Bloomberg Tech: "TikTok Says Its Reached a US-Majority Ownership Deal"

Date: December 19, 2025
Host: Ed Ludlow (San Francisco), Caroline Hyde (New York)
Key Guests: Kevin Mayer (former TikTok CEO, Candle Media), Kurt Wagner (Bloomberg), Michael Shepherd (Bloomberg), Amy Webb (Future Today Strategy Group), Stephanie Aliaga (JP Morgan), Tiffany Wade (Columbia Threadneedle)

Episode Overview

This episode spotlights TikTok's announcement of a new US-majority ownership structure, a historic step designed to address national security concerns and keep the platform operational in the United States. The show examines the deal’s structure, the ongoing regulatory hurdles, implications for US-China tech relations, and the broader context of tech competition, AI investment, and capital markets.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Details of the TikTok US Ownership Deal

• ByteDance's Reduced Stake: ByteDance, TikTok's Chinese parent, will retain less than a 20% stake in the new US-based entity.
• Algorithm Licensing: ByteDance will license its algorithm to the new entity, which will adapt and train it on US-only user data, handled by Oracle.
• Operational Independence: ByteDance is barred from an operational role, complying with new US laws targeting foreign participation.
• Key US Stakeholders: Oracle to hold ~15%, with significant private equity and Middle Eastern investments.
• Regulatory Questions: Despite enthusiasm, some question whether ByteDance’s continued involvements (ownership/licensing) fully comply with US law.
  • Kurt Wagner: "ByteDance is not supposed to have any operational role in this new US TikTok. ... Those who are following the letter of the law do have questions." [03:37]

Notable Quotes:

• Kurt Wagner (on legal ambiguities):

  "Is ByteDance's involvement, even if it's a small ownership stake or as a licensing partner on the algorithm, considered too much?" [03:37]

• Ed Ludlow (on stakeholders):

  "Oracle... is playing an outsized role with a 15% holding. But there are private equity involvement, there's Middle Eastern involvement." [04:27]

2. Kevin Mayer on the Deal's Impact and Functionality

• Operational Effectiveness: Mayer believes the deal works, especially Oracle's role as trusted steward of US data.
• Algorithm Transfer: The algorithm will be run on Oracle servers, trained solely on US data, offering a "vastly different feed" for US users.
• Commercial Role of ByteDance: While ByteDance will remain involved in commercialization (e.g., selling ads), the US operation will be separate and governed by a US board.
• Content Interoperability: The system remains global in content access, though recommendations will be US-focused.

Notable Quotes:

• Kevin Mayer (on algorithm divergence):

  "All the code put on Oracle servers and then trained on the US data that Oracle alone has access to... It's going to end up having a vastly different feed and sort of content algorithm than you'll see around the world." [05:55]

• On fairness and national security:

  "They've earned that right to have a participation in profits... I do think that from a national security perspective, again, having that data walled off... that is controlled by Oracle… I think this is going to solve... legitimate national security concerns." [09:11]

• On global content:

  "If it were to be siphoned off... from the rest of the world and having a US-only presence, I think that would be a big detriment to US users. ... From a user perspective, [they will] seamlessly access content from around the world and vice versa. It's the recommendation that will be US based only." [08:19]

3. Market & Industry Implications

Oracle’s Business Outlook

• Data Center Expansion & Revenue Projections: The deal signals strong revenue guidance and new infrastructure builds for Oracle, despite concerns about debt levels.
• Market Response: Oracle’s share price rose on the news of the TikTok deal, part of a broader "risk on" mode in the tech market.

OpenAI & Private Markets Surge

• Valuation Milestones: Wall Street Journal reports OpenAI targets an $830B valuation, overtaking SpaceX as the highest-valued private tech firm.
• AI Startup Growth: Stephanie Aliaga notes AI startups are hitting $100M revenue in under a year, previously a decade-long feat.
• Impending IPOs: Private tech titans like OpenAI and SpaceX might soon go public, reshaping index weightings and public investor access.

