Nvidia Says It’s Getting Orders From China

Summary

Bloomberg Tech Podcast Summary

Episode Title: Nvidia Says It’s Getting Orders From China
Date: March 18, 2026
Hosts: Caroline Hyde (New York), Ed Ludlow (San Francisco)

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Episode Overview

This episode centers on Nvidia’s robust performance amidst global market uncertainty, spurred by new orders from China for its H200 chips and signals of future growth in AI. The conversation includes Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang’s bullish projections, the broader impacts on AI and tech stocks (notably in China), and deep dives into investor sentiment. Additional major stories include the regulatory clash over prediction market startup Kalshi, a legal battle between Anthropic and the U.S. government, Tencent and Alibaba’s AI-driven earnings strategies, and venture/AI perspectives from private market guests.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Nvidia Outperforms Despite Macro Headwinds

Timestamps: 01:36–05:49

• Market Context: Broader markets are rattled by Middle East conflict and inflationary pressures, yet Nvidia is among the few tech names thriving.
• China Demand: Nvidia receives new orders from China, boosting investor confidence. This marks a change after Chinese government hesitancy and new regulations.
• Jensen Huang’s Bullishness: Huang articulates a $1 trillion+ projection for AI chip sales that excludes upcoming new products, signaling even more potential upside.
• Investor Impact: “I think these are all things that are positive and are maybe helping the stock sort of shake off some of those macro pressures.” (Carmen Reinecke, 03:27)
• Nvidia’s Global Signal: Moves from Nvidia often trigger upticks in other AI and chip companies worldwide.

2. OpenClaw and the ChatGPT Moment

Timestamps: 04:57–05:49, 27:15–28:22

• OpenClaw’s Hype: CEO Jensen Huang likens OpenClaw’s release to “the next ChatGPT,” with Chinese stocks like Minimax surging 20% amid “OpenClaw frenzy.”
• Market Reaction: “He's pushing forward on where next for compute and that's going to be driven by agenda. You saw his adoption of this ChatGPT moment for OpenClaw, really helping Chinese names.” (Caroline Hyde, 04:57)
• Chinese Tech Giants: Tencent and Alibaba double down on AI investment, adjusting strategy and pricing to monetize these advances.

3. AI Spending: Investor Expectations and Caution

Timestamps: 06:25–12:28

• Investor Perspective: Kim Forrest (CIO, Boca Capital Partners) notes Nvidia’s success is no longer limited to hyperscalers—corporate adoption is growing rapidly.
• AI Spending Cycles: Forrest draws a parallel to the Y2K era, warning that tech spending booms are often followed by busts. “I've seen some really goofy estimates that companies are going to be spending on this in perpetuity in the trillions and that's really not how technology works.” (Kim Forrest, 07:33)
• Memory Markets: Micron’s high-bandwidth memory is critical for AI, but history suggests a boom-bust pricing cycle will return.

4. Kalshi’s Regulatory Fight: Prediction Markets and Legal Uncertainty

Timestamps: 14:36–22:09

• Arizona Crackdown: Kalshi CEO Tariq Mansour responds to criminal charges of illegal gambling, arguing the fight is about federal vs. state jurisdiction and not ‘gambling’ per se.
• Federal Preemption: “This is not about gambling…they're about prediction markets writ large…attacking the entire business model.” (Tariq Mansour, 15:53)
• Public Perception: Despite Kalshi’s framing as a financial marketplace, most Americans view prediction markets as gambling (Ipsos survey: 61%).
• Business Resilience: Mansour emphasizes Kalshi will fight ‘overreach’ but always comply with final court rulings.

5. Anthropic vs. U.S. Government: AI, Security, and Contracts

Timestamps: 22:19–25:22

• Federal Lawsuits: Anthropic is fighting efforts to remove it from federal contracts due to disagreements over AI’s use in defense.
• Market Impact: While public profile of Anthropic's chatbot grows, company warns of potential billion-dollar damages from contract issues.

6. Asia’s AI Race – Tencent and Alibaba

Timestamps: 27:15–29:38

• Tencent: Announces 13% sales growth and plans to at least double AI investment, using OpenClaw-inspired tools to enhance WeChat and cloud computing.
• Alibaba: Hikes prices for AI storage/computing, with investors closely watching for monetization strategies in upcoming earnings.

7. Expo’s Agentic AI and Cybersecurity

Guest: Ugud Amar, CEO, Expo
Timestamps: 29:38–35:06

• Funding Round: Raised $120M+ to scale autonomous cybersecurity tools capable of outpacing machine-speed attacks.
• Agentic AI Opportunity: “Every Expo agent is like a new team member in security. We vastly constrained by the scarcity of talent and so…suddenly scale and do all the things that we know we should be doing but were not able to do before, that's fantastic.” (Ugud Amar, 34:15)
• Optimism about AI: Amar calls it a revolutionary era, empowering both defensive and offensive cyber capabilities.

8. Gradient Ventures and the State of AI Startups

Guest: Darin Eshirazi, General Partner
Timestamps: 35:46–40:57

• Investment Focus: Gradient avoids “bubbles” in foundational model companies, instead backing AI infrastructure/applications at early stages.
• Volume Surge: “Now we see 2,000 companies a year come through our doors and pitch us with some new AI technology…We have to pick about 10 to 15.” (Darin Eshirazi, 36:38)
• Raising in a New Climate: Shifted from sole Google LP to diversified investor base, emphasizing careful, non-frothy investments.

9. Disney’s Leadership Handoff & Media Strategy

Guest: Chris Palmeri (Bloomberg)
Timestamps: 42:12–44:03

• New CEO at Disney: Josh DeMaro takes over during challenging times—needs to build a strategy for streaming, parks, and integrating consumer touchpoints like Epic’s Fortnite.
• Industry Shift: Streaming’s profitability struggles and legacy media’s decline pose existential challenges.

