SpaceX Said to Pursue 2026 IPO

Summary

Bloomberg Tech Podcast Summary

Episode: SpaceX Said to Pursue 2026 IPO
Date: December 10, 2025
Host: Ed Ludlow (Bloomberg Tech)
Featured Guests: Eric Johnson (Bloomberg Space Editor), Phil Haslett (Chief Strategy Officer, EquityZen), Will Whitehorn (Chairman, Seraphim Space), CITI Panagrahi (Mizuho), Laura Martin (Needham), Bloomberg Technology Reporters

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Episode Overview

This episode is driven by Bloomberg's exclusive reporting of SpaceX planning a historic IPO for mid-2026, targeting to raise over $30 billion—potentially becoming the largest IPO ever with a targeted valuation of $1.5 trillion. The discussion spans the drivers behind SpaceX’s capital needs, the implications for both private and public markets, and the broader context including AI strategy shifts at Meta, chip sales to China, content mega-mergers in Hollywood, and major tech earnings.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. SpaceX’s Blockbuster IPO Plans

Timestamps: 03:00–08:09, 41:12–48:08

• Announcement & Context:

  • Bloomberg exclusively reports SpaceX is planning an IPO for 2026, aiming to raise well over $30 billion, eclipsing all previous records.
  • The tentative post-IPO valuation is set at around $1.5 trillion.

• Strategic Rationale for the Raise:

  • Funds are expected to support Musk's ambitions, notably:
    • Massive capital investments in Starship rocket development for lunar and Mars missions.
    • Construction of data centers in space powered by solar, integrating advanced AI computing clusters ("SpaceX AI cluster, the SpaceX stack space-based data center").
    • Expansion and technology upgrades for the Starlink satellite internet business.
  • “Musk is known for his grandiose visions... The money could be used for [moon and Mars], data centers in space, and Starlink expansion.”
    —Eric Johnson (04:39)

• Starlink’s Role:

  • Starlink has become a major revenue driver, expected to remain the company's “cash cow.”
  • Starlink’s business includes millions of customers and partnerships with airlines, bringing widespread usage and strong growth, but also high expectations.
  • “Customers are favorable... Investors are seeing that growth... Can he continue Starlink’s growth and also direct-to-cell promises?”
    —Eric Johnson (07:14)

• Current Valuation Trends:

  • SpaceX recently set its secondary market valuation to $800 billion ($421 per share) via a capped $2 billion employee share tender.
  • This process “sets the market valuation... as a precursor to the IPO.” —Eric Johnson (05:59)
  • “SpaceX is the most requested private company on [EquityZen]—tons of retail exuberance.”
    —Phil Haslett (08:59)

• Ownership & IPO Structure Concerns:

  • Existing shareholder base is relatively concentrated (Founders Fund, Fidelity, Google, select VCs), but also a wide “long tail” due to decades of employees.
  • The IPO may be partly driven by regulatory requirements as private companies with over 2,000 shareholders must begin reporting financials.
  • “As a private entity, can only have 2,000 shareholders... That may be a bit of a driver here as well.”
    —Phil Haslett (10:22)

• Private Market vs. IPO Valuations:

  • “$800 billion is not necessarily the market price, but the price SpaceX decided is out there.”
    —Phil Haslett (12:06)
  • SpaceX’s IPO would “put it in uncharted waters... This would probably be literally the most exciting IPO we’ve ever seen.”
    —Phil Haslett (13:15)

• Industry and Ecosystem Impact:

  • SpaceX’s IPO is forecast to have “seismic” effects across the space industry, boosting suppliers, satellite companies, and growing the space-based data economy.
  • “Link Starlink to AI data centers—you’re seeing an entire ecosystem of businesses growing up... Space and AI will become interlinked like never before.”
    —Will Whitehorn (42:18)
  • The potential for ripple effects in climate, defense, agriculture, fintech, and insurance sectors due to rising need for space-derived data.
    —Will Whitehorn (43:56)

• Leadership Question:

  • With Musk soon to be at the helm of two of the world’s largest public companies, investors are concerned about focus and succession.
  • “Is it realistic that this man leads two public companies at that scale for the long term?”
    —Ed Ludlow (47:23)
  • “This is going to be an issue investors will look at very, very closely.”
    —Will Whitehorn (47:45)

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2. Meta’s Pivot Away from Open Source AI

Timestamps: 16:44–18:58

• Meta (Facebook) AI Model “Avocado”:
  • Mark Zuckerberg now leans toward a closed model for monetization, steering away from the open-source “flag waving” of previous years.
  • “After July, they told employees not to speak publicly about open source... a resetting of the strategy.” —Bloomberg reporter (18:18)
  • Motivation is to show returns on Meta’s multibillion-dollar AI investment; internal tensions visible.

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3. US-China Chip Controls: Nvidia & Deep Seek

Timestamps: 18:58–21:42

• US Approves Nvidia H200 Chip Sales to China:
  • Motivated by the assessment that China’s Huawei already matches this capability, thus the security risk is deemed “lower.”
• Blackwell Chip Smuggling Claims:
  • Nvidia refutes reports that Blackwell chips have been widely smuggled into China, calling it “far fetched.”
  • “Nvidia: These smuggling claims are a bit far fetched... They [investigate] every tip... haven’t seen evidence.” —Bloomberg Reporter (21:13)

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4. Oracle & Adobe Earnings Previews

Timestamps: 22:18–26:28 (Oracle), 48:23–50:29 (Adobe)

Oracle:

• Cloud Business Focus:
  • Investors worried about Oracle’s negative free cash flow for the first time since 1992, despite strong cloud growth (“OCI”).
  • “Investors are concerned about free cash flow... Oracle has multiple options for funding data center buildout.”
    —CITI Panagrahi (23:09)
• Contract Security with OpenAI:
  • Large OpenAI contracts boost backlog but questions remain about customers fulfilling obligations.

