Transcript
A (0:00)
Cybercriminals. Count on chaos. Count on Veeam to stop them fast. Partner with them and get 24. 7 ransomware support from the first red flag to full recovery. Whatever the world throws at your data, it's all good. Learn more@veeam.com that's VECOM introducing the all new Adobe Acrobat studio now with AI powered PDF spaces. Do more with PDFs than you ever thought possible. Need AI to turn 100 pages of market research into 5 insights with a click? Do that with Acrobat. Need templates for a sales proposal that'll close that deal. Do that with Acrobat. Need an AI specialist to tailor the tone of your market report to sound real smart in real time. Do that with the all new Adobe Acrobat Studio. Learn more@adobe.com Dothatwith Acrobat your next product launch is coming fast. Don't let billing slow you down. Legacy systems can't handle usage based billing. That means your team is stuck gluing code together, piecing through spreadsheets and running ad hoc queries just to figure out what to bill. With Metronome, you can roll out new pricing in minutes instead of months, whether it's usage based, seat based or a hybrid model. Visit metronome.com to see how companies like OpenAI and Anthropic launch billing as fast as they launch products. That's metronome.com Bloomberg Audio Studios podcasts Radio News Bloomberg Tech is live from coast to co with Caroline Hyde in New York and Ed Ludlow in San Francisco. This is Bloomberg Tech. Coming up, President Trump advances plans for American investors to buy Tick Tock's US operations with a potential value of $14 billion. As we discuss the latest AI bubble warning, Hedge fund manager David Einhorn cautions that huge spending on infrastructure may destroy vast amounts of capital. And our conversation with Qualcomm CEO on the changing chip landscape in the wake of Nvidia's intel deal. And a lot more, A lot more, including the market look. Over the last five days we have seen pressure on tech stocks more broadly. You're putting in the macro perspective of maybe we lean away from just the Federal Reserve being the key function tactic here. And indeed we start to question valuations more broadly. We're off by more than a percentage point on the nasdaq. Not significant moves. The biggest drop in the five day basis that we've seen since the beginning of August, but still notable in turn of sentiment. Where sentiment has really changed is crypto strategy, more formally known as MicroStrategy the worst performer on the week and I'm looking at bitcoin off by 5.6%. Key day for options expiry today. Ed, what are you looking at? Okay, this is a story that's moving tech and moving markets. Intel and Global Foundries are both up significantly. The Wall Street Journal is reporting that the Trump administration is looking at a policy where it will require US Chip makers on a one for one basis to have the equivalent number of chips manufactured the US as they do their customers import from overseas. We'll try and match that, but it's moving markets. Then there's Oracle. So Oracle on a five day basis on track for its biggest weekly drop since April. We know more about the structure of a deal for U.S. tikTok. The breaking news in the last hour. Bloomberg reporting citing sources that even in the event that this deal is done and completed, China and ByteDance will still take more than half the profits from US operations of tick Tock. Let's get all the details with Bloomberg's Alex Levine who covers social media and has been all over this story. Let's start with what happened out in the White House last night. The President, the Treasury Secretary all explaining to us, along with the Vice President, Alex, the structure of this deal. What is new and what do we know? Well, I think what we know about the deal so far is that Oracle is set to play a huge role in helping the new US TikTok entity Secure user data and also the algorithm that is going to be leased from ByteDance for the United States to use and retrain using all US user data. What we saw from the White House yesterday at the executive order signing there was actually not that much new in terms of what we know as far as China's, China, where China stands on this. There were a lot of questions from reporters about what sorts of nod or what sorts of approval the Chinese President has given to Trump. And it seems that Trump has been sending some mixed messaging on exactly where China stands. But I do think that one thing that is becoming clearer is that as we begin to learn more about the, the structure of the deal and what ByteDance will get from it, there are more and more questions and I think some more scrutiny and even criticism from members of Trump's own party over, over what the eventual, what the eventual outcome will be. I think exactly that. Look, the Chinese Embassy has made the latest statement saying the US Side needs to provide an open, fair and non discriminatory environment for Chinese investors. So no, yes, go for it. You can Take this part of TikTok and start reworking the underlying algorithm. For me, the question is, is Oracle to be overseeing the algorithm changes and more broadly, how on earth are they going to separate the US version? And more broadly, what about the latest Reuters reporting that we're seeing that maybe bytedance does end up still controlling operations? Would that in any way satisfy national security issues here? Well, I think it depends who you ask on this first question that you had, which is is Oracle the right partner for this? You asked the Trump administration, you asked the White House? Absolutely. They said yesterday that Oracle has been partnering with TikTok for several years already on to cordon off US user data from ByteDance's global operations in China. But I think one thing that's very top of mind for me is that TikTok and Oracle have been working together on this for years and it has been an imperfect solution. This was proposed as