Bloomberg Tech: "Cisco Shares Nears Dot-Com Highs"

Date: November 13, 2025
Host: Ed Ludlow (San Francisco), Caroline Hyde (New York)
Format: Daily news program focused on technology, innovation, and the future of business

Episode Overview

In this episode, Bloomberg Tech explores Cisco’s surge to share price highs unseen since the dot-com era, fueled by a strong 2026 outlook and growing AI-driven enterprise business. The show features an in-depth interview with Cisco CEO Chuck Robbins on the company’s strategic evolution, followed by analysis of Disney’s earnings miss and succession questions, exclusive news about Tencent’s deal with Apple, breaking headlines from Tesla and the venture landscape, plus debate around the reality of an “AI bubble” and its impact on public and private markets.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. Cisco: From Dot-Com Highs to the New AI Era

• Cisco shares surged to their highest levels since 2000, up c.4–4.6%, after raising their 2026 outlook and highlighting success in the AI/cloud infrastructure market.
• CEO Chuck Robbins Interview:
  • Celebrated “a record quarter” and possibly “the best year we’ve ever had.”
  • Drew parallels with the dot-com era but emphasized today’s stronger market fundamentals, with major “hyperscalers” as customers.
  • On Customer Base:
    • Signed new major US hyperscalers, plus sovereign deals in the Middle East (notably G42 in UAE and Humane in Saudi Arabia), and seeing growth in Europe and Asia.
    • Pipeline: Over $2 billion through the end of fiscal year in “NEO cloud, sovereign cloud, and enterprise.”
  • AI and Security Investments:
    • Security business making progress: next-gen firewalls saw “mid-teens growth,” Splunk's recurring revenue in “double digits.”
    • Shift to cloud-based Splunk created an “accounting issue” but is positive long term.
    • Stress on proprietary silicon development as key to hyperscaler wins since 2016.
  • M&A and Product Focus:
    • Emphasized more software, especially post-Splunk acquisition, and future focus on “security and AI.”
    • Open to both organic innovation and inorganic (M&A) deals.
  • On AI Bubble Question:
    • Robbins downplayed bubble fears:

      “The difference between now and 2000 is these are massive companies with strong financial performance... They view [AI] as existential.” (08:36)

    • AI's enterprise adoption just beginning—“huge opportunity ahead.”
  • On Forecast Conservatism:
    • Admitted forecasts are prudent in a “dynamic” world but expressed strong confidence:

      "We're very confident in the numbers that we put up yesterday.” (09:54)

Notable Quotes:

• “I think it'll just extend into the enterprise over time.” —Chuck Robbins (03:29)
• “If we did not have our silicon and design our own, we wouldn't be participating at all. It's black and white.” —Chuck Robbins (07:34)

Timestamps:

• [03:29] Reflecting on Cisco’s modern business model
• [04:19] Discussion of new hyperscaler and sovereign customers
• [06:14] Deep dive on the state of Cisco’s security business
• [07:34] Strategic importance of proprietary silicon
• [08:36] Are we in an AI bubble?
• [09:54] On the conservatism of Cisco’s guidance

2. Disney’s Volatile Earnings, Streaming Bets, and CEO Succession

• Shares fell almost 10%, the worst drop since 2022, despite double-digit EPS growth guidance for 2026.
• Interview with CFO Hugh Johnston:
  • Contradicted market pessimism:

    “Overall, I thought the quarter was good and it actually allows us to end the year with a lot of momentum. EPS up 19% for the year.” (15:40)

  • Streaming Outlook:
    • Asserts confidence in continued streaming profitability through 2026, driven by a tentpole content slate including Zootopia 2, Avatar, and Toy Story 5, as well as strong TV ratings and improved DTC app experience.
    • Bundling seen as critical for “reducing churn, increasing engagement,” despite short-term lower operating income ($375M for Q1 2026).
  • Succession Concerns:
    • Board to name a successor to CEO Bob Iger “by end of March 2026,” pointing to a two-horse race between Dana Walden (creative) and Josh D’Amaro (parks).
  • Market Skepticism:
    • Analysts critique lack of stronger, more specific 2026 guidance given forthcoming content and business catalysts.

