AI Backstop Debate, Musk’s $1 Trillion Pay Package

Summary

Bloomberg Tech — Detailed Episode Summary

Date: November 7, 2025
Hosts: Caroline Hyde, Ed Ludlow
Key Guests: Alexandra Mertz (Tesla shareholder), Gene Munster (Deepwater Asset Management), Max Levchin (Affirm CEO), Jason Robbins (DraftKings CEO), Amber Venz Box (LTK Co-Founder)

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Main Theme

This episode covers the seismic debates and developments driving the tech sector: the financial backstop debate for AI infrastructure, Tesla’s landmark approval of Elon Musk’s $1 trillion pay package, tech earnings insights, and the impact of innovation on consumer markets.

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Episode Breakdown & Insights

1. AI Infrastructure: Federal Backstop Controversy

Segment Start: [01:48]

• Trigger Event:
  OpenAI CFO Sarah Fryer hinted at a possible government backstop for AI chip infrastructure during the Wall Street Journal’s tech conference, sparking market anxiety and misinterpretation that OpenAI had federal guarantees for costly investments.
• Government Response:
  David Sacks posted:

  “There will be no federal bailout for AI. The US has at least five major frontier model companies. If one fails, others will take its place.” ([02:06], Ed Ludlow quoting Sacks)

• OpenAI Rebuttal:
  CEO Sam Altman clarified:

  “We do not have or want government guarantees for OpenAI data centers,”
  and signaled no intention to seek federal safety nets ([02:40]).

• Market Impact:
  Investor uncertainty over the sustainability of massive AI investment; concerns heightened by mention of OpenAI’s $1.4 trillion in commitments over 7–8 years.

  “They’ve been on defense about this... Altman tried to stress revenue is growing much faster than expected, on pace for $20 billion, and commitments are ‘more than achievable’.” ([04:59], Gene Munster)

• Contextual Insight:
  Michael Burry’s warnings about “circular investments” around OpenAI contribute to the angst. Chip stocks show notable weakness.

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2. Tesla & Musk’s $1 Trillion Compensation Package

Segment Start: [06:13]

• Historic Vote:
  Over 75% of Tesla shareholders approved Elon Musk’s 10-year, $1 trillion performance-based pay package, also potentially raising his stake to 25%.
• Shareholder Sentiment:
  Alexandra Mertz, Tesla shareholder, commented:

  “If you set goals to Elon, he’s very competitive... the best executor there is on this planet and he will execute.” ([07:27]) She described the approval as a “clear victory,” highlighting higher support than previous packages.

• Key Concerns:
  • Key Man Risk: Some large, institutional shareholders (e.g., CalPERS) voted no, citing key man risk and Musk’s already-large ownership.
    Mertz dismissed these concerns:

    “That’s the same concern at 16% or 25%, right?... He is the key man risk, that is just a fact...” ([08:51])

  • Activism Shield:
    For supporters, increased ownership is a defense against activist investors, seen as lacking commitment to Tesla’s mission:

    “Retail has always stood with Elon... it is institutional funds that... don’t really like or understand the company [that] vote against its interests.” ([09:25])

• Control vs. Oversight:
  Mertz addressed the “robot army” control fear:

  “I’d rather have Elon have the keys to an army of bots than anybody else...” ([11:05]) She challenged critics to name another CEO with comparable achievement.

• Succession & Checks:
  The last two compensation tranches require succession plans, acknowledging concerns about long-term control.

Notable Quote — Gene Munster:

“No one wants an army of robots to be controlled by one person. But most 75% plus of Tesla investors want a company building that to be controlled by Elon.” ([28:47])

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3. Tesla’s Future: Growth Milestones & Chip Manufacturing?

Segment Start: [26:41]

• Gene Munster’s Skepticism:
  On Musk’s ambitious target for 50% growth and 20 million vehicles:

  “Probably not... [Musk] is throwing a ball out there that is difficult to achieve, but he has the wherewithal to do that...” ([27:01]) He notes the same pattern: huge goals, caveats (“can only move as fast as the slowest part of the production chain”), and regulatory dependencies.

• Optimus Robot & Chip Fab Discussion:
  Musk floated Tesla’s entry into chip fabs, claiming they could achieve “similar performance as Nvidia’s Blackwell at 10% of the cost.” Munster responded:

  “I generally don’t think Tesla is going to or should do their own fab... $20 billion can be spent in much better places.” ([31:01])

• Investor Anxiety:
  Recent remarks from Nvidia and OpenAI leadership, and record AI spending forecasts, induce skepticism about returns:

  “…Investors are now uncomfortable that they don't believe this ultimately is going to be prosperity... It's just gotten softened by some of these conversations. Just too many moving parts now for investors..." ([33:10])

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4. Tech Earnings: Affirm and DraftKings

a. Affirm

Segment Start: [20:54]

• Max Levchin (CEO):
  On consumer trends and Affirm’s resilience:

  “Affirm’s consumer is really healthy... rumors of the American consumer’s death are greatly exaggerated.” ([21:33]) Noted wide usage across consumer segments (over 24 million active users).

  • Affirm does well because of “total control and transparency”—no late fees, no gimmicks.
  • Partnership Model: Affirm’s integrations with Amazon, Shopify, Apple, Costco expanding into services, not just retail goods.
• Growth & M&A:
  Levchin:

  “Our current growth tracks so well... I always found that building is my strong suit. But, you know, never say never.” ([24:23])

  • Focus on payment ubiquity (“be available on every door”), holding back new product announcements for later.

b. DraftKings

Segment Start: [36:57]

• New ESPN Deal:
  DraftKings becomes ESPN’s official betting and odds partner, expanding reach across the US sports audience. Jason Robbins (CEO):

  “ESPN is an iconic brand... the greatest partner you can have... in the space we’re in.” ([37:39])

• Prediction Markets:
  DraftKings sees sports prediction as an incremental opportunity, not cannibalizing existing betting. Overseas, prediction markets are about 5% of total betting.
• Profitability & Outlook:

  “Two years ago we weren’t even profitable... now we’re in a position to play offense. We are profitable, have scale, the best product, and the best partnerships.” ([42:09]) Despite temporary negative sports outcomes, believes DraftKings is fundamentally stronger than ever.

