US Considers Permits for Global Nvidia, AMD AI Chip Sales

Summary

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Bloomberg Tech – "US Considers Permits for Global Nvidia, AMD AI Chip Sales"

Date: March 6, 2026
Hosts: Caroline Hyde & Ed Ludlow

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Main Theme

This episode explores sweeping new U.S. regulations that could restrict worldwide exports of Nvidia and AMD AI chips, giving the U.S. Commerce Department unprecedented oversight on global AI infrastructure. The hosts and expert guests analyze the wide-ranging impact on technology, labor markets, geopolitics, and industrial policy—including reactions from global tech leaders, the outlook for U.S. chipmakers, changing employment patterns due to AI, and the mounting security concerns for AI data centers amid Middle East conflict.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. US Export Controls on AI Chips

• Overview of the Proposed Rules ([03:22]–[05:19])

  • New draft regulations would require licenses for AI chip exports to almost any country, regardless of whether the destination is geopolitically sensitive.
  • Licenses would be tiered: small shipments see lighter reviews, while large installations (over 200,000 Nvidia Blackwell equivalents) may require government-to-government negotiations.
  • Nuance: The Commerce Department insists this isn’t an outright export ban, emphasizing the rules are not country-based but set up the U.S. as a global "gatekeeper" for AI infrastructure.
  • Quote ([03:22]): "There is a license requirement for AI chips sent almost anywhere in the in the world... The US may ask nations to invest in AI within US borders." – Bloomberg Tech anchor

• Not Policy Shift for China—but Global Scope

  • Unlike the Biden administration’s earlier "diffusion" rule, these are not focused only on China, but could impact AI R&D in allied nations as well.

• Implications for Global Trade and Power

  • Chip licenses could become bargaining chips in international trade talks—a move expected to draw pushback from many countries.
  • Quote ([06:08]): "They just want control of what's happening on our next generation silicon at that 3 and 2 nanometer node... They’re just trying to get their arms around the whole situation that the US isn’t is in more of a power solution versus being ripped off globally." – Ted Mortensen, Tech Research MD

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2. Market & Industry Reaction

• Immediate Stock Market Impact ([02:43]–[07:24])

  • Semiconductor stocks took a hit; the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index declined for the second straight week, paralleling broader tech and equity weakness amid global turmoil and inflation worries.
  • Investors are increasingly shifting to "capital preservation"—reducing risk, raising cash, and rotating out of tech stocks.
  • Quote ([08:52]): "They need clarity... Institutional investors are looking at locking in gains on some, some really leadership stocks, building some more cash levels just to be more nimble. Buying from the fearful, selling to the needy." – Ted Mortensen

• Defensive Play in Defense Tech

  • Stocks like Palantir surged—up almost 13%—as defense-oriented tech is viewed as resilient amidst war and government data analytics needs.
  • Quote ([10:38]): "If you just connect the dots on our success in, in Iran is based upon Palantir being embedded in the IDF... and our agencies in relationship to our Department of War. This gives the war fighter...a real-time view of the battlefield." – Ted Mortensen

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3. AI’s Impact on the Labor Market

• Oracle Layoffs & AI’s Role ([13:34]–[15:03])

  • Oracle plans thousands of job cuts amid a cash crunch triggered by rapid AI data center expansion.
  • The workforce reduction reflects both cost-cutting and an ongoing shift to AI automation. Management teams now routinely reconsider headcount in light of what roles can be reduced via AI tools.
  • Quote ([14:22]): "I think every management team right now, everybody who has a P&L is being asked, hey, when you're doing your headcount planning, let's think about what roles we need less of." – Ted Mortensen
  • Nuance: Actual AI replacement is still partial—tools save time, perhaps reduce teams from 10 to 8, but don’t yet substitute for workers entirely.

• Structural Changes in Hiring ([15:04]–[16:22])

  • PagerDuty's CEO Jennifer Tejada describes a shift from "backfilling" to rethinking roles as AI enables new productivity models, focusing on impact and innovation over mere headcount replenishment.
  • Quote ([16:08]): "I'm not asking you to work more or harder…I'm asking you to embrace and leverage AI in service of competitive advantage." – Jennifer Tejada

• Labor Market Data: Is AI Displacement Visible? ([17:07]–[20:21])

  • Martha Gimmel (Yale Budget Lab) argues big AI-driven layoffs haven’t yet shown up in macro data—job losses are more linked to cyclical or sector-specific factors (like manufacturing).
  • Monitoring headlines and CEOs like Jack Dorsey citing AI for big staff cuts is interesting, but data doesn’t confirm a systemic shift yet.
  • Quote ([19:02]): "It's really important to separate out the vibes on AI in the labor market from what's happening in the data…it's not in the data yet." – Martha Gimmel

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4. Data Centers, Geopolitics, and Security

• AI Data Centers as Military/Economic Targets ([29:55]–[35:48])

  • As AI infrastructure booms, data centers are “soft targets” in active conflict zones (e.g., US-owned centers in the Gulf, vulnerable to drone/missile attacks).
  • Sam Winter-Levy (Carnegie Endowment) highlights the increasing cost and complexity of defending these assets, both physically and digitally.
  • Quote ([31:23]): "These data centers are filled with GPUs, they're very fragile. It's quite easy to take out a chiller...or a generator or transformer..." – Sam Winter Levy
  • US and allied countries may want critical clusters at home or in close allies, but data sovereignty and investment flows ensure data centers will be globally distributed, keeping risk high.

• Balancing Act in Gulf States

  • Despite risks, Gulf countries are set to remain major partners due to abundant capital, energy, and their own AI ambitions—underscoring unavoidable strategic partnerships but also heightened threats.
  • Quote ([32:42]): "The Gulf has huge ambitions in the air race...Data centers will be built, but governments and companies need much more robust resilience plans." – Sam Winter Levy

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5. Ground-level Effects: The 'AI Man Camps' Phenomenon

• Rural Data Center Construction + Housing Boom ([42:45]–[47:50])
  • To support the explosion of remote data centers, a temporary economy of “AI man camps” has emerged—large, self-contained worker camps in rural U.S. regions.
  • Companies like Target Hospitality repurpose assets from oil/gas booms to house thousands of data center builders.
  • Economic effects are mostly temporary; once built, most jobs vanish.
  • Quote ([43:04]): "Hotels fill right up. RV parks are completely full with workers...people are paying thousands of dollars a month just to rent RV spaces near construction sites." – Joe Lovinger (Bloomberg)
  • $700 billion in projects are in planning, with $160 billion underway—signaling massive, transient ripple effects in local labor and real estate markets.

