Bloomberg Tech — "Nvidia Wins US Approval to Sell H200 Chips to China"

Date: December 9, 2025
Hosts: Caroline Hyde (New York), Ed Ludlow (San Francisco)

Episode Overview

This episode breaks major news of President Trump’s decision to allow Nvidia to export its H200 AI chips to China—with a hefty 25% surcharge. The hosts unpack implications for Nvidia’s business, US-China tech competition, and broader market reactions. The episode also dives into ongoing antitrust saga around Warner Brothers Discovery’s sale, discussing rival bids, Hollywood's reaction, regulatory hurdles, and the role of politics. Additional segments cover Apple’s unexpected stock rally, Microsoft’s $17.5 billion AI investment in India, and the vision of AI infrastructure startups.

Key Segments & Discussions

1. Nvidia H200 Exports Approval: Geopolitics Meets Tech ([01:44]–[10:17], [26:02]–[31:27], [41:05]–[42:36])

• Breaking News: US President Trump authorizes Nvidia to sell H200 AI chips to China with a 25% tariff. This followed extended US restrictions on high-end chip exports, given national security worries.
• Immediate Market Impact: Nvidia's stock initially spiked on the news (“in Tuesday's session when news broke ... the stock spiked”), but faded as China prepared counter-restrictions ([02:29]).
• US & Chinese Calculus:
  • US is “prepared to give you something better”, but it’s unclear if China will buy with constraints still looming ([03:35]).
  • Chips will ship from Taiwan to the US, be hit by import tariffs, then be re-exported to China ([05:13]).

Notable Quote:

"We have shown a willingness to sell. We've, we've, we've effectively said, hey, we're prepared to give you something better. The question now is whether China actually wants that and how Beijing will react."
— [03:35], Host A

Expert Insights:

• Ian King (Bloomberg, Semiconductor Lead):

  • H200 is significantly better than previous models like H20, “a lot better than anything Chinese can make themselves” ([04:02]).
  • China’s own chip firms can’t match the scale or performance, due to supply and manufacturing constraints ([04:02]–[05:00]).
  • The arrangement involves import to the US (tariff is applied), then shipment to China ([05:13]).

• Oshko Deshkaya (Swissquote, Analyst):

  • For Nvidia, “which assumes China sales are now zero, every chip that's going to be sold to China is a bonus ... but for long-term forecasts, we still remain very much cautious” ([05:57]).
  • Geopolitical uncertainty means investors should not bank on new Chinese revenue ([06:59]).

• Mandeep Singh (Bloomberg Intelligence):

  • “When it comes to training, Nvidia is proven to be the one chip company that is the most useful for building the big training clusters ... just on the training side could be a pretty sizable $25 to $30 billion opportunity next year.” ([28:47])
  • Chinese companies want Nvidia clusters due to backward compatibility and longer useful life ([30:26]).
  • On Chinese domestic chip production: “The limit to China seems to be supply constraint.” ([31:27])
  • China maximizing “tokens per watt” and investing big in energy/capacity, but deployment will be staggered ([31:57]).

• Mike Shepard (Bloomberg, DC Correspondent):

  • Trump’s decision “broke an article of faith ... that the US must deny China and other adversaries access to the latest American technology.”
  • Administration argues that continued dominance requires competing inside China: “...if we want to compete with China globally and maintain the US edge ... we have to be able to compete inside China.” ([41:29])

Notable Quote:

"The administration is arguing that ... if we want to compete with China globally and maintain the US Edge in artificial intelligence, we have to be able to compete inside China."
— [41:29], Mike Shepard

2. Global AI & Chip Wars: China’s Capabilities and Risk ([08:13], [09:25], [33:07])

• Western vs. Chinese Tech:
  • “US technology is ahead... China is generally better in transforming investments into real revenue.” ([08:13], Oshko Deshkaya)
  • Market may be underestimating Chinese AI sophistication and TPU alternatives ([09:06])
  • Chinese approach: Open-sourcing models, building efficient AI ecosystems aiming for “agent” (intelligent assistant) use-cases ([33:07])