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5. Gaming Update: GTA 6 Delay

Segment Start: [16:09]

• Grand Theft Auto 6 Release Delayed:
  Game pushed to November 2026, hitting Take-Two’s shares.
  Reporter Jason Schreier explains Rockstar is aiming for “95+ on Metacritic,” with immense stakes after GTA V’s 220 million unit sales.
• Industry Insight:
  Schreier:

  “People tend to underestimate how difficult it is to make games… especially as big and technologically impressive as this one.” ([16:57])

  • Links to the need for more development time to avoid disasters seen with rushed releases (e.g., Cyberpunk).

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6. Creator Commerce & Consumer Behavior

Segment Start: [44:53]

• LTK Brand Profiles:
  Amber Venz Box (Co-Founder):
  LTK now offers brands the ability to create profiles, curate content from trusted creators, and reach 40 million users, mostly Gen Z and millennial women.
  • Users trust creator recommendations (+20% YOY), brands like Nike, Target, Sephora, and Adidas are piling in.
  • Notably: “On LTK, when you follow someone, it actually means something... a really important part of building community.” ([46:06])
• Consumer Health Data:
  Spending is up; average order value increased by 7% YOY, with stock availability (“in stock” searches) now overtaking price as key concern.

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Notable Quotes & Timestamps

• David Sacks on AI Backstop:

  “There will be no federal bailout for AI...” ([02:06])

• Alexandra Mertz on Musk:

  “He’s the best executor there is on this planet... I would like to see the 25% that voted against it because how can you be against this if you are a shareholder?” ([07:27])

• Gene Munster on Musk’s Targets:

  “He puts that target out there, but then he adds these qualifiers… These are huge targets.” ([27:01])

• Gene Munster on Chip Fab Ambitions:

  “Building an advanced fab is really tough... Intel’s never shown they were competent in that.” ([31:01])

• Max Levchin on US Consumers:

  “The rumors of the American consumer’s death are greatly exaggerated.” ([21:33])

• Jason Robbins (DraftKings):

  “We are in a great position... about to launch sports predictions, which I believe represents a huge incremental opportunity for us.” ([42:09])

• Amber Venz Box (LTK):

  “Creator trust is up over 20% year over year... That’s so unique right now.” ([44:53])

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Key Timestamps

• [01:48] – Top stories intro: OpenAI, Musk’s pay package, market selloff, AI infrastructure anxiety.
• [03:45] – Breaking down OpenAI federal backstop story.
• [06:13] – Tesla's shareholder meeting and Musk compensation package.
• [07:27] – Alexandra Mertz on shareholder sentiment and governance.
• [16:09] – GTA 6 delay; implications for game industry.
• [20:54] – Affirm CEO Max Levchin on consumer health and growth.
• [26:41] – Gene Munster on Tesla’s growth and Musk’s targets/fab ambitions.
• [36:57] – DraftKings CEO Jason Robbins on ESPN partnership and profitability.
• [44:53] – LTK platform evolution and consumer trends.

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Episode Takeaways

• The AI sector’s capital demands and government involvement remain a heated, market-moving issue.
• Tesla reaffirms its ambition and faith in Musk’s leadership, but oversight, key man risks, and succession remain live concerns.
• Robust consumer spending, creative commerce, and innovative partnerships shape growth strategies for Affirm, DraftKings, and new platforms.
• The gaming industry’s colossal stakes highlight the risks and pressure for perfection.
• Consumer buying behaviors are shifting; transparency, trust, and in-stock availability trump price alone.

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For listeners:
This episode delivers sharp, in-the-weeds analysis of why tech markets are reeling under investment anxiety, how corporate governance is evolving around iconic leaders, and where the next big consumer and platform shifts are unfolding.

Transcript

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Tech is live from coast to coast.

[Caroline Hyde]

With Caroline Hyde in New York and Ed Ludlow in San Francisco.

[Ed Ludlow]

This is Bloomberg Tech. Coming up, Open Air Execs U turn and David Sack says no on a federal Backstop to fund AI infrastructure markets.

[Caroline Hyde]

React Plus Musk's $1 trillion compensation package gets approved by Tesla investors with over 75% of votes cast in favor. We dig into the bold new promises.

[Ed Ludlow]

And we break down more tech earnings with the CEOs of a firm and DraftKings later this hour.

[Caroline Hyde]

We go to these markets, though in sell off mode Ed on the day and on the week. Over the past five days we've shed more than 4% in market capitalization. Is the worst week since April for the NASDAQ 100, and anxiety is really building when it comes to infrastructure and whether people have got the money. You're digging into it.

[Ed Ludlow]

Yeah. Here's a story that's played out driving markets. We begin with open air and Wall Street's anxiety. That followed fresh comments about potential government financing. In the air Speaking at the Wall Street Journal's tech conference this Wednesday, OpenAI CFO Sarah Fryer caught investors attention after hinting at a potential government backstop for chip investments, a remark interpreted by some as fryer signaling OpenAI had federal guarantees for the costly infrastructure behind large models. David Sacks, the White House and crypto czar, seemed to be paying attention and posted on Thursday, there will be no federal bailout for AI. The US has at least five major frontier model companies. If one fails, others will take its place. That in turn prompted OpenAI CEO Sam Altman to step in and clarify on X, writing we do not have or want government guarantees for open air data centers, emphasizing that the company is not seeking a federal safety net. Let's get the latest. Bloomberg's editor Seth Figgman joins us now. Where do we stand? This is a multi day story. Markets paid attention to it. What's the net result, at least from open eyes perspective.