a solution to the Biden administration back in 2022, and after years of negotiations with a framework that looked almost identical to what we're now talking about with TikTok and Oracle today, the Biden administration was not comfortable that this would adequately solve national security concerns. So you're starting to hear from lawmaker and others in across Washington that this might just be a new version of that and if so, that that's just not going to cut it Very similar to Project Texas from your own reporting, Alex Levine, thanks for breaking that down. Still so many questions to answer, but let's just talk about the advertising side of all of this and bring in Rachel Tippograph, Founder CEO of analytics platform Micmac. With all these questions remaining about how on earth the algorithm continues and whether we all remain 170 million US users using it as much, what are advertising decisions being made right now? Advertisers in a wait and see mode right now, it is still commonplace for TikTok and we're actually seeing all time high traffic. In September 1st, 20% of total traffic from advertisers was allocated to Tik Tok. If we date back to Q1 it was 10%. So people still see TikTok as a place to build brand and drive performance all at once. That being said, major advertisers have contingency plans the moment that TikTok America is created. I don't think we're going to see traffic at 20%. These major advertisers are going to wait to see if the user base is still there, if the engagement is still there, and if the ad performance results are still There. If those things are to be true, then absolutely you'll see dollars move into TikTok America. But in the meantime you're going to probably see a short term boom to environments like Metta and Alphabet where there are other places to invest your short form video ad dollars. How is this going to impact efficiencies for brands? Because at the moment you can go to one platform platform and have global reach. That's going to be really important for some of these global companies if they have to silo off a US targeted ad versus global. Absolutely. There's a domino effect here. A lot of these major advertisers, they have these global joint business plans in place where they're guaranteeing ad dollars across multiple geographies. Advertisers have major question marks. Are those agreements going to be thrown out the window? And then from the actual operating standpoint there has been a single platform to do buying measurement and optimizations. It is unclear now if advertisers are going to have to log into multiple platforms. And then Carolyn, for your point, what are the results going to be? Which is why major advertisers, they have choices, they can go invest dollars in other places. It's the SMB businesses that have been heavily raised reliant on an environment like Tick Tock or Amazon where they might go all in. But if they don't see those results, I promise you you're going to see dollars move out of that environment back into places like Met and Google. Rachel, what we do know from the reporting is that there will be a retraining or even from the ground up rebuild of the algorithm. How worried are people in your community and your network that that basically removes what makes TikTok good for them? That the algorithm is not as effective as it currently is when Oracle has been able to review it and change it? Yeah, it's, it's less about the algorithm and it's more about will user engagement still holding hold and will the effectiveness of the ads, meaning the cost per impression or the cost per click or the cost per sale, will those hold? If those things don't hold, you will see dollars move out. So the algorithm is a mechanism to make those things true. But what advertisers are really concerned about is results. What Bloomberg has reported is that ByteDance is still going to get 50% of the profits from a US TikTok and that MG X, a state backed investment vehicle of UAE is one of the anchor investors. If you're a content creator on TikTok or you're an advertiser on TikTok. Do you care about either of those considerations? If you're an advertiser on TikTok and you're a global brand, I'm talking Fortune 1000 brands, you care about two things. You care about performance, but then you also care about brand safety. And so if they don't feel that their concerns are being addressed by this new ownership structure around brand safety, then yes, they will care. If they believe it's being addressed, then it's irrelevant to them. Creators, creators care more about the culture and the community. Will the community still stay in TikTok? Will the vibe still be the same? They don't really care about the ownership structure as long as the community engagement is there. Let's talk about a name that you said that maybe will be benefiting amid all of this and is matter and the move to Instagram in this moment by advertising dollars. But what's happening in Europe at the moment is interesting with matter as well and the UK and being forced to basically add a subscription offer rather than offering just advertising advertising. How are advertisers looking at that? How much do they anticipate people will go for an ad free version of Instagram? I love what's happening right now because we can look at Mick Max data globally. We do operate globally and it's really interesting. The laws that are taking place in the EU and UK when it comes to advertising is way more stricter than the US and as a result, platforms like Meta have struggled in recent years in those environments. In 2023, Meta had to introduce the same ad free tier in the EU and there's been no public data whether users have adopted that or not. The only thing that we've seen happen is that the price per tier come down, which is a signal that maybe adoption was initially there. Fast forward, the UK government is adopting very similar rules as the EU where they are putting very strict