Notable Quote:

“They want to build an ecosystem outside of China ... trying to disrupt, distill a lot of their models to smaller versions so they can run on phones ... They have espoused cost and efficiency.”
— [33:16], Mandeep Singh

3. Apple’s AI “Weakness” Turns to Strength ([22:12]–[25:33])

• Market Perception Shift:
  • Apple’s stock rises, challenging Nvidia for top valuation. Investors now see Apple as a safe haven amid rising doubts about AI hype ([22:12], [22:42]).
• Analyst Views:
  • Carmen Reinecke (Bloomberg): “People are getting more worried about the AI trend. Apple ... benefited because it's not seen as a huge AI play.” ([22:42])
  • Investors anticipate Apple adopting mainstream AI carefully; major upgrade cycle coming with iPhone 17 ([22:42]–[24:29])
  • Apple’s valuation is near historic highs despite modest revenue growth ([23:50]).

Notable Quote:

“What we've seen is ... little bit more shine around the new iPhone, iPhone 17. The big screen story for Apple ... is the upgrade cycle ... and analysts and investors are starting to see that happen and they're excited...”
— [22:42], Carmen Reinecke

4. Warner Brothers Discovery Bidding War: Netflix vs. Paramount-Skydance ([10:46]–[21:43], [26:02]–[48:21])

• The Bidders and the Board:
  • Netflix and Paramount/Skydance compete for Warner Bros Discovery. Paramount’s bid: $30/share (all cash); Netflix: $27.75 (cash and stock). ([26:02])
  • Netflix’s Ted Sarandos is “charming and charismatic ... very good in those situations” ([12:51], Lucas Shaw)

Notable Quotes:

“...if Paramount stays on that current course, Ted has reason to be pretty confident because he already, he already won ... the risk ... would be if Paramount comes back and offers even more money.”
— [11:37], Lucas Shaw

• Antitrust Hurdles:

  • President Trump and Senator Warren raise red flags. Warren: a “five alarm antitrust fire” if the merger happens ([14:59]).
  • Jennifer Huddleston (Cato Institute): “One of the interesting things is ... this question of market definition. What is the market ... and what does that mean for the average consumer?” ([15:49])

• Regulatory Focus:

  • US and EU antitrust regulators may challenge the deal on consumer or competition grounds, especially under new 2023 guidelines ([17:28]–[17:51]).
  • Debate on consumer benefits, industry impact, content creation, and job protection ([18:39], [19:07]).

Notable Quote:

"What regulators should really be looking at is will this merger ... harm consumers in some way? ... This shouldn't be about a subjective idea of how many players should be in the streaming market."
— [16:45], Jennifer Huddleston

• Wall Street & Hollywood:

  • Ross Gerber (Gerber Kawasaki):

    • Netflix seen as “the big monster out here in Hollywood” ([43:01]), but “still think the Netflix bid is superior because ... with all-cash ... you give up all the upside of being a part of basically the most powerful company in the history of Hollywood” ([43:49]).
    • Paramount/Skydance bidders described as “more like a traditional studio ... and that's kind of why Hollywood wants them to succeed” ([46:30]).

  • On cable assets and politics: “The cable assets ... keeping it is really a power play because they want to take control of CNN ... that's just politics ... a big issue in this deal” ([45:29]).

5. Startups & Infrastructure: File's Rapid Rise and AI Compute Trends ([36:32]–[40:40])

• Startup Growth:

  • File (startup) raises $140M at a $4.5B valuation—3X jump in months ([36:32]).
  • CEO Bucky Agarwal: File uses Nvidia for custom, fast inference; M&A is key to acquiring talent in the AI race ([37:27], [38:03]).

• On Infrastructure:

  • “With ASICs, typically what you have to do is actually customizing the software ... with Nvidia, the software stack is so much more mature ... we can do these day zero releases ... that's one of the key reasons why we prefer Nvidia right now.” ([38:43], Bucky Agarwal)
  • Moving from H100s to Blackwell architecture for efficiency; “many players are actually going to move to Blackwells ... better price/performance” ([39:48]).