Notable Quotes:

• “The board has been about as transparent as any CEO succession I have ever seen in my long career.” —Hugh Johnston (19:04)
• “Bundling ultimately is a very profitable thing to invest in... increases retention, reduces churn, increases engagement. That’s not a theory, we have proof on that.” —Hugh Johnston (18:38)

Timestamps:

• [15:40] Disney’s Q4 and FY2025 performance with CFO Hugh Johnston
• [17:02] Streaming business confidence and growth drivers
• [19:04] Upcoming CEO succession and process transparency

3. Tencent & Apple: A Strategic Truce with WeChat Mini Games

• Tencent and Apple have reached a deal: Apple will take a 15% cut (instead of usual 30%) from in-app purchases in WeChat Mini Games and apps—a major shift after years of stand-off and circumvention.
• Implications:
  • Opens a rare path for Apple into China’s massive super-app market; Apple has less leverage than in US/EU due to local alternatives.
  • Signals growing regulatory and business pressure on Apple globally to reduce App Store fees.

Notable Quotes:

• “It’s at least an entree for them into a China market that they really haven’t been able to tap that effectively in the past.” —Peter Elstrom (12:25)

Timestamps:

• [11:13] Analysis of the Apple–Tencent deal context and significance
• [12:25] How the agreement reflects China’s market power dynamics

4. Tesla Embraces CarPlay—A Stunning Reversal

• Tesla is developing support for Apple CarPlay, despite CEO Elon Musk’s long-standing refusal—seen as an attempt to revive sagging sales amid intensifying EV competition.
• Motivation:
  • CarPlay is a highly requested feature; Tesla aims to address all major pain points driving customers to rival brands.
  • Potential connection to Musk’s $1T pay package, which is performance-driven (vehicle sales).
• Apple’s Perspective:
  • CarPlay is a sticky, consumer-facing feature that keeps iPhone users locked into the Apple ecosystem. No revenue exchanged with Tesla—benefit is indirect.

Notable Quotes:

• “People are not buying Teslas because of [missing CarPlay]... Tesla wants to hit every lever it could to improve sales.” —Mark Gurman (39:34)
• “Aligning Tesla with the iPhone brand... that's great for Apple whether they're making money directly on it or not.” —Mark Gurman (41:25)

Timestamps:

• [39:34] Mark Gurman on Tesla’s CarPlay reversal and rationale
• [41:05] The Apple-Tesla relationship and strategic calculus

5. AI Bubble Debate & Private Market Trends

Market Analysis and Venture Capital Insights

• Chuck Robbins (Cisco):
  • Asserted that AI investment wave is different from dot-com bubble because the “customers... have incredible balance sheets, have incredible cash flow, have incredible profitability” and see AI as “existential.” (08:36)
• Philippe Botteri (Accel VC):
  • Called AI a typical platform shift—on historical pace with previous tech waves—but warned “not all companies are going to be winners.”
  • Noted $184B global VC to cloud/AI, with 60% to US-based models (OpenAI, Anthropic), and a robust, competitive ecosystem of native AI applications in Europe/Israel as well.
• On Valuations:
  • Private companies like Lovable and Synthesia are scaling fast, but public markets still hold the bar high ($500–700M ARR to IPO).
  • M&A primarily on the model side for talent; ambitious founders in AI apps are focused on building independent global giants.
• Concerns About Circularity and Volatility:
  • Brianne Doherty (Bloomberg Intelligence):

    “We do think we're not in the bubble camp. We do think that there's a lot of opportunity down the road.” (45:29)

    • Noted that public/private company valuations (e.g., OpenAI, Anthropic XI) would put them among the world's 30 biggest public tech stocks if listed.
    • Advised investors to beware volatility and focus on indices/benchmarks when investing in times of disruption.

