Instant Reaction: Intel's Revenue Shatters Wall Street Estimates

Summary

Podcast Summary: Bloomberg Tech

Episode: Instant Reaction – Intel’s Revenue Shatters Wall Street Estimates

Date: July 23, 2026
Host: Ed Ludlow
Guests: Mandeep Singh (Bloomberg Intelligence), Ian King (Bloomberg Tech Contributor)

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Overview

This Bloomberg Tech episode delivers instant reaction and in-depth analysis to Intel’s quarterly earnings, which significantly exceeded Wall Street expectations. The discussion centers on Intel’s resurgence, especially in the data center CPU market, and the sustainability of this growth amid fierce competition and sector transformation by AI demands. The episode features live insights from Bloomberg’s tech research head Mandeep Singh, sector journalist Ian King, and host Ed Ludlow, plus commentary on broader tech market trends, capital expenditure (CapEx) cycles, and competitive positioning.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Intel’s Surprising Quarter and Data Center Boom

• Intel’s Performance:
  • Intel delivered a "surprisingly strong revenue forecast," with data center chip sales soaring by 59%, more than doubling the company’s overall growth rate.
    • Quote: “Sales in that segment soared 59% last quarter, more than double the pace of intel's overall right now.” – Ian King (02:29)
• Drivers:
  • Surge in data center demand for CPUs, driven by AI adoption and the need to refresh enterprise servers.

2. Shift in Competitive Dynamics

• CPU as a Commodity:
  • Despite the blowout results, Intel’s historical CPU monopoly is gone. Competitors like Nvidia, AMD, and Google are all producing or bundling CPUs, blurring lines between components and systems.
    • Quote: “Intel is not a monopoly that it used to be. And that's where … expectations going in the quarter were really low. So they did beat that.” – Mandeep Singh (03:15)
• System-Level Selling vs. Components:
  • Major players now sell full system solutions (CPU, GPU, accelerators, networking)—unlike Intel, which mostly provides standalone chips.
    • Quote: “Intel is not selling you a system, they're just selling you a chip.” – Mandeep Singh (04:33)

3. Sustainability and Risks of Intel’s Growth

• Recovery from Underperformance:
  • Intel has lagged for 5-6 years; this rebound is from a low base. Sustainability beyond the latest quarter is uncertain, especially with the shift toward AI-focused, “systems” data centers.
    • Quote: “I'm not ready to put intel in that basket of companies that have systems opportunities, but they need to get there.” – Mandeep Singh (05:27)
• Traditional vs. AI Data Centers:
  • For traditional data centers, Intel CPUs are still the default for server upgrades. The biggest threat comes in AI-focused data centers, where bundled systems from Nvidia and others dominate.

4. Stock Market Reaction and CapEx Themes

• Stock Performance:
  • Intel's stock, despite being one of 2026 S&P 500’s best performers, saw recent volatility—a sharp rise followed by correction.
    • Quote: “This was the third best performing stock in the S&P 500 in the first half of the year. But this month it's just gotten crushed.” – Ian King (09:17)
• CapEx Cycle:
  • Major hyperscalers (Google, Amazon, Microsoft) are ramping capital investment massively, benefiting chip suppliers like Intel. Still, increases in CapEx can spook the street about mega-cap tech companies overextending.
  • The analogy with oil/energy boom-and-bust cycles was discussed, raising the specter of future regulation.

5. Intel’s Supply Chain and Production Questions

• Foundry Issues:
  • Despite possessing world-class fabrication capacity, Intel struggles to meet surging demand. This apparent mismatch prompts skepticism about execution.
    • Quote: “If they're complaining about supply, to me, that's surprising. You've got all the fabs … Why can't you ramp them up faster?” – Mandeep Singh (13:31)
• Management’s Cautious Approach:
  • CEO Lip Bhutan reportedly takes a cautious attitude toward expanding CapEx, only committing to spending against confirmed demand.

6. Customer Visibility and Long-Term Agreements (LTAs)

• Lack of Specifics:
  • Intel claims many new long-term agreements, but has not named major tech customers, nor provided backlog or pricing visibility—key for analysts and investors.
    • Quote: “If intel really has that sort of visibility with their customers, the LTA is, then they should give a backlog number so that street can model that.” – Mandeep Singh (18:14)

7. Industry Cyclicality and Future Prospects

• Sector Cyclicality:
  • Intel and other chipmakers have suffered from past over-investment cycles. Confidence in sustainable growth is tentative, despite massive demand.
• Looking Ahead:
  • Intel’s next steps will require moving beyond CPUs to integrated systems, addressing execution issues, and providing more transparency to investors.