[Gene Munster]

Funny here is that really the intention behind Sarah Fryer's overall remarks of that event was to kind of calm people's nerves about what has felt like growing anxiety this week on the markets about AI spending. And instead the takeaway was what felt like an off the cuff and vague remark that just heightened those concerns. I think where things currently stand is the company has repeated up and down that there's no discussions or plans for any kind of federal backstop. Instead they're hinting at, well, maybe there's a role for government to invest in its own infrastructure that might somehow reduce some of the capital burdens here, or other indirect ways in which government could help the wider market. But suffice it to say, the message that she intended to deliver seems to have been completely lost.

[Caroline Hyde]

Sam Altman went to great lengths to try and reverse auto correct in whatever way, make clear and talked about maybe chip manufacturing. If they went into fabrication of chips, that might be an area that they lean on for government input. But what's interesting is we then look at that piece from Sam Altman saying that basically they've got $1.4 trillion of commitments. This is where the market's trying to wrap its head around. How can they afford that? He's saying they feel good about their prospects for revenue growth.

[Gene Munster]

They've been on the defense about this.

[Max Levchin]

A little bit in recent days, including.

[Gene Munster]

On a recent podcast where Altman seemed taken off guard to even be asked that question. What he's trying to stress here is that our revenue is growing much faster than anyone has expected, you know, on pace for 20 billion and have an annualized run rate and that we expect that these commitments over a seven or eight year time period are more than achievable. Based on that Revenue growth. That said, I think the overall market is looking at spending generally. Mega shares had their worst four day rout since ChatGPT launched three years ago. You know, chip stocks are seeing a slump right now and valuation concerns. Michael Burry is getting out there. One who predicted the housing bubble and basically pointing out to our graphic on circular investments that center around OpenAI across the industry and the markets, there's just really heightened concern about how achievable and sustainable the spending is.

[Caroline Hyde]

Remixed on Breaking all down, we thank you so much. Happy weekend. Now we're also watching shares of Nvidia. That's after its CEO Jensen Huang said that the company isn't in active discussions to sell its Blackwell AI chips to Chinese firms, waving off that speculation that it's trying to engineer a return to the world's largest chip maker market. Indeed, Kwong explained that he merely intended to point out China's prowess in AI when he said, quote, china will win the US China air race.

[Ed Ludlow]

Ed, let's look at shares of Tesla, down almost 4%. More than 75% of votes from shareholders were in favor approving the $1 trillion compensation package for Elon Musk. That is over 10 years and has a very strong set of mandatory milestones he needs to achieve to unlock the comp, but also the voting power that comes with it. Let's talk about that with Alexandra Mertz. She's the CEO of LNF Investor Services, but also a Tesla shareholder who discusses her views about Tesla on social media under the handle Tesla Boomer. Mama Mertz was present at the shareholder meeting last night, was also acknowledged by other shareholders who are reading out a proposal for Tesla to invest in xi, which we'll get to Alexandra, this paves a way for Elon Musk to take his stake in Tesla to 25% over the course of the 10 years. Could you just explain what the sentiment was like last night into this morning about how comfortable investors feel handing over that control to Elon Musk and the belief that you do or do not have that he can hit the milestones that have been set for him by the board?

[Alexandra Mertz]

Oh, I'm very confident that he will hit the milestones. As shown us before, what is possible, nothing's never easy. But if you set goals to Elon, he's very competitive. He's obviously the, in my views, the best executor there is on this planet and he will execute. So that's not the question. The question is whether we would get sufficient retail and institutional shareholder support and we should it 75% is astoundingly high. It is higher than the previous compensation packages, votes and revotes in 2018 and 2024. So this was a clear victory. I am so grateful for everybody who voted. I would like to see the 25% that voted against it because how can you be against this if you are a shareholder? But that's.

[Ed Ludlow]

For example, we had the investment director of CalPERS on the show yesterday. CalPERS voted no. And the rationale was that in aggregate they saw Elon Musk and board members already having 16% of the company and the issue of key man risk. So if Musk does get there right and achieves 25% stake, what if he something happens to him? Or what if something distracts him? Xi Space X for example. That was the concern they had. Why don't you share the concern?

[Alexandra Mertz]

Well, first of all, that's the same concern at 16% or 25%, right? So that culpairs argument is just, just non existent. Even though it's a nice world word salad, there is no doubt in my mind that that's what they try to do. It's not an issue about whether he as a keyman is a risk to Tesla. He is the same way. He's the key person, he's also the key man risk. That is just a fact and actually part of the structure of this compensation plan addresses that as the last two tranches are linked to a succession plan, to a more formal succession plan than what is currently in place. So 16 or 25%, that's not a question. But at 25% Elon is sufficiently strong to prevent activist shareholders trying to take over bringing board members in that are not aligned with Tesla's mission. And I think that is the key point. Retail has always stood with with Elon and has always been very active, knows what this company is about. So that is not the concern. But it is institutional, institutional funds that are in Tesla despite the fact that they don't really like the company, don't understand the company, vote against interest of the company and that can become stronger just by the pure mechanism of index funds, of political activism. And he wants to make sure that that can be prevented. And he's right. And the fact of being in Turkey taxes helps a lot. But him getting to 25% obviously is a good shield.

[Caroline Hyde]

But that's exactly the worry is that he does get the 25% control and can fend off activism that might be in some way trying to course correct as others feel outside of Tesla. Why is that you're saying it's a word salad. But for many that's exactly the, the fear that he has control over what he calls a robot army.

[Alexandra Mertz]

I understand that, I understand that there is a fear. But ask those activists what is their idea about Tesla? What is their idea about a better world? They never talk about that. They talk about the fact that they fear Elon is too powerful. They never talk about what Tesla is all about. I never hear a Calpers or God forbid Klaus Lewis ISS or the New York comptroller talk about the mission of Tesla, talk about where Tesla is going. And you know, I rather as a shareholder have Elon's have the keys to an army of bots than anybody else, including the four companies I just mentioned.