Notable Quotes:

• Stephanie Aliaga:

  “If you want some of that growth exposure, you’re going to need to look in private markets... selectivity is going to be really, really important.” [24:33]

• Tiffany Wade:

  “The market being discerning about these names is a good indication we’re not in a bubble territory right now. ... The amount of CapEx expected to be spent on AI infrastructure... their free cash flow dwarfs that.” [47:31]

4. US-China Tech & Diplomatic Tensions

• Regulatory Gray Areas: The deal awaits Chinese government approval, which remains a critical uncertainty.
• Wider Tech War: The episode contextualizes TikTok’s situation within broader US-China competition in chips, quantum computing, and AI.
• Potential Policy Barriers: Cross-currents include US chip exports to China, Taiwanese arms sales, and trade relations.

Notable Quotes:

• Michael Shepherd:

  “The loose end really... is Chinese government approval. And we may never really hear a full-throated blessing from Beijing.” [27:09]

• Amy Webb:

  “Oracle is a bit of a mixed bag... But at the end of the day, business is just about relationships and Larry Ellison is a friend of Donald Trump.” [30:32] “China has spent years investing in infrastructure... The US has really had sort of a freewheeling innovation focus... We don’t have the physical infrastructure to support a lot of that, which is why you hear so much about data centers and energy consumption.” [31:48]

5. The Future of Media & Content Ecosystem

• Short-Form Video Dominance: Short-form content—pioneered by YouTube, propelled by TikTok—has upended traditional Hollywood. Companies like Candle Media (Moonbug, CoComelon) are capitalizing on multi-channel, multiplatform IP generation.
• Industry Consolidation: Possible mergers (e.g., Warner Bros. with either Netflix or Paramount) are seen as crucial for Hollywood’s competitiveness versus global tech/digital giants.

Notable Quotes:

• Kevin Mayer:

  "There is a sea change in how people consume content, where the influence comes from... What’s more central to the culture? Hollywood? TikTok? YouTube? The answer is it's a mix of all the above." [12:16]

Important Timestamps

• [03:37] – Kurt Wagner explains ByteDance’s limited role and regulatory questions.
• [05:55] – Kevin Mayer defends the deal, Oracle’s stewardship, and algorithm transfer.
• [07:20] – Mayer on the technical challenge of forking the algorithm.
• [08:19] – Mayer on the necessity of global interoperability in TikTok’s content.
• [09:11] – Mayer on ByteDance’s profit share and national security structure.
• [12:16] – Mayer compares Hollywood and new digital media models.
• [14:10] – Mayer on repercussions for Disney, Warner Bros., and industry consolidation.
• [20:14] – Mandeep Singh discusses Oracle’s financial prospects and risk factors post-TikTok deal.
• [21:27] – 24:33 – Stephanie Aliaga: AI market trends, private vs. public investment, anticipated IPOs.
• [27:09] – Michael Shepherd on the last regulatory hurdles in the TikTok deal.
• [30:32] – 33:20 – Amy Webb on US-China relations, technology races, and infrastructure.
• [36:21] – Liam Knox: OpenAI’s push into higher education.
• [44:14] – 48:52 – Tiffany Wade: Tech market outlook for 2026, AI, and labor impacts.

Memorable Moments & Quotes

• "It's going to end up having a vastly different feed... than you'll see around the world." – Kevin Mayer on US TikTok's split algorithm [05:55]
• "No one has to date [pushed back], but those who are following the letter of the law do have questions." – Kurt Wagner on regulatory compliance [03:37]
• "At the moment China is winning, which is a controversial view, but let me tell you why..." – Amy Webb on US-China tech infrastructure [31:48]
• "This seems like a permanent solution. ... The only element of doubt here and risk is that China hasn't come out and explicitly... blessed the deal yet." – Kevin Mayer [10:39]

Flow, Tone & Takeaways

The dialogue is brisk, informed, and technically nuanced, befitting an audience aware of regulatory, market, and geopolitical dynamics. The guests blend optimism about TikTok’s prospects with pragmatic caution regarding execution, regulatory snafus, and the ongoing rivalry between the US and China. Broader tech industry themes—AI’s market impact, private market exuberance, and changing media consumption—are woven throughout.

Summary for Non-Listeners

This episode provides a thorough primer on TikTok’s new structure to comply with US security concerns, featuring exclusive commentary from former CEO Kevin Mayer, analysis on the regulatory tightrope, and insights into broader US-China tech competition. It also discusses the surge in AI investing, Oracle’s pivotal role in the deal, and evolving media monetization strategies—placing TikTok’s transformation in context with ongoing tech, investment, and geopolitical headlines.