Notable Quote:

"M&A is definitely a very good way of doing that ... it's definitely a very fast race right now trying to become one of the largest companies ... one of the ways we get talent is buying companies."
— [37:29], Bucky Agarwal

Memorable Quotes By Segment

| Timestamp | Speaker | Quote | |-----------|------------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | 03:35 | Host A | “We've shown a willingness to sell ... The question now is whether China actually wants that and how Beijing will react.” | | 05:57 | Oshko D. | "For Nvidia ... every chip that's going to be sold to China is a bonus ... We still remain cautious ..." | | 28:47 | Mandeep S. | "Training ... Nvidia is proven to be ... the most useful for building the big training clusters ... $25-$30 billion opportunity next year." | | 41:29 | Mike S. | "If we want to compete with China globally ... we have to be able to compete inside China." | | 22:42 | Carmen R. | "Apple ... benefited because it's not seen as this huge AI play ... the upgrade cycle ... excited about it." | | 11:37 | Lucas S. | "If Paramount stays ... Ted has reason to be pretty confident ... the risk ... is if Paramount offers more." | | 16:45 | Jennifer H.| "What regulators should really be looking at is will this merger or acquisition harm consumers in some way?" | | 43:01 | Ross G. | "Netflix is sort of the big monster out here in Hollywood. And there's only so many places to sell your movies." |

Important Timestamps

• [01:44] — News breaks: US authorizes Nvidia H200 sales to China
• [02:29] — Stock market reaction and China’s potential countermeasures
• [03:35] — Nvidia-US-China: Semiconductor market calculus
• [05:57] — Analyst take: How much upside for Nvidia? Geopolitics trump sales
• [08:13] — China’s domestic capabilities, open source approach
• [09:25] — Google’s TPUs and risk to Nvidia’s dominance
• [10:46] — Warner Bros Discovery bidding war and antitrust concerns
• [14:59] — Political reactions and regulatory hurdles
• [22:12] — Apple’s market resilience amid AI doubt
• [28:01] — Microsoft’s $17.5B AI commitment in India, Google’s EU investigation
• [28:47] — Bloomberg Intelligence: Size of Chinese chip opportunity for Nvidia
• [31:27] — Chinese chip constraints: power, capacity, supply
• [36:32] — File’s fundraising and strategy in AI infrastructure market
• [41:05] — Politics of Nvidia export decision, national security debate
• [43:01] — Netflix’s Hollywood dominance, shareholder perspective

Tone & Language

• Conversational yet insightful; hosts trade rapid-fire questions and hot takes with invited Wall Street, tech, and policy analysts.
• Frequent reference to uncertainty, “wait and see”, and the “saga” unfolding in both the Nvidia-China and Warner Brothers-Netflix-Paramount storylines.
• Direct, business-focused, with candid interjections (“every chip to China is a bonus,” “Netflix is the big monster in Hollywood,” etc.)

Summary Takeaways

• Nvidia’s China Breakthrough: Major US policy shift creates limited window for Nvidia, but both business and geopolitical risks remain high. China’s response and domestic chip advances could further alter the landscape.
• AI Power Struggle: The US maintains technological lead, but China is innovating quickly—especially with open-source models and infrastructure efficiency.
• Apple’s Resurgence: "Low AI exposure" now seen as a resilience factor, with strong investor focus on tangible upgrade cycle.
• Hollywood’s Turning Point: The Warner Bros Discovery bidding war highlights the collision between tech disruption, traditional media interests, and regulatory politics.
• AI Infrastructure Gold Rush: Startups like File exploit the need for fast, scalable inference and ride Nvidia's software advantage, while planning for next-generation hardware transitions.

This episode captures technology’s high-stakes interplay among business, politics, and national security—where every chip, data center, or studio asset has global implications.