10. FCC’s Fake News Crackdown

Guest: Kelsey Griffiths
Timestamps: 44:46–46:45

• Profile: Brendan Carr, FCC Commissioner, emerges as the Trump administration’s regulatory firebrand.
• Public Persona: Transition from reserved academic to outspoken media adversary; mirrors Trump’s combative stance with “all news is good news.”

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Notable Quotes & Moments

• On Nvidia’s Strength:
  “The orders from China is very positive. It's something that investors have been looking for for a long time from Nvidia.”
  — Carmen Reinecke (03:27)

• On AI Hype Cycles:
  “I've seen some really goofy estimates that companies are going to be spending on this, you know, in perpetuity in the trillions and that's really not how technology works. People want an end to it.”
  — Kim Forrest (07:33)

• On Kalshi’s Regulatory Fight:
  “This is about something other than the merits, which is what I'm focused on. I don't know what the AG is focused on, but you know, she is up for re election… We look forward to fighting it in court.”
  — Tariq Mansour (16:56)

• On AI’s Transformative Power:
  “We are seeing…a new revolution akin to the industrial revolution…it's going to be much, much bigger than that. So personally I actually feel deeply privileged to be part of this transformation.”
  — Ugud Amar, Expo (33:43)

• On Asian Tech's OpenClaw Adoption:
  “OpenClaw is sort of a developer phenomenon but in China and Asia it's a consumer phenomenon. This desire to see agentic autonomous agents used in your personal life.”
  — Caroline Hyde (28:22)

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Timestamps for Key Segments

• Nvidia’s Market Moves & China Orders: 01:36–05:49
• Investor Perspective on Nvidia/AI: 06:25–12:28
• Kalshi Interview – Legal Battle: 14:36–22:09
• Anthropic’s Lawsuit & Government Contracts: 22:19–25:22
• Chinese Market & OpenClaw Surge (Tencent, Minimax, Jeep): 27:15–29:38
• Expo’s Cybersecurity AI: 29:38–35:06
• Gradient Ventures on AI Startup Investing: 35:46–40:57
• Disney’s CEO Transition and Tech Strategy: 42:12–44:03
• FCC and Fake News Crackdown: 44:46–46:45

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Conclusion

This episode offers a robust snapshot of global tech through the lens of Nvidia’s exceptional run even as markets wobble. AI continues to dominate the tech and investment narrative, both for its innovation and its hype cycles, while legal and geopolitical headwinds force both legacy media and frontier tech companies to adapt. With perspectives from public markets, regulatory battles, AI founders, and VCs, this episode delivers a comprehensive pulse on the future of tech in global business.

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Transcript

[Carol Massar]

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[Darin Eshirazi]

But time's too tight for more promises.

[Caroline Hyde]

So let's talk about results. At IBM, we work with our employees to integrate technology right into the systems they need. Now a global workforce of 300,000 can use AI to fill their HR questions,

[Darin Eshirazi]

resolving 94% of common questions, not noise.

[Caroline Hyde]

Proof of how we can help companies get smarter by putting AI where it actually pays off, deep in the work that moves the business. Let's create smarter business.

[Carol Massar]

IBM Small businesses are the pulse of every community. They bring people together, create opportunities and drive growth. Chase for Business helps business owners like you with personalized guidance and convenient digital tools all in one place. With that guidance and your determination, you can take your business farther and help build a brighter future for your community. Learn [e-mail] business chase for business make more of what's yours the Chase Mobile app is available for select mobile devices. Message and data rates may apply JPMorgan Chase Bank NA Member FDIC Copyright 2026 JPMorgan Chase Co. Bloomberg Audio Studios Podcasts Radio News.

[Caroline Hyde]

Bloomberg Tech is live from coast to coast with Caroline Hyde in New York and Ed Ludlow in San Francisco. This is Bloomberg Tech. Coming up, Nvidia says it's now getting orders from China and ramping up sales of its H200 chips. Plus Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang says the open claw is quote, definitely the next Chachi beat a comment that sent Chinese stocks higher. And we bring you an exclusive interview with the CEO of Kalshi as after Arizona filed criminal charges against the prediction market platform. But first we check in on these public markets roiled by geopolitics, by macro events. And we keep an eye on what's happening in terms of the stock market. Nasdaq 100 is off by 5.10 of a percent. The S&P is lower after two straight days of gains. And this is as we see oil spiral higher, up more than 5.5%. This is a question conflict in the Middle east that seems to be accelerating and we're starting to see infrastructure continue to be targeted. That is of course, spiraling concerns about oil prices. Now all of this is an inflationary pressure on the back of PPE numbers today that show that inflationary pressure is already here in the United States. What will the Fed do later today? All eyes on macro policy at this moment but there's also all eyes on what's happening in terms of individual stocks and there is a macro tail at play when it comes to Nvidia and the demand for compute. And also what's happening with China. Demand signals actually a sign off from the Chinese government. At least we're starting to see a bit more of an appetite for buying into Nvidia stocks as GTC continues. Let's just get more context on the market moves. What's happening with Nvidia? Bloomberg, Carmen Reineke joins us. Look, Nvidia is one of the few names that pushes to the green today alongside the likes of Micron and others common. How is Nvidia able to shake off what for the rest of the market is angst about the Middle east and inflation?

