Bloomberg Tech – ASML Earnings Signal AI Demand Holding Strong

Date: October 15, 2025
Hosts: Caroline Hyde (New York), Ed Ludlow (San Francisco)
Special Guests: Henry Ren (Bloomberg), Andrew Gardner (Citi), Mark Gurman (Bloomberg), Craig Trudell (Bloomberg), Alan Baratz (D-Wave), Ryan Vlastelica (Bloomberg), Thomas Martin (Global Investments), Brody Ford (Bloomberg), Rebecca Weddman (Valois), Natalie Leung (Bloomberg)

Overview

This episode of Bloomberg Tech digs into the strong earnings and steady demand for ASML's advanced chipmaking equipment fueled by the global AI boom. The show also spans data center investments, product updates from Apple, quantum computing breakthroughs, risks in EV design, and the evolving productivity promise of enterprise AI. Notably, the cast weighs the reality versus the hype in AI-driven markets and touches on Waymo’s upcoming London robo-taxi launch.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. ASML Earnings and AI-Induced Demand

• ASML’s Bookings Surge:
  The chipmaking equipment giant continues to see resilient orders for their Extreme Ultraviolet (EUV) machines, critical for advanced AI chips.
  • Henry Ren: "This EUV orders number has risen to the highest level since late 2023, a huge plus for investors." [02:28]
• Role in Asia and China Exposure:
  ASML is navigating geopolitical pressures, especially rare earth materials and decoupling from China.
  • Henry Ren: "ASML has stacked enough materials for at least several months...no major impact seen so far." [03:34]
• Broader Industry Trends:
  • Andrew Gardner (Citi): Maintains a bullish outlook but cautions that announced chip deals and real equipment orders are disconnected.
    • "It's all about the growth beyond 2026...the AI momentum will drive the stock higher." [04:44]
    • "ASML...is close to but not quite fully booked for 2026 deliveries...Really, the capacity that is already planned to be installed next year, sure there could be a little bit of upside, but we're already getting close to the limits." [08:08]
  • Significant revenue exposure to China (42% last quarter) is expected to drop as restrictions increase, but the transition may be gradual.
    • “They’re still generating very strong business in China at the moment.” [09:18]

2. Tech Market Implications: Apple, Data Centers, and Quantum Computing

• Apple Moves Further In-House

  • Latest product refreshes—iPad Pro, Vision Pro, MacBook Pro—all leverage the new M5 chip, reinforcing Apple’s supply chain independence.
    • Mark Gurman: "This is probably the most minor set of Apple product refreshes I could remember...just bringing up to the latest processor." [10:57]
  • Notable manufacturing pivot: New home devices to be produced in Vietnam instead of China, indicating diversification despite continuing investment in China. [12:34]

• Quantum Computing Breakthroughs

  • D-Wave CEO Alan Baratz: Announced European debut of their “Advantage 2” quantum computer, the world’s largest by qubit count.
    • "We recently published in Science...computing properties on our quantum computer in minutes that would take nearly a million years to compute on the fastest supercomputers." [19:11]
  • D-Wave’s annealing approach and rising market interest, with real revenue and institutions already purchasing quantum systems. [21:53]

3. AI Infrastructure Frenzy and Data Center Investments

• Chip Stocks and Big Bets

  • AMD and Nvidia surge after price target raises, driven by anticipated expansion of AI chip markets beyond hyperscalers (Microsoft, Amazon, etc.).
    • Ryan Vlastelica: "They still see Nvidia as the market leader...pretty positive about it." [25:30]

• Mega Data Center Deals

  • Microsoft and Nscale's fourth facility deal in Texas (240MW, 100,000+ Nvidia GPUs), and a $40B data center buyout involving BlackRock, Abu Dhabi’s MGX, Microsoft, and Nvidia.
  • CoreWeave and Poolside’s massive natural gas-powered complex in West Texas.
  • Thomas Martin (Global Investments):
    • Bubble talk: "We don’t believe that it’s a bubble. The usefulness from these AI models...we’re only at the very, very beginning." [27:31]
    • But: "The data’s not really there yet in a way that you can put your finger on it and count on it." [28:34]

