Bloomberg Tech — Detailed Episode Summary

Episode: Intel Falls as Manufacturing Snags Bedevil Comeback
Date: January 23, 2026
Hosts: Caroline Hyde (New York), Ed Ludlow (San Francisco)
Notable Guests: Ian King, Peter Elstrom, Joanne Feeney, Regina Clulo, Mark Gurman, Pedro Francesca, Alexandra Levine, Peter Singlehurst, Ron Vasilika

Episode Overview

This episode dives deep into the challenges facing the semiconductor industry, particularly focusing on Intel's steep stock drop following disappointing manufacturing performance and outlook. The show also covers significant milestones in AI chip policy between the U.S. and China, transformative moves in autonomous vehicles, major fintech and tech M&A, and the shifting dynamics of late-stage private capital. Throughout, the program features expert commentary from industry insiders and Bloomberg reporters, offering context and analysis for investors and tech leaders.

Key Discussion Points & Segments

1. Intel’s Manufacturing Crisis and Outlook

[05:22–17:45]

• Intel’s stock fell sharply due to a weaker-than-expected sales outlook, mainly attributed to persistent supply and execution problems, particularly around their server chips and factory (fab) yields.
• Yield and Production Issues:
  • Intel underestimated demand for server chips, failed to build sufficient inventories, and faced poor production yields—"they've really left quite a lot of orders on the table here." (Ian King, Bloomberg, 08:01)
  • Yield issues have significant ramifications for the foundry business. Poor performance undermines Intel’s ability to attract external customers to its manufacturing facilities.
• CEO Lip Bhutan’s Cautious Approach:
  • "This is really expensive. Building these factories ... costs a fortune. I am not going to do that until my customers say, here’s an order that I can then turn into cash that pays for these factories." (Ian King relaying Lip Bhutan's perspective, 10:00)
  • Investors are left in a wait-and-see period regarding whether Intel can become a significant rival to TSMC.
• Expert Take (Joanne Feeney, Advisors Capital Management):
  • Intel’s gross margin at 37.9% is highlighted as "really important signal"—historically, Intel’s margins exceeded 60% (Joanne Feeney, 19:00).
  • "Intel is in a situation ... with yields lower than they would like ... a particularly risky bet." (Feeney, 21:15)
  • Intel faces a chicken-and-egg problem in its 14A foundry process—clients won’t sign up without proven manufacturing, but Intel is reluctant to invest without client commitments.
  • Feeney's conclusion: "As an investor, we’re not enthusiastic about Intel. The risk is simply too high. ... We think there are better places to be." (23:45)

Memorable Quote:

"People look at that gross margin and see it as a really important signal of how much progress they're making in a complex manufacturing process. And clearly, they're not making as much progress as investors would like and as the company would like."
— Joanne Feeney, [21:55]

2. U.S.-China AI Chip Policy and Nvidia’s Prospects

[17:45–27:48]

• Beijing has permitted Alibaba, Tencent, and ByteDance to prepare orders for Nvidia’s H200 AI chips, marking a possible easing of export restrictions for select U.S. chips.
• Policy Nuances:
  • While the Trump administration has allowed H200 sales, Beijing insists these chips not enter “sensitive” sectors, e.g., military or state-owned enterprises (Peter Elstrom, 19:10).
  • It’s a positive, if limited, reopening for Nvidia. China is the world’s largest AI chips market, but domestic tech champions (like Huawei) must also be considered.
• Market Implications:
  • Joanne Feeney (Advisors Capital) notes it’s an "incrementally positive" sign for Nvidia, but the extent of market opportunity remains hard to define (Feeney, 23:28).
  • Argument over U.S. export bans: If the U.S. blocks Nvidia completely, Chinese firms will just innovate alternatives.
  • National security, competition, and maintaining U.S. tech leverage are at the heart of policy debates.

Notable Quote:

“If we don’t sell these chips, if Nvidia doesn’t get to sell these chips, China will develop them. ... They’ll do that in AI applications. ... So, you know, I think that the opportunity for us to have more sort of input and potential control over the future of this AI technology is really a worthwhile goal.”
— Joanne Feeney, [25:53]

3. Tesla’s Vision-Only Autonomous Taxi Milestone

[28:16–34:05]

• Tesla now offers robo-taxi rides with no human safety monitor in Austin, using only cameras (vision-only), while competitors like Waymo use multi-sensor setups.
• Commentary from Regina Clulo (Populus):
  • This is a major technical step, but deployment is extremely limited—"definitely an experiment." (Clulo, 30:09)
  • Waymo is the commercial leader, already providing over a million rides monthly and aiming for a million weekly.
  • Consumer readiness is growing, especially in cities like San Francisco, with "certain segments of customers preferring Waymo and even being willing to pay more." (Clulo, 32:52)
• Global Context:
  • Across China and the Middle East, adoption is accelerating as global regulators and consumers become more accepting.