[Carmen Reinecke]

Yeah, I mean, it really seems like investors are getting a little bit more confident within video here. I think that Jensen is said a lot during this conference that hopefully, you know, making people feel a little bit more confident. I mean, the orders from China is very positive. It's something that investors have been looking for for a long time from Nvidia. And he also said yesterday that they are looking at a very large number to go into buybacks and the dividend for Nvidia. So I think these are all things that are positive and are maybe helping the stock sort of shake off some of those macro pressures that we're seeing really weigh down the rest of the market.

[Caroline Hyde]

What have been extraordinary is that $1 trillion figure initially said didn't spur any absolute buying. But then he's trying to articulate that that 1 trillion can then be added to other new products that are coming to the market is, well, likely to inject upside to that number.

[Carmen Reinecke]

Yeah, exactly. And I think that upside is really important. He did clarify very specifically that that doesn't include, you know, the new products that are coming out. So, you know, a lot of the I think is baked into the stock. But that potential for future growth, which is what everybody expects from Nvidia but wants to see even more of, is really positive here. Especially when we're seeing a backdrop that has so much uncertainty for the rest of the market. And you know, I mean, Nvidia is still the biggest stock in the s and P500. So seeing it go up when sort of the rest of the market goes down is significant because if you're selling the S and P, you know, you're also selling a lot of Nvidia.

[Caroline Hyde]

He just of course speaks in big numbers, talking about how computing demand has increased by 1 million times in the last two years. But he's pushing forward on where next for compute and that's going to be driven by agenda. You saw his adoption of this chat CBD moment for OpenClaw, really helping Chinese names. Is it going to have a read across to the U.S. you know, that's

[Carmen Reinecke]

something we're definitely looking for. And I mean, I guess it sort of remains to be seen. You know we, we know that, you know, what Nvidia does definitely moves, you know, stocks of other companies that are related and we see that on a global scale. So you know, we've seen through gtc, you know, companies that have partnerships with Nvidia get some investor confidence or some buying into their, their stock. They see no reason why we wouldn't see more buying into certain US Companies sort of based on this news. And you know, going forward there, I've

[Caroline Hyde]

already seen certain analysts trying to talk about the companies that will be benefited by Claw. Open Claw, the Claw six. We'll see if that catches on. Bloomberg's Carmen Reinecke, thank you very much Indeed. Now Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang was indeed articulating this projection for $1 trillion plus in AI chip sales and the fact that of course it doesn't include other product offerings. Now we've already got the signal of the upside Bloomberg Intelligence noting that this reinforces confidence in AI demand through 2027 and Nvidia's market leadership. Let's get more on that with Kim Forrest, CIO of Boca Capital Partners. Look, we're used to Jensen Huang being optimistic. Are you buying into it, Kim?

[Kim Forrest]

Kind of, sort of. I mean he really is the poster child of a build out. Right. And for the longest time until this gtc, we've all made the assumption that this is going to happen at large data centers and that is the who the company was serving. Probably the hidden gem in his comments were that only 60% of the chips that they're selling right now are going towards those large data centers. But then corporations who are trying to figure out maybe developing some in house, you know, uses of this are now buying their products. And I think that's really interesting and kind of takes a little pressure off of the company because it isn't solely dependent on, you know, what Core Weave and Microsoft and you know, the rest of the gang are buying.

[Caroline Hyde]

Perhaps it's not just about GPUs, CPUs, even LPs, is actually about the software side. And how much did you pay attention to Nemo Claw for example, the way in which seems as though Jensen Huang is trying to get in on the enterprise desire to have safe Agent Ki Right.

[Kim Forrest]

And I, you know I talk to a lot of people in my job and I have heard more and more companies rolling out agentic services for their employees making them more productive. Now you know what the spending on that is going to be? It's anyone's guess. I am going to point back to the.com era which it wasn't just about pets.com and stamps.com and all that kind of goofy stuff. But rolled into that was the Y2K conversion that a lot of companies were undergoing. And one of the flaws in thinking by investors during that time was that spending was going to go on in perpetuity. What companies were spending on it for that Y2K conversion was thought to, you know, it will bloom and blossom into other areas and it didn't happen. And I think this is a warning for this technology as well. I've seen some really goofy estimates that you know companies are going to be spending on this, you know, in perpetuity in the trillions and that's really not how technology works. People want an end to it and they just want to use the build out and they just want to use the technology for productivity. So investors beware.

[Caroline Hyde]

Well how for should the warnings to investors be about in perpetuity? The pricing of memory going ever higher at the moment. We seem to be getting endless calls that this is going to be at least until maybe 2030 but there's going to be demand destruction and that's going to be focused on in Micron's numbers after the bell.

[Kim Forrest]

Exactly. And Micron is a really great example of this. Right. Because they had been participating in, and I love to say this word oligopoly about six companies that were making NAND and DRAM memory. Right. And what would happen was somebody would bring on a new supply and that would just kill NAND prices because it was kind of a commodity. Well even though high band with memory is you know, a gating factor now for a lot of these build up AI build outs at some point, you know we're going to go back into that boom bust cycle even though it's exotic and in demand. So I think that Micron just announced that they're adding capacity to a Taiwan plant and you know, look for the other players in this area to start doing that as well. And again it's going, it's not going to go upwards to the right like it has been the demand or the pricing, you know because we're going to have supply demand here entering into this and these are even a smaller oligopoly of about three players right now that are making this high bandwidth memory.

[Caroline Hyde]

How much of these stocks pricing in already the enthusiasm here Kim, because we're seeing Micron rally into its numbers. Are people already expecting just killer results and can that what more can the CEO really talk about?

[Kim Forrest]

Absolutely. I mean they are expecting killer results but the physical world is going to impact their, their, you know, results too because there's only, you can only ship what you make and they are running up everybody in this industry is running up against you know, supply problems and you can see that as the chip builders are complaining about it. So I would be I am very enthusiastic about Micron for the long haul. I think they're a great company but in the short term I wonder can they ship enough to satisfy investors demand And I guess tonight we'll see.