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Intel’s Comeback:
  “They obviously lost the plot, but now they seem to be coming back … they did beat [expectations].” – Mandeep Singh (03:15)
• On Competitive Landscape:
  “Intel is not a monopoly that it used to be … everyone else is also making CPUs.” – Mandeep Singh (03:31)
• On System Solutions:
  “Intel is not selling you a system, they're just selling you a chip.” – Mandeep Singh (04:33)
• On CapEx Risk:
  “The government may decide these two companies are too powerful in terms of the models they have developed. … that's a big risk when it comes to this capex.” – Mandeep Singh (11:44)
• On Execution Concerns:
  “A quarter ago … they had not been doing a good job, like they were not very good at building their own products.” – Ed Ludlow (14:14)
• On Investor Needs:
  “If Intel really has that sort of visibility … then they should give a backlog number so that street can model that.” – Mandeep Singh (18:14)

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Key Timestamps

• 02:29 – Ian King outlines revenue and data center boom
• 03:15 – 04:51 – Mandeep Singh on Intel’s strengths and competitive threats
• 07:00 – 08:00 – Traditional vs. AI data centers; AMD as main CPU competitor
• 09:17 – Marked stock volatility and market reaction
• 10:27 – 11:44 – Alphabet’s CapEx increase, sector analogies to energy
• 13:31 – Mandeep flags supply/manufacturing execution questions
• 14:14 – Ed Ludlow relays CEO’s past admissions and CapEx strategy
• 18:14 – Mandeep calls for more customer visibility and disclosure

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Conclusion

The panel agrees that Intel’s blowout quarter is a reversal from years of underperformance, fueled by surging cloud and AI compute spending. However, all voices caution that the sustainability of growth is uncertain without system-level innovation and greater transparency on customer agreements. The episode provides a deep dive into semiconductor market pressures, industry transformation, and the challenges facing Intel as it tries to reclaim lost ground.

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Transcript

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[Bloomberg Host]

Bloomberg Audio Studios Podcasts Radio News

[Mandeep Singh]

this is a breaking news update from Bloomberg. Instant reaction and analysis from our 3,000 journalists and analysts analysts around the world.

[Ian King]

Here's how in King Ian King, who's been covering this company and this sector for many years, put it intel delivered a surprisingly strong revenue forecast for the current period, indicating that a surge in data center spending is helping fuel the chip makers turnaround. The outlook underscores Intel's gains with data center customers, which are clamoring for chips to Satisfy demand for AI computing sales in that segment soared 59% last quarter, more than double the pace of Intel's overall right now.

[Bloomberg Host]

Chief Executive Officer Liputin saying the CPU is taking off in data centers. All right, let's get to it. Back with us is of course Mandeep Singh with our Bloomberg intelligence team. He oversees tech research here, global tech research for our intelligence team. This looks like a really strong report.

[Mandeep Singh]

It is. And it's led by something we all expected. Data centers. You know, that's where you are seeing the demand. We saw that in Google's results yesterday. And look, the CPU side is something that intel has had a monopoly over the years. They obviously lost the plot, but now they seem to be coming back. The only thing I'm not very sure about is how it translates into sustainable demand because everyone else is also making CPUs, whether it's Nvidia, whether it's Google, you know, even the likes of AMD's, they're all focused on CPU. So intel is not a monopoly that it used to be. And that's where the sustain like expectations going in the quarter were really low. So they did beat that.

[Ian King]

So then why are, why are people buying intels rather than AMDs or Nvidias? Like what if this is, is it a commodity, this part of the business?

[Mandeep Singh]

So if you're just looking for a cpu, intel still has the foundry where they make the most CPUs and it makes sense for anybody to go to Intel. If you're looking for systems, which is what Google said, they're selling TPU systems now.

[Bloomberg Host]

Right?