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6. Supply Chain & Industry Responses

• Auto Industry Navigates Shocks & Shortages ([38:29]–[42:18])
  • Bosch CEO Stephan Harten discusses resilience lessons from previous chip crises and how ramping AI infrastructure may create critical shortages in both memory (for data centers) and industry tech (such as auto safety features).
  • Quote ([40:44]): "The ramp up of AI infrastructure is massive...there will be probably a shortage in certain components." – Stephan Harten

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Notable Quotes & Timestamps

• "[The draft rule] is not based on countries. However, there is a big role here that the government is playing as a gatekeeper."
  – Bloomberg Tech anchor ([03:22])

• "This gives the war fighter...the ability to see around corners, to see the battlefield in real time. And that's because of a lot of the Palantir software."
  – Ted Mortensen ([10:38])

• "You gain and lose jobs all the time...it's really important to separate out the vibes on AI in the labor market from what's happening in the data."
  – Martha Gimmel ([19:02])

• "Data centers are fundamentally soft targets....I think this attack should be a wake up call that all of these data centers need to think more seriously about physical attacks and not just cyber attacks."
  – Sam Winter Levy ([35:05])

• "Hotels fill right up. RV parks are completely full with workers...people are paying thousands of dollars a month just to rent RV spaces near construction sites."
  – Joe Lovinger, Bloomberg ([43:04])

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Important Segments & Timestamps

| Segment | Topic | Timestamp | |---------|-------|-----------| | AI Chip Export Controls Announced | [01:37]–[06:08] | | Industry Analysis: Impact on Tech, Investment, and Markets | [06:08]–[12:46] | | Oracle Layoffs & AI Labor Impacts | [13:34]–[16:22] | | Data on AI's Labor Market Impact | [17:07]–[21:19] | | Anthropic/Pentagon "Threat" Ruling | [26:27]–[29:55] | | Data Centers as Strategic Targets | [29:55]–[35:48] | | Bosch CEO: AI, Chips, and Auto Supply Chain | [38:15]–[42:18] | | 'AI Man Camps' & Rural Boom | [42:45]–[47:50] |

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Memorable Moments

• Anthropic vows legal fight vs. Pentagon's supplier risk designation ([26:27]–[29:55])
• Viral 'AI man camps' and the infrastructure boom’s strain on remote communities ([42:45]–[47:50])
• SoftBank reportedly seeks $40B bridge loan to fuel AI ambitions ([24:03]–[24:54])
• PagerDuty CEO: “I’m not asking you to work more... I’m asking you to embrace and leverage AI.” ([16:08])
• Stephan Harten, Bosch: "You want the functionality. You want the better automation of vehicles…making a driver just a better driver." ([41:45])

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Tone & Language

• Direct, data-driven, occasionally urgent given the intersection of technology, global security, and macroeconomics.
• Expert guests provide both analytical depth and accessible, real-world analogies for technical and geopolitical issues.

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Summary

This episode captures a watershed moment in the AI and tech industry, with the U.S. moving to control AI chip exports globally—not just against adversaries, but for all nations. The ripple effects touch everything: global trade, how and where data centers are built (and their new vulnerability as targets in conflict zones), market volatility, and the labor market as employers weigh when and how to replace jobs with AI—set against a backdrop of growing caution, and no clear evidence yet that AI is causing the feared employment shakeout. Notably, the episode punctuates giant shifts in both digital and physical infrastructure—rural America flooded with transient tech workers and new “company towns”—and the increasingly intricate interplay of AI, national security, and economic policy on a global stage.

Transcript

[Narrator/Announcer]

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[Host/Interviewer (possibly a Bloomberg Tech anchor)]

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[Narrator/Announcer]

Bloomberg audio studios podcasts radio news. Bloomberg Tech is live from coast to

[Caroline Hyde or Ed Ludlow (Bloomberg Tech anchors)]

coast with Caroline Hyde in New York and Ed Ludlow in San Francisco.

[Host/Interviewer (possibly a Bloomberg Tech anchor)]

This is Bloomberg Tech coming up, Bloomberg reports the U.S. commerce Department has drafted regulations restricting AI chip shipments anywhere in the world without American approval.

[Caroline Hyde or Ed Ludlow (Bloomberg Tech anchors)]

Plus, Oracle plans to cut thousands of jobs as it handles a cash crunch from a massive AI datacenter expansion effort.

[Host/Interviewer (possibly a Bloomberg Tech anchor)]

And the Pentagon has officially notified lawmakers that it has determined Anthropic and its products pose a risk to the US Supply chain.

[Caroline Hyde or Ed Ludlow (Bloomberg Tech anchors)]

Some extraordinary news on the private sector and indeed on the public markets right now. And we're seeing ourselves up by about 3/4% on the NASDAQ 100 coming off of our lows, but we're down on the week, the S&P 500 having its worst week since October of last year and in March. Part it's because of what's happening to oil prices. And we're in a sixth day of conflict with the Middle east, with Iran, and we're seeing oil up 6% at one point. We're now, of course, eclipsing $91 on the Brent on the global contract. All of this adding to inflationary pressure when we're seeing weakness in the labor market, nonfarm payroll, a surprise loss in jobs, no additions. We're also seeing, therefore, money coming out of some of those risk assets. Bitcoin off by 3.6% today. Ed, what are you looking at?

[Host/Interviewer (possibly a Bloomberg Tech anchor)]

Yeah, chip stocks are under pressure The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index is down in this session, down on the week and headed for two straight weeks of declines. For the first time since November. Bloomberg News is reporting that the Commerce Department has drafted new rules that would restrict US shipments of AI chips worldwide, giving Washington broad authority over whether other countries can build for facilities to train and run artificial intelligence models. That's all according to sources Bloomberg tech and industrial policy reporter Maggie Eastland joins us with the latest. Let's get into the content of those draft rules and what Bloomberg's reported. What do we need to know?