[Caroline Hyde]

We've also seen perhaps a slight quietening of the anxiety around the trade just from a can we afford it? Will it really come do we need this level of datacenter build out perspective? Kim, where is the anxiety right now for you when it comes to the still optimism we see baked into the stock market?

[Kim Forrest]

Sure. Well I have some real questions about how much capacity is needed. While I'm a huge bull on AI, I understand what it can do. I am not still convinced that large language models are the way forward forever and ever. Amen. I think they've done wonderful things in solving natural language processing but I don't know that that is what we're going to do and let's say five years. So my, my fear still is that we are building our investors are building their expectations on what they know today. And I think things can change very, very quickly with innovations like I don't know, Open Claw or whatever it is. You know where I'm sure where companies are using less processing power and getting more bang for the buck.

[Caroline Hyde]

Unpredictability in the stock market. That's exactly what Howard Marks was is calling out today when it comes to I can Forrest CIO at Capital Partners. Great to have some time with you. Now coming up we're going to be speaking with Tariq Mansour Kyle, she CEO and co founder as after Arizona filed criminal charges against the prediction market platform. More next. This is Bloomberg Tech.

[Carol Massar]

Effective marketing is smarter, not louder. Cutting edge technology alone won't deliver better experiences or outcomes. Adobe helps marketers use data and AI to drive smarter engagement, reduce noise and use AI effectively and responsibly the brands winning in the AI era aren't the ones chasing every trend. They're the ones with the right systems and strategy. It's time to lead with insight, agility and innovation. It starts with Adobe. I'm Carol Massar.

[Tim Stanweck]

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[Yukyung Lee]

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[Caroline Hyde]

Arizona has filed criminal charges against Kalshee, accusing the company of operating an illegal gambling business. New ex Tim Stanwick joins us now and Kalshi co founder and CEO Tim, take it away.

[Tim Stanweck]

We're joined by Tariq Mansour. He's the CEO and co founder of the Kalshee Tarek. Good to see you. Thanks for joining us on this. Look, even though other state regulators have taken steps to crack down on what they say is unlicensed betting on call, she said Arizona appears to be the first to escalate to criminal charges. What is your response to these charges?

[Tariq Mansour]

Look, I mean, these charges have nothing to do with gambling or demerits. If it was about gambling or demerits, they would let the judicial process find its course in the federal courts. You know, five days ago on Thursday, Kalshee filed suit against Arizona in federal courts on the metz on whether Kalshi is subject to exclusive jurisdiction of the cftc. And you know, we're confident in our position and wanted to let the court process play out and instead of letting that happen, the Arizona Attorney General decided to subvert the judicial process and weaponize it and go to state court and file these criminal charges, which, you know, we view as meritless. And based on this, we see this as a total overstep and we look forward to fighting it in court.

[Tim Stanweck]

Well, experts are saying this could be the first of, of many charges such as these from, from other states too. How does it change your legal strategy?

[Tariq Mansour]

Well, this is the whole point of federal preemption. So this is not about gambling. The, the charges that the Attorney General filed are not about gambling. They're not even about sports only. They're about prediction markets writ large. It's just, you know, attacking the entire business model. And nothing prevents from the same Attorney General or others from fighting same criminal charges against derivatives markets writ large. They could file the same exact charges under the same analysis against CME or ICE or nasdaq. And that's the whole point of federal regulation of these financial exchanges is to prevent this sort of chaos and this, these sort of attacks on these businesses that could be political in nature or other. And that's a very important distinction.

[Tim Stanweck]

Well, I read the charging document from the Attorney general. It has 20 charges. They're mostly about betting and wagering. When it comes to sports, there's some election stuff in there. Would you ever consider limiting your business in Arizona or other states to, to things that these AGs don't seem to have problems with, like economic data, the price of Bitcoin, what markets are going to do predictions around those things?

[Tariq Mansour]

Look, I mean, the AG also claim that we have war markets, which is incorrect. It's either flat out a lie or misinformed take, which is unfortunate for someone, you know, filing criminal charges against the company. What's more important here again is this is not about the merits. If it's about the merits, let's let the judicial process run its course in federal courts. This is about something other than the merits, which is what I'm focused on. I don't know what the AG is focused on, but you know, she is up for re election. You know, it does, they did some press, it does seem to be making some buzz. But what I'm really focused on is building a great product for our millions of customers, out of which close to 400,000 are in Arizona and fighting any of these baseless cases in courts, which was, which we're going to continue doing.

[Tim Stanweck]

So you're fighting the cases. As I mentioned, Arizona is not the only state to take issue with your Business. What happens ultimately if courts do side with states? What does it mean for the future of your company?

[Tariq Mansour]

We believe in the rule of law. Right. We will always abide by court decisions. The law applies to us, but it also applies to the government, including state governments. And that's a very important thing. Right. This is really not about our business model. Again, if it was about our business model, we would be focused on the federal courts and the lawsuit about demerits. This is a broader attack. And you know, many states have sided with us and have grant us a preliminary injunction agreeing with our legal analysis. We have spent four years getting regulated by the federal government and we have a federal government in the CFTC that is coming strongly in favor of our position. Filing these charges is a total, total overstep and an overreach from an AG that's up for re election. And we find that unfortunate. But we will stay focused on what we do best, which is building a great product.

[Tim Stanweck]

So certainly the cftc, we know where the CFTC stands and we know where Michael, Mike Selig stands on this. We don't know where courts stand on this. And I'm wondering if, if, if we see a state like Nevada, for example, block access to your business, what will you do? Will you continue to operate or will you, will you say, okay, we're not going to operate in Nevada?