Notable Quotes:

• “The productivity improvement potential that AI is giving goes well beyond what any of the previous platform shifts have generated.” —Philippe Botteri (30:00)
• “Picking single individual winners and losers is really tough. When you're talking about investing through disruption, we really look at benchmark indices.” —Brianne Doherty (47:56)

Timestamps:

• [27:25] Philippe Botteri on the “AI bubble” question
• [28:37] Allocation trends in venture capital
• [31:41] The IPO pipeline for AI-native companies
• [34:53] European vs. US approach to capital and scaling
• [35:09] Risks around model innovation slowdowns
• [44:01] Jensen Huang (Nvidia): “The reason for that is we're going through a natural transition from an old computing model based on general purpose computing to accelerated computing.”
• [45:29] Brianne Doherty on OpenAI & the structure of AI investing

6. Michael Burry Shutters Hedge Fund Amid “AI Bubble” Fears

• Michael Burry’s Scion Asset Management terminated its registration, possibly closing his fund to outside investors. Follows public bets against Palantir and Nvidia—positions that “defied fundamentals for so long.”
• Rationale: Burry, famous for “The Big Short,” has grown increasingly frustrated with trying to time the “exuberant” AI-driven market.

Notable Quotes:

• “Even Michael Burry is starting to lose faith in trying to time this bubble.” —Tom Metcalfe (23:36)

Timestamps:

• [23:00] Michael Burry background and latest fund developments
• [24:25] Insider details on Burry’s specific bets

Noteworthy Quotes

“The difference between now and 2000 is that these are massive companies with strong financial performance... They view [AI] as existential.”
—Chuck Robbins, Cisco CEO [08:36]

“Overall, I thought the quarter was good and it actually allows us to end the year with a lot of momentum. EPS up 19% for the year.”
—Hugh Johnston, Disney CFO [15:40]

“Aligning Tesla with the iPhone brand... that's great for Apple whether they're making money directly on it or not.”
—Mark Gurman, Bloomberg [41:25]

“Picking single individual winners and losers is really tough… When you're talking about investing through disruption, we really look at benchmark indices.”
—Brianne Doherty, Bloomberg Intelligence [47:56]

Segment Timestamps

| Topic | Speaker | Timestamp | |-----------------------------------------------------------------|-------------------------|-------------| | Cisco’s resurgence, CEO interview | Ed Ludlow, Chuck Robbins| 03:20–10:17 | | Disney earnings and streaming outlook | Ed Ludlow, Hugh Johnston| 15:30–20:50 | | Apple-Tencent WeChat deal | Peter Elstrom | 11:13–12:59 | | Tesla adopts CarPlay, market implications | Mark Gurman | 39:10–42:31 | | AI bubble debate – venture & public market trends | Philippe Botteri, Ed Ludlow, Brianne Doherty | 27:25–47:56 | | Michael Burry shuts his fund, bubble concerns | Tom Metcalfe | 23:00–25:31 |

Memorable Moments

• Cisco’s Chuck Robbins on AI: Stressed that AI infrastructure is in its early innings and enterprise adoption will drive the next growth cycle.
• Disney’s CFO on Streaming: Made a strong case for bundling, unified apps, and blockbuster releases as the foundation for future profitability.
• Apple/Tencent détente: The 15% fee headline—half the US/EU App Store normal—signals Apple's flexibility in strategic overseas markets.
• Tesla’s CarPlay reversal: Mark Gurman framing it as a necessity in the face of customer demand and slowing growth.
• Market Uncertainty: Analyses suggest that, while some show bubble signs (e.g., Burry's frustration), robust fundamentals for leading AI infrastructure players set this era apart from 2000's excesses.

Takeaways for Listeners

• Cisco is back in the spotlight with hyperscaler momentum, a sharpened AI/security focus, and an eye toward enterprise expansion.
• Disney’s streaming play faces skepticism, but bundling, DTC investments, and blockbuster content remain core growth levers.
• Tech giants are making strategic compromises: Apple adapts in China, Tesla bows to market features like CarPlay.
• AI remains a double-edged sword: Venture capital still flows, but picking winners is tricky and “bubble” worries oscillate.
• Iconoclasts like Michael Burry are struggling to read the current market, emphasizing how disruptive (and unpredictable) the AI wave is proving to be.

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