[Caroline Hyde or Ed Ludlow (Bloomberg Tech anchors)]

Of course. So as we've reported, there is a license requirement for AI chips sent almost anywhere in the in the world. Now whether or not these licenses will be handed out depends a lot on how many chips as compared to a Blackwell Nvidia Blackwell. How many of those chips do each does each end user want to purchase? And now on the higher end for end users wanting to purchase up to 200,000 that may actually require and the US may ask nations to invest in AI within US borders. So this opens up an opportunity for chip licenses to become a factor in global trade talks, something that I'm sure many a country would bristle at. Maggie, what's interesting is that the Commerce Department has responded and they say the draft rule isn't meant to function as an Nvidia export ban. Can you just give us the nuance of how the government has responded to your reporting? Right. So this response shows and tries to emphasize that this is not the same as the Biden administration and their diffusion rule. It's one thing is it is not based on countries. However, there is a big role here that the government is playing as a gatekeeper and whether or not this is more restrictive is ultimately going to depend on how the US decides to dole out these licenses. And it does have the leeway to be more or less strict with that.

[Host/Interviewer (possibly a Bloomberg Tech anchor)]

Maggie, an important point here is it doesn't necessarily change US Policy with regards to China right now you outlined that. But there seems to be like this tiered response if it's a small batch of chips for a small data center project, lighter review. But at the other end of the extreme in our reporting it seems to indicate that you have a nation state, country to country negotiation. If the US is going to allow the export of cutting edge accelerators

[Caroline Hyde or Ed Ludlow (Bloomberg Tech anchors)]

exactly as you say, for for any shipments over 200,000 Blackwell equivalents, there will have to be a nation to nation negotiation. It is sort of a tiered response. If it's under a thousand chips, that's going to be a lot easier to get approval. But again, as you work up the chain and want more and more chips, the US Is going to be asking for more in return. Maggie Eastland on what the US we understand is currently considering. We so appreciate it. Now let's stick with global tech news. Ted Mortensen is with us. He's bad managing director. He oversees technology research. Boy, is there a lot to be trying to digest as someone who analyzes tech right now. Just focus in on what potentially the US could be thinking about here. An overseeing of basically how Nvidia and AMD export to the rest of the world. Your reaction?

[Ted Mortensen (Technology Research Managing Director)]

I think it's a broader focus. It also let's face facts. I mean the Trump administration is providing a broad blanket not only on energy policy. Look what we've done in Venezuela, look what we're doing in Iran right now, but also on rare earths. This all feeds together in one big ecosystem. And I think they just want control of what's happening on our next generation silicon at that 3 and 2 nanometer node. This is one of the reasons why we've built eight fabs at TSM in Arizona. We have to control that technology specifically at that 2 nanometer node because that's where all the AI chip development is going. So I think they're just trying to get their arms around the whole situation that the US Isn't is in more of a power solution versus being ripped off globally.

[Caroline Hyde or Ed Ludlow (Bloomberg Tech anchors)]

A power solution first. I mean at the moment we're seeing a negative reaction to the stocks on the back of that story. In fact, very few stocks are in the green today and maybe Marvell and Broadcom outperform because of numbers. We see defense tech outperformed. Ted, what do you do in this current geopolitical moment of tension?

[Ted Mortensen (Technology Research Managing Director)]

So I'm on with some very big clients, you know, constantly, whether it be during the day or even at night lately during earnings. And I think what people are doing is we're kind of post last Saturday and there's not a lot of cycle experience. I mean I'm old, so I've seen pretty much all this. It doesn't really surprise me that much. But we're now in this, I would call it a capital preservation phase where when you, when you don't have a, you know, a clear picture of what could happen, whether it be on the commodity side, the rate environment, you tend to go to a capital capital preservation mode. And what I mean by that is, right, there's a lot of de risking going on in tech portfolios. And there's been some very violent moves between software and also semiconductors. And I think there's also some PMs that are quite frankly just moving to other sectors that are a little bit more def.

[Host/Interviewer (possibly a Bloomberg Tech anchor)]

So you know, Caroline outlined right at the top of the show the sort of trajectory of the NASDAQ 100. Right. I think on track for its, its worst week since October. Then I said chips are following a similar pattern back to back weekly declines for the first time since November. What seems a strange question, but what is the main catalyst in this market right now? What is it that your clients are saying is driving their psychology when you're on the phone with them?

[Ted Mortensen (Technology Research Managing Director)]

They need clarity. You know, everybody's looking at the 10 year. I mean it reversed down to the 412 range earlier in the day. Now it's back, last time I checked it at a 417 range. They're worried about a potential spike in rates. There's inflation everywhere in tech. Every single conference call I'm on and I listen to over 70 during earnings season. Everybody is passing on price. So I think the institutional investor is looking at locking in gains on some, some really leadership stocks, building some more cash levels just to be more nimble. Buying from the fearful, selling to the needy is a discussion I have almost every single conversation. And then the other things that portfolio managers are doing is they're upgrading their portfolio and this is a great opportunity when the markets are down to really look at these eight companies with unbelievable management teams, product cycles that move into agentic and free cash flow is king. And if you do a screen on those names, there's a bunch of tech companies that are way off their highs. And that's where, that's where we're doing most of the work.

[Host/Interviewer (possibly a Bloomberg Tech anchor)]

It's actually the s and P500. I think that's, that's having the rough week. Relative to the NASDAQ101 name that is having a very good week is Palantir. You know, it's up almost 13%. And that's like logical, right? Like Caroline was making the point, I think it was Monday, maybe Tuesday, that with everything that's happening with the war in Iran and indeed the back and forth between the Department of Defense, the Pentagon and AI providers that you'd expect that name to be higher. You know, you'd expect, expect it to be in the spotlight right now.

[Ted Mortensen (Technology Research Managing Director)]

It truly is one of these next generation companies that has been put in pretty much every single agency. They started with the army, but They've gone to the Space Force, the Navy, pretty much every single industry. And if you just connect the dots on our success in, in Iran is based upon Palantir being embedded in the idf, the Israeli Defense Force as well as all of our, pretty much I would assume all of our agencies in relationship to our Department of War. This gives the war fighter and you know, I flew for a lot of years and I feel so antiquated on what my new naval aviators have at their disposal. They can see around corners, they can see the battlefield in real time. And that's, that's really because of a lot of the Palantir software and their ability to, to really take on an immense amount of data and make sense of it.