4. AI Adoption, Productivity, and the Enterprise

• Reality Check for Enterprise AI Adoption
  • Salesforce’s Dreamforce features new AI-powered “Agent Force” for customer service, which the company claims saves $100M/year internally.
  • Concerns raised about reliance on internal use stories over customer case studies.
    • Brody Ford: "Internal implementation...could be a bit of a red flag...traditionally companies like to lean on their customer stories." [33:44]
  • Broader challenge: Enterprise AI pilots underwhelming; "95% of pilots aren’t working." [34:12]
  • Rebecca Weddman (Valois):
    • "We went from fear of missing out to fear of messing up...trusted partner is really important." [36:25]
    • On policy: "Fewer than 20% of companies have a policy on the use of AI today and fewer than 10% have tried training and reskilling in place." [37:27]
    • Despite challenges, views Salesforce as ahead in helping clients realize value from AI.

5. EV Safety and Regulatory Response

• Flush Door Handle Controversy
  • After a fatal fire involving Xiaomi’s SU70V sedan, scrutiny is rising on EV door handle designs that can fail in emergencies—Tesla and Rivian are also implicated.
    • Craig Trudell: "To have built a vehicle where the external door handles are inoperable without low voltage battery, that's just a problem...a concern for regulators." [14:00]
  • China is proactively soliciting feedback and manufacturers are already making safety changes.
  • Zika is reverting to traditional handles, described as "a return to common sense." [16:22]

6. Autonomous Ride-Hailing in London

• Waymo London Launch
  • Waymo will launch a driverless taxi service in London, managing its own app rather than relying on Uber/Lyft.
    • Natalie Leung: "London seems to be welcoming with open arms...UK government moved forward their regulatory framework to pilot these autonomous vehicle trials to next year." [43:00]
  • Fleet management by Move, a company with African roots, as urban taxi trials roll out across a 100-square-mile radius in London.
  • London’s pro-innovation stance signals broader readiness for AV services. [42:37]

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On ASML’s Blockbuster Bookings:

  • "This EUV orders number has risen to the highest level since late 2023, a huge plus for investors."
    — Henry Ren [02:28]

• On Disconnect between Chip Hype and Reality:

  • "This is not yet reflected in firm orders...there’s a growing disconnect...between chip deals being announced and the amount of spend committed to these equipment companies."
    — Andrew Gardner [06:03]

• On Quantum Computing’s Real-World Impact:

  • "Computing properties...in minutes that it would take nearly a million years to compute on the fastest supercomputers."
    — Alan Baratz, D-Wave [19:11]

• On AI Bubble Concerns:

  • "We don’t believe that it’s a bubble...but that data is not really there yet in a way that you can put your finger on it and count on it."
    — Thomas Martin [27:31], [28:34]

• On Enterprise AI Adoption Challenges:

  • "We went from sort of fear of missing out...to the fear of messing up."
    — Rebecca Weddman [36:25]
  • "Fewer than 20% of companies have a policy on the use of AI today and fewer than 10%...training and reskilling."
    — Rebecca Weddman [37:27]

• On EV Door Handle Safety:

  • "...to have built a vehicle where the external door handles are inoperable without low voltage battery, that's just a problem..."
    — Craig Trudell [14:00]

Timestamps for Major Segments

• ASML Earnings & EUV Orders: [01:20]–[04:26]
• ASML Analyst/Industry Breakdown: [04:44]–[10:19]
• Apple Product Refreshes: [10:57]–[13:17]
• EV Flush Door Handles Controversy: [13:17]–[16:22]
• D-Wave Quantum Announcement: [18:02]–[23:11]
• Chip Market Rally & Data Center Deals: [23:11]–[29:29]
• Microsoft Data Center Expansion & Bubble Talk: [26:23]–[32:13]
• Salesforce, Agent Force & Enterprise AI: [33:12]–[38:00]
• Waymo’s Driverless London Launch: [41:55]–[44:19]

Tone and Takeaways

The episode is high energy and tightly focused on drawing lines between huge, future-looking tech trends (AI, chips, quantum, autonomous vehicles) and the messy, incremental, often skeptical reality on the ground. Speakers are optimistic but grounded, candid about both market exuberance and the crucial need for real adoption, clear ROI, and responsible risk management. The discussion throughout reflects both the vibrancy and the volatility of the current tech landscape.

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