[Tariq Mansour]

Well, first of all, let's get, let's get to that point and you know, we'll have to make a decision as a company. What we do, what I can reiterate is we will 100% abide by the law. That's what we will do as a company. It's always been our position. That's why we spent four years getting regulated upfront. Regulatory first as a company and always abide by the law. But what I always say, the law applies to us as much as it applies to the government. And when government oversteps the law and goes out of bound, we're going to fight that in court, which we look forward to.

[Tim Stanweck]

How long does that process take? Because it seems like there's a regulatory limbo happening. You're, it's almost like your legal team is going to have to play whack a mole with all these states that are, that are filing suit or bringing criminal charges. How long is this going to take?

[Tariq Mansour]

And gladly we have a legal team to handle these types of things and we focus on, and you know, maybe it's a question for them. I mean, look, whatever, whatever long it takes, we're going to Fight for prediction markets. I spent eight years building this company, four out of which half of which are getting regulated upfront. I really believe in this marketplace. I'm very excited about the growth that we're seeing. It's one of the fastest growing company companies in America right now. And so what I'm going to be focused on is keep building a great product. And that's what's sort of most important for me. The more important sort of question is, you know, when, when it comes to this is not really about, you know, whether this is gambling or not. It's not really about state versus federal, which are both coexisting and both growing, both models. This really is turning into sort of some special interests that like the status quo. The status quo is working very well for monopolies, but not for the consumers that are flocking to prediction markets right now, which we're going to keep fighting for.

[Tim Stanweck]

Tarek There is this perception though that people think this is gambling. An Ipsos survey from just a few weeks ago, for example, shows 61% of adults say prediction market trading is closer to gambling. 8% say it's closer to investing. So there is this public perception that doesn't necessarily match with what you say the platform is. How do you respond to that and how do you battle that? Like, how is this not gambling?

[Tariq Mansour]

I haven't really looked at these polls. You know, the thing I will say is there's always been a battle of whether financial derivatives are gambling. Grain futures were called gambling in the 1800s and there was a Supreme Court decision that said even though there is speculation, these products have financial structures the financial markets and thus are going to fall under financial market jurisdiction. So I always say this, you know, whether something feels and looks like gambling doesn't necessarily make it gambling. Speculation exists in all financial markets. If we're going to take a line that speculation is gambling, then the stock market with retail participation is gambling. Then buying options for retail or zero days value options is gambling. Then retail buying crypto is gambling. The more important line and the historical line that we've been taking under the law, but also, you know, as you think about it societally, is, is the business model a gambling business model, which is a model where the revenue of the business and the profits are equal to the customer's losses, in which case the incentive is to promote more losses and block the winners, or is it an open, free and fair marketplace where people can enter in and out freely and transparently, which is a financial exchange

[Tim Stanweck]

which Kalship falls under Tarek Mansour Kalshi Co Founder and CEO Tarek, always good to speak with you. Thanks so much for joining us. Caroline, back to you.

[Caroline Hyde]

Fantastic interview, Tim, thanks for bringing it. The Trump administration is dialing up efforts to oust Anthropic from all federal agencies, saying the US Government has reason to question whether the firm is a trusted partner after the company asked for limits on how its technology was used by the Department of Defense. Let's get the latest on this saga. Bloomberg's reporter Rachel Metz. This is now not just in the public court of the media, this is going to the actual court for a fight out.

[Yukyung Lee]

Yeah. So as part of this fight between Anthropic and the federal government, the Anthropic has filed two lawsuits and the one in California has a lot of action happening. Yesterday the federal government said we are going to fight. We think that Anthropic technology became an unacceptable risk essentially to the military because Anthropic would not agree with a change to its contract that the military wanted earlier this year.

[Caroline Hyde]

Emil Michael is the U.S. under Secretary of Defense for Research and Engineering. It was really sort of been the public voice of this and he's talking about how there was hostility thrown around by Anthropic during the negotiations. He feels and their fear, it seems to be, is that in some way the technology can be manipulated if it remains within federal use. Anthropic, if it feels its red lines across, could just go in there and, and change the way in which the technology works. Is there going to be grounds for this, Rachel, as a legal argument?

[Yukyung Lee]

I mean I think that that is really alarming sounding, right? Like the idea that if you could be using technology in a war fighting situation and then the company that has built the technology could do something about it. For Anthropic part, they said in a statement. Dario Amadi, Anthropic CEO, said in a statement in February the company has never done something like that and really what the company wants is just some specific limits on how its technology is deployed. While the military is saying we want to be able to use that technology for any lawful purpose, something that Anthropic, it alleges refused to accept due to its usage policies for cloud.

[Caroline Hyde]

Really they're talking about their long standing commitment to harnessing AI to protect our national security. Is what Anthropic saying. How is this affecting or could affect the business? Briefly, Rachel it sort of affect, could

[Yukyung Lee]

affect it in two different, different ways. On the one hand, this has seemed to be a huge boost for Anthropic especially as a consumer product, which typically it is not thought of as a consumer product. It's chat bot clogged. But the app has gotten extremely popular, big boost in popularity. And at the same time the company says this could be hundreds of millions or even billions of dollars in damage. And it cited in a court filing last week some specific ways that it's already starting to harm the company financially.