[Caroline Hyde or Ed Ludlow (Bloomberg Tech anchors)]

I love hearing about that history and that understanding you have. Ted, can you therefore opine a little bit on how difficult it might be for them to unintine themselves? That's even a word with anthropic because Palantir has had a partnership with them. If we are seeing them forced out, is that going to be an issue for the business?

[Ted Mortensen (Technology Research Managing Director)]

I think it's, I think it's really political. I think at some point the, the Defense Department and you know, the government will need anthropic and they'll still find a way of somewhere in the middle. Same thing with open eye, open AI if you go back in the way back machine. I mean this has happened at Amazon, it's happened at Google, it's happened at Microsoft. We'll get there somehow. What I think every your viewers need to understand is the US Government specifically the Defense Department needs the best technology. And I think what we're using is kind of a strong arm tactic to get them back at the table and to get some to some middle ground.

[Host/Interviewer (possibly a Bloomberg Tech anchor)]

Ted Mortensen of BAD with a very close view of what's happening between technology and the world, the state of the world right now. Really appreciate it. Now coming up on the program, Oracle plans to axe thousands of roles as soon as this month. We're going to discuss what is behind that move and the Bloomberg reporting. This is Bloomberg Tech. Oracle is planning to cut thousands of jobs as it looks to manage a cash crunch driven by spending according to sources. Let's get the details of Bloomberg's Brody Ford who broke the story. Lots of detail in the report. The size, the scope, the when, what do we need to know?

[Ted Mortensen (Technology Research Managing Director)]

It costs a lot of money to build data centers.

[Sam Winter Levy (Carnegie Endowment for International Peace Fellow)]

Right.

[Ted Mortensen (Technology Research Managing Director)]

Oracle is betting its company on the fact that it will be an AI

[Host/Interviewer (possibly a Bloomberg Tech anchor)]

infrastructure provider and over the next Couple

[Ted Mortensen (Technology Research Managing Director)]

of years, that means negative cash flow. It's feeling a crunch, and so it's responding. Right. It's planning what appears to be one of the largest layoffs on record for the company. Thousands of workers impacted as soon as this month. And yeah, I mean, it is certainly

[Joe Lovinger (Bloomberg Reporter)]

a rough market out there for jobs

[Ted Mortensen (Technology Research Managing Director)]

in the tech industry.

[Joe Lovinger (Bloomberg Reporter)]

And this is just one more data point for that.

[Caroline Hyde or Ed Ludlow (Bloomberg Tech anchors)]

Brody. It needs money for AI and the infrastructure of it needs less people because of AI. And you say that the job cuts are going to be coming to those where I assume the latest, greatest agent is going to be able to perform for them.

[Host/Interviewer (possibly a Bloomberg Tech anchor)]

Exactly, yeah.

[Ted Mortensen (Technology Research Managing Director)]

I think every management team right now, everybody who has a piano is being asked, hey, when you're doing your headcount planning, let's think about what roles we need less of.

[Host/Interviewer (possibly a Bloomberg Tech anchor)]

We all know these AI tools aren't

[Joe Lovinger (Bloomberg Reporter)]

quite there in terms of replacing people,

[Ted Mortensen (Technology Research Managing Director)]

but in terms of time saving, in terms of, hey, maybe if you had a team of 10, 10 people, can we do it with eight people? From what we are hearing from sources, that is certainly a factor in this layoff, though at the end of the

[Joe Lovinger (Bloomberg Reporter)]

day, it's cost cutting. I think that's the big story, rather than it being a, you know, is

[Sam Winter Levy (Carnegie Endowment for International Peace Fellow)]

so amazing that we can replace people.

[Caroline Hyde or Ed Ludlow (Bloomberg Tech anchors)]

Yeah. The nuance on whether it's AI washing or not continues.

[Ted Mortensen (Technology Research Managing Director)]

Exactly.

[Caroline Hyde or Ed Ludlow (Bloomberg Tech anchors)]

Ford, thank you so much for joining us on that story. Look, another tech leader has been acknowledging the impact of AI on jobs. Pager duty CEO Jennifer Tahada. I spoke with her at Bloomberg's New Voices event earlier this week where she said AI's impact on productivity is changing the way her company fills vacant positions. Yeah, we've tried move the word backfill from our vocabulary because that, that sort of infers that you need something exactly like what you have before. And the market is moving so fast that by the time one person exits a role, you actually need to think completely differently about what the opportunity is to add capacity to your team in a new way. So are you seeing fewer people working at pager duty and how does that perhaps change the conversation you're having with employees? Well, I think employees understand that we're looking for each of them to demonstrate not only productivity and efficiency, but higher velocity in the innovation. And I stand up at town hall almost every month and say, I'm not asking you to work more, I'm not asking you to work harder. I'm asking to work differently. I'm asking you to embrace and leverage AI in service of competitive advantage. But Mostly in service of our customers. Right. And I think that's exciting for most employees.

[Host/Interviewer (possibly a Bloomberg Tech anchor)]

That was Pager Duty CEO Jennifer Tejada. Now, U.S. employers did unexpectedly slash 92,000 jobs last month, raising the unemployment rate to 4.4%. Those cuts are being blamed on strikes products at major health care providers and servers. Whether not I, how much longer could it be until AI does impact to the labor market? Martha Gimmel, executive director at the Yale Budget Lab has been doing research on labour market impact and joins us. We every week, month and quarter wait for the definitive data set that says AI is doing something here. Have you seen it yet? Will we see it soon?

[Narrator/Announcer]

I really haven't seen it yet. I think everyone is so focused on what the technology can do because the technology is so amazing that they're jumping straight to and therefore we're going to really quickly see these labor market impacts. I think it's really important to keep in mind there are a lot of things that affect deployment of technology, IT policies, economic pressures, demographic changes, liability concerns. And so the question isn't just what can the technology do, but how quickly is society going to and companies going to rearrange itself around it.

[Host/Interviewer (possibly a Bloomberg Tech anchor)]

The news is that, you know, the unexpected cut to jobs in February, that's the news. That's what's driving markets today. Within the data set. Did you see anything? Did you go deep and say, okay, what can I put from this into my own model?