guardrails in place and how platforms can target users. And essentially you have to opt in 100% and if you don't opt in 100%, then you have to pay for an ad free tier. What's interesting is that right now in the UK, 75% of AD investment is happening in Metta. Meanwhile in the EU it's closer to 36%, which is another signal that if this happens in the uk, you're going to start to see ad diversification outside of Metta into other platforms. So it's actually the reverse of what's happening in the us. In the us, opportunity for Meta to grab market market share in the UK they might actually lose market share right now. Mick Mac CEO Rachel Super Graff back on Bloomberg Tech back in force. Great to have you on the show. A story we're tracking. Zhao Me unveiled a smartphone designed to take on the just released iPhone 17, underscoring the Chinese company's broader ambitions to take on US rivals from Apple to Tesla. The Xiaomi 17, which will be offered in Pro and Pro Max models, just like Apple's marquee series, starts at $630 for the most basic model and rising to about $840 at the top end, more than $100 cheaper than the base iPhone 17 car. Let's get back to AI now. And because coming up, computing powerhouses that are feeding the air boom, testing explosive growth of their own, how will this compute market evolve? More on that next. This is Bloomberg Tech. The revolution is fueling explosive growth for companies selling computing power. Core Weave, despite forecasting losses this year, is valued at over $50 billion, while Oracle has added 250 billion to its market cap. That surge is subject of this weekend's essay by Bloomberg Ideas and Culture senior writer Felix Salmon, who joins us now. I spoke to the Core Weave CEO last night and I basically put to him that all of the people in this ecosystem are writing checks they can't cash. The demand is there, but their ability to pay for it, the infrastructure needs to be built. Maybe it's not. And you make a really smart case on just how wide some of the losses are with all the spending as as much as they have momentum in what they're doing. And what that in financial terms is called is counterparty risk. That if you are selling, if you are building data centers and you're expecting trillions of dollars of demand, then what you're worried about is the people who are contracting to pay. Like, you know, OpenAI has said that it's going to pay Oracle $300 billion, that they just won't have that money because they're losing money and where are they going to be able to find it? You know, Nvidia can't just throw billions of dollars at them forever. And so the big question then comes how are they going to be able to hedge that counterparty risk? And the answer to that question is what if compute is actually traded as a commodity on markets, on exchanges, that solves a huge number of problems and people are already walking that line and already building that offering. It seems like Felix push us forward as to how we could get what you Call really these combinatorial auctions combine. Yeah, it's something called the Milgram Assignment Auction. And all markets are auctions. Right. If you think about the stock market, people are bidding every microsecond for how much they're willing to bid and offer on various stocks. And that's a very simple auction. It's just like there's one object and you can have a single price of that object. It's a share of stock. Other auctions, other commodities, have more complicated things. Like in the oil market, you have to invent these standards like Brent crude or West Texas Intermediate, that people can sort of agree on. When you're talking about something as complicated as compute, where there are hundreds of different variables that people care about, what chips you have, how you know how much uptime there is, what time of day you're using, all of this kind of stuff, then you need a very sophisticated auction that is powered itself by AI. But we have these companies, 1 Chronos and Auctionomics, that are actually building that right now. And really, it's super necessary. Without it, we aren't going to be able to see the level of investment that people are sure is coming. Food for thought. And that's exactly what your job description is. Felix Salmon. It's a great read. Go dive into it this weekend. But for more on AI and the questioning of valuations around AI as well, let's talk to Stephanie Eliaga. She's global market strategist at J.P. morgan. Look, we just had the latest David Einhorn coming out saying, I'm worried about the sheer scale of infrastructure investment at the moment and that billions is going to be lost in terms of capital. What are you thinking of these warnings around the bubble? Yeah, it's clear we're seeing explosive demand, demand growth that we've really never seen before. That doesn't mean it's not real, but it does mean that we should continue to really look at these valuations and perform these sanity checks. And what gives me some confidence when I'm performing my sanity check is that this infrastructure wave, as significant as it is, is powered by real demand growth that is already showing up in the numbers. It's funded by real cash flows. And even after all of this enormous spending, the four major hyperscalers, there's still free cash flow positive. And so there's a lot of demand. And still the supply constraint on infrastructure is there. So there's no, like, house of cards underneath this infrastructure wave, I'd say. But still, I think the AI theme is it's A long term one deep seq was one upset that we had earlier this year. There will surely be others. And right now we're in this kind of period of digestion. But I think we're just waiting for that next piece of bullish commentary and data and then we're going to appreciate the fundamentals once more. Stephanie, every phone call I get at the moment about specific infrastructure deal, there's an element of debt involved. How closely