Notable Quote:

“People are becoming very comfortable very quickly with these vehicles, and we’ll just continue to see that happen.”
— Regina Clulo, [32:58]

4. Apple Leadership and Succession Hints

[34:05–38:30]

• Apple’s hardware chief, John Ternus, has expanded responsibilities—now overseeing all product design teams (hardware and software), putting him "at the very top of the short list of frontrunners of potential Tim Cook successors." (Mark Gurman, Bloomberg, 36:02)
• The move is subtle, with design teams formally reporting to Tim Cook, but operational control is shifting.
• Future Products:
  • Ternus is expected to focus intensely on the "foldable iPhone," a significant potential revenue driver.

Notable Quote:

“Design is one of the most critical and prestigious functions at Apple. ... It’s really only been run by the most senior executives in the company’s history ... Now, John Ternus adds to that list.”
— Mark Gurman, [36:17]

5. Fintech M&A: Capital One Acquires Brex

[38:40–44:35]

• Capital One has agreed to acquire Brex for $5.15 billion, a notable discount from Brex’s previous $12 billion valuation.
• Pedro Francesca (Brex CEO):
  • Frames deal as a "unique one plus one equals three scenario"—Brex brings tech and product, Capital One brings scale, distribution, and balance sheet.
  • Justifies lower price by noting "2021 valuations were a very specific point in time in markets" and that "everything converges to public markets eventually."
  • Deal will turbocharge Brex’s go-to-market and R&D capabilities, leveraging Capital One’s $6B marketing and R&D budgets.

Notable Quote:

"The teams that see reality the best win. ... When we look from a public market lens into everything we've done, we made a lot of decisions around the way we accelerated growth ... and this combination of factors made this be a really special outcome."
— Pedro Francesca, [42:30]

6. TikTok’s U.S. Journey: Deal Finally Closes

[44:35–47:16]

• TikTok’s U.S. operations have officially been acquired by a consortium led by Oracle, with Silver Lake and MGX as managing investors.
• New U.S. CEO Adam Presser, formerly WarnerMedia, has been deeply involved in TikTok’s data security transition.
• The saga “spanned three presidencies, more than half a decade” and now covers more than 200 million U.S. users.

Notable Moment:
– “It’s been almost seven years since all this started and 200 million people—more than half the country—are now on the platform and it has grown so considerably since all of this has been happening.”
— Alexandra Levine, [46:03]

7. Private Growth Equity: Unicorns Out, “Dekacorns” In

[48:10–55:34]

• Peter Singlehurst (Baillie Gifford):
  • The trend to stay private longer is structural, influenced by regulation (Sarbanes-Oxley) and cultural changes—"founders today realize you can build a better, more enduring business by staying private for longer."
  • Secondary markets (share tenders) now provide liquidity, allowing giants like SpaceX and Databricks to remain private.
  • 2026 could see mega-IPOs (SpaceX, Anthropic, OpenAI), but “the real question is when do they choose to enter public markets, and at what price.”
  • Baillie Gifford adds value by helping companies transition to public governance and by maintaining a long-term investor approach.
  • Despite the influx of new investors (retail, pensions, sovereign funds), private companies still choose their partners selectively.

Notable Quote:

“Private markets are not democratic markets. ... It’s perfectly right that people are wanting to get access to these companies—and I guess the journey we’ve been on ... has been helping our clients maintain their exposure to the growth of these world-beating companies despite them remaining private for longer.”
— Peter Singlehurst, [55:05]

8. Market & Company Updates: Amazon Layoffs, Mega Cap Earnings

[55:45–59:20]

• Amazon is preparing for another wave of layoffs, potentially affecting thousands, following previous cuts of up to 14,000 corporate jobs.
• Upcoming earnings season focuses on:
  • Tech investment in AI infrastructure (CapEx) and ROI—how the likes of Amazon, Apple, Microsoft, et al., will monetize AI spending.
  • Importance of memory chip prices for Apple’s upcoming results.
• Intel’s valuation ran far ahead of operational results, described as "a show me story, a turnaround story that remains in progress." (Ron Vasilika, 59:06)

Notable Quotes & Timestamps

• On Intel’s Manufacturing Crisis:
  “They’ve really left quite a lot of orders on the table here. And obviously that is not good.” — Ian King, [08:01]
• On Nvidia in China:
  “We’re not really going to model it in at this point because it’s hard to know how large it could be. Nevertheless, a positive sign.” — Joanne Feeney, [23:28]
• On the Future of Autonomous Vehicles:
  “It’s still anyone’s market to win, and it’s exciting to see more players enter it.” — Regina Clulo, [31:59]
• On Private Growth Equity:
  “Tesla went public in 2010 at a $2 billion valuation. Today Space X is still private, valued at $800 billion. ... That growth is happening in the private markets.” — Peter Singlehurst, [55:15]
• On Amazon Layoffs and Tech Rotation:
  “Of those mega caps ... a major focus is going to be how much these companies continue to spend on capex, especially when it comes to AI.” — Ron Vasilika, [56:59]

Conclusion

This episode captures a week of high drama and pivotal shifts for the tech industry: Intel’s struggle to reinvent itself, Nvidia’s cautious re-entry into China, the transformational rise of true self-driving vehicles, major fintech realignments and ongoing debates about public vs private growth. Across the board, the message is clear—technology’s future is being shaped by both strategic execution and global policy, with few sure things and much at stake.