[Narrator/Announcer]

Yeah, when you look at this data, I mean strikes did play a role, so we should see those jobs coming back. But even if you take the strikes out, about 50% of the job loss was in goods producing sectors as opposed to private service providing sectors. So things like manufacturing, manufacturing, construction, mining and logging, those are not sectors that we expect to be affected by AI in the same way. And for context, right. They were about 50% of the cuts, but they're only 16% of employment. And so that doesn't suggest that this is a I, it suggests that you maybe have impacts of tariffs plus just some general cyclical weakening.

[Caroline Hyde or Ed Ludlow (Bloomberg Tech anchors)]

Martha? Yeah, we saw in information about 11,000 jobs gone out of those 92,000. Can you tell us what data points we should look at then? If it is going to be about productivity gains, if it is going to be more about different areas that are starting to see the impact of an agent, for example.

[Narrator/Announcer]

Yeah, one of the things that I've been looking at is how quickly the just composition of jobs in our economy is changing because we gain and lose jobs all the time. That's a Pretty standard part of an economy. And so just because we lose jobs in one month doesn't mean that we should immediately assume that it's AI related job loss. But if we're losing jobs predominantly in one sector or a couple of sectors that are unusual, that look like AI, that's a signal that maybe this is starting to happen. And that's why, you know, at Budget Lab, we've been tracking this, you know, measure of occupational distribution every month, and it still isn't really flashing anything. I think it's really important to separate out the vibes on AI in the labor market from what's happening in the data. And, you know, I think you're just seeing broad agreement that it's not in the data yet. You just saw a report from Anthropic come out yesterday saying, yeah, we're really not seeing macroeconomic impacts here yet.

[Caroline Hyde or Ed Ludlow (Bloomberg Tech anchors)]

Vibes are one thing, but Jack Dorsey saying he's cutting half of his staff is a data point. And yes, we can say whether there's some air washing within it, but still there are executives saying, we are not backfilling, we are using AI. We are cutting half of our staff because we think is at a cusp where we can do more with it. Martha, when does that start to legion?

[Narrator/Announcer]

Do you think tracking CEO statements is not the ideal way to look at this? For a couple of reasons. Right. One is there's huge selection in who even makes a statement about layoffs. Your hardware store down the street is not issuing a statement every time they lay someone off. Their selection effects in whose statements get covered. Right. The statement from Jack Dorsey was very eye catching and so it got picked up. And also, frankly, you know, CEOs have incentives to talk about things in a certain way. Shareholders want to hear that they're making investments and driving productivity and they may not even have a perfect sense of what hiring would look like in the absence of AI. And so I do think it's a moment where, you know, yes, we should listen to, to people about what's going on. We should listen to CEOs, but it's really important to go back to the data and make sure we're taking a really data driven approach here rather than, you know, following the latest company announcement.

[Caroline Hyde or Ed Ludlow (Bloomberg Tech anchors)]

And that is why your data approach is so important. Some of the research you do is just great, go and read it. Labor market exposure. What do we know? For example, Martha Gimmel, executive director and co founder at the Yale Budget Lab, we appreciate you. Now, coming up, SoftBank in search of $40 billion to fuel its ambitions. More on that next. This is Bloomberg Tech.

[Narrator/Announcer]

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[Host/Interviewer (possibly a Bloomberg Tech anchor)]

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[Ted Mortensen (Technology Research Managing Director)]

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[Caroline Hyde or Ed Ludlow (Bloomberg Tech anchors)]

It's time now for talking tech. And first up, Robinhood raised $658 million for its closed end fund designed to give U.S. retail investors access to private companies. Robinhood CEO Vlad Tenev joined open interest. Just take a listen.

[Joe Lovinger (Bloomberg Reporter)]

Robinhood Ventures, a closed end fund listed on the NICE that invests in private companies. The idea is we raise the capital in an IPO and then we invest that capital in private companies. And so far we've got a portfolio of frontier names in their industries. You mentioned databricks or Mercur Revolut Ramp. Those are just some of the companies that are part of this portfolio.

[Caroline Hyde or Ed Ludlow (Bloomberg Tech anchors)]

Plus Uber. Well it has posted job listings that suggest the rideshare company is stepping up efforts to test a subscription offering for drivers and couriers around the world. Now the move understands scores a sharper focus on subscriptions as emerging competitors lure drivers with flat fee models and Softbank when it's eating up to $40 billion from banks to help finance its investment in OpenAI. Now that's according to sources the roughly 12 month bridge loan be underwritten by four lenders including JP Morgan Chase. SoftBank has been unloading assets in fact including its stake in Nvidia to bankroll its growing bet on OpenAI. But it is an interesting time to be wanting more banks to be syndicating debt at the moment exposed away because

[Host/Interviewer (possibly a Bloomberg Tech anchor)]

credit pressure is building on SoftBank in particular, but broadly a 12 month bridge loan. And remind yourself that $40 billion is their largest ever US denominated borrowing car, isn't it?

[Caroline Hyde or Ed Ludlow (Bloomberg Tech anchors)]

Also within that conversation, we're just hearing from Vlad Tenev and Robin Hood on one side, people still wanting access to private markets. But then we have today the news around blackrock and its private market market credit fund and having to say look, you can't keep taking money from at the moment. It's really extraordinary moves.

[Host/Interviewer (possibly a Bloomberg Tech anchor)]

Yeah, we've been on top of it all week. That credit story is not going away. Okay. Coming up, we're going to discuss the data center threats in the Middle east with Sam Winter Levy of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. That's next. It's half time. This is Bloomberg Tech. Welcome back to Bloomberg Tech. This is what what markets look like on Friday to end the week. There's a lot going on in the context of Bloomberg's reporting on the tech sector and the war in Iran. The Nasdaq 100 is off session lows, but down 8.10of a percent and bonds have kind of been wavering. You see the US 10 year yield at 4.414%. Interestingly, a lot of pressure on the NASDAQ 100 in the moment is coming from some of the mega cap names. I was talking with the Team Caro and the equities desk. Like what's going on? There is some kind of stabilization in memory pricing, for example. We know that there's a recalculation in recent days of capital expenditures that impact some of the hyperscalers. But you look at Apple matter, Tesla, Amazon, those are on a points basis the biggest drags right now and not that much in the news flow beyond. It's just a, I guess a volatile week, politically speaking. And as we went through a Ted, there's a lot that the market needs clarity on.