[Mandeep Singh]

A TPU system has got an accelerator, it's got cpu, it's got networking, it's got everything. That's what all these companies are doing with their data centers now. They're selling a complete system where CPU is one of the building blocks. Intel is not selling you a system, they're just selling you a chip.

[Bloomberg Host]

Kind of says to me, not a great business plan, is it? Like, so how do you make sense

[Mandeep Singh]

whether or not I think it's too early to compare intel to the likes of Nvidia or you know, what Google told us with their TPU systems, it's still a very early stage opportunity for intel on the data center side, okay, again, expectations were really rock bottom. So they came out, they be that data center number by 700 million. Great. But if I look at the sustainability of what Google plans to do or what Nvidia plans to do, intel is not in that category yet. And that's where you need for them to execute much Better on the data center side in terms of having a gpu, having more on the networking side, having a systems play, which is what we are hearing from amd, by the way. That's what AMD is after. That's what Broadcom is after. So I'm not ready to put intel in that basket of companies that have systems opportunities, but they need to get there. I think it's a big challenge. I mean, you have to remember intel underperformed for a period of 5, 6 years where they just had things going down. So for them to come back, it's going to take a while. I mean, the foundry side is where they could get help from the US Government stakeholders and they could land more customers in terms of foundry usage. But in terms of, again, comparing them to someone like Nvidia, we are far off from that.

[Ian King]

Should we Compare them to Nvidia?

[Mandeep Singh]

I mean, Nvidia is making their own CPUs. And Nvidia will tell you they already generate up to $20 billion by selling CPUs as part of their system. So intel has. Nvidia has already surpassed intel in terms of the CPU side of that equation.

[Bloomberg Host]

So what to Tim's question or Tim's point, Mandeep, what is again the role of intel in the future in the world of semiconductors? There's still value there, there's still a good business there.

[Mandeep Singh]

Yeah. So think of it as traditional data centers versus AI data centers. For all the traditional data centers, intel is great because they have those servers that companies were using that they need to refresh. And now intel has the ability to give them the latest servers that, by the way, you need latest CPU servers to run these agent tech workloads. So when you deploy AI, so far it was just training for inferencing. You need CPUs, and that's where if an enterprise is looking to refresh their old servers, they'll go for Intel. They won't buy Nvidia systems because you don't need to do that for your traditional data centers. You buy Nvidia systems for your AI data centers, which need a lot more power, which have different specs altogether.

[Bloomberg Host]

So who's their biggest competitor then in that particular universe?

[Mandeep Singh]

Amd.

[Bloomberg Host]

Amd?

[Mandeep Singh]

Yeah.

[Bloomberg Host]

Okay.

[Mandeep Singh]

But AMD just talked about how they are focused on that systems opportunity too. So everyone realizes the larger opportunity is AI data centers. It's not your traditional data centers. So that's where the sustainability of this growth, I mean, we are coming off a very low base.

[Bloomberg Host]

Right.

[Mandeep Singh]

So, yeah, they grew, you know, whatever 60%, that's great. But can you sustain 80% type growth that Nvidia has shown they can over a period of time? And that's the real question here.

[Bloomberg Host]

So this business that seems to be kind of unique to intel for those who are kind of doing upgrades right on their data centers for inferencing, I mean, at some point does that go away and people are more focused on the bigger data centers or. No companies are going to need it.

[Mandeep Singh]

You need more compute. The question is, how much is Nvidia going to sell in terms of CPUs versus how much opportunity is left for intel as a standalone CPU provider? Because remember, Nvidia is bundling everything. Google GPUs are bundling everything and saying CPUs are just one component of agent workloads.

[Ed Ludlow]

Yeah.

[Mandeep Singh]

So why would enterprises keep buying from intel where they have to get other components from other providers?

[Ian King]

The stock is, is, is up. I mean this was the best before the, sorry, the third best performing stock in the S&P 500 in the first half of the year. But this month it's just gotten crushed. And part of that has had to do with just how, how much it's run high. I mean this was a stock that was on June 22nd at $141 per share. Now it's at about $100 a share as of the close. If you take into account the move higher, right now it's at about $111 per share. What was the weakness this month that, that had investors thinking that okay, the bar is actually pretty low for this report expectations.