Adobe:

• Challenges in the AI Era:
  • Facing skepticism from investors despite efforts to position as an “AI-first” company.
  • “There’s a lot of worries about whether Adobe... will survive all the newfound competitors.”
    —Phil Haslett (48:43)
• Embracing Third-Party AI:
  • Recently announced partnership with OpenAI, signaling willingness to integrate external models.

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5. Streaming Mega-Deals: Warner Bros Discovery Bidding War

Timestamps: 27:19–36:05

• Bidding Battle for Warner Bros Discovery:

  • Netflix and Paramount’s Skydance are both vying for WBD, with bids up to $30/share, far above previous trading levels.
  • “Kudos to Zaslav for creating this auction... 300% premium over prior trading.”
    —Laura Martin (30:40)

• Antitrust Risks:

  • Analysts see a higher regulatory risk with Netflix winning versus Paramount, due to market concentration and anti-competitive fears in Hollywood and among talent.
  • “If Netflix owned Warner Brothers... within five years they would stop releasing films in theatrical box office, which is why we’ve seen pressure on the exhibitors.”
    —Laura Martin (31:22)

• Consumer Impact:

  • Bundling HBO Max and Netflix could simplify, but likely at a higher price point for consumers—the primary antitrust concern.
  • “Price would go up for consumers if they combine those two assets, I think.”
    —Laura Martin (36:05)

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6. View from Disney on Entertainment Industry M&A

Timestamps: 36:37–37:36

• Post-M&A Integration Experience:
  • Dana Walman, Disney Co-Chairman, sees little threat from new consolidations given Disney’s own integration of Fox and emphasizes regulatory/timing hurdles over actual competition.
  • “Whomever ends up in this situation... These are situations that require time: regulatory approval, integration, apps.”
    —Dana Walman (37:10)

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Notable Quotes

• Eric Johnson (Bloomberg) [04:39]:

  “Musk is known for his grandiose visions.... So the money could be used for Starship, data centers in space, and Starlink expansion.”

• Phil Haslett (EquityZen) [08:59]:

  “SpaceX is the most popularly requested private company on [our] platform... retail exuberance about investing in SpaceX.”

• Will Whitehorn (Seraphim) [42:18]:

  “This is a seismic event for the entire space industry... Space and AI will become interlinked in a way they never have before.”

• Laura Martin (Needham) [31:22]:

  “Hollywood is really negative... if suddenly Netflix owned Warner Brothers... within five years they would stop releasing films in the theatrical box office.”

• Bloomberg Reporter on Meta [18:18]:

  “After July, they told employees not to be talking publicly about open source as Meta reset its strategy.”

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Timestamps for Important Segments

• 03:00–08:09 — SpaceX IPO details, funding rationale, Starlink focus (Ed Ludlow, Eric Johnson)
• 08:59–13:38 — Private market interest, equity structure, and valuation challenges (Phil Haslett)
• 41:12–48:08 — SpaceX IPO’s industry impact; AI/data synergy; private/public crosscurrents (Will Whitehorn)
• 16:44–18:58 — Meta's AI strategy pivot, open/closed model debate (Bloomberg reporters)
• 27:19–36:13 — Warner Bros Discovery auction: bids, Hollywood sentiment, antitrust (Laura Martin)
• 22:18–26:28; 48:23–50:29 — Oracle/Adobe tech earnings, business model shifts
• 19:44–21:42 — US chip export controls, Nvidia/China (Maggie Eastland)

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Tone & Language

The conversation is brisk, data-driven, and analytical—typical of Bloomberg's market coverage—with moments of dry humor (“Debtflix”), candid skepticism about some valuations and deals, and minimal editorializing on the facts. Notable is the industry-insider perspective, with poignant direct quotes and lived observations (e.g., Will Whitehorn’s historical analogies, Laura Martin’s Hollywood view).

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Conclusion

This episode revolves around SpaceX’s anticipated record-breaking IPO, diving into both its vast ambitions and the capital structures enabling those ambitions. The broader context includes evolving AI business models, regulatory chess in tech/hardware exports, transformative Hollywood mergers, and shifting public market expectations for big-cap tech companies—all delivered with Bloomberg’s signature authority and up-to-the-moment analysis.

For listeners wanting to keep pace with where technology, capital markets, and industrial strategy converge, this is a can't-miss episode.

Transcript

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Bloomberg Tech is live from coast to coast with Caroline Hyde in New York and Ed Ludlow in San Francisco.

[Ed Ludlow]

This is Bloomberg Tech. Coming up, a Bloomberg exclusive. Space x targeting an IPO next year. The goal to raise far beyond $30 billion, the most in history. The valuation around 1.5 trillion. Why data centers in space plus open then matter making a pivot on open source models. We had the Bloomberg deep dive and reports that Deep Sea smuggled thousands of banned Blackwell chips into China. Nvidia pushes back. Let's get to our top story in the private markets and soon to be public markets. Bloomberg reporting that Space X is very much underway targeting an IPO in mid-2026. They want to raise far north of $30 billion in terms of dollar raised. That would be the biggest IPO in history. The valuation we're hearing 1.5. There's a lot in play here, but my understanding this is very real. It had an impact in public markets. Some of the names out there in the space sector, particularly Echo Sar, that is in talks on licensing spectrum deals with Space X really moving over the course of two sessions in reaction to this, I use that as an illustrative example. This is the IPO that all corners of the technology market and the private market have been waiting for. Let's bring in Bloomberg Space editor Eric Johnson. Eric broke this story with me yesterday afternoon and we'll go back to the basics of what we're reporting, Eric, because there's a lot of data in there. But the main headline, I suppose beyond the valuation is Space X wants to raise north of $30 billion. You and I are getting a sense on why they need that capital.