[Caroline Hyde]

We'll put that to couples. I feel that he in many ways was trying to articulate that they are about the long term vision, whether it's about electric vehicles, whether it's about supporting the climate, whether it's about, about humanoid robots. They just don't think that perhaps another CEO couldn't achieve really significant, phenomenal growth for this business. Even if it wasn't Elon Musk. Why is he alone the only person who could meet these milestones and drive optimists to be on the moon, on Mars? I mean that seemed to be the next area of growth. Was that what you wanted to hear? That we're going to have optimists doing surgery but also eventually going to Mars?

[Alexandra Mertz]

Yes, we should do, we should want to hear that. We also were absolutely excited thinking about chip manufacturing. I don't think that has really gotten through yet to the press and I hope Bloomberg is going to talk about it if Tesla goes into chip manufacturing. Can you imagine? So I would like to ask Culpurs, show me, show me one other CEO who did even half of what Elon has accomplished. If you show me one where you have the feeling that that person could do something even comparable. I'm ready to sit down and discuss it with him. But we're going to wait for a.

[Ed Ludlow]

Long time, right Alexandra? I would push back a little bit because I wrote the story about Elon's comments from the earnings call about clarifying the Samsung TSMC relationship and I sent the headline last night about his comments on chip manufacturing. So I'm going to look into it. I need to ask you about Xi and you were in the room and were waiting on the 8K. What appeared to happen was Brendan Earhart, the corporate secretary say there were more for votes than against, but a very large Number of abstentions. And so they're basically reserving the right to wait, look at the non binding proposal and go back to it. Is that your understanding of where things stand and also just your reaction to it because you were involved in the process of getting that proposal. Proposal on the docket?

[Alexandra Mertz]

Yes. Yes. Well, thank you very much. Yes, very good question. And as you point out, we haven't seen the 8k yet, so I don't have the underlying numbers, but I know exactly what happened. The board recommendation was neutral. They did not give a recommendation. Lots of retail shareholders just follow blindly the board's recommendation. So by going after the board's recommendation, instead of voting none, they abstain. That is the logical way and that's actually how it is automated. We had this issue with a Norwegian bank which gave their shareholders only a certain limited number of options to vote. And then the shareholders from Norway, which are very numerous in Tesla, could not vote for question six. They were abstaining. So abstaining was also just a consequence of the way the proxy was laid out. And there was no better choice. It was a bad choice to not be able to give, give a guidance, but there was no other choice because what the board is trying to do here, and we have to understand why that is, is to stay out of it until they get a clear mission from the shareholders. And why are they doing that? Well, because it is a conflicted situation. Elon is the key man in both XI and Tesla. And as SolarCity has shown us, it is always difficult to invest from one company A into a company B that are both like led by the same, by the same key person. So the board tries to stay out of it until there is a clear mission. Now we have to see the 8k numbers to understand whether this is now a clear call from shareholders to do it. If there were so many stains, it may not be. But you also have to know that this shareholder proposal number seven was always only advisory. It was never that. This vote would have been an automatic investment. If the board now convenes that they want to invest, we will certainly have another shareholder vote on the exact proposal of investment, not just on the general idea.

[Caroline Hyde]

Pushing us forward and with great energy. After what was a pretty extraordinary day at the annual general meeting yesterday. You were there, we saw all the dancing. Alexandra Matz, we love catching up with you. Thank you. Tesla shareholder known on social as Tesla Boomer Mama. Now, coming up, Grand Theft Auto Center 6. It hits another bump in the road. We'll discuss why the latest title in the popular video game franchise is being delayed again. This is Bloomberg Tech shares of take two having their worst day since February 2024, down almost 8%. Yesterday the video game publisher pushed back the release of Grand Theft Auto 6 again, again until November 2026. Let's talk through this the Bloomberg's games reporter, Jason Schreier. Basically it's going to be a year late now. Why this second pushback? What's going on with Rockstar?

[Jason Robbins]

Yeah, I mean video games are complicated to make. This is going to be one of the biggest video games of all time, will probably be the best selling entertainment product of all time. And so the pressure is very high. Rockstar and Take Two, they want this game to be as critical, perfect as possible. They wanted to hit 95 plus in Metacritic. That's the review score aggregator.

[Gene Munster]

Right.

[Jason Robbins]

And yeah, these games need time.

[Ed Ludlow]

I get that, you know, wanting to hit 95 plus on Metacritic, what you just said about it probably being the biggest entertainment title to sell of all time. Go back to GTA 5 and explain the data that tells us that this might be worth waiting for from Take Two's perspective. They want to get this right from a sales point of view.

[Jason Robbins]

Yeah, there's a simple number here which is that GTA 5, the last game in the series which was released in 2013, has sold 220 million units, which, I mean, that's more. This one game alone has sold more than most franchises. Final Fantasy, Assassin's Creed. This makes it the second best seller selling game of all time, only only second to Minecraft which was released on phone. So that's kind of a different, a different playing field. So yeah, I mean the stakes are very high and again, I think that people tend to underestimate how difficult it is to make games, especially a game as big and ambitioned and technologically impressive as this one. I mean we've seen the trailers, we've seen what it looks like. It looks more realistic than any game we've ever seen scene. It's going to have a huge open world. The people at Rockstar are just, are still working on it, still making new stuff for it, still building this world and fixing bugs. And Ed, you know well that games like Cyberpunk have come out in recent years and needed more time in the oven and came out too early and that is just disastrous for the companies.

[Ed Ludlow]

Involved and they needed, they needed patch after patch. But I still went back and played it from the start after the patch. Bloomberg's Jason Schreier, thank you very much. Okay, sticking with Gaming A quick update in the Google versus Epic Game case, A federal judge is withholding approval of Google's antitrust settlement with Epic Games. The company says it will improve the distribution and monetization of apps on Android phones. But US District Judge James Donato says he wants to look closer at the terms of a deal first to make sure it benefits consumers and boosts competition.

