Bloomberg Tech — "Tariff Uncertainty, AI Unease Rattle Tech Shares"

Date: February 23, 2026
Hosts: Caroline Hyde (New York) and Ed Ludlow (San Francisco)

Episode Overview

This episode dives deep into the recent market turbulence caused by renewed tariff uncertainty under President Trump, growing investor unease about AI’s disruptive effects—especially in software—and how both are shaking tech stocks and market sentiment. The hosts, alongside Bloomberg’s editors, analysts, and industry guests, analyze the broader implications of these macro events for the tech sector, discuss key earnings (notably Nvidia’s), and offer on-the-ground insights from global economic conferences.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Tariff Turmoil: Trump’s Policy Reset and Global Impact

• Supreme Court Ruling: President Trump’s previous use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to enact global tariffs has been struck down (00:50). The administration quickly pivoted, signing a new executive order to impose a 10% tariff using alternative legal authority—announcing plans for a likely increase to 15%.
• Global Fallout: Trading partners including the EU, India, and China are reassessing their trade agreements with the US. The EU has paused final approval of its US deal, and India postponed trade meetings. Uncertainty is rife, especially with Trump set to meet Xi Jinping in China next month (03:40).
• Tech-Specific Impacts: Tariffs threaten US manufacturing investments from Taiwan, Japan, South Korea, and the EU—especially in semiconductors and data centers. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick hinted at higher tariffs if these partners don’t follow through (05:15).

Quote:
“Now those authorities are going to take months to investigate and to actually execute and carry out. And that is going to add a whole lot of uncertainty for those trading partners, including the European Union… and India.”
— Mike Shepherd (Bloomberg Senior Tech Editor), 03:20

2. Tech Industry Response & Need for Certainty

Jason Oxman, CEO, Information Technology Industry Council joins to discuss what tech companies want:

• Certainty to Invest: Without stable trade policy, it’s hard for tech to plan investments and supply chains.
• Global Integration: Many AI and semiconductor projects need foreign investment; tariffs threaten critical components and exporting finished technology.
• Digital Trade at Risk: US-EU digital trade alone is a $1 trillion market at risk due to current uncertainty.
• Tariffs: Tactic vs. Strategy: Tariffs may be a negotiating tool, but are not a long-term industrial policy.

Quote:
“Tariffs are good tactics in a lot of negotiation, but they're not a broader strategy… what the tech industry is looking for going forward is a lot more certainty.”
— Jason Oxman, 10:10

3. Market Impact: Earnings Jitters and Valuation Pressures

• NASDAQ and Crypto Drop: The NASDAQ 100 hit session lows (down 1.3% at recording), bitcoin dipped below $65K, and anxiety permeated risk assets (01:40).
• Nvidia in Focus: As Nvidia prepares to report earnings, the stock is flat amid high expectations but waning momentum (17:00). Investors look for signs the company can dispel macro-economic fears and reignite confidence.
• Software Selloff: Companies like Salesforce (down 34% YTD) and Workday are crushed as investors express concern about AI disrupting software business models (20:00).

Quote:
“They've lost some of the buzz. You know, they usually would beat and raise and shares would gain. We haven’t seen that in the last few quarters.”
— Carmen Reineke (Bloomberg), 19:35

4. Indiscriminate AI-Related Selling and Macro Uncertainty

• Hardware vs. Software: Hardware makers like Nvidia are less directly exposed to AI disruption, while software names face indiscriminate selling as investors realize it's unclear who will thrive post-AI (22:45).
• Long-Term Shifts: The move to diversify manufacturing and supply chains (US, Mexico, India, Asia) is likely to endure due to persistent policy unpredictability (26:15).

Quote:
“We’ve been saying we don’t necessarily know who the winners and losers are... people have realized that and just sort of indiscriminately sold a lot of the market.”
— Shanti Kellerman (7IM CIO), 22:55

5. Private Credit & Software: Jitters Spread

• Blue Owl Capital Shuts Fund: Private credit markets are rattled as Blue Owl closes a fund, reflecting broader worries about software companies’ prospects in the AI era (32:20).
• Lack of Transparency: Investors are nervous about opaque risks in credit portfolios highly exposed to software.