are you tracking that and are you worried about it? So the infrastructure spending boom is beyond just those four major hyperscalers, Right. That fifth in line is, you know, came out with a bond deal this week. So we are seeing that it's going to cost a lot of money and you know, the debt markets are coming in to help fund some of those gaps in spending. I'm not incredibly worried about that just yet. I mean the bargain that bond investors are making is that there will ultimately be enough revenue generated from this to pay back the bonds. That's so maybe a more conservative bet than what equity markets are making by putting more money into these leading mega caps that already have sky high valuations. But more broadly, I think it just shows that, you know, this infrastructure wave has a lot of urgency behind it and it's beginning to touch many other corners of the market. The corporate bond market is one of them. But we're also seeing it in utilities and infrastructure and public, public and private and so forth. I mean a 40 year bond with what was it ended up a yield of just about 1.65 percentage points over Treasuries feels like, I mean, relatively little to have to pay for the price of that longer term debt. But there is belief. I want to go back to the comment you made. This isn't a house of cards. How do you feel though about some of the circularity arguments that are going on that basically it's the same people are buying, basically giving money in equity the promise of buying their GPUs later? Absolutely. Markets have been rewarding large capital spending commitments and we should not be rewarding redundant capital spending commitments. And I think that is one of the, I guess the sanity checks that we've all performed this week is okay, it seems like capital sloshing from one balance sheet to another balance sheet. But a lot of the comparisons that are being made to the dot com bubble of companies selling banner ads to one another trying to juice up their valuations. What's different this time around is the spending is grounded in real infrastructure, real chip spending, real data centers, and so that gives me a bit more confidence on that. But we absolutely should not be rewarding companies for redundant capital spending commitments. Stephanie, really quick, can the global energy sector meet the demand? That's the million dollar question, right? Billion to trillion dollar question. I guess the the reality is it's going to take all hands on deck. And while a lot of data center power commitments have been made, in fact this year enough to power New York, Chicago and L A for a year, that's the degree of power commitments that have been made. A lot of that's in the pipeline. The reality is we are confronting a very aged infrastructure grid. We it's going to take time until the 2030s at minimum, until nuclear power, even new natural gas power is going to be there. In the meantime, there's hope that we can get a lot more efficient and that the demand is it's tracking up, but it's also tracking up gradually. Right? So we're not too worried about that real I think bottleneck moment happening. It seems a few years into the future and until then maybe we see more efficiency gains or the cost of compute have come down 98% already. Stephanie Aliaga, global market strategist at JP Morgan Asset Management. Thank you very much. So coming up, Bloomberg Tech Asia sat down with Halton new from Baidu Apollo, China's biggest robotaxi operator. Conversations next. This is Bloomberg Tech. Data threats don't knock. They sneak in quietly, make themselves right at home. But when you partner with Veeam, you can spot threats before they're a threat to your business. Whatever the world throws at your data, it's all good. Get data resilient@veeam.com that's V E-E-A-M.com this is what the market used to sound like. Pretty complex. But today with iShares by BlackRock, investing is easier. With over 450 ETFs, iShares gives you easy access to countless market opportunities. IShares by BlackRock the market is yours. Visit www.ushers.com to view perspectives, which includes investment objectives, risk, squeeze expenses and other information you should read and consider carefully before investing. Risk includes principal loss. Prepared by BlackRock Investments LLC. Member Fino introducing the all new Adobe Acrobat studio, now with AI powered PDF spaces. Do more with PDFs than you ever thought possible. Need AI to turn 100 pages of market research into 5 insights with a click. Do that with Acrobat. Need templates for a sales proposal that'll close that deal. Do that with Acrobat. Need an AI specialist to tailor the tone of your market report to sound real smart in real time. Do that with the all new Adobe Acrobat Studio. Learn more at adobe.com/do that with Acrobat the race bring driverless taxis to the world it is on. And while the likes of Waymo have focused on establishing domestic strongholds strongholds Chinese companies are aggressively expanding internationally. Here is Baidu Apollo's Global Manager of Overseas business, Halton News speaking with Bloomberg Tech Asia. Annabel drew us I think both Waymo and Baidu Apollo we are the only two company who provide over 1000 cars in all the cities. What does your expansion plan and your and your scale up look like? We have have already signed several legally binding contract with different partners globally. Any single one of them is regarding thousands level of robotaxis deployment. I believe once we remove the safety driver from the car, you know the numbers of deployment can can raise gigantically right? Since what we are aiming for is is the real autonomous driver is without safety driver. With working with US Companies Uber and Lyft, do you see any risk of of geopolitics coming into the equation as well? From Baidu's perspective we think both China and the US have enough ability and wisdom to overcome such kind of geopolitical problems or