[Mandeep Singh]

I mean overall semis as a complex I think corrected people, took a lot of profits. We even saw the memory names go down. So I don't think there was anything unique over there. But with that being said, things have come back on the semi side very quickly. It feels like we had somewhat of a correction and then things rebounded fairly quickly. And the Google report with them raising capex. I'm expecting every hyperscaler will raise capex. Well, guess what, all the semiconductor names will catch a bit because of the CapEx increases.

[Ian King]

Okay, you mentioned Alphabet and we're supposed to be talking about intel right now, but you mentioned Alphabet, so we'll go there. Alphabet just got crushed today. Why?

[Mandeep Singh]

Because they're raising their capex.

[Ian King]

But raising capex is good.

[Mandeep Singh]

It's good for the semiconductor companies, not for someone like Alphabet. Right.

[Ian King]

In the past it's sometimes been good for a company like Alphabet because it indicates demand and you know, when they spend that money they will to build infrastructure. That infrastructure will be used and generate

[Mandeep Singh]

revenue and they are showing that in their cloud segment. We talked about how fast it's growing, 82%. But market will always get nervous when you are talking these big numbers. I mean we are talking about trillion dollars in capex by these five big hyperscalers next year. That's the 2027 consensus number, can we say.

[Bloomberg Host]

Because I think people think about the spend on AI and the build kind of akin to building out, you know, energy markets. Right. It's, it's expensive to do this stuff and you have to think about the longer term trends. But have the tech sector been burned enough like the oil price patch? Yeah, I mean semiconductors certainly have seen

[Mandeep Singh]

the booms and busts they have. And I mean you drew the comparison to the energy markets and the oil market. Those are regulated companies. Imagine after all this spend.

[Bloomberg Host]

Yeah.

[Mandeep Singh]

If these companies became regulated and guess what? You can't really maximize your profits anymore. That would be very interesting. You know, so there's always that risk with these large models. The government may decide these two companies are too powerful in terms of the models they have developed. They need to, you know, limit their hold and that's a big risk when it comes to this capex.

[Bloomberg Host]

We already have a government that's looking at the power usage and thinking about what their responsibility is. Right. Some of the tech companies in terms of data centers, I want to bring

[Ian King]

in Ed Ludlow, the host of Bloomberg Tech. He's standing by in San Francisco. Ed, you spoke to Dave Zisner, that Intel cfo. You also spoke to Lip Bhutan, the CEO of intel along with Ian King and some reporting on the terminal. What did you learn from them in their commentary that that sort of adds to what we heard in terms of numbers from this quarter.

[Ed Ludlow]

Yeah, I mean this is a CPU story. Right. There's just very high data center demand for cpu. And that is the game that intel is in. It's the part of the AI story that they have been able to get and hold on to. And you know, right now intel is in a position where it's doing everything it can to improve its production. You know, they are in a place where demand for their CPUs in the data center server context is outpacing their improving supply. So they're doing a better job, but they're still leaving a bit of money on the table because they just cannot meet 100% of the orders that are being placed. That is, as Lit Boo put it, a good problem to have. But right now, if you look at the aftermarket trade, completely in line, what Mandeep's been outlining as well, it is the capital expenditure story, once again, that's kind of moving the needle here.

[Bloomberg Host]

Because people have to buy and they have to buy from intel, is that it?

[Mandeep Singh]

But intel has the foundry capacity to produce that. So if they're complaining about supply, to me, that's surprising. You've got all the fabs, you're not going to TSMC to make those CPUs. Right? So I'm a little surprised there.

[Bloomberg Host]

What would be the question then that you would be asking Lipo, like, why

[Mandeep Singh]

is there VFR shortages for your own CPUs? Like, you have the foundries that are based here in the us. Why can't you ramp them up faster to meet the demand that you see?

[Bloomberg Host]

What?

[Ian King]

Do it. Just ramp it up.

[Ed Ludlow]

Come on.

[Bloomberg Host]

And Ludlow, though, you know, as we continue to go through these numbers, what else is jumping out for you?

