK plc. Our businesses are amazing. They just need to be released to make the most of that ambition.
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C
Okay. It's no secret that your president of the BCC is Andy Haldane, that he is advising the Burnham team alongside others, including Jim o', Neill. That's going to put particular focus, I think, on what and has to say at your conference, you know, in a few hours time, in terms of that advice, no new taxes and all the other bits of advice that, to be honest, you've given many times before to governments. Is it going to be more clearly heard and actually adopted in your view?
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B
Well, I think the challenges that these countries have are having are pretty clear. And our political turmoil is a reflection of what is working and not working. So I think the new government would be very wise to listen to the great advice of people like Andy Haldane, obviously a great economic mind. As the chambers of commerce, we work with politicians of all colors to give them advice on how to help grow the economy, what businesses need to see. So we are looking forward to working with whoever's in the chair at number 10, because the same issues are going to be there for the next person coming in.
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C
Okay. Who do you think your members would want to see as Chancellor? Are they as anti Ed Miliband as the City of London seems to be?
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B
So, for us, it's not about personalities. You know, Andy Burnham will choose his Cabinet. It's about policies and it's about what those people do in those roles. And it's about ensuring that across government that everybody is focused on the same thing. You know, we have seen some really good stuff in this government. We've also seen some difficult parts. We've got the Employment Rights act still coming down the track. We have to go to make sure that works for business. At the moment, the government themselves suggests that's a 1 billion pound extra price tag for business. So we need to make sure that doesn't hobble growth. So whoever's in that role, they just need to be clear on what we need to deliver for the country.
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C
Yeah. I mean, the pick, though, of the individual chancellor and who that is obviously hugely important as a signal for what the government is going to look like in terms of the shape of its policies. Do you think that if it is Andy Burnham who leads the government, do you think he's going to lower costs for businesses?
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I think if you look at what Andy Burnham's done in his role in Manchester, what you'll see is a really strong partnership between the public sector and the Private sector. So real public, private partnership and growing the city and getting things done. Because I think we've, you know, ideas are great but actually we're really in a place now we've got to deliver and you know, structures like the Chambers of Commerce that Andy Burnham has worked with in Manchester, these are the infrastructure we have to make this stuff happen. So whoever he picks as Chancellor and Business Secretary and the rest of his cabinet, you know, our message to them is work with us, work in partnership with us. You can see it's worked in Manchester. We can help deliver this much more quickly. In a way you need.
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C
You have a lot of the political parties, all the major political parties joining at your conference. Polanski, Jenrick, Stride, Davy. Are any of them offering more realistic policy proposals? I say realistic because the recent criticism at previous elections has been that parties are not grappling with the realities of Britain's economic situation. Do you think that in this current climate there are policies in any of those other political parties that have great appeal with your business members?
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B
Well, having all five political parties with us today, Caroline, is the first time we've done this and I think it's probably the first time for, for a major business conference. And we've done this because it reflects, you know, multi party politics in the UK now. And actually it's going to be, it's obviously interesting for those people to hear from the business in the room, but what the reason we've invited them is so they can lay out what their business friendly policies are going to be, they can lay out what they are going to do to drive the economy because we haven't heard from most of them for some time in that sort of really clear, laid out way. So I'm really looking forward to hearing from them all.
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C
How much do you think social media is reshaping business confidence in Britain?
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B
Oh, that's a good question. Not something we necessarily talk to our members about a great deal. But of course from a personal and business point of view, we are all using that, we're using that to communicate what we do as businesses, to grow our businesses, marketing, sales, etc. I mean it's, I mean you and I have been around a while, so it's massively changed. You know, this is the second time around with AI. We talked a lot to our businesses about how they're adopting. I think that we are seeing a huge increase in adoption but it's a lot more still about helping me write my emails and it is re engineering my business processes and there's a huge productivity gain if we can get this right for UK plc. So that's really where we're helping them focus at the moment.