[Caroline Hyde]

Car Meanwhile, we've got a lot still to digest. We speak with the Firm Holdings CEO Max Levchin on the latest earnings results. Listen to.

[Gene Munster]

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[Jason Robbins]

But end to end across channels thanks.

[Gene Munster]

To our AI advancements.

[Caroline Hyde]

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[Amber Ben's Box]

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[Gene Munster]

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[Max Levchin]

Hey everyone, Ed Helms here and hi, I'm Kal Penn and we're the hosts of Irsay, The Audible and iHeart Audiobook Club. This week on the podcast I am sitting down with Jenny Garth, host of the iHeart podcast. I choose me to discuss the new Audible adaptation of the timeless Jane Austen classic Pride and Prejudice. This is not a trick question. There's no wrong answer. What role would I play?

[Caroline Hyde]

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[Alexandra Mertz]

I can see you as Mr. Mr. Darcy.

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[Max Levchin]

Okay, that's really sweet. I appreciate that. But are you sure I'm not the dad? I'm not Mr. Bennett here. Listen to Earsay the Audible and iHeart Audiobook Club on the iHeartradio app or wherever you get your podcast.

[Ed Ludlow]

Shares of a firm off session highs up about 5% at one point in the session, up almost 12%, the company posting a first quarter earnings beat. But really the focus is on it raising its 2026 forecast for gross merchandise volume, but it sets us up for an incredible fiscal 26. Joining us on set is Max Levchin, a firm CEO. There's a lot of emphasis at least from from Bloomberg Intelligence in house on on card and that driving volumes. But what we've learned across this earnings period in your domain is it's worth spending a minute on the underlying behaviors of your consumers that that drove this growth in the quarter. What are you seeing?

[Max Levchin]

So despite the Vibe session we're seeing in the markets today, in the last few days, a firm's consumer is really healthy. They're shopping, they're buying, they're paying their bills. They're, you know, they're energized by the upcoming coming holidays. I think frankly the rumors of the American consumer's death are greatly exaggerated.

[Ed Ludlow]

It's interesting because like different segments of the technology sector tell different stories right now. Is there a specific product category or method of spending that is is demonstrating that more than others?

[Max Levchin]

I think we are quite unique in this sense a firm's brand. Our promise really is use us when it matters to you because you'll have to total control and great degree of transparency. And as the outside pressures, even the stories you read weigh people down, it's easy to say, you know what affirm is at least the one thing that's going to keep me clear and in good control. And so we think people are coming to us a little bit more. Certainly we saw great demand for our recent zero day promotion, but you know, I think so far so good, at least in the firm consumer world.

[Caroline Hyde]

The funny thing is Max, sometimes the market likes to see use of a firm or maybe more standard buy now, pay later offerings as the Vibe session is that not the case?

[Max Levchin]

You know, we had 24 more than 24 million active consumers last quarter. At this point it's really dangerous to just say oh, the affirmed consumer is doing X or Y. We have quite a number of segments. Folks that are using our 0% promotions are typically leaning into to just frankly saving money, getting a great deal. Folks that favor longer terms to repay care a lot less about total cost, very much care about individual cash flow. And so depending on sort of which segment you look at, you'll see a slightly different behavior. I think the unifying factor is they're all getting a really clear deal. There are no late fees, there's no gimmicks, there's no gotchas and that's the way they keep coming back to us.

[Caroline Hyde]

And why you keep seeing growth merchandise volumes going up and down to the right. What's interesting is your partnership model, and it really works well. Amazon, Shopify, Apple, Costco, where else do the partnerships make sense, Max?

[Max Levchin]

You know, to be honest, everywhere. We just announced a really strong push in to services. So for a long time you would think of buy now, pay later as a thing. You buy and pay over time. People buy more than things. They remodel their kitchens, they refurbish various parts of their house, and announced a great partnership with service titan Vergara, a variety of other platforms. So we, we partner very widely because this model really works for any purchase. You know, anything from a couple hundred dollars all the way out to thousands.

[Caroline Hyde]

What about you leaning into the moment? There is a lot of competition and smaller scale and many times you stand out because they're more dependent on late fees and other such charges. Would you do any M and A? Is this the environment in which you'd look to do that?

[Max Levchin]

You know, I think our current growth tracks so well. I'm not sure I have a lot of time to consider M and A. But, you know, never say never. Obviously we're doing really well. The company is performing. I always found that building is my strong suit. But, you know, who knows, Max, this.

[Ed Ludlow]

Earnings season, we've had the opportunity to speak to the CEOs of chime Robinhood so far, and now you. I appreciate there are differences in those companies, but in the how people transact with money. What you will have in common is looking at varied products that you offer. What is your new product strategy going into 26? And do you have any sort of ideas about this, this generational wealth transfer that all the others are going on about at the moment?

[Max Levchin]

You know, I think we are a payments company first and foremost. Our job is to be there, be available. You know, we talk a lot about there are many doors, digital and real world, where there are lots of logos of payment systems. Our job is to be on every door, to be available, to make sure we are there to serve when people are buying goods or services. And so we're very, very focused on executing what we have. You know, 42% doesn't come easy. And we will keep trying to hit, hit really good growth. You know, I've learned the hard way not to pronounce new products. We have all sorts of really exciting things we're cooking. You know, have me back and I'll announce it, it's ready to go.

[Ed Ludlow]

Fair enough.

[Caroline Hyde]

Beaten race trajectory. That's how Bloomberg Intelligence sees it. Max Levchin, we appreciate it. Firm CEO.

[Max Levchin]

Sixth. And finally, on the 2025 CEO Performance.

[Jason Robbins]

Award to our founder and CEO Elon Musk, with over 75% voting in favor, approved.

[Ed Ludlow]

That was Brandon Earhart reading the results of Tester's shareholder vote yesterday. The company's corporate secretary and general counsel and as we've been discussing, Musk's pay package, worth potentially up to trillion dollars, was approved today. The shares however, are lower by 4%. Is that sell the news? Is there something in reaction to the vote itself? Not sure, Carol.