[Caroline Hyde]

Rachel Metz on the latest with Anthropic and the Pentagon. We appreciate it. Welcome back to Bloomberg Tech. We check in on these markets which in many ways are in the eye of a geopolitical storm, a Macro storm off by 5.10of a cent on the Nasdaq 100. More broadly, stocks have turned low on the S&P 500 because Brent crude is on the higher side. Well the 5% higher. The conflict with the Middle east within the Middle east seems to be well worsening rather than coming to any near conclusion. We're currently seeing therefore inflationary pressure be the key concern for the market. Pie readings coming in today showing that there's inflation pressure even before the conflict erupted some 19 days ago. And we look towards what the Federal Reserve will do in response that meeting today. We're not expecting any change in rates but certainly a conversation to be had with the Fed chair. Let's move on and have a look at what tech stocks are doing because in amongst NASDAQ 100 which is down video trying to do its best in the green up 3. 10 of a percent. Now this is as we have some extraordinary dictations coming from the CEO Jensen Huang who's talking about this moment in Open Claw. The fact that we've got a new chat GPT on our hands in the world of agentic AI, it is driving those words driving Chinese stocks in particular Minimax up almost 20% as they release new agency AI tools for its user base Jeep who is up almost 20% as well. Look, these are record highs at the moment due to open Claw frenzy that has beset the entire Chinese world alike. Look, let's stick more broadly with Chinese stocks because another giant that's been betting on the use of open Claw style agents is Tencent, which actually just released its earnings results showing the company plans to at least double its investments in AI in 2026. Please to say here in New York for the time being is Bloomberg's Asia stocks reporter Yukyung Lee. Great to have you here for a couple of months. You can talk to us a little bit about Tencent and what they said on the numbers.

[Yukyung Lee]

Yeah I think there are three key takeaways from their earnings this morning. I think number one is this top line growth. It said 13% sales growth for the December quarter which is its fifth straight quarterly results. Those posted double digit growth and that was in line with expectation thanks to its advertisement and gaming department. So I think that's the first key takeaway and the secondly and more importantly is this investment. The company said it's going to double its investment and that's going to cause some share buybacks. So companies going to scale back the share buyback so we can bankroll the investment that's going to at least double this year. And I think thirdly, our third takeaway is actually the company's mention of the open cloud. The company mentioned how it's going to use open cloud and how it's going to help the company's Strategy using the OpenCloud. So the company's CEO Puny Ma said OpenCloud is actually an inspiration, great inspiration for the company's WeChat related ecosystem and it also said is helping Tencent leverage its cloud computing. So as the mention of the open cloud top line growth is doubling of the investment. These are the key takeaways aways from this Tencent earnings this morning.

[Caroline Hyde]

It's so fascinating because here OpenClaw is sort of a developer phenomenon but in China and Asia it's a consumer phenomenon. This desire to see agentic autonomous agents used in your personal life. How are other giants like Alibaba thinking about this as we look towards their earnings coming out?

[Yukyung Lee]

Yeah, absolutely. So Alibaba is reporting their earnings on Thursday before the market US time. I think there are several things that investors are looking forward to. I think number one is investment plan and the monetization flavor is artificial intelligence. Overnight we heard from Alibaba that it's going to hike the prices of its own AI storage and computing products by as much as 34% and investor cheered the news to say sending the stocks up as much as 4% in Hong Kong on Wednesday. So investors have been looking for answers I on how the company is going to monetize the investment and justify the massive investment they are spending on the air. So that's more details on this monetization. Monetization plan is definitely going to on the minds of investors during the Alibaba earnings conference call as well as plans on investment on other areas such as quick commerce. The company has been spending a lot to catch up with rivals and also definitely a continued growth. The investor will be looking for signs of continue New growth in its top line and bottom line.

[Caroline Hyde]

You can. I'm so pleased you're going to be sticking around for a few months. We appreciate you joining Lee over from Asia here in New York talking all about Alibaba and Tencent. Look, now let's pivot a bit to the private markets. Cybersecurity startup Expo has raised $120 million at a valuation of more than a billion. Now, the round was led by DFJ growth in North Zone and comes as more companies are focusing on the threats of AI powered cyber attacks. Pleased to speak with Expo CEO. You go to more, I mean, talk to us about first and foremost the money, what you use it for, how you continue to power Expo growth.

[Ugud Amar]

Thank you very much for having me. You cannot define defend against machine speed attacks with human speed tools. And that is what Expo is all about. Last year we proved that completely autonomous attacks are possible by entering our bot on the HackerOne platform. And within a few months it became the top hacker in the world. After that, we quickly signed up over 100 corporate customers and we now raising this money in order to better serve those customers and to very close quickly further develop our products and go to market.

[Caroline Hyde]

Okay, so what's so fascinating about your tool is that basically agentic AI is a force in terms of our defensive posture, but it's also a force in terms of our aggressive posture. The fact that people can fight back and you're using in many ways is the ability to find vulnerabilities ahead of bad actors. How are we seeing cyber attacks more broadly, broadly scale in this moment? How much is there an aggression from those that are wanting to do ill?

[Ugud Amar]

Absolutely. So attackers will and are already using AI. But the good news is that defenders can do it too. By thinking like an attacker, our agentic AI system can find the flaws before the bad guys do. So the danger is not really AI itself, but the danger is defending modern systems. With yesterday's thoughts, talk to us about

[Caroline Hyde]

what we're seeing in terms of you beefing up the ability to scale. Is it about people? Because many in this moment might say, well, with the rise of magenta Ki, you need less talent. You just can empower the talent you already have.

[Ugud Amar]

It's, it's both. So absolutely, we already have some of the very best human hackers in the world working for us, as well as a fantastic go to market team. Really, we've got the combination of both AI talent and security engineers. However, we also need to bring the product to market and the go to market effort is still very much a human, a human led activity. A lot of the money will also go kind of lead towards inference in order to speed up our development.