[Eric Johnson]

Ed, great to be here and congratulations on your scoop and great reporting. Yes, they are. What we're hearing is a $30 billion raise which, you know, if you look the history of Space X, you know, Musk is known for his grandiose visions. They're building Starship, a colossal rocket which he expects to put humans on the moon and eventually one day go to Mars. So the money could be used for that. He also has talked about, as you, as you mentioned, the idea of putting data centers in space, harnessing solar power and having, you know, huge amount of computing resources in space. They would need to buy chips to do so, so the money could be used for that. You know, of course, the other side of Space X is Starlink. You know, the satellite Internet business grown substantially over the past few years. So there's a huge portfolio that SpaceX is bringing as they transform space travel.

[Ed Ludlow]

Eric, we're showing the other part of what we reported, which is through our reporting confirmation of this tender or secondary offering that's going on. In other words, Space X allowing employees to sell shares. But to do that you need to set a price and that gives evaluation. We've now done that reporting. Run us through the numbers that we need to know about this tender. And for me the important bit here is that this kind of settles valuation ahead of that ipo.

[Eric Johnson]

Absolutely. This level sets the market valuation as they, as they is a precursor to the ipo. But essentially Space X runs, you know, biannual tender, offers secondary offerings where they allow existing, you know, shareholders, employees and others insiders to essentially generate liquidity from, from their, from their piece of Space X. And so as part of that, they set a valuation of $800 billion, which is a record beating open AI's latest tally from October of 500 billion. So making it once again the most valuable startup in the world. So this is walking up to that ipo. And of course, as you mentioned, the IPO would be 1.5 trillion roughly valuation.

[Ed Ludlow]

In the private markets. The share price right now is about 420, $121 a share. There is so much left to discuss. I think that a lot of people will say how expected was this? We've done reporting over a number of years actually on the space team that originally the focus was on spinning off Starlink. Right. Because you and I also reported some of the financials for Space X in this current year and next year. Starlink right now is, is really the cash cow for this company.

[Eric Johnson]

That's right. They bring in the majority of revenue. They're expected to do so last year, as I said, they've now they've got thousands of satellites in low earth orbit. It's a booming business, millions of customers. I've flown on many flights around the country that airlines are starting to use Starlink. You're starting to, you know, the customer reviews are favorable. So I think investors are seeing that growth. You know, people, as they have watched this company, they're seeing Musk make these huge promises and then, and then is iteratively incrementally delivering on them. So there's a lot to be seen as far as, you know, can he continue the growth of Starlink and also direct to sell. That's another, you know, nascent business area that Musk has promised to link regular consumer cell phones with this network of satellites in low earth orbit. It's just a lot of growth, a lot of promises. But a lot of challenges, right? The company has to meet these expectations, live up to them to earn that valuation and to excite people.

[Ed Ludlow]

Bloomberg's Eric Johnson, who leads the team on space coverage, thank you very much. I point out Space X hasn't commented on this. As it stands, Elon Musk has not posted on X about it. That's just the Bloomberg reporting. Let's bring in Phil Haslett for more. He's the Chief Strategy Officer over at Equity Zen, one of the largest companies platforms for pre IPO shares. There's a lot that you and I have to cover on a potential Space X IPO which we've reported is for the entirety of the business. Right. Not just Starlink, but actually important. To start with, you would note that Space X is, is the private company that users of your platform are most interested in. In quantifying that for us. Just transparently explain what Equity Zen relationship to Space X is. Private market shares is.

[Phil Haslett]

Sure. Thanks for having me. Yeah, you, you hit the nail on the head. Space X is the most popularly requested private company on equities and it's been that way for probably our entire existence as a business over the last 13 years. And that really just means that there is retail exuberance about investing in Space X. You know, the company is 23 years old, it's older than a lot of my employees, it has garnered interest, it's had success, it's out in the public. People have done incredibly well with Tesla as public market investors. And so there is a lot of enthusiasm to invest in the company while it's private and what seems to be now an opportunity to invest in it while it's public and maybe even less than a year, which is pretty surprising.

[Ed Ludlow]

There is of course a lot that we don't know. What percentage of the company is Space X going to operate, offer, what is the structure of the IPO going to be. But in reporting this story, Phil, one of the things I reflect on is that existing SpaceX shareholders aren't that diverse. You have Founders Fund, Fidelity, Google, through Google ventures and through Corp. Dev137 ventures. And then like others in the world of venture capital and strategics. But my point is that quite a lot of the company is owned by quite a small group. And then there's the Elon Musk factor as well. How does that translate in an IPO environment for anyone that wanted to get into the company?

[Phil Haslett]

Well, there's a couple of other things to think about, which is that a 23 year old company has had a Lot of employees come, stay, leave. Right. And so you have a wide swath of shareholders, kind of like a long tail of ownership. And so sure, there's some concentration in some of their biggest investors and in the founder shares, but so this thing is pretty widely held. I'd go so far as to say that an IPO might also be a solid for the fact that the company is a private entity and can only have 2,000 shareholders. That is a requirement before they have to start filing financials. That may actually be a bit of a driver here as well. But as far as what the IPO is going to look like, this is uncharted waters, right? Saudi Aramco, Alibaba. Those would actually be smaller than these IPOs. Right. And we don't know or than this IPO. And we don't know if it's going to be primarily secondary liquidity to existing. If it's going to be new capital, though I would posit it's probably going to be new capital based on a lot of your reporting as well, because. Because there's going to be need to be investment from Space X into new computing and processing power.