[Caroline Hyde or Ed Ludlow (Bloomberg Tech anchors)]

Yeah, let's talk about one of those stories, politically speaking. Anthropic vowed to legally contest a Pentagon decision that declared the company a US Supply chain threat, a designation typically reserved for foreign adversaries, capping off a very turbulent week in the air race. Bloomberg's Shree Ghafari joins us now for more on the unfolding saga that you have been at the forefront of reporting with for at least a week now. It was last week where we first saw, well, the explosive conversation around being deemed a supply chain risk. And now it's come in writing.

[Narrator/Announcer]

That's right. And you know, Dario Amadou, the CEO of Anthropic also put out a memo yesterday saying that he believes that the order is narrow in scope to the effect that it won't actually impact hopefully business with customers who are not at the government or working directly with the Pentagon. I think it's going to take a while to figure out exactly how customers react to this.

[Host/Interviewer (possibly a Bloomberg Tech anchor)]

Few places that we've looked over recent days. Interesting. There's the sensor tower data on uninstalls and downloads and there's the app stores and it's part of the Q and A newsletter. Right. We're going to look at this idea that there have been changes in Chat GPT, OpenAI's tool in terms of downloads and uninstalls and then Claude Anthropics. What are you seeing?

[Narrator/Announcer]

Yeah, so it's really interesting because Anthropic's cloud business has historically been more enterprise, especially in the past year. And now we're seeing this shift, the sort of consumer bump for the cloud app. And a lot of that is because some users agree with the company stance on pushing for restrictions on surveillance and autonomous weaponry in their negotiations with the Department of War. So now those gains are up to a million downloads a day. Yesterday the company was saying. That being said, ChatGPT by far has a large, you know, majority of the market share here. It's going to take a lot of sustained growth at that level for Anthropic to even come close to ChatGPT on the consumer side. But consumer support, any kind of support, is much needed for Anthropic right now. So that is an interesting bump in

[Caroline Hyde or Ed Ludlow (Bloomberg Tech anchors)]

terms of just where they stand in consumer penetration. It is much smaller than Open Air. More broadly, how much of a concern is it to Anthropic that the enterprise part of the business could be impacted if they are asked uninstalled. As you said, there is is clarification that really it wouldn't extend to too many parts of of the other companies that use Claude only with Pentagon contracts.

[Narrator/Announcer]

That's right. This is the, you know, million billion, multibillion dollar question. Right. Anthropic has grown very rapidly in the past year. It's now at a reported 19 billion in run rate revenue. However, majority of that does come from enterprise contracts. So if they are enterprise business, so if they are listed losing marquee customers over this who may also have dealings themselves with the Pentagon and are worried about the implications of this supplier risk designation that could be devastating to anthropic. So that is a big question is how, why does the supplier risk designation really go? Will anthropics end up legally challenging it and is this issue resolved? I think that's going to be the question. To watch for customers, Bloomberg.

[Host/Interviewer (possibly a Bloomberg Tech anchor)]

Shereen Ghaffari, thank you very much. And as tensions rise between Washington and leading AI firms, the global stakes are growing as well. Data centers, the backbone of artificial intelligence, have now emerged as potential targets in the escalating conflict in the Middle East. Let's bring in Sam Winter Levy, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace Fellow. 24 hours ago, we went to our correspondent in the Emir region and went to, through the specific sites that have been targeted, the reason why. And just for the audience, Amazon owns and operates some of those facilities. You've had time to do your own research and study of the data. How does this fit in, this idea that data centers are a target in the context of a war in Iran and a conflict between the United States and Iran?

[G]

Sure.

[Sam Winter Levy (Carnegie Endowment for International Peace Fellow)]

Yeah. So thanks so much for having me. Data centers are becoming increasingly central to a very broad range of economic life, national security activities. And they are fundamentally soft targets. So for the Iranians looking for targets that they could hit, that could cause disruption, could try to broaden the conflict, could bring the conflict home to the United States, targeting a data center that is operated by a US Company that's a symbol of US Gulf cooperation, it becomes quite an appealing target given how easy they are to hit with a drone, with a barrage of missile strikes, given how kind of fragile and vulnerable these facilities are vulnerable.

[Host/Interviewer (possibly a Bloomberg Tech anchor)]

How do you protect a data center in this, in this case?

[Sam Winter Levy (Carnegie Endowment for International Peace Fellow)]

Sure. So it's hard. So fundamentally, these data centers are filled with GPUs, they're very fragile. It's quite easy to take out a chiller, which are these things that keep the data centers cool, keep the servers cool, or to take out a generator or the transformers that provide electronic electricity to the data center. There are things you can do. You can use more reinforced concrete, you can try to harm the facilities. You can use air defense systems, anti drone devices, jamming systems, anti, anti, anti missile systems. But all of this drives up the costs of building a data center. And none of this will guarantee security against a kind of swarm of cheap drones. And it's very, very expensive to protect against these sorts of cheap strikes. So there are things you can do to protect them. I think historically, these companies and the government's been much more focused on protecting data centers from cyber attacks, protecting them from trespasses, but much less focused on strikes from drones or from missiles, which you know, is an inevitable risk, I think, to building expensive infrastructure in a region where drones and missile strikes are unfortunately a real, a real risk to worry about.

[Caroline Hyde or Ed Ludlow (Bloomberg Tech anchors)]

And you saw this risk, you wrote about it in July in an opinion column, really saying that the Gulf is not a place to be building out these data centers. SAM but also the Gulf is the place longer term with more abundant energy, and the Gulf is the place that also needs AI for its own citizens. So what do they do?