[Caroline Hyde]

Let's get an investor take. Then we bring in Gene Munster, managing partner at Deepwater Asset Management. Thrilled to have you on. So much to talk about. But 75% is a lot. But there also comes some significant milestones and also then talk of 50% growth, growth in car production by the end of 2026. Can he make that, Gene?

[Gene Munster]

No. The simple answer is that probably not. But that's what Elon did. A master classes is ultimately is throwing a ball out there that is difficult to achieve, but he has the wherewith to do that. And so that ball you talked about, the production piece, this 50%, he puts that target out there, but then he adds these kind of qualifiers that say that yes, we can do it, but we can only move as fast as the slowest part of the production chain, that pipeline, to get them to build the whole capacity. To get them to build capacity. And separately, when he thinks about Optimus and what the potential is there, I mean, this is something that he outlined as a kind of a five year, ten year plan. But it is ultimately something that, you know, getting the 10 million robots here, I just want to put that into perspective. 10 million a year. They're doing 2 million cars a year. And they really got moving in earnest on the car production in 2019. And so it's taken them six years to get to 2 million. These are huge targets in Caroline. At the most basic level, he put big targets out there. That's what he does. And that's the mandate that investors gave him with this vote of this pay package is they want these big targets out there. And he's delivering on that. Whether it's the production or the commentary.

[Caroline Hyde]

About Optimus investors excited. Your dog's excited, Gene. I'm interested about what therefore he has to do to keep up with the momentum now. Because look, let's just ask you a basic question. Many were worried about a 25% ownership for Elon because of the control, not so much the $1 trillion pay package. It's more about that he's going to be controlling the robot army. Is that something you want to see that generally society wants to see?

[Gene Munster]

Well, that's what he wants, control. And the answer is no one wants an army of robots to be controlled by one person. But most 75% plus of Tesla investors want a company that's building that to be controlled by one person or controlled by Elon. And I think that that makes sense. Elon's been very clear that if he wants to build this army, if he wants to build this Air Vision company, he doesn't want to be pushed out. He also left open the option for him to get pushed out, in his words, if I go insane. And so I think that's an important distinction too. He has control, but that doesn't mean that he's going to be a Tesla forever.

[Ed Ludlow]

I think going back to basics is really critical here, Jane. So there's the mechanics of what happened. The vote passed, the package was approved. And then Elon Musk spoke after, afterwards, and he actually gave some information that relates directly to the milestones the company has set. So in the middle there, we're saying the board is tasking him over 10 years to deliver 20 million vehicles. Right. He told us in his remarks that 2026 would see 50% annualized growth. That was something material, was it not?

[Gene Munster]

We said 50% annualized growth. But then he put the caveat if the, if the supply chain can provide the components to get them to increase the capacity by that much. Right. It's a similar caveat that happens when he says we're going to have autonomy, full FSD approved in one or two months. That was his comments yesterday, pending regulatory approval. And so I'm a shareholder of Tesla. I think that this company is, is grossly undervalued. That may sound like it's out of touch with reality, that comment, but I think it's grossly undervalued. But, but I also am realistic about what goes on here. There is this, this, these targets that could put out there. But then there's these caveats that are out of his control that will be put on any sort of some of these really big targets.

[Ed Ludlow]

You noted, as many have done, Musk's comments on silicon, and it was a throwaway comment, but the idea that the Tesla might do its own fab. Are you taking that seriously?

[Gene Munster]

So I'm not taking it seriously. I think that, you know, Elon wants to make a point and the point is I think he's frustrated about what he is paying for silicon. If you look at all of his enterprises. Space X xai, Tesla, Neuralink, all those combined. The biggest line item on those outside of people is around silicon. I mean there is. He spends a ton of money on that. What he talked about here was having silver similar performance as Blackwell, Nvidia's Blackwell GPO at a 10% of the cost. You think that that's doable and I just want to kind of put that to the test. Is that kind of performance, that kind of cost performance is something that is, I think, unrealistic, at least for the next few years. It's the same reason why Nvidia has been so bullish on their business is that these customers would love to find an alternative, whether it's through custom silicon or through amd, for example. But the reality is, is that Nvidia still is the best bang for the buck when it comes to silicon and that's a very expensive buck in this case. So I think that I generally don't think Tesla is going to or should do their own fab. I think $20 billion can be spent in much better places. He kind of threw the lifeline out there. Maybe we work through Intel. Hmm. Has been a challenging road for intel on the fab side. And building a fab advanced fab is really tough. These advanced nodes are very tough and Intel's never shown they were competent in that gene.

[Caroline Hyde]

Broaden that out, therefore, because the whole market has a lot of anxiety on its shoulders right now around the build out of generative AI infrastructure. Now in particular, we saw Sam Altman trying to navigate what had become a bit of a explosion that the CFO had set off on Wednesday by saying maybe they'd look to some sort of government to support for their infrastructure, spend some. Altman came out and said, look, the only way we'd want government support is perhaps if we became a fabricator of chips. But what do you make about the weight that is currently on this market about vindicating $1.4 trillion spending by a company that's making maybe 12 billion, call it maybe even 20 billion a year in terms of revenue.