[Ed Ludlow]

So to a big portion of the Bloomberg tech audience that work in the world of technology tenders and the secondary market is something they'll be familiar with. Loads of people will not be familiar with that. And so what usually happens with a big IPO is in late stage growth primary rounds where the company raises money, issues new equity, you get these kind of anchors. Investors that come in ahead of an IPO might be a year in advance. In this case, what we're reporting is the Tender is confirmed $800 billion valuation, $421 share price. Could you explain that dynamic ahead of a big ipo, how that isn't any new primary round, not raising new money, which as you know, Elon Musk has been at pains to point out on X.

[Host/Announcer]

Sure.

[Phil Haslett]

In its simplest form, if you're a business that's profitable and you don't need new capital to continue growing, why dilute yourself by taking a new investment injection, you know, through a primary. A secondary liquidity offering is a way to reward employees or perhaps early investors by getting them liquidity for their shares without diluting ownership overall for everybody else. And this is something that SpaceX has elected to do over the past few years, I believe, kind of semiannually, in a way to provide liquidity, not dilute themselves. Also set a new kind of external price for their shares, but still maintaining an immense amount of control. And the Only thing I would call out here, Ed, is that obviously $2 billion liquidity is a big number, but it's actually only 0.25% of the valuation of this company. And so I hesitate to kind of identify that 800 billion is the new market price for Space X. More so that it is the market price that Space X has decided is out there.

[Ed Ludlow]

Yes. Yeah. The tender was capped at $2 billion. That's what I reported. We just have 30 seconds. Valuation IPO $1.5 trillion. What do you make of that?

[Phil Haslett]

That I think would put it in uncharted waters. Right. You've got three public companies that are worth north of $3 trillion. Where is the upside from 1.5? I'm not sure. At the same time, the bull in me says Palantir had a robust retail investor audience. It trades at north of 100 times revenue. So the art of the possible is somewhere in between those numbers. I do know that this would probably be literally the most exciting IPO we've ever seen.

[Ed Ludlow]

Phil Haslett, Chief Strategy Officer at Equities and thank you very much. Coming up, matter making moves toward a new AI model. From open to close. That's next. This is Bloomberg Tech.

[Host/Announcer]

Resilience isn't just about bouncing back. It's about being ready. It's how you show up every single day. Because every name in your system is a person who trusts you and every password is a door you're responsible for locking. And when the threat comes, and it always comes, you hold back the chaos. Learn [e-mail] Resilience support for the show comes from public on public. You can build a multi asset portfolio of stocks, bonds, options, crypto and now generated assets which allow you to turn any idea into an investable index. With AI, it all starts with your prompt. From renewable energy companies with high free cash flow to semiconductor suppliers growing revenue over 20% year over year. You can literally type any prompt and put the AI to work. It screens thousands of stocks, builds a one of a kind index and lets you backtest it against the S&P 500. Then you can invest in a few clicks. Generated assets are completely customizable and based on your thesis, not someone else's. Go to public.com market and earn an uncapped 1% bonus when you transfer your portfolio. That's public.com market paid for by Public.

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[Ed Ludlow]

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[Ed Ludlow]

Met as Mark Zuckerberg is shifting the company's focus toward a new artificial intelligence model that can make it some money. One new model is expected to launch next spring, potentially as a closed model that Matter can sell access to. This would mark Matters biggest move yet away from open source models. The reporting comes from Bloomberg Tech's Riley Griffin. There's a case study. The case study is Avocado, so let's start there. This is all what we're hearing from sources, but my understanding is originally Avocado might have been an open source model. It's now not going to be based on our reporting. Take it from there and then we'll get into the bigger picture.

[Bloomberg Reporter (Riley Griffin / Maggie Eastland / Emily Garfield)]

Yeah, essentially Meta is working on this Avocado model. That is the code name internally and they have not officially decided whether it will be open or closed, but closed is the way they are leaning at the moment. And this is a really important distinction because it points to a monetization strategy. And as you know, Metta is under pressure to show that it can return on its multi hundred billion dollar investment in AI. And this is one path towards that.

[Ed Ludlow]

There's detail in the reporting about how Alexander Wang, who's basically, you know, the lieutenant leading the AI lab effort is Pro closed model. In July, Mark Zuckerberg kind of told us why open source in this environment isn't that great. As the models get bigger, there are fewer people that can access them. It's a resource and constraint issue. But what else are you putting in the story here? Because you know, Matter was the sort of flag waiver for open source.

[Bloomberg Reporter (Riley Griffin / Maggie Eastland / Emily Garfield)]

Yeah. I mean things we heard from in and around the company. For one, employees after July were told that they should not be talking publicly about open source source as Matter reset its strategy. Remember, Mark Zuckerberg brought in all of these expensive researchers and had to reset after a very disappointing release of Llama for that was their open source model earlier this year. And so this is a resetting of the strategy under Alex's leadership with close involvement from Mark Zuckerberg who sits quite close to Alex. And the pressure is leading to tensions too. But that steer to to employees internally. To not be speaking publicly about open source should be a big tell.

[Ed Ludlow]

The report is a must read. Bloomberg's Riley Griffin with the reporting alongside Kurt Wagner. Thank you very much. President Trump decided to let Nvidia sell its H200AI chips to China after concluding the move carried a lower security risk because the company's Chinese arch rival Huawei, already offers some AI systems with comparable performance. That's according to a Bloomberg source. Bloomberg tech reporter Maggie Eastland joins us. Maggie, you and I broke this story together yesterday. As we understand it, right? The president was presented with a range of options from exporting no technology at all to the latest technology, and they landed somewhere in the middle. Take it from there. And what else we reported and what we know about the Huawei Cloud Matrix 384 system.