[Caroline Hyde]

Where are you looking for, for that sort of compute? How are you managing to ensure you've got the right inference power when you need it?

[Ugud Amar]

So we actually work with all the frontier labs, all of them give us special access to early, early models and that allows us to you always be in front of the very latest, very latest developments. We also of course pretty large consumers have special deals with the large hyperscalers.

[Caroline Hyde]

You are so fascinating Expos clearly fascinating but your background as a computer scientist professor at Oxford, decades the fact that you helped build GitHub GitHub Copilot as well. When we see this further around Agent Ki, when you see the hype that's happening worldwide around an open core and an open source model that can revolutionize personal AI, how does that make you feel? How real do you feel this moment is?

[Ugud Amar]

It's an unbelievable time to be building. We are seeing we were in the middle of a new revolution akin to the industrial revolution of previous century, but it's going to be much, much bigger than that. So personally I actually feel deeply privileged to be part of this transformation.

[Caroline Hyde]

So briefly, you're optimistic at this moment rather than any concerns, worries, security issues.

[Ugud Amar]

Absolutely. So the key about agentic AI systems is that they will actually amplify what we can do as humans. And that's certainly true in cybersecurity. We've got one of our customers, Cesnan, sometimes called the Google of the Czech Republic. They've been using our system for over a year. And one quote from one of their engineers stuck with me. Every Expo agent is like a new team member in security. We vastly constrained by the scarcity of talent and so having the ability to suddenly scale and do all the things that we know we should be doing but were not able to do before, that's, that's fantastic. And I believe that the same is true in many other, many other fields of human activity.

[Caroline Hyde]

Ugud Amar, great to have some time with you. Expo CEO on the fundraise. Gradient Vent Ventures. Well, it's raised $220 million for its fifth fund, doubling down on its strategy of backing the next wave of founders at seed stage, early stage now with his latest raise, the firm now manages almost $1.2 billion across its funds. Pleased to say that we're joined by Darin Eshirazi, his gradient general partner. And so do we move away from any of the learned performance already or do you double down on the conviction that you already have? Is it still about generative AI and the tooling?

[Darin Eshirazi]

Thanks for having me. Yeah, I mean we have been investing in AI since, since the very beginning. And our focus has really been partnering with founders at the earliest stages when founders are really starting out with a brand new idea. And we backed hundreds of companies and we've been fortunate enough to partner with these companies from the very beginning, some of which are in an apartment or our founders that have never even been in business before. And our focus is on helping them scale up and really find the next round of funding and to really partner with these founders all the way through IPO in some cases.

[Caroline Hyde]

I mean, you've been doing this since 2017, since before Chachi Beat, since before I got cool, dare we say it, in fact, what 500i founders already. Talk us through the wins that you've already seen. Because look, the LPs need convincing at this moment. Where were you able to show your prowess to those to come back and re reinvest with you?

[Darin Eshirazi]

Yeah, I mean, you know, I think over the course of the last 10 years that we've been investing in AI, we've seen the number of companies that come through our doors really accelerate and increase. We used to see about 100 companies in AI per year. And we were sort of the oddball venture fund that was really, really niche and looking at really technical people that were researchers or people that were not necessarily focused on building big businesses in the eyes of a lot of other venture capitalists. But we saw that the chat moment was going to come. We saw that the Transformer paper which came out a month before Gradient launched, was really going to be the epoch moment for AI. And you know, my partner Zach and I, we saw that the ability for people to use these models as sort of a, an intelligent body and an intelligent co pilot was really going to be the future of the Internet and the future of technology. And we partner partnered with these founders. Now we see 2000 companies a year come through our doors and pitch us with some new AI technology or AI capability. And we have to pick about 10 to 15 of those that we decide to partner with. So the job has gotten more difficult in terms of volume, but it's also gotten a lot more interesting because of the number of technologies and number of founders that we see and what they are working on. Everything from wafer scale compute companies to open claw renditions or you know, individual models that are for specific tasks.

[Caroline Hyde]

What's also got more Difficult is just the size of the rounds. Look, we've just had the biggest sort of seed, what was it, billion that Yann Lecun has just been raising over in Europe? I mean, coming out with 3 billion in terms of valuation, you're seeing Miramorati raise an extraordinary fund. People are calling these like mango seeds or avocado seeds. As Ed loves to say, how can you compete?

[Darin Eshirazi]

So that's a really interesting question, is that we actually think that there is a bubble in certain parts of AI. There are bubbles. There is a bubble in foundational model companies, contenders to OpenAI, contenders to Google, contenders to XI and Anthropic, and that's. Those are companies that we don't fund. What we really want to be focused on are AI infrastructure companies and AI application companies. And those seed rounds tend to be really well priced and tend to be ones that we can invest in and lead with an average $3 million check and own 10 to 15% of those companies. We actually don't see the valuation issues in the areas that we want to focus in when it comes to AI. When it comes to a lot of these other companies that are raising $1 billion here or there, it seems as though those are a lot of venture capitalists or investors that want to chase the next open AI. But realistically, the moat at the model layer is just capital. How much money can you raise? You know, because you buy data and compute and so where we focus, the valuations are favorable and the round sizes are favorable and we, we believe that that will continue.

[Caroline Hyde]

What is it like in terms of diversifying your LP base? Because it has a very interesting story gradient. It came out of Google, but then you brought on external money. Does that change the way in which you have to invest? Because lots of people have different strategies, the why they're coming to you with their money.

