Bloomberg Tech Podcast Summary

Episode: AI Funding Frenzy Continues with Cursor, Thinking Machines
Date: November 14, 2025
Hosts: Caroline Hyde (NY), Felix Gillette (SF)
Featured Guests: Melissa Tokmak, Natalie Gallagher, Lillian Rincon, Jacob Cook, Michael Joel Kosa, Rachel Metz

Episode Overview

This episode delves into surging private sector funding in AI startups—highlighting massive rounds by Thinking Machines Lab and Cursor—amid ongoing debate about possible overvaluation or an “AI bubble.” The hosts examine the market volatility, discuss how economic/monetary policy affects tech growth, and provide a global perspective with a focus on China’s tech-driven Singles Day, regulatory/tariff pressures, and the changing landscape of enterprise and consumer AI tools.

Key Segments & Insights

1. Market Volatility & The “AI Bubble” (03:00–06:24)

• Context: Tech stocks whipsawing—crypto drops sharply, while stocks show resilience after initial declines.
• Skepticism over Valuations: Skepticism about the Fed’s December moves; questions about sustainability of massive capex and AI-fueled gains.
• Notable Insight:
  • Melissa Tokmak: “Maybe this is time for a correction because this is a longer period than we’ve seen opposed to normal here, as we haven’t seen a correction here for the broader market…” (03:49)
• Options Market: Intense focus on Nvidia “Super Bowl” earnings next week (04:37). High VIX call option activity signals bracing for post-earnings volatility.
• Michael Burry Mention: Noted for suggesting that some tech companies are artificially padding earnings, raising questions about core fundamental value.

2. Fed Policy’s Impact on Tech & AI (06:24–10:44)

• Guest: Natalie Gallagher, Principal Economist, Board (AI-powered enterprise planning)
• Main Points:
  • The “AI Bubble” debate is nuanced; differences with dot-com era due to contracted services and strong balance sheets among hyperscalers.
  • Fed decisions have a huge impact (“tech is so rate sensitive”—07:14).
  • Real capital investment driving revenue and productivity, but “if we don’t see that…we risk a capital misallocation story” (09:23).
  • AI spending has driven GDP growth, but underlying economy (“K-shaped”) is bifurcated—layoffs even amid high-level tech investment.
• Notable Quote:
  • Natalie Gallagher: “What we really need to track is the investment that’s been taking place. There’s been a significant investment wave really across assets and this is just part of the broader story. What we’re really going to need to see from an economic perspective is this translate into meaningful productivity growth…” (09:17)
• Tariffs & Trade:
  • U.S.–China trade relations still cast a shadow over tech investment cycles—uncertainty means “one year visibility into overall prices” despite 7–10 year planning cycles (09:56).
• Strategic Shifts:
  • “Clear shift in investment strategy towards evidence-based investment rather than just spending on faith alone.” (10:44)

3. Applied Materials / China Trade Tensions (11:06–11:50)

• Applied Materials Stock:
  • Hit by Chinese sales drop (Q4 sales from China down 8% YoY).
  • Ongoing worries about tariffs; market eager to rebound, but outlook uncertain.

4. Thinking Machines Labs: $50B Funding Frenzy (14:12–16:52)

• News: Former OpenAI exec Mira Murati’s startup, Thinking Machines Lab, is in talks to raise funding at a $50B valuation, quadrupling its valuation since July.
• Product:
  • Released “Tinker,” a product for fine-tuning AI systems—unclear exactly how much traction it’s getting.
• Leadership:
  • Murati’s crisis experience at OpenAI—was briefly CEO during Altman’s ousting—has given credibility and helped attract top talent, including OpenAI co-founder John Schulman.
• Talent Exodus: Cluster of OpenAI alumni moved with Murati, signaling deep industry experience—a “tech talent migration” moment.
• Notable Quote:
  • Lillian Rincon: “There was a quite an exodus of talent from [OpenAI] to her company.” (16:26)

5. Cursor Raises $2.3B—AI Coding Goes Enterprise (26:49–34:25)

• Cursor in the Spotlight:
  • Cursor, an AI coding platform, raises $2.3B at a $29.3B valuation.
• Usage:
  • Widely adopted by 6 of the “Magnificent Seven,” plus enterprise names like Starbucks, PwC, Hilton, Stripe, Adobe, Uber, and Shopify.
• Business Model:
  • Pricing based on seats and deep usage (akin to Databricks/Snowflake).
• Productivity Boost:
  • Study shows a 40% rise in productivity for engineers using Cursor (28:39).
• Talent War:
  • Company acquired Growth by Design, a recruiting agency, to bring hiring and talent in-house.
• Notable Quotes:
  • Michael Joel Kosa: “We are just at the very start of how we think building software and coding is going to change over the course of the next few years…” (33:05)
  • On AI displacement of jobs: “Definitely in the data that we have, we don’t see that. … That’s more engineers getting within the fold and growing seats within engineering accounts and growing engineering teams.” (34:02)
• Industry Tension:
  • Cursor is now viewed as indispensable; CEOs reach out frequently to discuss partnerships/acquisitions, but Kosa coy about M&A rumors.