[Bloomberg Reporter (Riley Griffin / Maggie Eastland / Emily Garfield)]

Yes. One key detail we've reported is that this Cloud Matrix 384 system, which can link together hundreds of chips, was a key rationale underpinning the White House's logic to allow these advanced chips, which are better on a per chip basis than what Chinese companies are capable of. However, as was made clear in our reporting, the White House is looking at this more at a system level. And their understanding was that while we systems are actually advancing quite quickly. So that was the rationale here. And though this is a paradigm shift from previous administrations during which Huawei's advancements were an impetus to actually crack down and further restrict those Chinese companies, now that same evidence is being used as a reason to loosen controls and kick off this new strategy of selling Nvidia.

[Ed Ludlow]

Chips to China, the main focus, as I understand it, is the H200 is 18 months behind Blackwell generation to generation. And that's the comfort level this administration has. Nvidia's down 1.3% in the session right now. The other big report out there is from the Information which reported that Deep Seek smuggled in thousands of Blackwell chips into China, getting them from countries of origin where they were allowed dismantling the servers. Nvidia has come out with a statement, Maggie, pushing back on that report. Let's start with that in video. Statement please.

[Host/Announcer]

Yes.

[Bloomberg Reporter (Riley Griffin / Maggie Eastland / Emily Garfield)]

So Nvidia has said that these smuggling claims are a bit far fetched in its own words. And while it investigates every tip it receives, it hasn't seen evidence of this. Now one interesting thing from the report, Jensen Huang has said before that these Blackwell racks are just a bit too heavy to be feasible to smuggle. But this report from the Information did say that the smuggling for Deep Seq took place in these sort of eight chip segments that could potentially fit in a suitcase.

[Ed Ludlow]

Bloomberg's Maggie Eastland who's out in D.C. covers the intersection of tech and politics with the reporting. Thank you very much. Another story, Amazon pledged to invest $35 billion in India over the next five years, boosting its spending in the key growth market to expand in businesses from quick commerce to cloud computer computing. The e commerce giant says it will invest in areas such as AI and logistics infrastructure and that the planned outlay through 2030 will help create an additional 1 million jobs in India.

Oracle reporting earnings after the bell. This is the story they expect on the street. The backlog to grow remaining performance obligations, basically deals signed but revenue not booked to continue pushing north of $500 billion. But Oracle's got a very big debt pile and the one metric we're looking at negative free cash flow expected to be almost $6 billion in the quarter. Let's preview, let's discuss Citi Panagrahi, managing director, senior analyst at Mizuho, covering SASS but also covering Oracle. This is the equation we want to see growth in the cloud division, OCI in particular. But in the background there's that stat Oracle swinging to negative free cash flow for the first time since 1992. Remind us what your price target and call is on the stock and then how you feel about that stat.

[Citi Panagrahi]

That's great, thanks for having me here. Look, I think what you said right at this point investors are concerned about free cash flow mostly, you know, they have to build massive capex, build out for a capacity data center build out and also they need to do the funding for that. So what matters at this today in the earnings call is Oracle giving some kind of clarity on that. Look, I think what investors missing is that Oracle has multiple options they don't have to raise date or capex. They can also go go for alternative financing like vendor financing or capital leasing. Then you won't see that in a capex. But at this point Oracle is not able to tell you how much of the capex is how much rate they have to raise because they are going to evaluate this as they are building out data center. Each data center they are going to look at their own cost of capital and compare that with the leasing. So that's what I think the one of the concern we hope to hear from management on that how they are going to fund the capex, how they're going to build the data center.

[Ed Ludlow]

Right. I've been trying to learn as much as I can about how this world works. Remaining performance obligation. RPO is a term that gets bandied around all the time but basically it's a backlog right of business. 500 billion is it? It stands as Bloomberg's reported it quite a lot of that is open AI now in the future if something happens and a deal falls through often in the contracts there's some kind of penalty for cancellation or severance. But the question still out there, how do we know that Open Air in particular is good for it? That they'll be able to actually front up on the projects that they're committed to?

[Citi Panagrahi]

Yeah, I mean that's a fair point as you say but if you look at right now there are like a handful of AI companies like 3 or 4 open air, anthropic, meta and and xi. So Oracle got most of them except Anthropic. So yes and OpenAI is a trailblazer in that. So they have that as a customer. That's I think most important at this point. To Your point can OpenAI pay out of that contract will fall apart. Look, this is a non cancelable contract what Oracle says. So with that and there will be demand if we think about at this point the rate it's growing, probably, probably will need that demand at this point. But I think if you look at the concern Oracle lost more than $300 billion market cap. You know an open air contract is only 300 billion. I think if I remember it's 322 billion market dollar market cap loss. So even investors are more skeptical beyond even Open Air at this point which we don't think like core business is still doing well the way we are looking at. You asked about the price target. I think if you are an investor you need to believe on this long term story growth is accelerating. $20 on EPS they guided for fiscal, fiscal 30 and if you discounted back even applying 25 times we get to this $400 price target CD.

[Ed Ludlow]

We just have less than a minute here. Do you like this co CEO structure and the leadership of Oracle?

[Citi Panagrahi]

Yes, I think the way right now OCI is very important for Oracle. So that's where they are separating. OCI is going to, he's going to provide, he's going to look at that business and rest of the application and rest of the business. Mike Sicily is going to do it. I think this model works. Larry still there. He's the chairman. He is leading the group, leading the company there. So we like, we like it. I think we'll see how it goes.