[Darin Eshirazi]

It was extremely challenging, challenging to raise from LPs, especially in this climate. I mean, we're very fortunate that we were able to get it done in about nine months. But you know, before, for our prior four funds, Google was the single LP and they've been an incredible partner. I don't think we could have launched an AI seed fund in 2017 when everyone was looking at crypto without the help of Google. And so now I think we decided we wanted to diversify our LP base mainly because it gives us a of lot, lot more capabilities. We have partners in the LP base for our companies and we also wanted the ability to sort of scale up our capital base and have that flexibility. But it was challenging because a lot of people haven't seen liquidity, especially in the institutional LP network. Fortunately, we found LPs that believed in our vision and mission and wanted to partner with us over the long term. And now we have a collection of not just Google, but many other amazing institutions, including being companies like Mercado Libre, which we're very closely partnered with, as well as a number of other insurance companies, institutions and foundations. And so I think that given the climate, it is challenging to raise, especially for a seed fund when you have Andreessen and general catalyst raising 10 $20 billion funds. But I think we've been able to articulate our strategy in focusing on the areas where there isn't a bubble when valuations are favorable, and where we can partner with these founders when it's just an idea and mature and grow with them.

[Caroline Hyde]

Love that clarity and your candor. Thanks so much. Darren Shirazi of Gradient. Congratulations on the new fund. Now coming up, Disney's new CEO takes over. As the media landscape shifts, government scrutiny increases. More on that next. This is Bloomberg Tech. This is Tom Keene inviting you to join us for the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. It's about making you smarter every business day.

[Ugud Amar]

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[Caroline Hyde]

Bloomberg Surveillance Essential listening each and every business day. Disney's annual shareholder meeting is today, and it marks a leadership handoff. Josh DeMaros set to take over as CEO from Bob Iger, and he steps in a challenging moment, inheriting what is a bit of an underperforming stock and a media landscape still in flux. For more, Bloomberg's Chris Palmeri, who leads our media and entertainment team, joins us. Look for the second stint to Bob Iger. He came on in what, November 2022, and the stock has only gone up 9% compared to 70% for the S and P and and huge moves for Netflix. What does Josh need to prove to an investor base today.

[Chris Palmeri]

Well, tomorrow is coming from the theme park business. That's where he's his, his whole career has been. So we don't know to what extent he really understands the TV business and the film business that is still so critical to Disney. And there's just been a movement out of these stocks. You know, the streaming businesses haven't been as profitable as people hope. The traditional TV channels are just losing viewers and advertisers. So tomorrow has to articulate, articulate a strategy for that business that we really haven't heard from him yet.

[Caroline Hyde]

I mean he's got of course Dana Walden still on board when it comes to chief creative officer and all things streaming movies, that sort of ip. But he has done deals. He's got into Epic for example. How are we likely to see him bring all of these clustered sort of assets together?

[Chris Palmeri]

Well, we get a sense of his strategy is that he sees, you know, coming from the parks business, he's got that direct connection the to consumer and so he sees the Disney plus service as a, you know, direct consumer service and a way to tie in say the games like Fortnite, the Epic investment. And it's going to be a sort of a Disney universe and, and he's going to put this all, you know, sort of better, more connections directly with Disney fans who are, as we all know, rabid and money spending consumers.

[Caroline Hyde]

We'll see what he does with tech I VR and the like. Bloomberg's Chris Palmeri watching that shareholder meeting. Thanks so much. Now let's talk about the FCC chair, Brendan Carr. He is waging what he calls a crackdown on fake news as the Trump administration leans more heavily on regulators to challenge media coverage, raising new questions about the FCC's role and reach. New ex Kelsey Griffiths takes a closer look at Car himself, his rise within the administration. It's today's big take. It's a fascinating read and it all starts with how basically, basically a lot of Georgetown alumni were amazed to hear that apparently they'd gone to university with Brendan Kahn. They didn't realize he was not a big guy on campus or a big personality before the Trump administration.

[Kelsey Griffiths]

That's exactly right, Caroline. I spoke with some of Brendan Carr's former classmates who were shocked to realize in hindsight that they had even gone to university with him. And I think that is such a contrast to the man with see today who has become this flamethrower for the Trump administration. That's really in contrast to his kind of shy, quiet personality. That, you know, he's had over the years. So we've really seen a change in his demeanor, in the way that he communicates publicly as he's really stepped into this role as Trump's media enforcer.

[Caroline Hyde]

Take us on that evolution then of him, the personality, the man and the roles that he sort of almost said Gump, like, got him into this place with the FCC.

[Kelsey Griffiths]

So I've covered Brendan Carr since 2017 when he was a commissioner, and I think it's been really interesting to watch. He has always had a really congenial relationship with the press. Even now, he always stops by the press table at the FCC's public meetings, speaks with us banters. And I think that is sort of in contrast to the big swings that he's been taking in the last year or so against what he and Trump like to label as the fake news.

[Caroline Hyde]

He must have had to grow quite a thick skin just thinking of the fallout online, the pushback he's got from very famous comedians and the like. Just how does he serve the administration agenda at this moment?

[Kelsey Griffiths]

Brendan Carr has very much taken the position that whatever happens in the media, whatever fallout happens in the media is not really his problem. I asked him what it was like to publicly contribute to Jimmy Kimmel's temporary cancellation and then to face a lot of blowback for that, and he says he doesn't really care. He tries not to pay attention to the negative headlines and when he does see them, he kind of chuckles. So I think he kind of adopts that similar attitude that the president does, that all news is kind of good news.

[Caroline Hyde]

See if he's reading your piece to Bloomberg's Kelsey Griffiths. It's a great deep dive and a great big take. I urge everyone to go online and take a look and on the terminal. But that does it for this edition of Bloomberg Tech. You do not want to forget to check out our podcast. Find it on the terminal as well as online on Apple, Spotify and HiHot. From New York, this is Bloomberg Tech.

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