difficulties. So we believe yes think we are also communists working for for for new technology also for profit for profile generating profits for for both companies. So I think everything will be good in the end. That was Baidu Apollo's halter new along with our own Annabel Jewelers. Check out the full episode of Bloomberg Tech Asia Online or on the Bloomberg Terminal. A lot of stories coming out of the region now coming coming up, more on TikTok as President Trump advances plans for US investors to buy the social media platform in the US about that story next. This is Bloomberg Tech. Welcome back to Bloomberg Tech. Caroline Sounding the Tech IPO Watch Klaxon the alarm and the name I'm looking at is klarna, down almost 6% in the session. But the reason that's notable is the shares trading at $39.09 a share, meaning they are down below the $40 IPO price pretty quickly as well. Like think of all the other IPOs you and I have covered in recent weeks and months and some of them had a lot of long term momentum. This feels like a equity pretty quick drop back and there is a broader sell off in fintech right now, but it's one to watch this Friday. Sorry to bring the mood down but it's a, it's a notable moment. So Oracle. Yeah, sorry, I just got carried away. I'm having a good time. Oracle over the course of five days is down almost 8%. Also bearing in mind broader momentum that it's had in recent weeks. Right. But it kind of sell the news week where we got a lot more detail on its participation in US Tick tock and how it's going to operationally and as an anchor investor and board seat member run things. But that five day drop, biggest since April. Please take it away. I will. Because yes, Oracle's run far higher in recent months and no wonder there's been a profit taking. But we are going to drill into Oracle, its potential Tik Tok investment and the role that it plays. The Bloomberg's Brody Ford who covers the company and there was a, a great opinion piece out of our colleague Dave Lee who really puts out really the question of what expertise does Oracle, a cloud company have when it comes to social media algorithms? Brody, Not a whole lot. I think maybe they would tell you as much as. Well I think it's very interesting how much rhetorical value the administration has placed on Oracle's involvement. They are the kind of technological underpinning of a lot of the operations, but they're the cloud vendor. Right. I mean they are not an algorithm designing company, they're not a business operations social media, they're not a consumer company, period. Right. And so as Oracle takes a very large role on the stage of how this TikTok deal is rolled out, my anticipation is that their role doesn't change a whole lot from what it is today, which is a cloud infrastructure vendor. Brody, you and I have spent a lot of the last 36 hours on the phone trying to work this out, so let's swap notes. My understanding is that the Trump administration went to mgx, which is a basically state backed investment firm in the UAE and invited them to participate. You also have some details on these kind of anchors, anchor investors and what role they'll take. Just give us your notes please. Right, so these three anchor investors will likely get about a 15% share each and a board seat. The exact numbers may shift around but the idea is that these are the kind of three anchor non Chinese investors kind of each coming from somewhat different backgrounds. Oracle, we've discussed NGX being an Emirati investment company and Silver Lake being a US tech focused investment company. And so I think the idea is showing that hey, there's a breadth of folks behind this initiative. Though of course the reporting is very live in terms of exactly what these three companies are going to be buying the most. Brady Ford, busy week for you. A lot more reporting to come. Thank you very much. Let's bring in Teresa Payton. She's the CEO of Fortalist Solutions and the former White House Chief Information officer under George W. Bush administration. Teresa, if we may, I want to go to the UAE piece of this first because you know, the emphasis from the administration was making us tick tock American. The UAE is an ally of the United States in defense, for example. You know, there is weapons and other agreements there. But in, in the context of something that is digital, what do you make of MGX participating as an anchor investor and potential board seat holder of a US tick tock? Well, I think it's very interesting. Obviously they have deep enough pockets to be a part of this, which is, you know, kind of part of the deal negotiation. But I do have some open questions because there are some open questions about how they feel about social media for their own citizens. And, and so now we're talking about we're going to have some type of a twin algorithm because ByteDance is still going to have the algorithm, but we're going to have it here in the United States and we're going to be retraining it on U.S. data. And so I've got a lot of questions around that board seat and what kind of voting rights, what kind of direction, what kind of influence they may have over this sort of digital twin of an algorithm. We're going to have the US and how that retraining is going to happen. Okay, from a pure technology standpoint, how do you think this is going to work, really, the algorithm or is it going to work at all? Well, hopefully they've got some really great engineers working on this. So whenever you kind of go into this mode of there's going to be a master copy and then we're going to have our own local regional copy. But it's going to be essential, essentially the same, except for it's not. We're going to be training it on U.S. data. I end up having a lot of questions like what's the quality assurance for this? Will it still feel and look the same? I mean, TikTok may lose its hip and cool factor once we take sort of the global piece out of it