[Ed Ludlow]

Yeah, well, just on Mandeep's point, I think, you know, a quarter ago when I spoke to Lip on the phone, he was very honest that they had not been doing a good job, like they were not very good at building their own products. And that is a problem. And I think what he's saying now is that's getting better, they are improving their own supply, but they're not yet that they, you know, it's a process. I think the other thing as well, you know, with intel, you know, the foundry business, we still don't have anything concrete on which technology companies around the world are customers of intel for Foundry and their latest processes. But if you think about the capex guide to what Dave's into, the CFO told me is that capex this year will now be higher, about $20 billion. The previous guide was about 18, and it would also represent year on year capex growth. But he also absolutely underscored that Lip Bhutan is a very cautious guy. He does not deploy capital and improve or increase capex unless he's sure he's going to get a return on it. And so that's what they're trying to argue for now, that they, they see demand enough where they're willing to spend on the tooling side specifically, not the space side, to, to increase that capacity because they think they have the customer, customer demand.

[Ian King]

But, but Mandeep, you know, as, as Ian King has reminded us over and over again, this stuff can be cyclical and intel has learned the hard way that the investments don't always pay off, do they? Have a. Do they have to tell investors a different story? That this, this time we know that where we're spending the money is the right place to spend the money?

[Mandeep Singh]

I mean right now I think.

[Ian King]

Or is everybody's just throwing money at everything and it's fine.

[Mandeep Singh]

Everyone realizes the demand is huge. And you know, if there's one common thread across all the narratives we hear is that demand far outstrips supply. So why would you not be doubling down at this time, especially for something where you had a monopoly in the past until there is a product related reason. Like I said, you know, if it's that systems aspect where you know companies are not going to buy CPUs from you because they want more systems level type of product, then I understand. But without that I see no reason why they wouldn't be aggressive on Capex just because there is demand and they have the fabs.

[Bloomberg Host]

Well, at Ludlow, I mean Lip Bhutan being cautious and careful, might that be, you know, not as downfall. I'm not going to say that. But problematic when, if the demand is there, as we're just talking about with Mandeep, you know, you want to spend to kind of make sure you don't miss out on that.

[Ed Ludlow]

Yeah. I mean they again are going on the data they have available, which is customer demand. You know, they have this line at intel which so consistent on, which is like when a customer signs up to use our latest chip making process, we don't announce it, we leave it to the customer. Problem for them is none of the customers have announced it. All they'll say is that they signed loads of deals, loads of LTA as they call them in the first six months of this year. And they were like, okay, so we have the deals that gives us confidence to invest. I think, you know, I think we'll learn more overnight. Right. All of the sell side notes will come out. Whatever questions get asked on the call give you a sense of the psychology of where the sell sides are. But it is astonishing that the stock's up 12% in after hours given it was up 172% going into today's close. It's like, but, but it got beat up.

[Ian King]

But it was at what, over 130 a few weeks ago?

[Bloomberg Host]

It was down 30% or so in the last month.

[Ed Ludlow]

Right. I mean, you know, one week. A market does not make a session. A market does not make. But you know, to answer, you know, there was a point in history where intel was the absolute best at this. Yeah. And they had 60% margins they're not near that. Right, right. There's still like a lot of stuff to fix here. And I don't think they're saying that they're close to that. They're just saying that they're making progress.

[Bloomberg Host]

Final thoughts as we wrap up from you, Mandy.

[Mandeep Singh]

I mean, I would like to see a backlog number. Ed alluded to LTA's, like with Micron, they signed LTA's, but they also gave visibility into pricing and how much that backlog is in terms of those LTA's. So if intel really has that sort of visibility with their customers, the LTA is, then they should give a backlog number so that street can model that. You know, okay, this is how CPUs will ramp up. To me, really, it's about sustainability of growth here once the numbers get normalized, because we are coming off a really low base here now.

[Bloomberg Host]

That's a really good point. Right? You got to think about where we're coming from.

[Ed Ludlow]

Ed, final thought just that, you know, they'll be pushed on giving more detail on customers. Something that did not come up. And I really, you know, I think it's interesting is, you know, we haven't discussed Terrafab and the partnership that's in place with Musk. And you know, it's unlikely to kind of talk openly about that, but I would say that ASML got asked about it and last night Musk was name checking Micron all over the place so it could come up. And to me that's, you know, Musk is news. And there we go.

[Bloomberg Host]

No, never makes news. Good stuff, guys. Hey, thank you so much. Of course, our Ed Ludlow out there in San Francisco, he is host of Bloomberg Tech and our Mandeep Singh right here in our studio, he is Bloomberg Intelligence global head of technology research. You guys, thank you, thank you.