[Gene Munster]

So there is a switch that flipped since the end of October. I think it was like the 20th of October is when Jensen came out and said that Nvidia is going to essentially beat the expectations by 15% plus over the next five quarters. He put out this $500 billion in Blackwell revenue and, and that was a really big point. And then we had the hyperscalers. And then this conversation started to shift. There was a change in terms of how the AI investor is thinking about this. And the shift is this sense of like, wow, maybe this is just getting to be too much. We saw it happen with Metastock. And then on top of that, Sarah Fry and the Sam Altman and the Goldman or the Wall Street Journal event, all that kind of. I think you put all this together and there is all of a sudden this vortex of what's really going on here, whether it's the government piece, whether it's the expectations that Nvidia has about, about how much they're going to sell over the next few quarters, whether it's Meta saying how much they're going to spend and Amazon, it just feels like there's. Investors are now at a point where they're uncomfortable that they don't believe that this ultimately is going to be prosperity. There's going to be prosperity around this investment. And so I think that's the shift we've seen. That's why I think we've seen sell off in these companies. The fundamentals are rock solid. OpenAI doesn't need government support, there's no question. But there is a psychology piece to this trade and I think it's just gotten softened by some of these conversations. Just too many moving parts now for investors that will settle down once they start to see the December quarter results and understand that in fact, we are still early in this build out.

[Ed Ludlow]

Gene Munster, managing partner at Deepwater Asset Management. Great to have you back on the show. Thank you very much. Now, coming up, we're going to be joined by DraftKings CEO Jason Richard Robbins, following the company's earnings and its new deal with Disney. More on that next. This is Bloomberg Tech.

[Max Levchin]

Hey, everyone. Ed Helms here and hi, I'm Cal Penn and we're the hosts of Hearsay, the Audible and I Heart Audiobook Club. This week on the podcast, I am sitting down with Jenny Garth, host of the iHeart podcast. I choose me to discuss the new Audible adaptation of the timeless Jane Austen classic Pride and Prejudice. This is not a trick question. There's no wrong answer. What role would I play?

[Caroline Hyde]

You know what?

[Alexandra Mertz]

I can see you as Mr. Darcy.

[Amber Ben's Box]

You got a little Colin Firth.

[Max Levchin]

Okay, that's really sweet. I appreciate that, but are you sure I'm not the dad? I'm not Mr. Bennett. Here, listen to Earsay the Audible and iHeart Audiobook Club on the iHeartradio app or wherever you get your podcasts.

[Caroline Hyde]

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[Amber Ben's Box]

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[Caroline Hyde]

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[Ed Ludlow]

Welcome to our TV and radio audiences worldwide. We head back to earnings with DraftKings out with their results cutting its revenue forecast for the full year. The company also out though with news that Disney signed a new multi year deal to make the sports betting company the official betting site and odds provider for the ESPN Sports Network. Let's bring in DraftKings CEO Jason Robbins. It's an interesting partnership and I think that's where we should start. Start how much does this move the needle for you? You know we've talked in the past on this program, Jason with you about the integration of the live sports event and the broadcast with the betting activity. Your big picture goal with this deal?

[Jason Robbins]

Well, first of all, ESPN is a iconic brand. It's you know, by far the biggest name in sports in the United States States and they have an incredible portfolio, unmatched portfolio of sports content, influencers, talent. So it's really, you know, for us just the greatest partner you can have when you're in the space we're in and Jimmy Pitaro runs it really understands and I think values the sports betting space and understands that the customer overlap is high and it's important that they engage their customers by being partnered with somebody like DraftKings. So really excited to embark on it. We've been partners with them many times in the past so it's familiar territory. We know all the people there and we're looking forward to working together. And you add that to our deals with NBC Universal and Amazon and others, we have an unmatched I think presence across the sports landscape over the next several years.

[Ed Ludlow]

Prediction markets Wednesday night we were with Robinhood at that in person earnings call that was wacky. Don't know if you consider that but the month of October, massive volumes for them. You're being super thoughtful about predictions. I understand that and you have a clear strategy. My question has always been how much a growth in a nascent predictions market cannibalizes other offerings that you have.

[Jason Robbins]

I Think very little. If you look at the UK for example, exchange based betting is about 5% of the total pie. So you know, that's pretty probably about right. And I think a lot of it is largely incremental because there are market makers and others that are not present on traditional sportsbooks that generate a lot of the volume. So I think it's very much an incremental opportunity for us and that's why we're so excited about it. We acquired Railbird and we are also looking to enter the market sometime in the next couple of months.

[Caroline Hyde]

What's interesting Jason, is investors analysts out there called out on the actual earnings script talking about how marketing expenses, higher sales expenses did eat into the results and they call them also some ugly outcomes when it comes to the sports games for that you can't control. But what about the expenses you're going to have to have on the predictions markets?

[Jason Robbins]

Well, we do plan to make some investment there. We mentioned this on the call that we're going to be more, I think conservative in terms of the paybacks we're looking for for just given how nascent a space it is and the fact that, you know, it's unclear kind of how this will all play out. But we are going to make some investment there first, of course, in getting a product developed and making sure that that's the best in class. You can't win. And we've always said this product is the most important thing. You can't win if you don't have a great product. And then, you know, assuming that the numbers check out, we'll spend marketing accordingly. We're going to be very data driven like we always are and everything. We will test it into it. But we did want to make sure as we guided that we were thoughtful about giving the team some space to be able to accelerate spend if the.

[Caroline Hyde]

Numbers look good and therefore the guide did pull back rather than uplift going forward. Jason, but you say it's conservative. You talk about an incremental opportunity from predictions and I'm really interested as to how you make sure this doesn't cannibalize what you already have out there. You've talked a lot about how this might actually make more states accessible to sports betting because at the moment you can get 50 states with this predictions market. But what you've got 25 at the moment for your offering and you're about to. And you also have DC and then you're adding Missouri.

[Jason Robbins]

Yeah, I mean I think you're exactly right that this will hopefully lead More states to decide that they might as well legalize sports betting. It's, I think predictions are a powerful talking point for that because, you know, same as the illegal market, same as anything. In this case, it's regulated. But the bottom line is it's activity that's already happening in the state at some level that they are not directly benefiting from and regulating. So I do think that will motivate some states. But for us really the cannibalization thing isn't a huge concern. We haven't seen that happen. Not just here, but as I mentioned overseas where there's long established, I mean it's not a brand new thing like it is here. There's been predictions in sports exchanges around for decades in the UK for example. So we feel like there's pretty good data out there to show that head to head, the traditional sports betting product is a much far superior product for customers.