and, and start to run it locally. So it'll be very interesting to see what the knowledge transfer will be. I know as part of Project Dallas, TikTok USA has been doing a lot of work to be in compliance with the Foreign control, you know, kind of regulations around cfius. And so it could be they already have people very well trained up to take the reins of TikTok USA's algorithm. But if they don't, I'm a little worried about how it's going to be tuned and it may be a little bumpy once we kind of do this split and have this, this algorithm twin of sort of the master copy. But it has to be retrained and let's face it, if that bytedance Tick tock employees have been working on Project Texas who says that ByteDance is going to want them to move to US TikTok. So we have to question what engineering talent follows through. Theresa, I'm also interested. There's been some Reuters reporting and Bloomberg's yet to be confirming on it, but the idea that actually ByteDance as a whole Oracle has a lot more control than perhaps had been previously thought. Yes, they perhaps give over the algorithm in a sense way and it becomes updated and monitored by the likes of Oracle. But they then hold a separate division that will continue to be wholly owned and they'll control the revenue generating business operations such as E commerce and advertising. How does that technically work and how does that make us understand it from a national security perspective? Yeah, this is very interesting to me. So I think a couple of things. One, we know the data has been physically separated but the algorithm itself, the reason why an algorithm like TikTok's was so popular and beat out most US based social media companies at least as it relates to Gen Z, Gen A and even you know, candidly other generations along lot of people have adopted TikTok and the reason why it's so good is that algorithm is constantly learning how does it learn? It has to train itself on data and where you come from, where you go to and all of those things. I don't know how the algorithm stays hip and cool and edgy if it's completely separated from ByteDance. So how does it learn if it becomes a black box of learning? So lots of questions still around how that engineering is going to work and how are they going to set this up. So for example, there is a term called digital twin where you can actually have a full production copy of production and essentially have it be the same and you know, potentially have the data be separated. We're going to have to have some really smart engineers on the US side of TikTok to really say whether or not there's backdoors, whether or not some of the data itself is truly anonymized. Or if we still have a real issue with kind of foreign interests being able to see US based citizen data and Theresa, I follow up with a relatively sensitive political question here because a lot of anxiety has been put into the potential biases that creep into this algorithm. If it's Chinese, overseen, controlled, whatever you might make of ByteDance, if it's now overseen and controlled by Oracle, what can they put in place to ensure that the users that may or may not migrate over feel comfortable with the control of algorithm by them and what biases they need to oversee? In the same way that we question other parent companies such as Metro and Snap? I love the question you're asking here because of our lack of governance and guardrails over social media platforms, platforms over big tech. As far as understanding the transparency around these algorithms, how they train things, do I as a user get to reset my algorithm? Do I get to see transparency into what's being served up to me or to my children or to my customers if I have a business account? So because we don't have that today, this is a great question and it has to be asked of all the social media and big tech platforms and you're right, we we don't know potentially who's sitting on that board. Not just Oracle, but the other investors, you know, are they going to have sort of a heavy thumb, if you will, on the algorithms and how they work? More to come, obviously Evolving story. Theresa Payton there with us, so appreciate it. CEO of Fortalest Solutions Former Bush White House CIO Coming up in a Stargate Ambitions could supercharge demand for AI power with big implications for Nvidia and Oracle. That's next. This is Bloomberg Tech. This is what the market used to sound like. Pretty complex. But today with iShares by BlackRock, investing is easier. With over 450 ETFs, iShares gives you easy access to countless market opportunities. IShares by BlackRock the market is yours. Visit www.ishares.com to view a perspective which includes investment objectives, risk, squeeze expresses and other information you should read and consider carefully before investing. Risk includes principal laws prepared by BlackRock Investments LLC member Finn Row introducing the all new Adobe Acrobat studio, now with AI powered PDF spaces. Do more with PDFs than you ever thought possible. Need AI to turn 100 pages of market research into 5 insights with a click. Do that with Acrobat. Need templates for a sales proposal that'll close that deal. Do that with Acrobat. Need an AI specialist to tailor the tone of your market report to sound real smart in real time. Do that with the all new Adobe Acrobat Studio. Learn more@adobe.com do that with Acrobat. These days, AI can help you write emails, summarize long meetings, and even create presentations that impress your most demanding customer. But how about industrial AI that uses data and simulation to boost productivity on the shop floor? AI tools that help you understand machine language. AI that helps you grow your business. With Siemens Xcelerator, you can use AI services, software and consulting from a single trusted digital business platform. Plus you can find the right AI partner without having to search through hundreds of providers. That's AI for