6. Founders Fund & Netic: Bringing AI to Main Street (37:48–42:49)

• Guest: Melissa Tokmak, CEO of Netic
• News: Netic raises $23M Series B; Founders Fund backs for a third time.
• Mission:
  • Focused on bringing “frontier AI” to “backbone” industries—HVAC, plumbing, electrical, construction—not just Silicon Valley.
  • Leverages partnerships with large enterprises and PE firms to integrate AI into deep, service-heavy workflows.
• Labor Shortage:
  • Echoes Nvidia’s Jensen Huang: massive skilled labor needs for datacenter and energy expansion.
• Market Difficulty:
  • Smallest contractors may not be ready for AI tools; thus Netic focuses on mid-market and larger enterprises.
• Notable Quote:
  • Melissa Tokmak: “For us, we want to back these industries … and help them make more revenue.” (38:20)
  • “These are the jobs that are not replaced for the next hundred years.” (42:22)

7. Google’s Agentic AI for Shopping (43:33–47:38)

• Guest: Lillian Rincon, VP Consumer Shopping, Google
• Product News:
  • Using Gemini platform to advance “agentic AI” in consumer shopping—auto price tracking, auto-purchases, agent calling for stock checks.
• Example:
  • Agents can auto-buy once prices drop to a user’s target; agents call retailers to confirm availability.
• Challenges:
  • Need for agent-to-agent communication; system still early-stage.
• Notable Quotes:
  • Lillian Rincon: “We have been doing things like duplex … since 2017, 2018.” (45:53)
  • “Agentic technology is very nascent. … We’re really starting with what are those real problems that consumers have and always giving consumers control of the experience.” (44:51)

8. China’s Singles Day & E-Commerce Optimism (19:58–25:24)

• Guest: Jacob Cook, CEO, WPIC
• Key Findings:
  • Singles Day sales up ~15% YoY, strongest since 2021—even after accounting for longer sales window.
  • Middle class growth solid, especially for upscale/foreign brands via Alibaba’s 88 VIP program (+30%).
  • AI tools made operations smoother, reduced ad spend—efficient customer acquisition, improved margins.
  • “AI made [the event] a lot more efficient … it kind of reduced the stress level on people’s operations.” (24:52)
• Takeaway:
  • Foreign brands expected to do well in 2026; Chinese consumption recovery appears robust.

Notable Quotes

• Melissa Tokmak (on market correction):
  “Maybe this is time for a correction because this is a longer period than we’ve seen opposed to normal here…” (03:49)
• Natalie Gallagher (on AI investment payoff):
  “If we don’t see [AI investment] translate into meaningful productivity growth, then we risk a capital misallocation story.” (09:23)
• Lillian Rincon (on agentic AI shopping):
  “We’re really focusing on bringing agentic AI for consumer problems that really matter.” (43:33)
• Michael Joel Kosa (on AI job displacement):
  “It’s not AI that’s going to take your job, it’s somebody that uses AI that’s likely to take your job.” (33:37 paraphrased)

Timestamps for Key Segments

• Market Volatility & Bubble Debate – 03:00–06:24
• Fed, Tech & Tariffs – 06:24–10:44
• AI Funding Surges (Thinking Machines Lab, Cursor) – 14:12–16:52 / 26:49–34:25
• China Singles Day & AI E-Commerce – 19:58–25:24
• Netic, Founders Fund & Main Street AI – 37:48–42:49
• Google’s Agentic AI in Retail – 43:33–47:38

Tone & Style

Direct, high-paced, and accessible for an audience tracking tech business and financial moves. The hosts and guests balance enthusiasm for innovation with healthy skepticism about valuation and macroeconomic risks. The tone is factual, analytic, and occasionally irreverent (“Super Bowl” for Nvidia earnings, quips about market whiplash).

Summary Takeaways

• AI funding and valuations are surging, with Thinking Machines and Cursor as prime examples, stirring both excitement and worries about a bubble.
• Investors and analysts are closely watching economic policy, especially Fed moves, which have outsized effects on tech sector optimism and spending.
• Real productivity, not just hype, will be the critical measure for whether today’s massive capital investment in AI is sustainable.
• China’s consumer tech and e-commerce sectors demonstrate strong AI-driven growth, despite larger macro tensions and regulatory barriers.
• Next-generation AI tools are rapidly moving from Silicon Valley “elites” toward broader enterprise application, with new platforms for both Main Street businesses and everyday consumer shopping.
• Talent wars, M&A rumors, and the push into physical-world industries all highlight how the AI race is redefining the tech and business landscape in real time.