Bloomberg Tech — "Nvidia’s Forecast Lifts AI Trade"

Date: November 20, 2025
Hosts: Caroline Hyde (NY), Ed Ludlow (SF)
Guests: Jensen Huang (Nvidia CEO), Mike Shepard, Ayaka Yoshioka, Peter Elstrom, Carmen Reinicke, Reuben Roy, Nikesh Arora, Kunjan Sobhani

Episode Overview

This Bloomberg Tech episode centers on Nvidia’s blockbuster earnings forecast, a deep-dive into the company's continued dominance in AI hardware, and broader market implications. The show explores U.S.-China tech tensions, fresh developments in sovereign AI spending, big moves in cybersecurity, and the future of AI research. Exclusive interviews with Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang, commentary from industry analysts, and ongoing market reaction provide a rich context for investors and tech enthusiasts.

Key Segments & Discussion Points

1. Nvidia’s Earnings & AI “Supercycle”

Timestamps: 02:21–06:46, 11:24–17:13, 27:57–37:29, 41:06–46:10

• Nvidia reports $65 billion in sales for the fiscal fourth quarter, widely surpassing consensus and soothing market anxieties about an "AI bubble."

• CEO Jensen Huang (in an exclusive interview) emphasizes continued, strong demand for the new Blackwell architecture GPUs, with unprecedented order backlogs.

• Supply is effective and robust, dismissing major constraints. Plans for Vera Rubin systems (next-gen data center platforms) underscore Nvidia's future pipeline.

• Jensen Huang (03:48):

  “Sales are off the charts for Blackwell and Nvidia. GPUs in the cloud are sold out... We have a bunch of Vera Rubens coming. And so business is very, very strong. But we've planned our supply chain incredibly well.”

• EPS and revenue guidance easily exceeded expectations, with a $500 billion revenue forecast (through end of calendar 2026, excluding China).

Tech Bubble Debate & Market Impact

• Market reaction: Nasdaq spikes on Nvidia’s print, though gains fade later in the session (26:15, 49:06).
• The ongoing debate: Is this a new tech “supercycle,” or could an AI bubble still burst?
• Ayaka Yoshioka (15:16):

  “It's trading at 28 times next year's numbers. It's growing revenue at 60%, earnings at 50 plus percent. They're reasonable valuations. They are not astronomical like we saw during the tech bubble... but it all hinges on the duration of this growth rate.”

2. US-China Tech Tensions & Export Controls

Timestamps: 04:20–10:46, 31:13–34:45

• China remains effectively walled off—Nvidia’s official forecast for China is “zero” due to U.S. export controls and Chinese rejection of previously authorized chips.

• New US Commerce authorization allows Nvidia to export up to 35,000 Blackwell GPUs each to Saudi Arabia and UAE, under strict anti-diversion requirements.

• Jensen Huang (05:29):

  “We would love the opportunity to re-engage the Chinese market... but all our forecast guidance showed zero [sales to China].”

• Legislative background: The GAIN Act seeks to further prioritize American customers—White House aims to delay new restrictions as no uniform policy exists yet.

• Ongoing risks: Middle Eastern partners’ ties to China (e.g., Huawei Technology) remain a vigilance point for DC policymakers concerned about “leakage.”

• Mike Shepard (07:11):

  “The White House would like Congress to hold off on legislation that would force Nvidia to put American customers first ahead of adversarial nations like China.”

3. AI Hardware & Market Competition

Timestamps: 11:24–17:13, 34:45–35:57

• Nvidia maintains a dominant 90% market share in data center accelerators.
• CEO Huang and analysts note that even as alternatives (ASICs, Google TPUs, AMD chips) are tried, customers persistently return to Nvidia.
• Demand cycles—hyperscalers, sovereigns, and cloud providers—continue to expand total addressable market (TAM) into “trillions.”
• Reuben Roy (35:24):

  “A year ago we were talking about multiple hundreds of billions of dollars in potentially AI compute TAM and now we're talking about trillions... Even if Nvidia's share comes down, the concept of all boats rising means they’ll continue to grow revenue.”

Depreciation/Chip Longevity

• Investors put to rest overhangs on chip depreciation (A100s still in use after 6 years), showing product lifespan.

4. Meta's Directional Shift & Yann Lecun’s Departure

Timestamps: 17:42–20:51

• Yann Lecun (“godfather of AI”) departs Meta to launch an independent startup for advanced machine intelligence.
• Meta’s recent shift: Prioritizing near-term AI products (chatbots, consumer apps) over pioneering, long-term research, leading to internal resource reallocation and Lecun’s exit.
• Arrival of Alexander Wang (Scale AI) to run new efforts signals organizational pivot at Meta.
• Kurt Wagner (19:48):

  “If they have this legendary AI researcher in the building and yet they're still going outside the company to bring in people to run their new AI effort, what does that signal, right, for Yan's future here?”