[Ed Ludlow]

Oracle down 310 of a percent. We're treading water. That is the big earnings print after the Bell City pantography of Mizuho. Great to have you on the show. Thank you.

Welcome back to Bloomberg Tech. Probably the story of the week maybe has been the saga around Warner Brothers discovery. Two competing bids, one from Netflix cash and stock at $27.75 a share, which is just for the streaming and studios and one from Paramount Skydogs, $30 per share for the whole enchilada. This is what those stocks have traded like on week. We're not quite in the sort of discussion territory around arbitrage. In other words, looking at the gap between where the stock's trading and the price of the deals offered because it's a live situation with multiple bids. But we are looking at the structure of the deals. Now Netflix is looking to become debt flicks again. Do you see what we did there? After cutting back on debt during the pandemic, it's back to borrowing heavily to finance its planned acquisition. For most of Warner Brothers Discovery, the caveat that they'd spin off the legacy network and cable lines. The difference is that now Netflix has a stronger balance sheet. Half the press just hit the wire. Bloomberg's cross asset reporter Emily Garfield has the deep dive. Debt is becoming so important generally across technology. But in this case with Netflix, it is a change of court corporate policy in what is a potentially very big deal. What are you reporting?

[Bloomberg Reporter (Riley Griffin / Maggie Eastland / Emily Garfield)]

It really is that so what we found is that this term debt flicks was introduced a couple of years ago by some detractors when the company was rated high yields. They really built their business around borrowing heavily in the junk bond market and some people didn't like how much cash the company was burning. But they've really turned that credit profile around us so now they company's rated investment grade. That allows Netflix to tap into a deeper market. More investors here, and they have to raise a lot of debt to finance this acquisition of Warner Brothers. Bloomberg Intelligence estimates that right now they have about $15 billion of debt. That's going to about 75 billion given the current terms here. But what we're hearing from a lot of different credit analysts is that Netflix has the balance sheet to fund this. So it's a turnaround story here. They are debt flicks. It's a fun term. I wish I could take credit for coming up with it, but I did not. But again, here it's, it's investment grade debt and it's debt that most analysts are confident Netflix can actually still keep that investment grade rating and it can actually even potentially raise more debt if need be to top that hostile takeover bid because that balance sheet is so strong.

[Ed Ludlow]

At Bloomberg's Emily Griffe, it's a must read on the Bloomberg terminal. Netflix to Netflix. Check it out. All right, let's bring in Laura Martin for more on this deal. There is a lot more to discuss. Laura, senior entertainment analyst at Needham and.

[Phil Haslett]

Co.

[Ed Ludlow]

Is one of these situations where there's the Wall street view on this deal, the structure of the deal, and then there's the what does this mean for Hollywood? And the reason I'm so excited to have you on the program is I think we could probably talk about both. But this is the first opportunity I've had to talk to you about two competing bids. I set the stage for it on Netflix's offer, cash and stock and Paramount's offer. What is your position at this time and what is your research into the competing bids?

[Laura Martin]

So, I mean, I think the kudos have to go to Zaslav for creating this auction for an asset that's worth $12, we're now at $30 a share. And now we've heard over the tape this morning that both Paramount and Netflix have said they could go higher. So so far we have a 300% like premium over what the assets were trading at before the auction rumors. So first of all, kudos to David Zaslav and the Warner Brothers team for selling an asset. Dear in terms of who wins, you know, we are much more sanguine about Paramount or Peace Guy is its ticker regulatory ability to get it through the Trump administration.

[Ed Ludlow]

Right.

[Laura Martin]

You know, we think that there are real issues with Netflix being successful, not only with Hollywood talent who see this as anti competitive. I sit in Hollywood as anti competitive, especially because Netflix has said repeatedly it does not believe in the theatrical box office release window. And so all of Hollywood is scared to death that if suddenly Netflix owned Warner Brothers, that within five years they would stop releasing films in the theatrical box office, which is why we've seen pressure on the exhibitors also. So I think Hollywood is really negative, or let me say it this way, much more negative about Netflix taking over Warner Brothers than Peace Guy. So I would say that.

[Ed Ludlow]

And on the money side, let me jump in real quick. On the money side, we will get to Hollywood, particularly technology, because, you know, Netflix is. Competency is the algorithm to an extent, and the library and the content. But I just want to go back and back to basics of what you said. $12 with Warner Brothers Discovery. You're not the first person to make this point, Laura, but just except explain the basics to our audience, please. People do feel that the value of what either entity ends up getting may not be at $27.75 for the studio streaming or 30 for the. The whole enchilada, as I keep saying.

[Laura Martin]

Right. So, I mean, I'm comparing the trading price for WBD Warner Brothers for like a year. Essentially, it was falling and it hit about a $12 price point before the first rumor of a Peace Guy bid started the stock moving up and then I can't remember the Larry Ellison first bid or the David Ellison first bid, but now we're up at $30 a share for the whole thing, and that includes 27 from Netflix for studios. Plus, the idea is there'd be a $2, $3 stub left trading for the networks division, which would add up to $30 also, but in theory. So anyway, I'm say we're like at $30 for the comparable asset that was trading at $12 before the auction began for this asset.

[Ed Ludlow]

I think there's a lot of value in that answer because the next question is, of course about antitrust and what the combined entities would look like in either case. You said you believe or you're more sanguine about Paramount Skyd Dance combined with Warner Brothers Discovery. Why?