Quote:
“With this kind of transformative, paradigmatic...effect on that industry (software SaaS), it makes it very hard for investors to judge mid term and long term prospects...”
— Silas Brown (Bloomberg Private Credit Reporter), 33:30

6. Breaking Headlines: PayPal & M&A

• PayPal Takeover Interest: Amid a 46% 12-month drop, PayPal fields buyout offers, driving stock volatility (37:40).
• Payment and Software Sectors as M&A Targets: With valuations low, strategic and private equity buyers eye payment/software companies for acquisition.

Geopolitical & Economic Conference Takeaways

• NABE Conference: Fed officials and AI firms (Anthropic) emphasize the uncertainty AI brings to labor markets and productivity (44:00).
• Tariffs Likely to Persist: US macro policy experts agree the new 15% tariffs are legal but temporary, with potential for more sector-specific actions pending investigations.
• Fed Impact: The Fed views tariffs as a short-term inflation risk, now delayed as policy ambiguity drags on.

Quote:
“The speed at which AI can process tasks that humans do is doubling every seven months.”
— Peter McCrory (Anthropic), as relayed by Michael McKee (Bloomberg), 45:40

Investor Sentiment & Outlook

• Negative Mood Prevails: Investors remain hesitant to “buy the dip” in software, as near-term results are overshadowed by long-term uncertainty about AI’s effects (49:27).
• M&A and “Value Picking” Expected: Interest in depressed sectors (like PayPal and broader software) may spur acquisition activity as investors hunt for bargains (51:00).

Other Notable Moments and Industry News

• Anthropic’s Claude Code Tool: Rapid adoption surprised the company's own leaders and has had ripple effects across cybersecurity and software, contributing to sector volatility (1:00:40).
• OpenAI’s Long-Term Forecasts: OpenAI projects $280 billion in revenue by 2030, reflecting aggressive expectations for AI industry growth.
• Continued Scrutiny of Streaming M&A: DOJ widens probe into Netflix/Warner Brothers deal, as Paramount and Netflix bids battle regulatory and investor challenges (1:10:00).
• Management Challenges: With AI a multi-year disruption, managers at software firms struggle to reassure markets, even as valuations reach historical lows (1:17:35).

Timestamps for Major Segments

• 00:50: Tariff policy reset and global trade implications
• 03:40: Trade agreements unravel: EU, India, China
• 05:15: Impact on US tech investment (Taiwan, Korea, EU)
• 10:10: Tech industry’s call for certainty (Jason Oxman interview)
• 17:00: Nvidia earnings preview
• 19:35: Software selloff and AI disruption fears
• 22:45: Indiscriminate selling in the AI era
• 26:15: Manufacturing diversification and uncertainty
• 32:20: Blue Owl Capital fund closure and private credit caution
• 37:40: PayPal takeover interest breaks
• 44:00: On the ground at NABE—Fed and Anthropic on AI & productivity
• 51:00: Opportunity in battered software—M&A speculation
• 1:00:40: Claude Code, Anthropic, and “surprise” AI tools
• 1:10:00: Netflix-Paramount-Warner Brothers M&A battle; DOJ antitrust scrutiny
• 1:17:35: Management struggles in the software sector

Memorable Quotes

• “Tariffs are good tactics in a lot of negotiation, but they're not a broader strategy…what the tech industry is looking for going forward is a lot more certainty.” — Jason Oxman, 10:10

• “They’ve lost some of the buzz. You know, they usually would beat and raise and shares would gain. We haven’t seen that in the last few quarters.” — Carmen Reineke, 19:35

• "The speed at which AI can process tasks that humans do is doubling every seven months." — Peter McCrory (as quoted by Michael McKee), 45:40

• “It's a mixed picture... some of the more point solutions software companies [will] struggle with AI competition. And then there will be other companies that... will thrive.” — Jed Ellerbrook, 53:50

Summary

The tech industry is grappling with double-barreled uncertainty: Trump’s shifting tariff policy injects fresh risk into global trade relationships and supply chains, just as the AI revolution stirs existential questions for the traditional software business model. Markets are rattled, investors are cautious, and analysts expect continued volatility until clarity emerges—whether through new bilateral deals, earnings reports, or a better understanding of which tech companies will ride the AI wave and which may be left behind.

The episode offers actionable insight for tech investors, executives, and anyone tracking the intersection of policy, geopolitics, and innovation.