5. China’s Ascendance in AI Talent & Startups

Timestamps: 23:22–26:15

• Tsinghua University is “the MIT of China,” producing massive numbers of STEM graduates (3.5 million vs. 80,000 US).
• Supported by national policy, VC money, and strategic governmental focus, Chinese universities are birthing powerful AI startups and forming industry incubators.
• Alumni and talent from Tsinghua populate leadership at Alibaba, ByteDance, and high-profile startups.

6. Broader AI & Market Narratives

Timestamps: 28:18–30:26, 41:06–46:10

• NVIDIA’s results drive waves across rival chipmakers (AMD, Broadcom, Marvell, Micron) and Big Tech (Alphabet, Microsoft).
• Investors debate the longevity of the AI “supercycle,” with macro factors (Fed rates, year-end profit taking) also influencing sentiment.
• Carmen Reinicke (28:18):

  “So goes Nvidia, so goes the rest of the market. This report was overwhelmingly positive... but I think what we might be seeing now is just a little bit of fatigue.”

7. Cybersecurity & M&A: Palo Alto Networks

Timestamps: 37:29–44:05

• Palo Alto Networks CEO Nikesh Arora describes the strategy behind their $3.4 billion acquisition of Chronosphere to bolster AI-enabled cybersecurity and observability.

• The company has grown through a combination of acquisitive growth (28 acquisitions, ~$30B) and organic innovation, now aiming to become the world’s top cybersecurity vendor.

• Outlook: Expects continued sector consolidation (“platformization”) in cybersecurity, leveraging real-time, AI-powered agents to defend enterprises.

• Nikesh Arora (43:48):

  “We are in an exuberant phase of AI. It is the fastest technology evolution we've seen in our lifetimes... in history we've never had a situation where we built infrastructure, didn't get consumed.”

8. Sovereign AI Momentum & Investor Insight

Timestamps: 46:10–49:06

• U.S. approval for Middle East GPU exports signals global sovereigns’ surging AI demand.

• These deals could add an incremental $5–10B in sales on top of Nvidia’s already bullish $500B forecast.

• Kunjan Sobhani (47:51):

  “The key point that people are missing is holding gross margin to mid-70s even when wafer HBM packaging costs are all rising... that speaks a lot about their pricing power.”

• The dominance of Nvidia in new data center builds (up to 60% of costs) remains a central moat; competition from ASICs/TPUs may grow, but Nvidia's technical and scale advantages are substantial.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Caroline Hyde (14:03):

  “I feel as though the entire market is a bit of an anxious boyfriend at the moment—trying to have soothing words currently given to it... we don't want it to end the way that it ended back in 2000.”

• Jensen Huang (05:29):

  “We've planned our supply chain incredibly well. We have the largest supply chain in the world, but we've got a bunch of Blackwells to sell.”

• Kurt Wagner (19:48):

  “LeCun is a legend... if they have this legendary AI researcher and yet they're still going outside... what does that signal?”

Timeline of Major Segments

| Time | Segment/Topic | |-------------|-------------------------------------------------------------| | 02:21-06:46 | Nvidia forecast, exclusive Jensen Huang interview | | 07:11-10:46 | U.S. export controls, White House/GAIN Act context | | 11:24-17:13 | Analyst/Ayaka Yoshioka on Nvidia's guidance and market | | 17:42-20:51 | Yann Lecun’s Meta departure, Meta AI research shift | | 23:22-26:15 | China’s AI talent ecosystem - Tsinghua University spotlight | | 27:57-30:26 | Broad share moves linked to Nvidia, market pulse | | 31:06-35:57 | Reuben Roy: Street reaction and demand expansion, China | | 37:29-46:10 | Palo Alto Networks CEO: M&A strategy, platformization, AI | | 46:10-49:06 | Sovereign AI, new markets, gross margins, pricing power |

Summary & Takeaway

This packed Bloomberg Tech episode captures a pivotal moment for the AI ecosystem, with Nvidia’s forecast both driving market sentiment and raising deeper questions about sustainability and global competition. The episode delivers exclusive CEO perspectives, expert analyst takes, and insight into policy, academia, and the future shape of AI and cybersecurity. For investors and tech-watchers, Nvidia remains the axis for AI optimism—and the epicenter of every debate about the next chapter in tech.