[Laura Martin]

Okay, so in streaming, the. In the streaming industry, Netflix has over 300 million global subscribers and HBO Max has 150. So together there's some duplication there, but let's just call it 450 subscribers, which is like 40% of the streaming market, whereas Paramount or PC Guy, it's now called, has 75 million subscribers that you would add to the HBO, which is 150. So now you're 225 million subscribers, much smaller market share of streaming than if you combine Netflix, which is the industry leader, with Warner Brothers, HBO Max asset, streaming asset. So I would say that's one reason. And then the Hollywood studios, as you know, Netflix is one of the largest global creators of content and they would combine it with Warner Brothers, which is one of the largest global creators of content. They have different windows, meaning distribution windows, meaning Netflix primarily creates for television direct to streaming the television screen. And Warner Brothers primarily creates content for both tv but also the film business. It's a big film distributor. So I think the idea is putting these two huge content creators together would dampen competition for talent and lower prices for talent and also raise prices for consumer. That is not a concern with Peace Guy buying Warner Brothers.

[Ed Ludlow]

Laura, we have less than a minute. Netflix would argue, and I am simplifying that. You know, it would simplify it for the consumer, you know, having horrible HBO Max, Netflix people have multiple subscriptions. But it sounds like you don't think that, that that argument will make traction.

[Laura Martin]

Oh no, it would simplify for the consumer. But if they collapse, the thinking is they would collapse. Netflix and HBO Max, great. But what happens to the price? The consumer is going to get a much higher price if you add those two things together so it's simpler. But really monopoly policy. Simplicity isn't based on simplicity versus complexity. It's based on the price to the consumer and consumer welfare. And price is part of consumer welfare. Actually, simplicity is not.

In the laws is a driving factor. But prices and price would go up for consumers if they combine those two assets, I think.

[Ed Ludlow]

Laura Martin of Needham, it's great to have you back on Bloomberg Tech. I suspect we'll be talking about this deal for quite a long time to come. Thank you. Sticking with Entertainment M and A. Disney Co Chairman Dana Wallman. Dana Wallman sat down last month with Bloomberg's Emily Chang for an episode of the Circuit to discuss broadly the M and A landscape and what she thinks of the competition coming out of a potential merger. Listen to this.

[Bloomberg Reporter (Riley Griffin / Maggie Eastland / Emily Garfield)]

I don't worry about a stronger competitor coming out of it because we already went through an incredible transformation in 2019 as Disney Integrated the entertainment assets of Fox. We already went through, you know, a big M and A event to expand our library to increase the amount of IP that we ultimately could take over the top directly to the consumer. So I'm not worried right now. I also think.

Whichever whomever ends up in, you know, in this situation, acquiring WBD or any asset that's available, these are situations that require a lot of time. Time for regulatory approval, time for integration, time to figure out, you know, how to combine apps. A lot of the things that we've already been through.

[Ed Ludlow]

So Disney Co Chairman Dana Walman, along with Bloomberg's Emily Chang again recorded last month. You can catch the full episode of the Circuit tomorrow at 8pm Eastern on Bloomberg originals or 10pm Eastern on Bloomberg Television. All right, coming up, Elon Musk, Space X aims to blast into the record books with possibly, possibly, maybe ready for liftoff, the biggest IPO of all time. That conversation next.

[Phil Haslett]

Getting good call outs healthy systems on.

[Ed Ludlow]

The booster as it starts to pitch over over the Gulf.

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[Ed Ludlow]

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[Ed Ludlow]

Okay, back to our top stories. SpaceX shooting for the stars yet again, this time in the financial context. Sources tell us the Elon Musk led space company well underway with plans for an IPO that would seek to raise far above $30 billion with the targeted valuation around $1.5 trillion. That would make this by money raised the biggest IPO ever. A representative for Space X didn't respond to my many requests for comment. Joining us to discuss is Will Whitehorn, chairman of Seraphim Space. Well was also former chairman of Virgin Galactic. Somebody's work side by side with Richard Branson in the domain of, of commercial space. We have a lot to get to Seraphim, you know, an investor in all kinds of different space assets. And it's the space asset that I think is central to this, the Space X IPO store story. My reporting is that they want to raise the capital for the Space X AI cluster, the Space X stack space based data center. Your reaction to that Will?

[Will Whitehorn]

Well, I think that's probably right and I think that this is a seismic event for the entire space industry. We're not going to see the like of this. I think it's going to cause huge changes to the companies that are suppliers to SpaceX, to the whole massive kind of environment that they've created, particularly in the United States and in the uk. Some companies, there's a company in the UK called Philtronic for example, which has become a major supplier to Space X. Many of the companies in the Seraphim portfolio, they launch on Space X rockets. Starlink has obviously when you link Starlink to AI to data centers, you are seeing an entire ecosystem of businesses growing up and many other constellations will benefit from this, will be in orbit servicing more data analytics coming out through the space industry. Space and I will become interlinked in a way they've never been before. I mean space really is going through a lot of change as it goes through this industrial revolution.

[Ed Ludlow]

Well, we're going to question, report on, react to wherever the valuation of this company settles. My reporting again is that the target based on what they want to raise the amount, percentage of the company they offer $1.5 trillion. But macro, this is an industry, private commercial space that's growing. What is Seraphim saying? What are the numbers, numbers that you're tracking on how an industry is basically growing out of space. X is wake.