[Sam Winter Levy (Carnegie Endowment for International Peace Fellow)]

Yes. So the Gulf has huge ambitions in the air race and they're very appealing partners for the United States for many reasons. Energy, capital, all the things you mentioned. So I think it's inevitable that data centers are going to be built out in the region. I think this underscores the risks of building the biggest computing clusters, that the most critical infrastructure. I think that the United States should think very carefully about where it wants to cite that sort of infrastructure. But some degree of datacenter construction is inevitable in the Gulf. But I think governments need to think, governments and the companies that operate the data centers need to think much more carefully about their resilience plans, their redundancy plans, how to protect them from these sorts of physical risks. Because as you know, as you said, this was a foreseeable risk. These targets are soft. The more they become symbols of technological might, the more they become central to economic life, the more appealing they become as targets for non state actors or for hostile states that want to cause disruption.

[Caroline Hyde or Ed Ludlow (Bloomberg Tech anchors)]

Okay, There is a lot that goes into a decision as to where to put a data center, not only about the power that's accessible, the water, but the people and the labor and the cost. SAM Therefore, though, with your, with your Carnegie Endowment International International Peace hat on, where should these be built from a US Perspective?

[Sam Winter Levy (Carnegie Endowment for International Peace Fellow)]

So I think these data centers are going to be built all over the world. I think we should be building them all over the world. I think for the biggest, most important, most critical computing clusters, the United States should be thinking carefully about citing them in close US Allies, NATO states within the United States itself, areas where they can be kind of protected from attacks or, or whether it can be more easily protected from attacks. That's not to say that we shouldn't be building big facilities in the Gulf too, but probably not our most critical computing clusters. And I would, I would also say that these drone strikes do also underscore that data centers all over the world could be a threat. So even a datacenter in Europe could well be targeted by Russian sabotage, for example. You know, these are, these are fragile sites.

[Host/Interviewer (possibly a Bloomberg Tech anchor)]

Wherever they're sound. You know the argument the Gulf is not the place to build the world's infrastructure. The reality is that is exactly where they're building the world's infrastructure and it's where the capital is coming from and it's where in video and AMD have deals to send their chips and you have capital flowing from the Gulf into the United States to fund infrastructure products projects in the United States. I mean, I welcome any response to that reality that you have.

[Sam Winter Levy (Carnegie Endowment for International Peace Fellow)]

Yes, I think, you know, as I said, I think that is the reality to some extent. The question is to what extent we, we go forward with these types of projects. You know, it remains to be seen what this will look like after this conflict. I think it's certainly going to drive up insurance premiums. It may make it harder to attract engineering talent to build out these data centers. I think this won't make the UAE or the Saudi Arabia rethink their plans to any great extent, but I think it will complicate those plans. I think, you know, it should make the US Government much more cautious about where it's its most critical data centers. But again, as I said, data centers are going to be built everywhere. I think this attack should be a wake up call that all of these data centers need to think much more seriously about physical attacks and not just cyber attacks, digital disruptions, natural disasters.

[Caroline Hyde or Ed Ludlow (Bloomberg Tech anchors)]

A wake up call you've been trying to give for at least six months now. Sam Winter Levy, we appreciate your time of Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Coming up, how are supply chain risks impacting the world's largest automotive supplier? You're going to hear from the Bosch CEO now. Stefan Herten. That's next is Bloomberg Tech.

[Host/Interviewer (possibly a Bloomberg Tech anchor)]

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[Ted Mortensen (Technology Research Managing Director)]

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[Host/Interviewer (possibly a Bloomberg Tech anchor)]

The conflict in the Middle east is in its seventh day and with President Trump insisting on unconditional surrender from Iran, concerns about the impact on global supply chains are rising. I spoke with Bosch CEO Stephen Haughton about what that's meant for the automotive industry.

[G]

So far We've seen that EVs have heard that first wave and that was not as big as we all expected. Especially in the US we saw less demand than we actually were hoping for. So now a second wave comes in with with still EVs but also plug in hybrid vehicles or range extender vehicles. That's a very interesting technology which you also see in China. So very much all work is now focused on this combination of electric vehicle technology and engine technology. And these engine technology technology is a modern engine technology with a differentiated engine. So Bosch is doing this work because we have kept our capability in engine work ices and we can combine these two and do the plug in and hybrid vehicles very important. So I expect actually demand for these kind of vehicles to be rising quickly because they are more fuel efficient and same time they have the range which you want to have and you can still pull a boat or have a heavy vehicle which is practically of use for many people.

[Host/Interviewer (possibly a Bloomberg Tech anchor)]

But the situation with the war in Iran has any impact or bearing on that?

[G]

Well, I think people will be sensitive always. Now a Bit more on what gas prices are, how much they have to spend for the vehicle, what's the vehicle use, and probably this plug in hybrid vehicles or hybrid vehicles in total with a certain electrical range which is really useful. So you can drive electrically for a certain range and then you have to switch over to gasoline. This is something which is for the market. The optimal solution as of now, it looks like it. And obviously people becoming more sensitive about gasoline prices means they will tend more, not go from a pure ICE vehicle more to a combined SO hybrid vehicle or even a full electric vehicle, that's for sure.

[Host/Interviewer (possibly a Bloomberg Tech anchor)]

We started this conversation with semiconductors. You talk about the situation with the start of the year, but also some parallels with the COVID era and the chip shock. The chip crisis. Is this war in Iran different? Do you see there being a similar level of impact on semiconductor supply or bottleneck? And where, where are you most focused within the realm of silicon?

[G]

On silicon, I'm more watching the I build up because the I build up, for example, demands a high amount of rams. Right. So. And I also observe that because the same time we are looking at the chip supply for, for all applications we do, but at the same time we are also applying AI in a massive volume. So. Right, that's a very important thing to monitor. These chips are used in AI data centers. To build the AI, we need to implement solutions like accident prevention in cars. And that's the business cases which also I need. So yes, it is a balance. And yes, there will be probably a shortage in certain components because the ramp up of AI infrastructure is massive. On the other hand, this infrastructure is used also in product we make, so is used in household appliances and power tools in carbon cars. And that's an important story to go forward.

[Host/Interviewer (possibly a Bloomberg Tech anchor)]

Is there some panic right now in trying to secure memory in particular?

[G]

No, I wouldn't say there is panic. It's something we know. We have seen more severe chip crisis some years ago. Right. But it's something obviously you need to look at because you also want the functionality, right? You want the functionality. You want the better automation of vehicles. You want the better response, assisted driving, because that's safer, it's better than just human driving. So also in the automation, you see probably both. You see the full automation, like in the ev. The full ev, Right. But you see also the hybrid, which is the massive assisted automation, making a driver just a better driver.