real. From the global market leader in industrial AI. Siemens Accelerator. Learn more at Siemens.us/acceler Qualcomm CEO Cristiano Amon said that the Nvidia intel deal from earlier this week is in a way, and I quote, the moment they had been waiting for. He explains why and talks about the impact on Qualcomm and the rest of the industry. When the news broke this week, when you actually dig deeper on it and it was interesting, actually when that announcement happened, it was interesting. We were slightly up, it was kind of neutral to positive to Qualcomm. And we saw I think the market stock reaction on, on aam, on amd, on and, and then intel was up. And the way we actually look at this, we're incredibly excited because what it basically means is I think it's intel is sending a message that their integrated GPU and their AI products are, they're not going to likely not to continue with that because that's what the market is saying. It's going to be Nvidia. So then as Nvidia comes in to the integrated GPU market, combining their GPU with Intel x86, you started to bring AI into the PC market. And that is the moment we've been waiting for. And I think that's what we do. And I think the Qualcomm DNA is anything that is battery power is high performance, low battery life and a lot of AI. That's, that's where we want the market to be. Qualcomm CEO Cristiano I'm on there. Meanwhile, OpenAI's push to scale up its Stargate project is set to accelerate demand for AI compute, potentially lifting other AI sectors from Nvidia's hardware sales to Oracle's cloud services. For more, we've got Mandeep Singh, senior tech industry Analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence. The thing about everything that's happening is A misunderstanding of where the demand is being sent. And you've done a really good job. Like Microsoft is outsourcing to Oracle basically because they, they don't have their own capacity to deal with this. Just present the thesis that you're trying to get the market to understand. Yeah, Look, I mean OpenAI has told us that they expect to get to $200 billion in revenue by 2030. Currently they will likely close the year at 20 billion in error. So you know, when you look at that 70% CAGR for the next four years, I think deals like what they have signed with Oracle, the $300 billion deal and then in video signing up that hundred billion dollar investment for 10 gigawatt capacity kind of makes sense how they get to that capacity which will enable that $200 billion in revenue. And we have sliced the different kind of segments they will have. It won't be just chat CBD subscriptions, it will have API sales and agent sales. But the enabling kind of infrastructure for that will come from additional power and data center capacity that they will have from all the deals that they are doing. And that's the vision and it comes down to how they execute on that vision. There was more news with OpenAI looking towards core weave a little bit more for some of its compute needs. Now the core we've CEO joined Ed Ludlow remain a little bit earlier yesterday. Just take a listen to what he had to say. The challenge that we have is competition among our clients for the infrastructure that we have. Right. It is not a question of giving up one client for another client because their demand doesn't completely absorb all of our infrastructure. It's just a question of we have 100 units of compute to to deliver in the next 12 months. We could deliver all 100 to client number one, all 100 to client number two or all 100 to client number three. And the question is, is how are we going to divvy that up among those clients. The issue is supply side. Mandy. We say time and time again and how big therefore is the need? I've seen numbers. We started with Bain saying 2 trillion. Then we saw of course Alibaba say it's going to be 4 trillion. I've just read McKinsey's bullish case is up to 7.9 trillion by 2030. What do you have it as? Yeah, look, I think Jensen sort of laid out quite well with the $100 billion investment. He said for 10 gig watt power you need a $400 billion investment. They are putting hundred billion dollars open, I will have to find $300 billion from somewhere else. But you can actually see if we end up adding 50 gigawatt of capacity, that would make up, you know, 2 trillion number. And so from that perspective, then you start looking at how, how much will be the tokens generated from that additional 50 gigawatt power capacity capacity. And the reason why that's the right framework is because every query right now is a function of tokens consumed. I mean, Google says they have 980 trillion tokens per month and that seems to be growing quite rapidly. Every company right now is quantifying that. And so if you make it a function of power, it's easy to see where we will land up given, you know, the tokens consumed per agent or per query or any other use case that Jenny I have. And then we just need to source that power. Andeep Singh of Bloomberg Intelligence. Great analysis. Go read it. Thank you. Meanwhile, coming up, we'll take a look at how Apple lagged so far behind on AI, how it can catch up. This is Bloomberg Tech. Apple as long legend Silicon Valley in tech. But in the world of AI, it's fallen way behind. Continuing missteps could arguably threaten the iPhone's dominance. Bloomberg Originals took a deep dive into what went wrong and if Apple can catch up. Siri. What's the name of the guy I had a meeting with a couple of months ago at Cafe Grinnell? You met Zach Wingate at Cafe Grinnell. Zach. Actor Bella Ramsey was bailed out by a new version of Apple's Siri that was meant to be available for all. That feature still has not been released. Originally supposed to come out April May of 2025, but now it's on track for spring 2026. Apple took down the ad and is facing a lawsuit over the delay. But the disconnect exposed a deeper issue. The company was losing ground in the AI race. They