[Ed Ludlow]

Jason, you said that this is the most bullish you've ever felt about the company's future. What are the underlying trends, data points, behaviors of your customers that give you that conviction and why do you have it now that you didn't have previously?

[Jason Robbins]

Well, I think if you take a step back, you know, it really starts with the progress that we've made over the last few years and the position we put ourselves in. Remember two years ago we weren't even profitable. Three years ago we had nearly $1 billion adjusted EBITDA loss. At that point, you know, we were getting killed in the market because people thought we were going to run out of money and go out of business. We really buckled down, we grew revenues, we managed costs and you know, just a few years later we've had over a billion and a half swing. So I think that shows that we are in a great position. But also more importantly now we're in a position to play offense. We are profitable, we have scale, we have the best product in the market, we have the absolute best partnerships and presence across the media landscape. We're about to launch sports predictions which I believe represents a huge incremental opportunity for us. So a lot of really exciting things going on and the only real negative on the quarter was the sport outcomes. I think all the consumers stereo over predictions is kind of nonsense. But the really only negative sport outcomes, but that's a temporary thing. That's not something that has anything to do with the fundamentals of the business.

[Ed Ludlow]

DraftKings CEO Jason Robbins. Thank you very much, Caroline.

[Caroline Hyde]

Well, it's time now for talking tech Ed. First up, Bitcoin well, it's fallen as much as 12% so far this week, on track for its worst weekly performance since all the way back in March. In spite of President Trump's push to cement us as the world's crypto epicenter, the market value of digital assets is now lower than when he took office. Plus China, well, it's allowing Dutch chip maker Next Period to export again from its operations in the country. This sets the stage for the Netherlands government to kind of back down and suspend its powers over the Chinese owned company after a conflict that had threatened to disrupt global automotive production. And Apple's streaming service when it went down briefly for some users last night, shortly after the debut of the widely anticipated Pluribus. It's a new series from the creator of Breaking Bad. This came at a bad time for Apple, which billed Pluribus as one of the major exclusive attractions at look, we're at a time when consumers are more cost conscious than ever. Brands, well, they're racing to make meet them where they actually shop. Creator commerce platform LTK is expanding to include brand profiles, giving companies a new way to connect directly with value driven shoppers within the creator community. For more AMA Ben's box LTK co founder joins us now. It's really interesting because you have what I think 40 million monthly users globally on LTK, but they come because their creators, their favorite creator is there telling them, advising them on what they could purchase. Why is therefore Nike putting itself there as a brand individually?

[Amber Ben's Box]

You know, LTK is a single largest creator commerce platform. We have 30% of Gen Z and millennial women in the US using the platform. There's they're spending every 60 seconds. Let's see, they're going, I think 60 people shopping every second. They're buying $11,000 of the product every single minute. That's 6 billion a year. That's the equivalent of an eras tour every single quarter. There is a lot of demand here and that's only growing by a billion since 2024. You're seeing that consumers are rotating their trust directly into creators. That creator trust is up over 20% year over year and brands want to have more opportunity to reach their customer on the platform where they are today. So just this week we've had brands like you mentioned, whether it's Nike Target in the beauty category, Ulta Sephora, Tart on the, you know, sport and athletic, it's Alo, it's Nike, it's Adidas. Huge global brands launching their presence on the LTK social app to be able to Meet creators and their audiences in a high trust environment. That's so unique right now.

[Caroline Hyde]

So what are they actually doing? I went on to the Nike offering, for example. At the moment, it looks like they're getting creative content and sort of putting it onto their own landing page. How will they differentiate, do you think, going forward?

[Amber Ben's Box]

Yeah. So this is a whole new experience. This doesn't exist anywhere else. What we've done is we've launched a platform where these brands can come in and see all the content that's being written about them on the LTK platform. So that's been about 7 million pieces of original content just on the LTK platform alone from these creators year over year. So for example, Nike would come in, they see all the content written about them. They can curate for their audience, their favorite creators, and the best content, talking about the products that they love. So if I'm a Nike fan, they not only can I go through my favorite creators to find that product, but I can just search Nike, follow Nike and see the things that they are curating. So brands are not creating the content on ltk. It's still creator driven, but they are able to curate it, which is giving their audience really another path to discovery. On the LTK app, we found that one in five searches has a brand name. So people might be looking for like Nike running shoes, maybe they're looking for, you know, Abercrombie denim. They're looking for a Christmas tree from Target. We see that happening one in five times. And so this gives our brands the opportunity to have a little bit more influence over the curation of what that customer ultimately sees by following that brand. It takes a little further because what's unique on LTK is when you follow someone, it actually means something. Our following feed means that you get to choose that content that shows up and they want to meet their customers every day. That's a really important part of building community. It's something that is, you know, know, unique to LTK given the age of AI and algorithms.

[Ed Ludlow]

Amber, very quickly, we had 30 seconds. You have rich data about behaviors in September and October. Is the consumer healthy through your data?

[Amber Ben's Box]

They are. We're seeing that they're spending average order values up 7% year over year on LTK. They're spending almost a billion more this year than they did last year. The biggest shift on the consumer side is that they are expecting for out of stock products. We saw search for gifting go up over 300% in September. More than half of those in our consumer study said they expect for creators to help them source alternative products. This is a huge shift because last year it was all about price. This year it's all about in stock. We're excited to help our brands navigate this through our all new all in one creator platform that's completely free for brands that we've just launched where they're paying for success, not access. It's so bring it all together for them this year.

[Ed Ludlow]

Amber Ben's Box LTK Co Founder thank you very much. Sadly, that does it for the edition of Bloomberg Tech. Check out the podcast. You know where to find it.

[Jason Robbins]

Happy Friday.

[Ed Ludlow]

This is Bloomberg Tech.

[Max Levchin]

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[Caroline Hyde]

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[Max Levchin]

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[Max Levchin]

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