[Will Whitehorn]

Well, I'll give you an example. We've got one of the biggest companies in our portfolio called ISI which has this very special kind of aperture radar. The demand for it has gone through the roof. ISIS business plan has ended up being two years ahead of plan. They're in profit already and they are, they've just in the process of a very big fundraiser. Other Companies like Hawkeye, 360, Satellite View, all Space, all of these companies, Apple, Folio are all doing very well and getting ahead of their business plans very rapidly because the demand for data from space is going through the roof for both climate change, defense, national security, communications. I mean everything is relying more and more on space. And of course as people get scared about the underground and undersea cables that supply the Internet, the demand for Internet data from space is starting to rise as well in the fintech sector. So everything is happening all at once. The insurance companies want space data because they realize it's more accurate than ground based data for agricultural assets, buildings, infrastructure projects. So you've got insurance demand, agricultural demand, climate change change demand, and now defense demand is rocketing ahead since Ukraine and the Middle east happened over the last three years. And indeed, you know, I got an OB from Prince William which is one of the first in the space industry to show that even royalty are catching up. And he actually one of the first things he asked me was what I thought was going on in the space industry at the moment from the uk.

[Ed Ludlow]

Okay, well for, for our audience around the world outside of the uk obviously I originate from the United Kingdom, an OB officer of the most excellent order of the British Empire. So congratulations to you, awarded to you this morning by Prince William. And I understand that you then ran to be here on the show and actually Prince William may be tuning in and a fan of the show. Anyway, appreciate that.

[Will Whitehorn]

That's very true.

[Ed Ludlow]

I believe in transparency on this program. One thing that we should have done to start is what is Seraphim's exposure to Space X? Have you any skin in the game?

[Will Whitehorn]

No, we don't have a stake in Space X. Only a couple of British investment trusts do have stakes, both of them Scottish based Seraphim. When we started, it was too late to get into Space X at that time, which is a shame. But we have, we have a lot of exposure to companies I think are going to really benefit from this huge ecosystem of new investment that SpaceX will create. And I'm looking personally at other companies that will benefit. And in fact, I bought a stake in one today which I think will be a beneficiary. This will have, as I said, a seismic effect on an industry already undergoing an industrial revolution. It is going to be, you know, one for me as an old, old hand. I mean, I'm 65 now and you know, I was around in the days when the Netflix, the Netscape moment happened in 1995, which kicked off that range of Internet investment that we still see today. And I think that this is the space equivalent happening right now.

[Ed Ludlow]

Well, do you want to tell us what the company is that you invested in this morning?

[Will Whitehorn]

Mask.

Seraphim doesn't have a stake in it. It's a company called Phil.

[Ed Ludlow]

Okay, let me ask this then. Let me ask this. You are 65 years old. Thank you for sharing that with our audience. Elon Musk is 54. He's committed to Tesla for 10 years. We just have 30 seconds. But is it realistic that this, this man leads to public companies at that scale for the long term?

[Will Whitehorn]

Well, this is going to be a big question around the IPO obviously of Space X. Is he going to spend more time on Space X with this size of fundraiser or is he going to carry on in his Tesla environment as well? Both companies will be quoted. Both will be some of the biggest companies in the world. And you're quite right, this is going to be an issue that investors will look at very, very closely.

[Ed Ludlow]

Will Whitehorn, Seraphim Space Chairman awarded NOBE this morning by Prince William then running over to the camera for us. Thank you very much.

Adobe set to report Q4 earnings this afternoon after the bell as the company looks to convince investors it is on the right track in the era. Bloomberg Intelligence says Adobe could see its annual recurring revenue new target in the low double digits for 2026. Let's get out to Bloomberg's Matt Day in Seattle with the preview. Matt, what do we need to know?

[Phil Haslett]

So as Jefferies Brent Thale said, I know the other day, low expectations and low investor interest. There's a lot of worries about whether Adobe, which has navigated the transition from package software to subscription software, whether they're going to be able to do the same in the era and survive all the newfound competitors they've got in the space.

[Ed Ludlow]

That sets the scene, it sets the tone as well. I mean, you know, I did a big interview with Adobe CEO in the summer and there's clearly a frustration, this is a Stock that's down 22% this year, that they're not getting credit for the work they think they've done in a part of it is how they sell it. Is there a bigger Adobe story that someone's buying?

[Phil Haslett]

You know, there might be. They've tried to convince investors with a couple of metrics. You know, one is sort of AI first revenue that's tracking at about $250 million. They've got another one influenced revenue about $5 billion. But you know, as the stock price to date shows, investors aren't, aren't buying that all the way. You know, particularly in a world where Open air is getting a whole lot of interest with Sora. Google's got new video generation models. If you're a creative professional doing something that's Adobe's wheelhouse and there's a whole lot of AI in the, in the monitors right now.

[Ed Ludlow]

I'm grateful you mentioned that. OpenAI in particular, the debate that Adobe's had about maybe the shift is they tried to pitch themselves as we have our own models with our own safeguards and data and that's best for customers. Now they seem to be saying we're open to using other models and other data inputs as well. Have they kind of settled on their approach?

[Phil Haslett]

Yeah, it's a little bit of both. As you said, they definitely built their own models. They say they're copyright compliant. But just this morning they've, they've out with a partnership with chat GPT maker OpenAI to put Adobe products, a limited version of them, inside of chatbots. So they clearly realize they can't own the space entirely. They've kind of got to be everywhere that the users want to be.

[Ed Ludlow]

Bloomberg's Matt Day with the Adobe Preview, thank you very much. That's a good way to end the show. That does do it for this edition of Bloomberg Tech. But I would remind you it's not just Adobe out with earnings after the bell. Oracle is the big one probably that we're looking for. We expect a big backlog of business business with a big debt pile that we're worried about. Those are the two names we're watching in the show. It was all about Space X and an IPO we think is coming in the middle of next year. Recap that on the podcast. You know where to find it on the Bloomberg platforms and online, iHeart, Spotify and on Apple from San Francisco. Have a great afternoon. This is Bloomberg Tech.

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