[Caroline Hyde or Ed Ludlow (Bloomberg Tech anchors)]

And that's based on AI Bosch CEO there, Stefan Harting. Coming up, a massive boom in data centers is driving demand for housing and amenities in remote parts of the country. We'll talk about the state that's on demand. Simulated golf. This is Bloomberg Tech.

[Host/Interviewer (possibly a Bloomberg Tech anchor)]

Construction of data centers has led to increased competition for workers in areas with limited housing and amenities.

[Sam Winter Levy (Carnegie Endowment for International Peace Fellow)]

Q.

[Host/Interviewer (possibly a Bloomberg Tech anchor)]

The rise of so called AI man camps. Take a listen to power. The boom in data center building companies are heading far outside of Silicon Valley and cities in general.

[Joe Lovinger (Bloomberg Reporter)]

We're starting to see some pushback from cities where residents are kind of concerned about what living near a data center might mean for their property values and for their way of life. We're seeing projects push out further into rural stretches of places like Texas and Louisiana because you can get much cheaper land out there and you can also find municipalities that are more more willing to work with you when you need to negotiate things like power arrangements or zoning changes. While the AI companies are duking it out to figure out whose model will win, there are these other companies that see opportunity just in the build out itself. There is a huge demand to build data centers as quickly as they can, so housing becomes a big bottleneck. Most of these places that these projects are getting built now just do not have the infrastructure that they need for this. Hotels fill right up. RV park parks are completely full with workers. All of a sudden there's a line at the grocery store or at the gas pump. We have a lot of these sort of single lane county roads, and they're not built for rows and rows of heavy duty trucks driving on them all day. And so you get roads kind of deteriorating. People are paying thousands of dollars a month just to rent RV spaces near construction sites. We're seeing a wide range of companies get into this, all the way from wily locals that pitch together a little bit of land and sell the RV spots, all the way up to major publicly traded corporations helping house workers they've helped with oil and gas and the shale boom. If you look at it from above, it looks like an Excel spreadsheet cut out of the middle of farmland. You get this paved surface where you have rows and rows of gray roofs and temporary housing. They'll have their own toilet or they'll have their own sink. They always have wi fi so that you can make video calls to family back home. And then there will be a shared communal kind of dining setup. They place so much emphasis on the food, not only because these guys are working so hard all day that they need the calories, but also because it's an easy way to attract workers when there's such competition for them. We'll also see a Lot of amenity space. These are workers that are spending 15, 16 hours a day doing manual labor. You know, I figured when they got home they'd want to go to sleep, but apparently there are often gyms so they can get workouts in.

[Caroline Hyde or Ed Ludlow (Bloomberg Tech anchors)]

And you can see the rest of the full story from Bloomberg Originals on our website, on YouTube or the terminal. And we want to get more, more on this story now, the driving force and the impact of these datacenter camps. Bloomberg's Joe Reporter. Bloomberg's Reporter we were just seeing you there in the Originals piece. And Joe, talk to us about some of the companies that are actually going to be thriving in this moment, the ones that are actually doing the building of. Because people, there's a great quote in your story. People don't want to be basically sleeping in their trailer.

[Joe Lovinger (Bloomberg Reporter)]

That's right. Thank you for having me. Well, we're seeing companies ranging all the way from, from smaller local companies that have been working on, you know, oil fields all the way up to publicly traded corporations where they're using the same assets that they were for immigration facilities or for major drilling projects during the shale boom. And they're using these assets now to build out these man camps. And so these are companies like Target Hospitality or Civia, and what they're able to do is reallocate their resources. You know, until recently, oil was not priced very, very lucratively, so drilling had kind of declined. So this presented a new opportunity with all of these projects, especially as they're pushing out further into rural Texas, rural Louisiana, places that just, you know, you show up in a place like Dickens county, which I wrote about in the story, you know, you'll find a couple of restaurants, you might find a motel, but it's just not nearly enough for a 1500 man workforce that's being brought in to build these centers.

[Host/Interviewer (possibly a Bloomberg Tech anchor)]

At a more macro level, the data is quite compelling. What the story is here, right? Jobs, growth and the data center build out. Zoom out a bit. You know, what is direction is this heading in at scale? Right.

[Joe Lovinger (Bloomberg Reporter)]

We've seen a state like Texas, for example. I mean, if you talk to the leaders, if you talk to the hyperscalers, they're very bullish on the opportunity for building data centers in Texas. There is abundant land here, there's abundant energy. And Texas leaders see this as an opportunity to overtake Virginia even in the data center space. So, you know, Bloomberg Intelligence estimates that there's $700 billion worth of projects that are just in the planning stage right now. And I don't need to tell you, artificial intelligence, it's growing at a pace that really is hard to keep, you know, keep tabs on. So these companies that I've spoken with, you know, they see a very, very high ceiling for, for where this build out can go.

[Caroline Hyde or Ed Ludlow (Bloomberg Tech anchors)]

I mean the number Bloomberg Intelligence saying $700 billion worth of projects in the planning stage, 160 billion already underway. But Joe, the word camps kind of says it all in that these aren't permanent housing, briefly, it's not long term jobs.

[Joe Lovinger (Bloomberg Reporter)]

That's right. And when you speak with local officials, even, even in a place like Dickens county, that, that has not seen a project nearly of this scale, they're aware that these jobs are not going to stick around forever and that while you might have some people that stick around to work on the data center once it's built there, most of them are going to have to get out of town. So, you know, it's temporary.

[Host/Interviewer (possibly a Bloomberg Tech anchor)]

Bloomberg's Joe Lovinger, great reporting in video, in print. Great to have you on the program.

[Sam Winter Levy (Carnegie Endowment for International Peace Fellow)]

Car.

[Caroline Hyde or Ed Ludlow (Bloomberg Tech anchors)]

Yeah, that does it for an extraordinary week on Bloomberg Tech.

[Host/Interviewer (possibly a Bloomberg Tech anchor)]

Yeah, a lot to recap, do it on the podcast. You know where to find it. It's all on the screen there. But Spotify, Iheart and Apple. This is Bloomberg Tech.

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