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C
I wanted to ask you about social media because you've talked a lot about confidence and the main issue as you see it, is that Britain needs to be more confident. Businesses want more confidence and that is the thing that then unlocks investment and economic growth. And so, you know, when you see, as the Labour of London, Sadiq Khan has said, you know, targeted social media sort of campaigns against, for example, cities like London, you know, really talking down London and the UK as a place to live, those sorts of social media driven issues which maybe don't, a lot of people feel don't reflect the reality. I suppose that's what I'm asking, that kind of criticism, that talking down of the uk, whether that's a worry for you, confidence wise.
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So it is a worry. And actually when we travel around the world, we do hear that people do have, I have been asked about it. And hence we feed that back to the London Chamber, to the Mayor and so on. And we're really delighted to see him standing up and stepping out and being loud and proud for London as we are for London and the whole of the UK when we travel around the world. And I think those on the right side of facts need to be a lot louder and prouder on social media too. But I would say that brand Britain is still very strong around the world. So when I turn up in different places, people are really delighted to see Team UK there. I think that's a really positive for UK business and we need to keep making the most of that apprenticeships.
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C
A lot has been talked about the high number of people who are young people who are out of work, not in trade training, you know, the acronym NEEDS in the uk. Andy Burnham was again talking about apprenticeships and it needs to guarantee young people work and training in the UK just in the last few days. How is it possible for government to really deliver on if there is a kind of bigger guarantee for apprenticeships? How can government deliver on that?
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Well, government can't deliver on it on their own. They have to deliver it in partnership with business. And businesses really want to employ young people. They really do. They want to employ young people from their community. I mean the vast majority of our businesses are small and medium sized businesses and they that that part of their places. But it's become increasingly difficult. You know, if you think about our kids at school, you know, our schools are measured by Ofsted measures, not A single one of those measures is about work readiness. We are not producing young people who are coming out of school ready for the workplace. So businesses tell us they're more than happy to train young people on the actual hard skills, but they're really struggling to find young people who have the soft skills ready to go into the workplace. So we need to do a lot more with our educators to make sure that we're getting young people ready for the workplace. But I think the government has produced, we've got the new youth Guarantee scheme coming online which is helping young people who've been out for the workplace for a while to get back in in a sort of low risk way. And government subsidizing some of their wages. Those are good things. Looks a bit like Kickstart, if you remember that from COVID times. So what I know to be true is businesses absolutely want to employ those young people. They need the wraparound care to help them get into work, settle in, you know, know it's right for them. And they, and they will work for really closely with their local authorities and central government as we will to make that happen.
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C
What do your members think about potentially? Well, it will be probably a seventh. What do you think? What do your members think about a seventh UK prime minister in 10 years? You know, we're thinking also about the anniversary of Brexit. How disappointed, frustrated, hopeful are they?
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B
So I've been in this job running the British Chambers of Commerce for five years this month and with a new Prime Minister next month, thanks very much. It'll be my fifth Prime Minister in five. It's not a way to, it's certainly, it's not a way to run a country and it's certainly not a way to run a business. If you had that many CEOs in that many years, you'd be out of your business. Will be, will be out, would be out of business. So you know what business want, how we work, we work on long term horizons, we work on plans, we work on 5, 10 year strategies and that's the sort of horizon you need to have the confidence to invest and know that the political landscape, the regulatory landscape, the costs landscape, the planning laws, you pick it will be what you need for that investment. So it's time for some political stability.
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C
Who is to blame for that?
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B
That's quite hard, that's quite, that's quite hard to know, I would say. I mean since Brexit, I guess we haven't really been able to work out, you know, the political parties haven't been able to find somebody who can bring everyone together. I mean, we, you know, general election was two years ago, is it next week? And I think we all, you know, we worked really closely with the Labour party. We had 82 of our recommendations go into their manifesto. What's happened with politics as getting a new prime minister is, you know, was driven by the party and obviously by the local elections. But we as a country don't vote in prime ministers, do we? We vote in the party. We vote in the manifesto of that party. So, you know, really, it's down to that party to deliver that manifesto each time.
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