totally missed the boat. There was indecision, there was lack of concern that this could become a real thing. This is a story about how hard it can be to stay on top. AI is something that wasn't in their DNA. Continued failure doesn't just hurt Siri. It could threaten the iPhone's dominance. The product line accounts for more than half of Apple's revenue. So missteps with what's become its most noticeable missing features could be devastating. We saw this for many decades. Nokia was at the very top of the phone industry. Apple came out with a much better Mousetrap. BlackBerry was at the top of the industry. Apple came out with a better mousetrap. They are going to be in danger of the next Apple being created if they don't get their act together soon with some serious acquisitions changes in partnerships. You can catch the full episode@bloomberg.com on YouTube or on the terminal. Two Wall street bulls, Tom Lee and Dan Ives are going against the grain of Wall street leveraging social media to bring in fresh inflows and outperformance in their ETFs. For more Bloomberg Cross Asset reporter Isabel Lee joins us. This is one of the most read stories on the Bloomberg Terminal and the website. It's not surprising two characters, mega tech bulls. But they've launched ETFs. Explain the basics, what we need to know about what they're up to. So these are two ETFs really stand out in a sea of 4,000, 4,200 ETFs in the US because they engineer a rare double performance which is outperformance and flows. Usually you outperform but you don't see flows. Usually you have flows but the performance isn't matched. So both of them have those two and the both of them also are really this big figures. Tom Lee has 500,000 followers on Twitter. Dan Ives has around 200,000. So they go straight to the retail investors and they go straight straight to them with their ideas. And guess what, these retail investors buy them up by the billions. Isabel. Their ideas go straight to a potential retail and institutional investor at the same time. Say Dan Ives comes on this show as a buy side and sell side analyst. He's coming on and trying to say I'm independent. And my view is that these companies are going to go higher. And he does think they're all going to go higher. He's to going are permeable. But what if we start to question valuations? What if at some point he goes negative on the idea of certain stocks? Does that damage the ETF inflows? How does he remain independent in this way? That's a good point, Caroline. And this is a new trend we're seeing that these prominent figures are launching their own etf. So both Tom Lee and Dan Ives have their own really strong base because of their research. They both just send out research every day. You get their notes multiple times a day if you pay as a client. And then they thought, you know what, why not let me wrap my ideas into this one big ETF so that my followers or my now investors can just buy those ETFs in one click. And that's the beauty of ETFs and one click you can really just purchase them. But to your point that is true because followers are loyal to them, they listen to their every call. But what if they now it's a question of whether there's going to be some self interest. That remains to be seen. I'm sure they practice fiduciary and they're doing what's best for their clients, their interest. But then it's really interesting because these big name launches from Roubini also he launched his own ETFs, even GMO, even Rick Reeder who's now in contention to Fed Chair, he has his own etf. So it's really a new wave and I think not all famous people when they launch our own ETFs, not all of them gain traction. But for them at least it's doing well. They are their own personal brands. Hopefully that's for up some picks real quick. But Dan Ives is charismatic just except explain to the those that don't know what he's like. Where do we begin with Dan? As every quote he has is quotable. He wears these colorful clothes, he's always in a cap, everyone is in black and white and he's just really this big, bright, colorful figure. Tom Lee is the same. They make this big audacious bets and it really is a sound bite that you will forever listen to. Interestingly, they both recently become chairs of Digital Asset treasury companies as well, so they seem to be in sync on certain areas of the market. Bloomberg's Isabella Great reporting and great story. Go read it. That does it from this edition of Bloomberg Tech Ed. Yeah, don't forget, check out the podcast. You know where to find it. It's on the Bloomberg terminal, it's online, it's on Apple, it's on Spotify, and it's on Iheart. What a week it's been from San Francisco and New York City. This is Bloomberg. Every business starts with an idea. How can you go from daydreamer to industry leader? Amazon Business accelerates your journey with smart business buying. Get everything you need to grow in one familiar place. From office supplies to IT essentials and maintenance tools. Amazon Business takes the buying experience you know and love from Amazon plus tools that help you save costs and make insights based decisions ready to bring your visions to life. Learn how@amazonbusiness.com so have you heard the story about the prescription plan? With savings automatically built in, it's where a family of any size can feel confident the cost of their medication won't hold them back. Go to CMK Co Stories to learn how CVS Caremark helps members save just by being members. That's CMK Co Stories. Hiscock Small Business Insurance knows there is no business like your business. Across America, over 600,000 small businesses, from accountants and architects to photographers and yoga instructors, look to Hiscox Insurance for protection. Find flexible coverage that adapts to the needs of your small business with a fast, easy online', @hiscox.com that's his ox.com there's no business like small business. Hiscox Small Business Insurance.
